FishDuck’s Special B1G Championship Game Analysis

[Charles Fischer]

Most analysts feel that Oregon is the more complete team, but Penn State could still pull off the win if Oregon, 1) gets stopped in the Red Zone as has happened a few inopportune times this year. 

 

A second element that has to go the ‘Lions way is ball-controlling the LOS, and preventing Oregon from very many possessions. Throw in some turnovers as the PSU defense is prone to creating, and a win for the men in white could happen. Their pass rush is the fastest in America getting to the quarterbacks in just a tick over two seconds according to Pro Football Focus. (PFF)

 

The matchup of Oregon’s heralded offensive tackles versus their edge rushers is fascinating in itself, as Abdul Carter, No. 11, is considered the No. 1 Edge Rusher in the nation and a top-5 pick in the NFL Draft. He and defensive end Dennis Sutton disrupt passing games, as the Penn State defense likes to go with “man” pass defense in the secondary. This allows the ‘Lions to crowd the box to stuff the run game, and with their elite athletes…it works.

 

 

Historically, when the PSU offense plays a tough opposing defense, they don’t score as much. Against Ohio State, they only scored two field goals on offense, although that is because the Buckeyes had two goal line stands that prevented touchdowns. Their offense is more predictable than most teams, and should allow for a better defensive game-plan by DC Tosh Lupoi.

 

Penn State’s superlative tight end, Tyler Warren has twice the catches of any other receiver on their team, thus it will be interesting to see who is matched up with him. I’m thinking that in obvious passing situations, we will see bracket coverage with a linebacker like Devon Jackson, and a safety over-the-top. Stopping Warren is a must, and if done will shut down the PSU offense.

 

Penn State has an injury at offensive tackle, and the replacement is adequate, but holding off Burch and Uiagalelei will be difficult. The real weakness of the entire PSU team is at Wide Receiver, as they simply do not get much separation and cannot be counted upon. Thus, I could see Oregon going with man-free, with man coverage on the WRs, and an extra safety on Warren?

 

The running game for Penn State is not going to go as well against Oregon’s interior defensive line, as stopping the run is the Ducks primary goal. With an Oregon lead, the PSU offense is not built for massive catchup unless they turn to some new trick plays, as we saw in the USC game. As long as Warren is kept to a reasonable number of receptions, I do not see Penn State scoring more than 20 points against this Duck defense.

 

 

Interesting fact: only Texas and Oregon defenses are in the top ten in the nation for grades by PFF for both defensive line grades, and linebacker grades. The nation is about to become acquainted with the Lanning/Lupoi defense that, due to Oregon’s long-term reputation for offense, is about to be discovered. PFF also gives the PSU offensive line a ranking of only 57th in the nation, and that makes going up against Burch, Harmon, Caldwell and Uiagalelei that much more difficult.

 

In my view, there are two major components that will lead Oregon to victory, and the first one is the playing surface. If they were playing on grass outside in the cold winter temperatures, then it would favor Penn State. But Lucas Oil Field is indoor, on fast turf like our indoor Practice facility next to Autzen. I do not see ‘Lion defenders keeping up with Oregon’s speed, especially at receiver.

 

The second component is how PSU likes to play “man” pass defense, and with one starting corner out….Tez, Evan, and Traeshon will thrive against a “man” defense as shown against Ohio State. However, an even bigger advantage comes with how Stein likes to throw to our running backs who catch extremely well.

 

I believe that both Jordan James and Noah Whittington will burn the ‘Lion linebackers badly, especially considering this is a base element of Oregon’s passing attack. This is a GREAT matchup in our passing game, IMHO, if our offensive tackles can win against the PSU pass rush the majority of the time.

 

 

The biggest difference is going to be at wide receiver, and I expect to see Oregon begin to take the lid off the passing offense. Sure, we scored a couple against Washington and others, but Stewart can do double-moves and get open all day. Throw in Tez for third-down conversions, along with a rested team? Oregon is poised to take off!  

 

My score prediction will appear in our OBD Prediction contest, although most say it will be a six or seven point Oregon victory. Even a number of PSU media pundits admitted that Oregon has a few more weapons, but our young men need to play their best, and get a lead as soon as possible.

 

What can you add?

 

[30Duck]

I have nightmares about what TE's have done to Duck D's in the past, but this D won't let that happen. It sems like whatever Penn State can bring, Oregon can match up with, whereas Pen State doesn't have the weaponry that Oregon has, and will really be in trouble if OBD gets up early. 

 

No doubt, and I don't think this is a problem unique to the Ducks; it's better to just take it in for 6 than to get stopped in the red zone, particularly when your offense does get lots of explosion plays. Ferg doesn't have stats like Warren and a big reason is because he isn't the number 1 target. This is where Oregon has the biggest advantage. 

[Charles Fischer]

There is a rumor that Oregon may use the JUCO transfer, the new corner who is an athletic freak.  He is 6'4" and can jump through the roof.  He had a pick already this year against Illinois in limited reps, and he might have the bulk, length and speed to help shut down Warren.  

 

He's in front, with a safety bracketed behind?

 

Sione Laulea No. 13

 

[Notalot]

The D has to prevent RB’s Singleton and-or Allen from going off. Singleton averages 6+ yards per carry.

 

Both are big strong runners requiring tacklers to wrap them up.

[Drake]

I look at the offensive stats that Oregon put up against tOSU, and Michigan, two of the stronger defenses in the BIG, and it looks like our offense rises to the occasion. 
 

The offense had 496 yards against the bucknuts, and 470 yards on the angry weasels. 
 

If DG has an above average day we win by a comfortable margin, on an average day, then the game probably stays close. 

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 12/5/2024 at 8:29 PM, Drake said:

I look at the offensive stats that Oregon put up against tOSU, and Michigan, two of the stronger defenses in the BIG, and it looks like our offense rises to the occasion. 

Oregon put the most points on both teams whose defenses had not allowed that much prior to playing the Ducks!

 

[David Marsh]

On 12/5/2024 at 7:03 PM, Charles Fischer said:

There is a rumor that Oregon may use the JUCO transfer, the new corner who is an athletic freak.  He is 6'4" and can jump through the roof.  He had a pick already this year against Illinois in limited reps, and he might have the bulk, length and speed to help shut down Warren.  

 

He's in front, with a safety bracketed behind?

 

Sione Laulea No. 13

 

He's been flagged a couple times this year in being handsy. 

 

But no flag in his last appearance. 

 

I think he hasn't hit the rotation at this point mostly due to wanting to redshirt him as well, if he has one. JUCOs and eligibility tend to be all over the place as it is. 

[David Marsh]

Other thing... 

 

This would be our second game in a row after a bye. 

 

PSU is on game 7. 

 

Until this year I've never counted weeks since the last bye as much of a factor. But what is clear is that by games 7 and 8 our Ducks weren't playing as well. 

 

DG also gets the ball out around 2.5 seconds on average. It'll be close with this pass rush but I think if he's in rythum they can't touch him. 

 

Still expecting him to get sacked a couple times. 

[Solar]

Penn State's offense was still clicking last week so I don't expect them to perform too badly from a concentration perspective, but you never know. A tough defense when you start feeling fatigued isn't gonna be good for them

 

I think the second game after a bye week is probably the sweet spot. We are really healthy and rested, but also not rusty.

 

3 time zones isn't great. That's the biggest thing against us but didn't hurt too much against Purdue.

 

Penn State should have a massive benefit of fans being within driving distance and a bigger deal to them as something they haven't been able to participate in since forever, while for us we are good win or lose with way more to play for than this game.

 

I do expect our defense to win this game. It'll be a great showing for PSU if they get to 17 points in offense.

 

We could struggle a bit on O if we get behind the chains from sacks or flags, but having Tez back will help with that immensely.

[Jon Joseph]

What can I add to the great article and comments - NADA!

 

Ducks arrived in Indy a day earlier than usual due to press obligations. PSU will have the majority of fans; so did Michigan, with many more fans than PSU will have in Indy. I think Dan and the team feed off of Us vs. Them. 

 

Paranoia strikes deep. This is OBD's shot for a B1G Trifecta. I'm still PO'd about how B1G refs called the BCS Champ Game. Including the B1G review folks. Will the new Duck on the Block get a fair shake? 

 

I am happy that CBS is doing the game. Nessler and Danielson are pros who focus on the game, and not on whatever bee is buzzing in their bonnet. SEE: Gus Johnson. 

 

SPANK FRANK. MAKE HIS 'BIG GAME" RECORD MORE STANK! POUND PsU!

 

 

[Haywarduck]

Comparing games against opponents, and looking at games where PSU had to travel, the game favors Oregon. The one area which can swing a game is turnovers. Oregon has to take care of the ball.

 

The fun senseless stat is the last time we played a team with the initials PSU we hung 80 points on them! GO DUCKS!

[QuackyQuack]

On 12/5/2024 at 10:11 PM, David Marsh said:

Other thing... 

 

This would be our second game in a row after a bye. 

 

PSU is on game 7. 

 

Until this year I've never counted weeks since the last bye as much of a factor. But what is clear is that by games 7 and 8 our Ducks weren't playing as well. 

I don't think this is being talked about enough. We all saw it with our own eyes what game 7 and 8 looked like. I expect this to play a very big factor.

 

Also - as mentioned above. It will be interesting to see if rotations are a little different moving forward now that redshirt restrictions do not come into play. Will we see some players that we havent seen that much throughout the year? Sione? Dink at RB? Who else? 

Edited December 6 by QuackyQuack

[idontrollonshobbas]

I think PSU will have a lot of incentive to keep a new kid on the block from winning their inaugural B1G championship.  Franklin will bring the tradition angle as motivation.....our PR savvy, snazzy unis and the "gimmicky offense" meme will be employed to wind up the Nittany Lions.

 

That, plus a big crowd and the time difference will keep it close early.  The Ducks need to be offensively efficient in the first half, limit turnovers and penalties, turn yards into points.  The second half is when the Ducks will pull away.

[30Duck]

On 12/6/2024 at 7:31 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Gus Johnson.

The art of calling a game is to be like Vin Scully, Verne Lundquist, Al Michaels, Keith Jackson. The game is the important thing, NOT YOU!!!

[Jon Joseph]

PSU last altered its uniform design in 2017 when it went back to more of an Old School look.

 

This is New School + Unis vs. As Old School as you can get (except for Illinois vs. Michigan this season.) 

 

OBD made a splash in Indy during B1G media days and the New School Unis will flash by PsU like racing machines circling the Brick Yard.

 

SPANK FRANK!

[DUCati855]

Spot on Charles!

 

I feel confident in this game. PSU will not keep up on the offensive side. I do not see them scoring more than twice. Our 3's and 4's will not be coming in during the 4th like they did with UW. So no points in garbage time.

 

Our passing game will be used heavily and will eventually open up our running game. Ducks will score in the high 30's... PSU will not be anywhere close to that.

 

Go Ducks!... and as Jon says: Spank Frank.

 

 

[SmithRiverDuck]

I would think that PSU (eastern version) is using plenty of the film from the game against the redheaded cheese heads. It's true that Wisconsin had an excellent defensive game plan. 

 

But being the eighth game, as has been discussed above, and having the SECOND most intimidating crowd in the B1G also played a large roll in that game. Luckily, we jumped around and I don't think it'll be as helpful as PU State thinks.

 

Speaking of jumping around.  Can the Ducks vs Them video series win an Emmy? Oscar? Something?  They are so awesome! Absolute marketing gold!

 

Here's how effective they are:  The theme for the Michigan game was Gladiator with the thumbs down sign being prevalent.  Fast forward to the video of the Wisconsin game while we are losing, and a lot of their crowd are doing the thumbs down sign. It ain't just us Ducks watching these videos!

 

 

[Mike West]

On 12/5/2024 at 7:51 PM, Notalot said:

The D has to prevent RB’s Singleton and-or Allen from going off. Singleton averages 6+ yards per carry.

 

Both are big strong runners requiring tacklers to wrap them up.

Singleton also does a really good job catching passes for nice gains. 

 

That's so I was going to add to FishDuck's analysis.  Keep Singleton from catching passes and you shut down half of their passing game.

[woundedknees]

Spanking Frankly, I'm ready for a good, clean, DUCK game!

[Dave23]

I would like to see some big shots down field to Stewart as I don't think they have anyone who can hang with him. If OBD can get up a couple of TD's it's going to be very hard for PSU to come back from.

[Charles Fischer]

Yep, that’s what I wrote as well.

[Notalot]

On 12/5/2024 at 10:51 PM, Notalot said:

The D has to prevent RB’s Singleton and-or Allen from going off. Singleton averages 6+ yards per carry.

 

Both are big strong runners requiring tacklers to wrap them up.

Franklin:

we rushed 292 yards today on them. Kaytron averaged 8.9 yards per carry and Nick Singleton averaged 10.5. Both went over 100 yards.