Can OBD Win IT All in 2026?

[Jon Joseph]

OBD will be a contender.

 

 

Can Oregon Ducks Win National Championship in 2026? Schedule Analysis, Prediction

WWW.SI.COM

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EUGENE – The Oregon Ducks’ hopes of securing a National Championship ended after a 41-21 loss to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Ducks coach Dan Lanning led Oregon

[30Duck]

No.2? In the country? Love the enthusiasm. But No.2 in the B1G is optimistic for me. Gabriel is gone, Tez is gone. The OL is not going to be better next season. The DL won't be better, the secondary won't be better, LB's? I really don't understand how expectations for an improvement on this season is likely. 

[VegasDuck]

On 1/4/2025 at 12:22 PM, 30Duck said:

No.2? In the country? Love the enthusiasm. But No.2 in the B1G is optimistic for me. Gabriel is gone, Tez is gone. The OL is not going to be better next season. The DL won't be better, the secondary won't be better, LB's? I really don't understand how expectations for an improvement on this season is likely. 

Transfer portal can fix many things. 

[OregonDucks]

I could be completely wrong but 2025-26 feels like more of a “rebuilding year” to me. We lose a ton of starters from the Rose Bowl roster and might be breaking in a talented, but younger QB.
 

Hopefully we still are good enough to earn a playoff spot next year.

[VegasDuck]

Maybe. I think a new QB with some height and better arm strength will go a long ways. Was never impressed with Gabriel. Not sure if it was all him or this dink-and-dunk offensive system. I think the talent will be there but not too sure about the coaching.

[OregonDucks]

On 1/4/2025 at 4:45 PM, VegasDuck said:

Maybe. I think a new QB with some height and better arm strength will go a long ways. Was never impressed with Gabriel. Not sure if it was all him or this dink-and-dunk offensive system. I think the talent will be there but not to sure about the coaching.

That’s a lot of pressure to put on a redshirt sophomore QB, with a few games of starting experience, on a team that is replacing almost its entire starting offensive line, wide receivers, tight ends, defense line and secondary…

 

Not to mention following the two most experienced QBs in college football history.  

Edited January 4 by OregonDucks

[CashDuck]

Honestly hoping to beat UW, win 10 games, and go to the best bowl not in the playoff. We aren’t really a contender next year and it would be more fun to travel to see a win over the holidays. 

[1Funduck]

Whoa Whoa Whoa mi' compadre's!!! The sky is NOT falling, it's opening up. Our own expectations are the reason the pain is as intense as it was this year. Next year we WILL be better. Most of those kids are going to gain a year of size and maturity. Sure, we have a sizable bunch moving on but please remember, these kids are only in their 2nd to 4th year of manhood. They grow enormously in this timeframe. I'm going to add another POV;

 

Ohio St recruiting efforts the last 5 years avg rating starting in 2021 is 95.05, 94.17, 93.31, 92.79, 92.25. 

Oregon's " " is 92.48, 90.78, 90.90, 92.19, 93.85. 

 

 

 

Clearly we are behind overall in quality of players, but not by much. These kids need some time to grow. Sure, I know all about portal, but so does Ohio St, Add to this that Oregon is ranked #1 for 2025 AND 2026 and we have the makings for success over the next several years. It simply takes a bit of time. Now, to reassure many of us all, Oregon is LOADED with 5* and very high 4* talent at the skill positions. QB, WR, CB and RB. The road graders are showing up as well. Take into account that Oregon's path to the B1G championship game is about as easy as Indianas season this year and its no wonder that we are slated for #2 in the country. After all, we DID beat OS this year. And the Coaching is only going to get better.

 

I'm extremely excited about our next 2 years. It's lining up beautifully. Now, we just need to get as determined on the field as OS was after their loss to UM and it should all come together.

[VegasDuck]

On 1/4/2025 at 1:52 PM, OregonDucks said:

That’s a lot of pressure to put on a redshirt sophomore QB, with a few games of starting experience, on a team that is replacing almost its entire starting offensive line, wide receivers, tight ends, defense line and secondary…

 

Not to mention following the two most experienced QBs in college football history.  

He started 5 games and all he has to do in this offense is throw a WR screen and a 5 yard out on 3rd and 10. Talent will not be the problem. 

Edited January 4 by VegasDuck

[1Ducker1]

I think we would have to win all our games to get into the playoffs incl the B1G championship because as of now that schedule is pretty weak.  Penn St and Iowa are our biggest opponents. Both teams bring on the D so we better rebuild our O line.

 

 

[30Duck]

On 1/4/2025 at 1:45 PM, VegasDuck said:

I think the talent will be there but not too sure about the coaching.

What specifically are your concerns with the coaching?

[CashDuck]

Wide receiver talent? I truly hope so but it’s been a problem for decades with next year possibly a low point no? We often have one really special guy (Franklin followed by Tez) and some talented undersized guys but they never require a special defensive scheme. Glad if we get Stewart and Holden back but they don’t make opposing D coordinators nervous. Next year is a year to build and develop. 

On 1/4/2025 at 3:20 PM, VegasDuck said:

He started 5 games and all he has to do in this offense is throw a WR screen and a 5 yard out on 3rd and 10. Talent will not be the problem. 

 

[AnotherOD]

I know these articles are going to come out; but, I don't know given college football today we know what Oregon is going to look like yet?

 

For example, lots of worry on the OL for sure. What happens if Oregon convinces Conerly to stay and then lands Pregnon from USC? Seems maybe unlikely but overnight it goes from a question mark to probably one of the best left sides in all of college football.

 

Stewart, if he is happy at the UO, probably could move up the draft boards with another season. Flashed for sure this year (with 3 big games) but in 7 of 12 games still had 3 catches or less.

 

I think we are a bit used to waiting to see top recruits but I would be surprised not to see Dakorian Moore have an impact. Stewart, Moore, and Benson would be a crazy amount of WR speed. James returns or Hughes signs. Sadiq and a healthy Jamari Johnson at TE.

 

On D, both Caldwell and Harmon could return appears to depend on their NFL grades. NIL obviously seems thus far to have changed the dynamic with guys who get later round or UFA grades (but could move up and staying another year likely in most cases won't move them down). Even one of two would be good. BB seems like maybe a go. Already added two All-B1G level type DB in Theineman and Theran Johnson.

 

Finally lots of buzz about many of the young guys. Some of the names I've read that may be ready to pop: Jerry Mixon, Jeremiah McClellan, Rodrick Pleasant, Daylen Austin, Aaron Flowers, Kingston Lopa, Sione Laulea, Payton Woodyard, of course A'Mari Washingron and Blake Purchase, Terrence Green, Aston Porter, My'Keil Gardner, Elijah Rushing, Aydin Breland, Ify, and others (plus the very young guys Brew, McNutt, Addison). What this looks like might not be more clear until Spring ball (simple college football calculus suggest there are going to be some good players here).

 

Obviously, in this new system, you can drop a game (or even two) and survive; and, as well, it appears pretty clear you want to be playing your best football toward the end of the year. Winning a giant huge game in October, while nice, isn't going to be what it once was worth with a four team playoff. Less need to be "top five" looking at the start of the year. 

[Utki]

I think a better question is if we can even make the playoffs.  Let's try that first.

[30Duck]

On 1/4/2025 at 4:10 PM, AnotherOD said:

What happens if Oregon convinces Conerly to stay and then lands Pregnon from USC? Seems maybe unlikely but overnight it goes from a question mark to probably one of the best left sides in all of college football.

This would be literally and figuratively Huge if even one of those two are Ducks next season. 

[VegasDuck]

On 1/4/2025 at 3:36 PM, CashDuck said:

Wide receiver talent? I truly hope so but it’s been a problem for decades with next year possibly a low point no? We often have one really special guy (Franklin followed by Tez) and some talented undersized guys but they never require a special defensive scheme. Glad if we get Stewart and Holden back but they don’t make opposing D coordinators nervous. Next year is a year to build and develop. 

 

No not the WR talent. I was poking fun at the play calling. 

[kirklandduck]

Next season is a transition year because of the turnover in so many position groups, mostly importantly at QB.  The real test will be how well the HS recruits have been developed since DL's 2023/2024 recruiting classes will be in their 2nd and 3rd years in the program.  If things have gone as well as I hope, there's no reason OBD couldn't have a 2 loss season and make it into the CFP for a 2nd straight year.

[Charles Fischer]

No. 2?  Are they crazy?  That ranking is not based on analysis, but on hyperbole.
 

Apparently they did not read my article a month ago of how between graduating seniors and those departing for the NFL, we will lose 19 out of 22 starters.
 

We are looking to add 10 new starters from the portal, so that means a big chunk of the team is going to be highly inexperienced.

 

A high ranking at this point is more wishful than proven. This is truly a case of getting out over our skis as we need to see how things settle up by the end of fall camp, IMHO.

 

[Solar]

On 1/4/2025 at 4:59 PM, Charles Fischer said:

No. 2?  Are they crazy?  That ranking is not based on analysis, but on hyperbole.
 

Apparently they did not read my article a month ago of how between graduating seniors and those departing for the NFL, we will lose 19 out of 22 starters.
 

We are looking to add 10 new starters from the portal, so that means a big chunk of the team is going to be highly inexperienced.

 

A high ranking at this point is more wishful than proven. This is truly a case of getting out over our skis as we need to see how things settle up by the end of fall camp, IMHO.

 

It's nice to be getting a Mulligan on the Rose Bowl disaster from the Media.

 

Even if it's bogus to be ranked #2, I'll take it.

[Charles Fischer]

True enough, as we have been’dissed in the past, and this time given too much respect?

 

Cool.

 

[30Duck]

On 1/4/2025 at 6:12 PM, Solar said:

It's nice to be getting a Mulligan on the Rose Bowl disaster from the Media.

 

Even if it's bogus to be ranked #2, I'll take it.

This entire season, I think, has been one of complete respect for OBD. They beat Ohio State, by a point, crazy ending, and after that, jumped to No.1, and eventually, a unanimous No.1. On the CFP Show, it was, "Okay, Oregon's No.1, moving on", and, it was said, early, by everybody, that Oregon is being totally screwed by the seeding.

 

After the Rose Bowl, we all saw it. Nobody said, "Oregon's successful season was a fraud." In their first B1G season, Oregon went undefeated, beating Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State in the process. After the Rose Bowl, of course nobody from Oregon said anything about the seeding, and nationally nobody said that was why Ohio State won. But the seeding issue didn't just disappear. It was acknowledged as a legitimate hardship for the No.1 seed, in this case, Oregon to go through. 

 

I still don't understand No.2 next year, but yeah, I'll take it, at least they didn't say No.1. 

[GatOrlando]

I don't see why Oregon can't be an annual threat now that it's become about resources. If you need a piece like say offensive line, receiver, corner or QB. You can now miss out on more recruits because you can remedy it by taking a guy from a program like Boise or Oregon State. I mean look at Bo Nix, Cam Ward, Dillon Gabriel, Will Howard, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Caleb William, Russell Williams, Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield.

 

Many of those guys were before the transfer portal free agency era began and cost them a year of eligibility. Now you just go get a guy like Kyle McCord and make him your day one starter. Most wrote McCord off after last year despite him being a quality starter. He completed over 65 percent of his throws and you saw how bad Ohio States offense looked in the Cotton Bowl vs Missouri without him. 

 

Oregon can roll with a guy like Moore or they could go after a guy like Rourke who really elevated the Indiana Hoosiers offense. Oregon could convince Ewers to skip the draft and try to raise his draft stock by coming to Oregon like Bo Nix did. Nix was considered a third or fourth round guy before his senior year and he's a potential rookie of the year for Denver who took him in the first round.

[30Duck]

On 1/4/2025 at 7:13 PM, GatOrlando said:

Oregon can roll with a guy like Moore or they could go after a guy like Rourke who really elevated the Indiana Hoosiers offense. Oregon could convince Ewers to skip the draft and try to raise his draft stock by coming to Oregon like Bo Nix did. Nix was considered a third or fourth round guy before his senior year and he's a potential rookie of the year for Denver who took him in the first round.

Moore could turn out to be great, or maybe Ewers or Rourke, or some other QB comes, has a great year, is a finalist for the Heisman...Unless Oregon's O-Line is transformed to the one from 2 season's ago, unless all of a sudden the LB's & secondary are on par with Ohio State's this season, and Dakorien Moore is a freshman like Jeremiah Smith, and an Ebuka on the other side, I don't see No.2.

 

That doesn't mean Oregon can't have a very successful season. 13-0 isn't the floor. 10-3, 11-2, almost certainly gets into the Playoff, maybe even that coveted 6 seed. 

[AnotherOD]

Others have mentioned, there was a graphic during the game that showed something like 8 of tOSU's 11 defensive starters had something like at least 4 years in their program (I was going to look it up but can't see myself ever rewatching any of that game, even to fast forward to look for a graphic).

 

Looking at their depth chart, Downs of course was the soph transfer from Alabama, Igbinosun a junior transfer from Old Miss (2nd season at tOSU), and Styles a true junior, everyone else was a homegrown senior.

 

Oregon, as well, had 9 seniors, one rs junior, and one true soph. However, only 1 of Oregon's 11 defensive starters had 4 years in the program (Bassa).

 

BB was in his 3rd football season, Matayo his 2nd, and Burch, Reed, and Tysheem were 2nd year transfers, and Harmond, Caldwell, Muhammed, Brandon Johnson, and Savage all were in their first year as transfers. Players in many cases developed elsewhere in many cases a different defense.

 

Other than possibly the flu, a possible explaination for the utter confusion on defense (for the competitive part of the game); and, a possible downside to the portal, even with getting good guys.

 

Not years playing in the same system, instead still maybe even learning the system. Good enough for the regular season? Quite possibly. Going into a playoff, under the bright lights, with extra time for teams to plan and scheme, playing what many feel was the ipso facto NC game? One could also argue it had already popped up in the B1G Championship game as well.

 

As a reason for possible struggles in 2025, we could apply the same sort of thought to the OL, where it appears (even with a break on a guy like Conerly staying) it will be at least some guys in a new system who haven't played much (or at all) together.

 

Edited January 5 by AnotherOD

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/4/2025 at 6:25 PM, 1Ducker1 said:

I think we would have to win all our games to get into the playoffs incl the B1G championship because as of now that schedule is pretty weak.  Penn St and Iowa are our biggest opponents. Both teams bring on the D so we better rebuild our O line.

 

 

10-2 and the champ game may not be in the mix but with 10-2 the 2025-26 PO is a certainty. OBD is in the B1G leagues and will not be Pac-12 dissed. Any 2L B1G team is in the PO.

 

At Penn State and Iowa will be tough outs but other than these two where do you see the Ls? 

 

Love the comment but I look at the schedule and find it difficult to come up with more than 2Ls.

[30Duck]

Montana State: Not a cupcake. W

OK.State: W

Northwestern: W

Beavis: W

@ Penn State: Could be an L

Indiana: The Hoosiers have picked up some talent in the Portal: W

@ Rutgers: W

Wisconsin: W

@ Iowa: another possible L

Minnesota: W

USC: Fight On USC W

@ Washington: Can't get to 12 in a row without 2 in a row W

 

Aside from @ Penn State, and at Iowa, I don't see another L.

[HDuck]

"...graphic during the game that showed something like 8 of tOSU's 11 defensive starters had something like at least 4 years in their program.."

 

I read elsewhere today an opinion that this Ohio State team may be the last national champion with primarily non-portal players.   Yes, the QB came from the portal, but primarily "program grown" roster this season.

 

There are not many holdouts which are avoiding the portal.  Clemson?

[woundedknees]

On 1/4/2025 at 8:21 PM, 30Duck said:

Montana State: Not a cupcake. W

OK.State: W

Northwestern: W

Beavis: W

@ Penn State: Could be an L

Indiana: The Hoosiers have picked up some talent in the Portal: W

@ Rutgers: W

Wisconsin: W

@ Iowa: another possible L

Minnesota: W

USC: Fight On USC W

@ Washington: Can't get to 12 in a row without 2 in a row W

 

Aside from @ Penn State, and at Iowa, I don't see another L.

Lanning will definitely have time for development, compared to this season.

[1Ducker1]

On 1/4/2025 at 7:57 PM, Jon Joseph said:

10-2 and the champ game may not be in the mix but with 10-2 the 2025-26 PO is a certainty. OBD is in the B1G leagues and will not be Pac-12 dissed. Any 2L B1G team is in the PO.

 

At Penn State and Iowa will be tough outs but other than these two where do you see the Ls? 

 

Love the comment but I look at the schedule and find it difficult to come up with more than 2Ls.

I dont think we will have more than 2 losses. I think Penn on the road could be one.Theres always the chance for another fluke loss on the road. Also depends on how the players jell.

[OregonDucks]

On 1/4/2025 at 10:13 PM, GatOrlando said:

Oregon can roll with a guy like Moore or they could go after a guy like Rourke who really elevated the Indiana Hoosiers offense. Oregon could convince Ewers to skip the draft and try to raise his draft stock by coming to Oregon like Bo Nix did. 

 

I agree with you but if you bring in an experienced QB through the portal, then you run the risk of loosing Moore (a former 5-star QB recruit), who has 3 years of eligibility remaining. I guess we'll see how much the coaches believe in Moore since they've seen him up close every single day in practice for the past season.

[The Kamikaze Kid]

Moore is a five star guy that has many snaps under his belt. He also spent the last year learning Stein's system and Lanning's culture while backing up a Heisman finalist. I highly doubt there is anybody in the portal that would be able to pass him on the depth chart. Tez thinks he'll be a Heisman candidate as well. I think Moore and many other four and five star guys that have been waiting their turn will take over the starting spots and grow into a solid tough team by season's end. 

 

I think a shaky start with closer than expected games the first half of the season is to be expected. I also think the team gels and looking as dangerous as this year's team by the end is a probable outcome. Ohio St is having "that" year much like the fuskies last year. They will come somewhat down to earth next year even if they have a similar record. I think next year Lanning finally coaching mostly his guys may be the most entertaining season yet. Can't wait!

[GatOrlando]

On 1/4/2025 at 8:25 PM, 30Duck said:

 

That doesn't mean Oregon can't have a very successful season. 13-0 isn't the floor. 10-3, 11-2, almost certainly gets into the Playoff, maybe even that coveted 6 seed. 

 Good point. Getting a home playoff game in Autzen would be an incredible experience and recruiting tool. Just don't let Tennessee fans find out the pre-sale code and troll you with Rocky Top

 

 

Edited January 5 by GatOrlando
Spelling

[Jon Sousa]

On 1/4/2025 at 8:21 PM, 30Duck said:

Aside from @ Penn State, and at Iowa, I don't see another L.

If we split these two (very possible) we would be 11-1 regular season and possibly in the CC game.

 

The Ducks just won 13 games this year... most in school history.

 

Almost everyone was looking at the Rose Bowl this year as the de-facto championship game. If anOSU continues it's post Michigan march for two more games, who's to say that the Ducks weren't the second best team in the country this year????

 

Who's to say that we would not have beaten another team in the Rose Bowl if the tourney was seeded properly. Everyone with one voice said that anOSU should have been on the opposite side of the bracket from the Ducks.