Should Tosh Lupoi's Seat be HOT?

[30Duck]

I'm thinking of other jobs and if anybody's performance of their duties matched Oregon's defense at the Rose Bowl, under Lupoi, a pink slip would have been coming. Now, it wasn't just the defense, the offense went splat too, but my impression was the defense was the worse of the two.

 

 

All season the offense did enough, the thought was that more could have been done, but was held back, playbook, long season. It looked like Oregon could have reached 40 in a lot of its games.

 

Defense, unless you're Georgia 3 years ago, won't be as dynamic as an offense, and the defense did rise up and saved the Wisconsin game. But is the defense, under Lupoi, going to reach another level?

[Jemangi]

No, not in my opinion.  I will trust Dan with his choice of coaches.

[spartan2785]

It should be getting warmer...but it isn't hot yet.  I don't think you get rid of him, but you do begin to take a look at his play calling, his game prep, etc, basically everything other than his ability as a recruiter. 

 

Lanning needs to be just as introspective about himself since he's supposed to be some kind of defensive genius.  

 

It's not time to pull the plug yet, but it does need to get better if the team is going to actually achieve it's goal of a national championship.

[David Marsh]

I think so many of Oregon's problems are personnel related. 

 

Even in game one against Ohio State the Ducks struggled to cover Ohio State's receivers who were tall and have incredible hands. Nikko Reed put up a hell of a fight against Smith in game one but he's shorter and not as fast. 

 

The secondary has continued to be the biggest problem for the Ducks defense. The front seven have been good but still need to improve as well but the back end has been more vulnerable. 

 

Getting those linebackers sorted out will be critical going forward. Bassa has been a leader and a solid contributor but he's also a bit undersized for the position. 

[kirklandduck]

On 1/15/2025 at 12:36 PM, David Marsh said:

I think so many of Oregon's problems are personnel related. 

 

Even in game one against Ohio State the Ducks struggled to cover Ohio State's receivers who were tall and have incredible hands. Nikko Reed put up a hell of a fight against Smith in game one but he's shorter and not as fast. 

 

The secondary has continued to be the biggest problem for the Ducks defense. The front seven have been good but still need to improve as well but the back end has been more vulnerable. 

 

Getting those linebackers sorted out will be critical going forward. Bassa has been a leader and a solid contributor but he's also a bit undersized for the position. 

This was exactly what I was thinking and have mentioned it on other threads as well.  DB starters overall were undersized to begin with and it showed against teams like Ohio State.  DL and coach Hampton have been addressing this over the last couple recruiting classes so help is coming but it takes time to develop.

[Solar]

On 1/15/2025 at 12:36 PM, David Marsh said:

I think so many of Oregon's problems are personnel related. 

 

Even in game one against Ohio State the Ducks struggled to cover Ohio State's receivers who were tall and have incredible hands. Nikko Reed put up a hell of a fight against Smith in game one but he's shorter and not as fast. 

 

The secondary has continued to be the biggest problem for the Ducks defense. The front seven have been good but still need to improve as well but the back end has been more vulnerable. 

 

Getting those linebackers sorted out will be critical going forward. Bassa has been a leader and a solid contributor but he's also a bit undersized for the position. 

All of that is true, but the lack of preparedness by the Defense in the last 2 games is unacceptable for any program, and it falls on the coaches.

 

Players that have played all season shouldn't look lost like that.

 

DL said schematically their game plan was wrong for what OSU did schematically, which was exactly what they did to Tennessee, which means our coaches were too distracted to game plan and coach the plan to the players thoroughly.

 

DL and the coordinators need to think long and hard about how they balance coaching and recruiting after the last regular season game. We're never going to win 3-4 post season games in a row to get a Natty if their approach doesn't change during that window.

[David Marsh]

On 1/15/2025 at 12:46 PM, Solar said:

All of that is true, but the lack of preparedness by the Defense in the last 2 games is unacceptable for any program, and it falls on the coaches.

 

Players that have played all season shouldn't look lost like that.

 

DL said schematically their game plan was wrong for what OSU did schematically, which was exactly what they did to Tennessee, which means our coaches were too distracted to game plan and coach the plan to the players thoroughly.

 

DL and the coordinators need to think long and hard about how they balance coaching and recruiting after the last regular season game. We're never going to win 3-4 post season games in a row to get a Natty if their approach doesn't change during that window.

I'd put that lack of preparedness on Lanning more than any of the assistant coaches. That was a coaching oversight and a failure to prepare. 

 

By the sound of it too they took the foot off the gas a bit when it came to practice to help players rest. They probably let players rest too much. This is the next learning curve. 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

This year we should finally start seeing Lanning’s recruits start filling out some starting spots or becoming key backups. 4/5 star guys doing 4/5 star things should look different than 3/4 star guys punching above their weight.

 

If our 4/5 star guys don’t look as prepared or as capable as their 4/5 star guys then that should be a cause for concern. Until then, I wouldn’t be warming up seats yet.

[cartm25]

I don't believe the seat should be "hot", but I have no problem with it being slightly above room temperature.

 

Statistically, the Ducks defense in Lanning's first year ranked in the 70's. The defense improved to rank in the 10/11 range in 2023 and 2024, but if we focus on the the high quality teams (BSU, tosu, and PSU) in 2024, those teams scored, essentially, at or above their average PPG for the year.

 

I would hope for a little more from a Lanning-led defense.

[DuckFan93]

It may be premature to think about firing either OC or DC, but both have been underwhelming, despite of our success this year.   If nobody hires them as HC somewhere in the near future, then the market has spoken about their abilities.   Worst case, can't DL take on the DC responsibilities too, like Brey?

[noDucknewby]

Ultimately it comes down to Lanning, this is HIS defense.  I'm not much of an Xs and Os guy, but it was pretty clear from the start that our D was constantly out of position.  Getting beat by a superior athlete 1-on1 is bound to happen, but with a talent like J. Smith you have to bracket him like Texas did (or whatever schematic advantage that actually works).  Congrats to coach K. his defenses are always really well coached.  Not saying that automatically gives you the win, but if JS has a game like he did against us you have NO chance.

 

IMHO if Lanning and Lupoi can't put this together, then DL needs to bring in a defensive guru and let him run his own system.  

 

Lupoi's seat is definitely warm and I would hate to see him go, but damn he is getting paid a ton of money so he needs to do better than our last two games.

 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by noDucknewby

[Babyjesus615]

On 1/15/2025 at 1:31 PM, DuckFan93 said:

Worst case, can't DL take on the DC responsibilities too, like Brey

It would involve him being almost strictly involved in the day-to-day processes of the defensive side; including constant player development, creating plays, tweaking them for personnel. All of this I am sure he could easily do as he's done it before. However, as the HC of a much higher profile program than lil' bro to the north, I would wonder whether or not it would spread him too thin.

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

Nah. His seat should be ice cold. Nine teams scored less than 3 TD’s against our starters. The Fuskie garbage time TD doesn’t count. Those that scored more than three TD’s were all playoff teams and one is going to be national champion. 
 

Sometimes a great defense is made to look bad by an offense with superior athletes. Monday’s national championship game should be a good example. Notre Dame has the best pass defense in the nation and they also generate the most points off of turnovers by a huge margin. Yet, they will likely get beat by 3 scores.
 

 

[Jemangi]

Oregon 13-1.   Undefeated Big Ten Champs.  Possibly 1-1 vs Nat Champion.

Sounds pretty good to me!  Just sayin...   Go Ducks, we are on a great ride.

[bbmichaels]

On 1/15/2025 at 3:23 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

Nah. His seat should be ice cold.

 

Also cause for leaving soon...

 

Dan's seat, meanwhile, is comfortably room temperature.

[Mike West]

I believe the scheme isn't suited to handle elite offenses.  I've seen four games against that set, and then two relatively above average ( talent and scheme) offenses in Happy Valley and Ann Arbor that exposed some solid red flags. 

 

I actually believe the secondary was talented enough this year to handle Ohio State.  They don't match up speed versus speed, but with the proper set of rules in zone, that group was keen enough to make plays and take away options. 

 

It is my belief that pass coverage should take options away from the QB.  I don't see that as a priority in their scheme.  I see a reactive formula that requires very elite talent.  As in NFL esque talent.  Nobody in college football is going to have a full set of players that rival NFL talent in any unit.  That especially goes for a secondary. 

 

It has become quit clear the SEC learned that fact the hard way this year.  Before, ten teams could stockpile talent and replace elite talent with near elite talent.  Now Georgia and Bama face the same issue OBD have- holes in part of their units.  

 

In my opinion, that requires blending scheme that suits the talent level.  I'm not sure many coaches are recognizing the facts on the ground yet.  They still believe they can coach up the holes they have, instead of utilizing each players' strengths in order to produce an effective amount of production from the unit as a whole.

 

Excellent coaches recognize this and exploit the weaknesses they identify.  That's why Ohio State was chomping at the bit to play OBD again.  The saw the flaws live, tracked our progress, and went to work on what Michigan initially exposed and Penn State exploited further.

 

It's time to craft a scheme that is flexible enough to suit the many strengths the players demonstrate on defense.  That's going to require testing the weaknesses in many forms and developing strengths that minimize those flaws.  

 

 That's what I see at least.  Lanning wants to use a style of defense.  I see using talent that exploits several types of defenses ( that emphasize the players' strengths). 

[bbmichaels]

@Mike West

 

Great post.

 

I'm curious about your thoughts on a Savage/Thieneman safety tandem.

 

Both great players, but both also excel at making the big hit and tackling well, rather than coverage. And while it's exciting to think of having both of those guys hunting in the defensive backfield, I wonder how that plays out in terms of pass coverage.

 

Your posts seem to be extremely knowledgeable, so I'd love your 2 cents on this.