Should Tosh Lupoi's Seat be HOT?

[30Duck]

I'm thinking of other jobs and if anybody's performance of their duties matched Oregon's defense at the Rose Bowl, under Lupoi, a pink slip would have been coming. Now, it wasn't just the defense, the offense went splat too, but my impression was the defense was the worse of the two.

 

 

All season the offense did enough, the thought was that more could have been done, but was held back, playbook, long season. It looked like Oregon could have reached 40 in a lot of its games.

 

Defense, unless you're Georgia 3 years ago, won't be as dynamic as an offense, and the defense did rise up and saved the Wisconsin game. But is the defense, under Lupoi, going to reach another level?

[Jemangi]

No, not in my opinion.  I will trust Dan with his choice of coaches.

[spartan2785]

It should be getting warmer...but it isn't hot yet.  I don't think you get rid of him, but you do begin to take a look at his play calling, his game prep, etc, basically everything other than his ability as a recruiter. 

 

Lanning needs to be just as introspective about himself since he's supposed to be some kind of defensive genius.  

 

It's not time to pull the plug yet, but it does need to get better if the team is going to actually achieve it's goal of a national championship.

[David Marsh]

I think so many of Oregon's problems are personnel related. 

 

Even in game one against Ohio State the Ducks struggled to cover Ohio State's receivers who were tall and have incredible hands. Nikko Reed put up a hell of a fight against Smith in game one but he's shorter and not as fast. 

 

The secondary has continued to be the biggest problem for the Ducks defense. The front seven have been good but still need to improve as well but the back end has been more vulnerable. 

 

Getting those linebackers sorted out will be critical going forward. Bassa has been a leader and a solid contributor but he's also a bit undersized for the position. 

[kirklandduck]

On 1/15/2025 at 12:36 PM, David Marsh said:

I think so many of Oregon's problems are personnel related. 

 

Even in game one against Ohio State the Ducks struggled to cover Ohio State's receivers who were tall and have incredible hands. Nikko Reed put up a hell of a fight against Smith in game one but he's shorter and not as fast. 

 

The secondary has continued to be the biggest problem for the Ducks defense. The front seven have been good but still need to improve as well but the back end has been more vulnerable. 

 

Getting those linebackers sorted out will be critical going forward. Bassa has been a leader and a solid contributor but he's also a bit undersized for the position. 

This was exactly what I was thinking and have mentioned it on other threads as well.  DB starters overall were undersized to begin with and it showed against teams like Ohio State.  DL and coach Hampton have been addressing this over the last couple recruiting classes so help is coming but it takes time to develop.

[Solar]

On 1/15/2025 at 12:36 PM, David Marsh said:

I think so many of Oregon's problems are personnel related. 

 

Even in game one against Ohio State the Ducks struggled to cover Ohio State's receivers who were tall and have incredible hands. Nikko Reed put up a hell of a fight against Smith in game one but he's shorter and not as fast. 

 

The secondary has continued to be the biggest problem for the Ducks defense. The front seven have been good but still need to improve as well but the back end has been more vulnerable. 

 

Getting those linebackers sorted out will be critical going forward. Bassa has been a leader and a solid contributor but he's also a bit undersized for the position. 

All of that is true, but the lack of preparedness by the Defense in the last 2 games is unacceptable for any program, and it falls on the coaches.

 

Players that have played all season shouldn't look lost like that.

 

DL said schematically their game plan was wrong for what OSU did schematically, which was exactly what they did to Tennessee, which means our coaches were too distracted to game plan and coach the plan to the players thoroughly.

 

DL and the coordinators need to think long and hard about how they balance coaching and recruiting after the last regular season game. We're never going to win 3-4 post season games in a row to get a Natty if their approach doesn't change during that window.

[David Marsh]

On 1/15/2025 at 12:46 PM, Solar said:

All of that is true, but the lack of preparedness by the Defense in the last 2 games is unacceptable for any program, and it falls on the coaches.

 

Players that have played all season shouldn't look lost like that.

 

DL said schematically their game plan was wrong for what OSU did schematically, which was exactly what they did to Tennessee, which means our coaches were too distracted to game plan and coach the plan to the players thoroughly.

 

DL and the coordinators need to think long and hard about how they balance coaching and recruiting after the last regular season game. We're never going to win 3-4 post season games in a row to get a Natty if their approach doesn't change during that window.

I'd put that lack of preparedness on Lanning more than any of the assistant coaches. That was a coaching oversight and a failure to prepare. 

 

By the sound of it too they took the foot off the gas a bit when it came to practice to help players rest. They probably let players rest too much. This is the next learning curve. 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

This year we should finally start seeing Lanning’s recruits start filling out some starting spots or becoming key backups. 4/5 star guys doing 4/5 star things should look different than 3/4 star guys punching above their weight.

 

If our 4/5 star guys don’t look as prepared or as capable as their 4/5 star guys then that should be a cause for concern. Until then, I wouldn’t be warming up seats yet.

[cartm25]

I don't believe the seat should be "hot", but I have no problem with it being slightly above room temperature.

 

Statistically, the Ducks defense in Lanning's first year ranked in the 70's. The defense improved to rank in the 10/11 range in 2023 and 2024, but if we focus on the the high quality teams (BSU, tosu, and PSU) in 2024, those teams scored, essentially, at or above their average PPG for the year.

 

I would hope for a little more from a Lanning-led defense.

[DuckFan93]

It may be premature to think about firing either OC or DC, but both have been underwhelming, despite of our success this year.   If nobody hires them as HC somewhere in the near future, then the market has spoken about their abilities.   Worst case, can't DL take on the DC responsibilities too, like Brey?

[noDucknewby]

Ultimately it comes down to Lanning, this is HIS defense.  I'm not much of an Xs and Os guy, but it was pretty clear from the start that our D was constantly out of position.  Getting beat by a superior athlete 1-on1 is bound to happen, but with a talent like J. Smith you have to bracket him like Texas did (or whatever schematic advantage that actually works).  Congrats to coach K. his defenses are always really well coached.  Not saying that automatically gives you the win, but if JS has a game like he did against us you have NO chance.

 

IMHO if Lanning and Lupoi can't put this together, then DL needs to bring in a defensive guru and let him run his own system.  

 

Lupoi's seat is definitely warm and I would hate to see him go, but damn he is getting paid a ton of money so he needs to do better than our last two games.

 

 

Edited January 15 by noDucknewby

[Babyjesus615]

On 1/15/2025 at 1:31 PM, DuckFan93 said:

Worst case, can't DL take on the DC responsibilities too, like Brey

It would involve him being almost strictly involved in the day-to-day processes of the defensive side; including constant player development, creating plays, tweaking them for personnel. All of this I am sure he could easily do as he's done it before. However, as the HC of a much higher profile program than lil' bro to the north, I would wonder whether or not it would spread him too thin.

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

Nah. His seat should be ice cold. Nine teams scored less than 3 TD’s against our starters. The Fuskie garbage time TD doesn’t count. Those that scored more than three TD’s were all playoff teams and one is going to be national champion. 
 

Sometimes a great defense is made to look bad by an offense with superior athletes. Monday’s national championship game should be a good example. Notre Dame has the best pass defense in the nation and they also generate the most points off of turnovers by a huge margin. Yet, they will likely get beat by 3 scores.
 

 

[Jemangi]

Oregon 13-1.   Undefeated Big Ten Champs.  Possibly 1-1 vs Nat Champion.

Sounds pretty good to me!  Just sayin...   Go Ducks, we are on a great ride.

[bbmichaels]

On 1/15/2025 at 3:23 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

Nah. His seat should be ice cold.

 

Also cause for leaving soon...

 

Dan's seat, meanwhile, is comfortably room temperature.

[Mike West]

I believe the scheme isn't suited to handle elite offenses.  I've seen four games against that set, and then two relatively above average ( talent and scheme) offenses in Happy Valley and Ann Arbor that exposed some solid red flags. 

 

I actually believe the secondary was talented enough this year to handle Ohio State.  They don't match up speed versus speed, but with the proper set of rules in zone, that group was keen enough to make plays and take away options. 

 

It is my belief that pass coverage should take options away from the QB.  I don't see that as a priority in their scheme.  I see a reactive formula that requires very elite talent.  As in NFL esque talent.  Nobody in college football is going to have a full set of players that rival NFL talent in any unit.  That especially goes for a secondary. 

 

It has become quit clear the SEC learned that fact the hard way this year.  Before, ten teams could stockpile talent and replace elite talent with near elite talent.  Now Georgia and Bama face the same issue OBD have- holes in part of their units.  

 

In my opinion, that requires blending scheme that suits the talent level.  I'm not sure many coaches are recognizing the facts on the ground yet.  They still believe they can coach up the holes they have, instead of utilizing each players' strengths in order to produce an effective amount of production from the unit as a whole.

 

Excellent coaches recognize this and exploit the weaknesses they identify.  That's why Ohio State was chomping at the bit to play OBD again.  The saw the flaws live, tracked our progress, and went to work on what Michigan initially exposed and Penn State exploited further.

 

It's time to craft a scheme that is flexible enough to suit the many strengths the players demonstrate on defense.  That's going to require testing the weaknesses in many forms and developing strengths that minimize those flaws.  

 

 That's what I see at least.  Lanning wants to use a style of defense.  I see using talent that exploits several types of defenses ( that emphasize the players' strengths). 

[bbmichaels]

@Mike West

 

Great post.

 

I'm curious about your thoughts on a Savage/Thieneman safety tandem.

 

Both great players, but both also excel at making the big hit and tackling well, rather than coverage. And while it's exciting to think of having both of those guys hunting in the defensive backfield, I wonder how that plays out in terms of pass coverage.

 

Your posts seem to be extremely knowledgeable, so I'd love your 2 cents on this.

[Solar]

On 1/15/2025 at 5:07 PM, Mike West said:

I believe the scheme isn't suited to handle elite offenses.  I've seen four games against that set, and then two relatively above average ( talent and scheme) offenses in Happy Valley and Ann Arbor that exposed some solid red flags. 

 

I actually believe the secondary was talented enough this year to handle Ohio State.  They don't match up speed versus speed, but with the proper set of rules in zone, that group was keen enough to make plays and take away options. 

 

It is my belief that pass coverage should take options away from the QB.  I don't see that as a priority in their scheme.  I see a reactive formula that requires very elite talent.  As in NFL esque talent.  Nobody in college football is going to have a full set of players that rival NFL talent in any unit.  That especially goes for a secondary. 

 

It has become quit clear the SEC learned that fact the hard way this year.  Before, ten teams could stockpile talent and replace elite talent with near elite talent.  Now Georgia and Bama face the same issue OBD have- holes in part of their units.  

 

In my opinion, that requires blending scheme that suits the talent level.  I'm not sure many coaches are recognizing the facts on the ground yet.  They still believe they can coach up the holes they have, instead of utilizing each players' strengths in order to produce an effective amount of production from the unit as a whole.

 

Excellent coaches recognize this and exploit the weaknesses they identify.  That's why Ohio State was chomping at the bit to play OBD again.  The saw the flaws live, tracked our progress, and went to work on what Michigan initially exposed and Penn State exploited further.

 

It's time to craft a scheme that is flexible enough to suit the many strengths the players demonstrate on defense.  That's going to require testing the weaknesses in many forms and developing strengths that minimize those flaws.  

 

 That's what I see at least.  Lanning wants to use a style of defense.  I see using talent that exploits several types of defenses ( that emphasize the players' strengths). 

Yes, it's pointless to have a scheme that allows you to dominate against slow athletes, yet gets you beat against teams that can match your speed.

 

What about the Michigan Defense brought over from the Ravens? That's different than this MINT scheme isn't it?

Edited January 16 by Solar

[Duckhart2]

The 3/1/2 weeks off made a huge difference for the 4 teams w/bye's.

[Jon Joseph]

Search OBD's D statistics in 2024.

 

Not top drawer but the OBD D was there for three wins over PO teams. Boise, Penn State, and Ohio State. UGA was the only other team with three wins, Tennessee and Texas twice, against PO teams. In addition to the stats, Tosh is a heck of a recruiter.  

 

I turn to Charles, Mike West, and others more knowledgeable when it comes to the Xs and the Os and not just the Jimmies and the Joes.

 

Is there a schematic problem? Dan had horses in Athens that he although rigorously trying, has lassoed to come to Eugene. Is the defense Dan and Tosh are trying to implement a viable work in progress or one that is outside the scope of athletes OBD can recruit? I am not qualified to submit an answer to my question.

 

As noted above, I don't know and it is probably stupid but should the design of D be easier to recruit to and coach up? Should a top-drawer DB recruit from the JC ranks who is 6'4" tall have been used more often? Especially against Jeremiah Smith?

 

Notre Dame plays more man-on-man pass D than any team in FBS. Will this D work against the vaunted tOSU receivers? Texas plays a zone-oriented D and it worked in the Cotton Bowl. 

 

I come back to 13-0 and B1G conference champion in OBD's virgin B1G voyage. I'm not certain that too much needs to be changed. 

 

Go Bucks, Neuter Notre Dame.

[Mike West]

On 1/15/2025 at 5:34 PM, bbmichaels said:

@Mike West

 

Great post.

 

I'm curious about your thoughts on a Savage/Thieneman safety tandem.

 

Both great players, but both also excel at making the big hit and tackling well, rather than coverage. And while it's exciting to think of having both of those guys hunting in the defensive backfield, I wonder how that plays out in terms of pass coverage.

 

Your posts seem to be extremely knowledgeable, so I'd love your 2 cents on this.

I’m going to have to take a good look at them before I comment.  Again, I believe it’s going to hinge on giving them solid rules for coverage.  Savage couldn’t cover elite speed, but he sure was around the ball  a lot.  
 

‘’Ohio State (Chip) did a good job isolating the weakest man on man cover guys and kept the deep Safeties in conflict coverage.  That is where the rubber meets the road-finding coverage rules that bolster those weaknesses and most importantly, forcing elite WRs to take short catches .

 

Open field tackling is vital and that may be where OBD can take advantage of their skills best.

 

This requires a lot of trial and error.  Which I don’t think DCs and position coaches scheme for.  It’s more the entire defense.  One on One coverage is very difficult for even the best CBs and Safeties.  That’s why I believe it takes looking at the best offensive plays ever designed and crafting coverage packages for them.

 

I don’t believe coaches think that way.

[Mike West]

On 1/16/2025 at 11:54 AM, Solar said:

Yes, it's pointless to have a scheme that allows you to dominate against slow athletes, yet gets you beat against teams that can match your speed.

 

What about the Michigan Defense brought over from the Ravens? That's different than this MINT scheme isn't it?

I’ve got to look at it.  Michigan does an excellent job of slowing teams down.  They have an elite staff.  That’s one of the reasons they keep getting elite players.

 

I believe our staff is pretty good.  They haven’t attacked that major weakness yet.  I’ve even seen CB Mohamed isolated at times in ways that don’t make him look good.  That has to change.

[30Duck]

It really sems the perfect Storm that OBD ran into in the Rose Bowl exaggerated how bad the offense, the defense, the special teams, the uniforms, were compared to the previous 13 games. If they had been as bad, half as bad as they were on Jan,1, Oregon wouldn't have been un-Win not undefeated.

 

David Marsh's articles examined what we watched those 13 games and the offense wasn't what we were used to. The games, specifically against Wisconsin, was always enough. Ohio State was a lot better than any of the other teams Oregon played, and they lost, to Oregon and Michigan.

 

Objectively, Oregon's gift, thanks to the CFP format, of not playing for 3 weeks, while osu2, got to work up to and toy with Tennessee before getting to play Oregon again, had a lot to do with how that game played out.

 

Lanning is off to a great start, emphasis on start. He and Lapoi and Stein are still trying to get the hang of this elite stuff. They'll have a long appointment with "the Doctor" and be ready, and have the team ready to go for the Natty.