Sounds about right. Probably lots of change between now and then with four games under our belts.

Oregon Ducks vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Odds Revealed

That's basically a pick-em but giving Penn State home field advantage which is what they have.

Hoping that Oregon's defense can actually slow their run game this time around and our offense does what it did to them last year, considering we don't have Tez or Gabriel anymore.

Penn State rarely loses in Beaver (?) Stadium. At least 3 of the -4.5 points are home-field advantage. Yet in White Out games that are reserved for the Nits biggest home game, unless PSU is out-Foxed and Noonered like last season vs. Ohio State, the White Out record is 12-8.

Both of PSU's returning RBs, Singleton and Allen, rushed for over 100 yards in the champ game. Good thing for PSU as Allar finished 20-29, 226 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs. The leading receiver, TE Ty Warren, had 7 catches for 84 yards. The top WR had 54 yards in receptions.

Ty has left the building. PSU opened the wallet to attempt to improve at WR, zero WR receptions in the loss to Notre Dame, and on paper, the position has improved. But that's on paper. Has Allen improved? Like boss-man James Franklin, Allar has come up small in the biggest games.

One can only hope that Oregon's D will be better prepared for the PSU O. And by game 5, with a road game to Chicago included, the kinks on O should be ironed out. Plus, don't discount the impact of Forum Fanatics being at the game. 😁

If Mahki is the man and the O line plays as touted, we may see more of a ball control game from OBD. It's bad and sad for PSU that the hurdling Sadiq is back.

I wager that by kickoff the spread will come down to -3, the HFA only, A home game between two equals always puts more pressure on the home team and the Nitts are the one with a returning QB...and a returning coach who should be right there with Mario for COY consideration

For this old Duck fan, we can only hope the Duck O is firing on all cylinders when we take on PSU. PSU's defense will be one of the best we face in 2025. It may take 45 points to win this game.

The Ducks will field the talent necessary to light up the scoreboard. The first true test for the O line and whoever is under center.

But it's time that DL's Defense step up and play like a top 5 defense. If they do then the rest of College Football will be on notice.

GO DUCKS........

54 minutes ago, HappyToBeADuck said:

PSU's defense will be one of the best we face in 2025.

With a new coordinator and PSU's games before OBD won't test them.

4 hours ago, Jon Joseph said:

If Mahki is the man and the O line plays as touted, we may see more of a ball control game from OBD.

If anything, I hope Will Stein learned he needs to score at least five touchdowns a game.

Until further notice, we don't have a defense that can hold an elite offense below 30 points. So every team we play that has an elite offense must face the pressure of scoring on every single one of their drive to win, because OBD will have to score on every single drive in order to win.

That's my take. I don't trust the defense to win games against elite teams. It happened once, and that was because DL exploited an unconventional rule, and Ohio State played right into that decision.

We have to assume every single title contender is as good as the 2019 LSU Tigers. We have to assume we must outscore that lethal of an offense.

So, I'm hoping Will Stein is taking lessons on dismantling the best defense ever created for college football.

We know OBD weakness. Our Achilles Heel is our defense.

Penn St schedule

Aug. 30 – Nevada

Sep. 6 – Florida International

Sep. 13 – Villanova

Sep. 20 – bye

Sep. 27 – Oregon

 

Oregon schedule

Aug. 30 – Montana St

Sep. 6 – Oklahoma St

Sep. 13 – at Northwestern

Sep. 20 – Oregon St

Sep. 27 – at Penn St

2 minutes ago, Mike West said:

We have to assume every single title contender is as good as the 2019 LSU Tigers. We have to assume we must outscore that lethal of an offense.

Ya know, a game between 2019 LSU and 2021 Georgia would be fascinating. I don't see any of the contenders in 2025 being as good on either side as those two. Having to outscore is not sustainable, so hopefully both sides will get better as the season goes on, that good ol measuring stick will show up at Penn State.

2 minutes ago, 30Duck said:

Ya know, a game between 2019 LSU and 2021 Georgia would be fascinating. I don't see any of the contenders in 2025 being as good on either side as those two. Having to outscore is not sustainable, so hopefully both sides will get better as the season goes on, that good ol measuring stick will show up at Penn State.

I totally agree. Both those offenses were lights out. The most dominant in the modern era, and nobody is close to that kind of talent.

I happen to think our scheme on defense, combined with what really has been subpar talent in the secondary, makes teams in that image, look like and score like those teams on the past three defenses DL has had at his disposal.

Heck, I'm worried Indiana is going to drop 35 on our defense. And they don't have an elite OL, or three elite WRs.

I watched the B1G title game last week. We made Penn State, who performed awfully against Ohio State, look like Ohio State looked against us. Penn State did not have a WR that could make our team last year.

I'm beginning to wonder if Lupoi and Stein go full blown timid in big games.

That Ohio State win is the only time I've seen DL actually be aggressive (well he actually did the same thing in Seattle, but Nix just happened to whiff three times in that game). He actually called out exactly what to do against Ohio State in the Ducks v Them video (which they promptly dropped as a strategy in the Rose Bowl).

Which brings me back to this year. We don't throw enough explosive routes. I expect five explosive pass catches a game. Two for TDs. Teams need to fear us like they did when Chip was HC. This time, it needs to be an explosive passing attack.

My opinion of course.

2 hours ago, Mike West said:

Heck, I'm worried Indiana is going to drop 35 on our defense. And they don't have an elite OL, or three elite WRs.

This I can't go with, no elite OL or WR's? If that can put up 35 than OBD will be fighting for their lives against Northwestern,

2 hours ago, Mike West said:

I'm beginning to wonder if Lupoi and Stein go full blown timid in big games.

The Rose Bowl showed how important a Coordinator is.

2 hours ago, Mike West said:

That Ohio State win is the only time I've seen DL actually be aggressive (well he actually did the same thing in Seattle, but Nix just happened to whiff three times in that game). He actually called out exactly what to do against Ohio State in the Ducks v Them video (which they promptly dropped as a strategy in the Rose Bowl).

Yes. The decisions against UW was Lanning playing his game, the way he wanted to. Decisions aren't bad because they didn't work.

2 hours ago, Mike West said:

Teams need to fear us like they did when Chip was HC.

I guess there was fear, but with Chip it was more just total bewilderment. 2019 LSU created fear, and I don't know if any passing attack is coming close to that one, but close will win games.

10 hours ago, HappyToBeADuck said:

For this old Duck fan, we can only hope the Duck O is firing on all cylinders when we take on PSU. PSU's defense will be one of the best we face in 2025. It may take 45 points to win this game.

Yikes, let's hope not. Since the current Beaver Stadium at Penn State was built in 1960 (in part out of reassembled remains from the old Beaver Stadium built in 1909), Penn State has never given up 45 points at home.

Actually, in Penn State's 129 year football history, it has never given up 45 points to an opponent while playing at home.

And I am being a bit silly. Penn State has given up 44 at home twice in its history, both recently (Nebraska in 2017 and tOSU in 2022). 🙂

Still, over 40 points may be a tough ask at Penn State. I believe in 30 out of the last 50 seasons, no opponents scored over 30 points in Beaver Stadium all season. I count 5 opponents over 40 since 1960.

Edited Thursday at 05:52 AM2 days by AnotherOD

IMO this game will revolve around the Duck QB position. If he becomes what his HS rating indicated Oregon could pull an upset. If he plays like he did in LA.....it will be a long day. The travel is tough but at least the Ducks are home prior to the game and will probably leave early and get settled. None of the prior games give a tough grinding game. Since it will be played at 7:30 in late September the game conditions should be ideal.....nice and crisp, perhaps high 50's and dry......and a crucial point.....Franklin has never been the kind of coach that adds points. He is not a bad coach but he is no Saban. Another huge factor.....Oregon....for the first time in the Lanning era has a Georgia type defensive front. The DE's are plentiful and scary. The interior is strong. I'd be shocked if anybody scores more than 35 points on Oregon this year and for most games.....24.

I’m more worried about the Beavis game before this one. It’s a classic trap game.

2 hours ago, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

I’m more worried about the Beavis game before this one. It’s a classic trap game.

Good point.

3 hours ago, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

I’m more worried about the Beavis game before this one. It’s a classic trap game.

Call me a " looking through green and yellow tinted glasses, total Homer", Beavis isn't beating OBD in this one. How many times does a team fall into a trap anyway?

11 hours ago, 30Duck said:

How many times does a team fall into a trap anyway?

Bama thought they could take a couple of Saturdays off last year and they ended up losing to Vandy and a very average Oklahoma team. Ohio State thought they could take the Michigan game off last year to get ready for the B1G championship game. Oregon thought they had the Rose Bowl locked up in 2013 until they got hammered by a 6-4 Arizona team. It happens all the time.

PSU is certainly not invincible in the white out games. Them having the favor is more likely to cause a slight overconfidence and build a chip on Oregon's shoulder. The most interesting thing is that BYE. Will it create a loss of momentum or a gain in preparation? Oregon will be a new enough in Offense and Defense the Lines may need the extra practice. My take is that this is another of those visits to a B1G fortress where the Ducks will be able to storm the gates and ruin the winning percentage of the talking heads' game day predictions. We have a lot to see until my guess dissipates or solidifies. If either team has a loss before this game it will shake the foundation and change the picture in a big way. Otherwise it's a GAMEDAY visit, baby.

3 hours ago, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

It happens all the time.

I don't think those Alabama games were "Trap" games, all upsets aren't. Wisconsin was supposed to be a "trap" game for Oregon last season. I am much more concerned about the Ducks losing the game to PSU at Beaver Stadium, than I am of the Beavers beating the Ducks at Autzen.

1 minute ago, 30Duck said:

I don't think those Alabama games were "Trap" games,

I agree that Vandy probably wasn't. They lost that one because they had just beaten UGA and though they could relax a little. I think they lost to OU because they were looking ahead to the Iron Bowl. Auburn almost beat them the year prior, and they were still in line for a playoff spot until OU ended their hopes.

8 minutes ago, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

think they lost to OU because they were looking ahead

I think a game can't be called a "Trap Game" after it's been played. At this time last year, a lot of us were calling the game at Wisconsin a TG. Oregon avoided it

1 minute ago, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

I agree that Vandy probably wasn't. They lost that one because they had just beaten UGA and though they could relax a little. I think they lost to OU because they were looking ahead to the Iron Bowl. Auburn almost beat them the year prior, and they were still in line for a playoff spot until OU ended their hopes.

Good thoughts, by all.

I think Bama's unexpected losses were the result of inconsistent play from the QB and others, and wholesale changes in the coaching staff. Will Ryan Grub's joining the Tide as OC make a difference?

The Bama roster is absolutely stacked, but for questions at QB. Alabama returns 14 players who started in 2024. Far more returning production than OBD, Texas, Georgia, and Ohio State, all of whom have to replace their starting QB.

Bama hosts Vandy, Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma. Possible 'trap games' are road games at Mizzou and South Carolina. Bama visits Auburn, but the Iron Bowl is never a trap game for either team.

The critical game for Bama will be at Georgia in Week 4. Even with a loss in Athens, I think Bama will play Georgia in the SEC champ game.

BTW, if you know it's a trap, are you trapped? Or is the effort simply not there on a given day?

3 minutes ago, Jon Joseph said:

BTW, if you know it's a trap, can you be trapped?

This is up to the coach, the signs are there for the Ducks -Beavers clash. If Lanning doesn't point all of them out to the players. it's self-induced.

I think we and the pundits try to anticipate classic trap games. They usually take place before a rivalry or the venue and game time benefit the underdog. This is why we all thought Oregon stood a good chance of losing to Wisconsin. I think classic trap

1 hour ago, Jon Joseph said:

BTW, if you know it's a trap, are you trapped? Or is the effort simply not there on a given day?

Good point. We and the pundits try to anticipate them, but they often catch us by surprise. It's not always looking ahead, either. Sometimes the underdog puts forth their best game. The 2019 Oregon Arizona State game comes to mind. The Ducks got caught looking ahead to the rivalry game, but it also turns out that ASU had a lot of talent (Daniels, Aiyuk, etc.) that finally started to gel toward the end of the season.

Honestly would have us more as a touchdown underdog. Unproven at QB, new O-line, receivers are unproven, interior D-line is a major question, defense as a whole has not proven itself that it can shut down elite teams. I think we lose by 10, Tosh isn't up to the task, and we play very conservatively on offense until it's too late.

After that it's a toss up if we go undefeated in the other games.

11 minutes ago, spartan2785 said:

Honestly would have us more as a touchdown underdog. Unproven at QB, new O-line, receivers are unproven, interior D-line is a major question, defense as a whole has not proven itself that it can shut down elite teams. I think we lose by 10, Tosh isn't up to the task, and we play very conservatively on offense until it's too late.

After that it's a toss up if we go undefeated in the other games.

Good take, thank you.

I think you may be giving too much credit to a James Franklin-coached team in a big-time B1G game. Perhaps too much credit to QB Drew Allar, who has yet to win a significant game. Playoff wins against SMU and Boise were nice, but Franklin and Allar gave up a lead when playing against an equally talented roster in Notre Dame. Allar threw 2 picks versus OBD last season, and I believe he is capable of doing the same this season.

I like the timing of this game and the lead-ins to the game. Penn State will have played three glorified scrimmages against teams not close to the talent of Oregon. Then, PSU has an off week before OBD comes to town with a roster equal to or better than the PSU roster.

Oregon will have played two P4 opponents and traveled two time zones to play one of them. OK State and Northwestern aren't all that, but they are far better than the dreck PSU plays OOC. Drew Allar and his all-new WR corps will not have played against the talent of the back 7 Oregon will have on the field. The newbies may shine against Nevada, FIU, and Villanova, but it's a whole new ball game versus Oregon.

I hear you on the D-line concerns, but I believe Matayo U. and friends will pressure Allar. Now we will see if Dan's interior D-line recruiting pays off. None of Oregon's IDL players were walk-ons; all were highly coveted recruits, and Bear Alexander in Eugene may be a mauler and a baller. This is an NFL prove-it season for Alexander.

I'm looking forward to the chess game. Knowles knows that Dan knows what Ohio State ran on defense when the Buckeyes D embarrassed Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Will he run the same 'stuff?' Caleb Downs is not suiting up for Penn State. OBD went 1-1 against Knowles last season.

How much will Knowles be able to improve the PSU D above the excellent defenses Tom Allen delivered in 2023 and 2024? 14 starters are back for Penn State, but Edge Abdul Carter is not one of them.

This is a huge game for the Oregon coaching staff, who I'm certain want to pay back Knowles. I expect OBD's O to play it close to the vest before this game. And then throw everything it can at PSU.

The Oregon D played and won a game against Penn State, even though it surrendered a 100-plus yards to RBs Singleton and Allen. Will OC Andy Kotelnicki have anything new to throw at the Ducks? His jack-of-all-positions, TE Tyler Warren, is in the NFL. Again, will the WRs Penn State brought in from Troy, USC, and Syracuse pan out?

There is far more pressure on Penn State playing at home in a White Out, and in front of fans who expect a Natty.

And do not overlook the impact of Forum Fanatics being on site. 😡

11 minutes ago, Jon Joseph said:

Good take, thank you.

I think you may be giving too much credit to a James Franklin-coached team in a big-time B1G game. Perhaps too much credit to QB Drew Allar, who has yet to win a significant game. Playoff wins against SMU and Boise were nice, but Franklin and Allar gave up a lead when playing against an equally talented roster in Notre Dame. Allar threw 2 picks versus OBD last season, and I believe he is capable of doing the same this season.

I like the timing of this game and the lead-ins to the game. Penn State will have played three glorified scrimmages against teams not close to the talent of Oregon. Then, PSU has an off week before OBD comes to town with a roster equal to or better than the PSU roster.

Oregon will have played two P4 opponents and traveled two time zones to play one of them. OK State and Northwestern aren't all that, but they are far better than the dreck PSU plays OOC. Drew Allar and his all-new WR corps will not have played against the talent of the back 7 Oregon will have on the field. The newbies may shine against Nevada, FIU, and Villanova, but it's a whole new ball game versus Oregon.

I hear you on the D-line concerns, but I believe Matayo U. and friends will pressure Allar. Now we will see if Dan's interior D-line recruiting pays off. None of Oregon's IDL players were walk-ons; all were highly coveted recruits, and Bear Alexander in Eugene may be a mauler and a baller. This is an NFL prove-it season for Alexander.

I'm looking forward to the chess game. Knowles knows that Dan knows what Ohio State ran on defense when the Buckeyes D embarrassed Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Will he run the same 'stuff?' Caleb Downs is not suiting up for Penn State. OBD went 1-1 against Knowles last season.

How much will Knowles be able to improve the PSU D above the excellent defenses Tom Allen delivered in 2023 and 2024? 14 starters are back for Penn State, but Edge Abdul Carter is not one of them.

This is a huge game for the Oregon coaching staff, who I'm certain want to pay back Knowles. I expect OBD's O to play it close to the vest before this game. And then throw everything it can at PSU.

The Oregon D played and won a game against Penn State, even though it surrendered a 100-plus yards to RBs Singleton and Allen. Will OC Andy Kotelnicki have anything new to throw at the Ducks? His jack-of-all-positions, TE Tyler Warren, is in the NFL. Again, will the WRs Penn State brought in from Troy, USC, and Syracuse pan out?

There is far more pressure on Penn State playing at home in a White Out, and in front of fans who expect a Natty.

And do not overlook the impact of Forum Fanatics being on site. 😡

Yeah, the James Franklin part of the equation is a major one, he isn't a good big game coach, Allar I think will play better, and he'll have some actual receivers this year. Both RBs are big time runners, Knowles knows our offense and will have a good game plan to stop us, they lose Carter, but that defense has traditionally held up really well when playing at home.

The game does come at a good time for us, we'll have some good warm up games, PSU plays nobody with a pulse until us. I think my main concerns are with the interior D-line. Penn St. ran right threw us for most of the game, if they had just gotten a couple stops against us they win last year, our defense just does not shut other good teams down, we always seem to give up 24+, so our offense has to keep up, Tosh is just not a good strategist. I see an offense that will get better in PSU and a defense that will not be as strong in Oregon, that's not a good combo. Hope to be wrong! We'll be a good team, but I think we take a step back this year (which is fine! very difficult to maintain the standard we saw last year!)