It does not seem we have seen this rendition of Oregon football play its best ball. Which begs the question: Will they? Here are some ramblings as I stew over Oregon’s upcoming Orange Bowl appearance against Texas Tech… The Second Half Letdown Against JMU I am not going to overreact to what happened to the Ducks in the second half ...

Will the Ducks Ever Peak

In 1984 the Joe Montana led 49ers went 15-1. The next year they were 9-6. Jack Nicklaus won 73 times, but didn’t win a major for three years from 1967-70. He missed the cut in more than 15% of his starts. Michael Jordan missed lots of slam dunks.

It’s sports. OBD had a great first half vs JMU. They had some faux pas in the virtually meaningless second half.

No team or player is “peaking” all the time. It can come and go in the blink of an eye. Fan expectations are often unrealistic.

Edited 13 hours ago13 hr by Grandpa Duck
Typoed the year

Darren, i suppose the time has come in the next 3 games for OBD's to peak in all 3 phases of the game.

Any of the 8 remaining teams can win their next 3 games and claim a Natty. It is A plus effort time.

I do not like to look ahead because it is a 1 game season at this point and TT is now that season. TT averages 42 points a game and gives up like 10 points a game.

Oregon D has done a great job holding opponents under their season scoring average. This game will be decided in the trenches. The D doesn't need to peak because they have been consistent all season.

Keep TT under 21-24 points and OBD's improve their chances to advance. The Duck D is capable of slowing down the Red Raiders. How much I don't know.

OBD's is the best overall defense TT has faced in 2025. TT and MU and the D tackles must cause havoc and force the Red Raiders into being one dimensional.

They can do it........

The Duck O appears to be peaking, some what! Over the last 4 games they are scoring about 41 points. The previous 4 games, 31 points. But that includes 56 against Rutgers.

The current version of the Duck O is what I expect. If the O line continues to protect, I expect OBD's to score between 28-38 points. OBD's offense is the best balanced TT has faced all season

If IU and tOSU advance their defenses are stingy and difficult to score on. However, the Duck D is pretty darn good.

But those games are another season all together.

Merry Christmas and Go Ducks.....

3 hours ago, Grandpa Duck said:

In 1984 the Joe Montana led 49ers went 15-1. The next year they were 9-6. Jack Nicklaus won 73 times, but didn’t win a major for three years from 1967-70. He missed the cut in more than 15% of his starts. Michael Jordan missed lots of slam dunks.

It’s sports. OBD had a great first half vs JMU. They had some faux pas in the virtually meaningless second half.

No team or player is “peaking” all the time. It can come and go in the blink of an eye. Fan expectations are often unrealistic.

Thanks. I hear ya, nice references, but im referring to this single, solitary season, and I dont think the Ducks have played their best yet. And, also, why Im not too concerned about the JMU 2nd half.

The time is now!!!!

19 minutes ago, HappyToBeADuck said:

Darren, i suppose the time has come in the next 3 games for OBD's to peak in all 3 phases of the game.

Any of the 8 remaining teams can win their next 3 games and claim a Natty. It is A plus effort time.

I do not like to look ahead because it is a 1 game season at this point and TT is now that season. TT averages 42 points a game and gives up like 10 points a game.

Oregon D has done a great job holding opponents under their season scoring average. This game will be decided in the trenches. The D doesn't need to peak because they have been consistent all season.

Keep TT under 21-24 points and OBD's improve their chances to advance. The Duck D is capable of slowing down the Red Raiders. How much I don't know.

OBD's is the best overall defense TT has faced in 2025. TT and MU and the D tackles must cause havoc and force the Red Raiders into being one dimensional.

They can do it........

The Duck O appears to be peaking, some what! Over the last 4 games they are scoring about 41 points. The previous 4 games, 31 points. But that includes 56 against Rutgers.

The current version of the Duck O is what I expect. If the O line continues to protect, I expect OBD's to score between 28-38 points. OBD's offense is the best balanced TT has faced all season

If IU and tOSU advance their defenses are stingy and difficult to score on. However, the Duck D is pretty darn good.

But those games are another season all together.

Merry Christmas and Go Ducks.....

Great points. Oregon at it best is better than TT at their best. It's just a matter if getting it done.

Great article, Darren. And yes, I care very little about what our defense allowed in the second half. As you point out, this might actually be what I would call a 'blessing in disguise,' as it gives DL something to get on them about.

But I am a bit concerned that in the first half, our defense gave up 189 yards -- while fortunately, only giving up 6 points. JMU had a couple early solid drives, but thankfully our defense quickly stiffened, resulting in JMU ending up with a FG & an INT. I doubt TT would make the same mistakes.

And hopefully, JMUs offense is just better than I realize.

But speaking to your article title, the bottom line for me is either we peak now, or we likely will be, once again, talking about the season that could have been.

Can’t say when you peaked until the season is over imo.

IMO, The team that puts the most pressure on the opposing qb, wins it all in this tourney. Yep, defense is the key factor. All teams left can score the ball however, the teams with rattled qb's will sputter big time.

This is the area we must improve on, versus trying to play it safe. Of all the team left we get to the qb the least amount. Thats how we got chewed up by Indiana's qb.

On defense, we seem to try to take away a teams strength. Our safeties seemed overly aggressive against the JMU run game, and that was what allowed some big chunk plays.

It really seems that our defense plays well when DM struggles, and when DM plays well our defense seems to struggle.

Lupoi needs to call a better game against TT.

I think we are approaching peak offense. If Moore and the receivers perform just as cleanly as they did in the first half against JMU I think we stand a great chance.

Yes, Moore had two interceptions. One was a fluke that should have been an incomplete pass but bounced right into the hands of a DB. There was also a collision between the receiver and another defender a few seconds earlier in the play but as it was before the ball was in the air it was not PI.

The second was a bad pass that just kinda floated while Moore was pressured. However, Kamari Johnson did fall down which left the lane open for an uncontested interception. I think the decision to go there was the right one for Moore as that seemed like a hot route and Johnson was in isolation. He was bigger than the defender and if he didn't lose his feet he could have either caught the ball and put muscled the receiver for the TD or just deflected the ball for an incompletion.

Both happened but I don't think either was super egregious just not ideal.

Geez Darren….you read my mind, as I have been thinking about this. How we slowly unfolded the offense over last season, but the long layoff killed that.

This year we have not had the complete game yet, and while that is an unpractical expectation versus the No. 4 team…a fan has to dream-right?

3 hours ago, Desert Duck said:

Great article, Darren. And yes, I care very little about what our defense allowed in the second half. As you point out, this might actually be what I would call a 'blessing in disguise,' as it gives DL something to get on them about.

But I am a bit concerned that in the first half, our defense gave up 189 yards -- while fortunately, only giving up 6 points. JMU had a couple early solid drives, but thankfully our defense quickly stiffened, resulting in JMU ending up with a FG & an INT. I doubt TT would make the same mistakes.

And hopefully, JMUs offense is just better than I realize.

But speaking to your article title, the bottom line for me is either we peak now, or we likely will be, once again, talking about the season that could have been.

Thanks. Credit to JMU in the first half, they were probably playing their best offensive ball of the year ("peaking"), there's a reason they did go 12-1. But, the ducks kept them out of the end zone. But, sure, it's something to look at, for sure.

3 hours ago, JabbaNoBargain said:

Can’t say when you peaked until the season is over imo.

True, but if the Ducks have already peaked, then yikes! I'm optimistically praying that they have not.

2 hours ago, Duckhart said:

IMO, The team that puts the most pressure on the opposing qb, wins it all in this tourney. Yep, defense is the key factor. All teams left can score the ball however, the teams with rattled qb's will sputter big time.

Giving us all flashbacks to the Indiana game. Nooooo!. But, you're right, and the O-line and offensive game planning have to be on to keep the QB from getting rattled. Good ole coaching.

2 hours ago, Drake said:

On defense, we seem to try to take away a teams strength. Our safeties seemed overly aggressive against the JMU run game, and that was what allowed some big chunk plays.

It really seems that our defense plays well when DM struggles, and when DM plays well our defense seems to struggle.

Lupoi needs to call a better game against TT.

And some of that would be how the opposing teams dials up the offense given the way the game is going, but you're not wrong.

2 hours ago, David Marsh said:

I think we are approaching peak offense. If Moore and the receivers perform just as cleanly as they did in the first half against JMU I think we stand a great chance.

Yes, Moore had two interceptions. One was a fluke that should have been an incomplete pass but bounced right into the hands of a DB. There was also a collision between the receiver and another defender a few seconds earlier in the play but as it was before the ball was in the air it was not PI.

The second was a bad pass that just kinda floated while Moore was pressured. However, Kamari Johnson did fall down which left the lane open for an uncontested interception. I think the decision to go there was the right one for Moore as that seemed like a hot route and Johnson was in isolation. He was bigger than the defender and if he didn't lose his feet he could have either caught the ball and put muscled the receiver for the TD or just deflected the ball for an incompletion.

Both happened but I don't think either was super egregious just not ideal.

Good points, and things that will have the coaching staff getting on the team and motivating them for the next game.

2 hours ago, Charles Fischer said:

Geez Darren….you read my mind, as I have been thinking about this. How we slowly unfolded the offense over last season, but the long layoff killed that.

This year we have not had the complete game yet, and while that is an unpractical expectation versus the No. 4 team…a fan has to dream-right?

It could happen. The stage will be huge, and the players should be ready to roll, as opposed to the possible shoulder shrugging and feigned intensity that might have occurred last weekend. But, we'll see!!!

3 hours ago, Duckhart said:

IMO, The team that puts the most pressure on the opposing qb, wins it all in this tourney. Yep, defense is the key factor. All teams left can score the ball however, the teams with rattled qb's will sputter big time.

Thank you, Darren, for another article that most certainly peaks OBD fans' interest.

Good take, Duckhart.

Texas Tech is ranked 1st in QB hurries. OBD is ranked 116th. This is the biggest disparity in the 2025 rankings between the two teams.

Other stats - In 2024 and 2025, OBD is 25-0 when rushing for 100 yards or more. 0-2 when rushing for fewer than 100.

Rush D - Texas Tech No. 1 - OBD No. 24

Rush O - OBD No. 13 - 217.1 avg. per game - 5.9 yds per carry. (FYI, JMU's rush game is ranked No. 6.)

Texas Tech No. 26 - 190.9 avg. per game - 4.8 yds per carry

Pass D - OBD No. 6 - Texas Tech No. 21

Pass O - Texas Tech No. 11 - 289.4 Yds - OBD No. 44 - 251.8 yards

Oregon's passing attack will be the best TT has faced this season.

Total D - Texas Tech No. 2 - OBD No. 8

Scoring D - Texas Tech No. 3 - OBD No. 9

Defense Stop Rate - Texas Tech No. 1 - OBD No. 6

The Red Raiders appear to have a decided statistical advantage.

But Waiiiiiittttt A Minute!😁😁😁

Even in the NFL with 32 teams all having Purple Chip Rosters, Strength of Schedule (SOS) remains a crucial factor.

For the 1st time, ATB (After Tom Brady) under a new coach, Ohio State All-American, Mike Vrabel, the Patriots are playoff-bound. Great improvement in attitude and player performance under Vrabel, but the turnaround was helped by the Pats' opponents having a .374-win percentage.

As fortuitous a scheduling break for the Pats as Texas A&M had in 2025, going 7-0 against SEC teams without winning records and 0-1 vs. 9-3 Texas. And O-1 against 11-2 Miami.

FPI Strength of Schedule Rankings through 12/20/25 -

OREGON - No. 14 - Texas Tech - No. 54.

Will we see this SOS advantage show up in the Orange Bowl? Will OBD use its roster advantage and peak at the right time and wipe out the memory of last New Year's (Ryan 🤬) Day?

This (knock wood) is the first of OBD's three remaining games. To win it all, three peaks have to be conquered. Get the first one done on 1/1, and hopefully the third on a return to Miami on 1/19. 😍

If OBD can conquer Texas Tech, we'll see an Orange in OBD's New Year's stocking, instead of a lump of fossilized oil.

WRECK TECH!

Ask yourself what would TT record be if they played OBD's scjedule? 10-2 maybe 9-3.

They do not have any, and i mean any teams in the BIG 12 that could make TT one dimensional on offense. None......not even Utah

IU, PSU in the white out game, Iowa and the huskies on the road would have altered TT on offense.Please name any games that the Red Raiders played that match those games?

Schedules and opponents make a difference.

Oregon is the better team who faced some good teams and faced one powerhouse team in IU.

OBD's, with TT's schedule would be 13-0. Dilly's team does not have the horses ro beat the Ducks.

Make no mistake, TT can beat the Ducks if they don't play clean and execute for 60 minutes.

I expect a 38-24 Duck victory in January 1st, 2026.

Go Ducks......