Is The Committee Going to Jump the Buck's over the Ducks This Week?

[30Duck]

They could? The whole country saw Ohio State blow out the Purdue team that beat Michigan State the week before. Meanwhile ESPN  had the Oregon game covered.

 

 

College Football Playoff Predictions: Will Ohio State Buckeyes Jump Oregon Ducks?  Ducks Wire Zachary Neel

[Jon Joseph]

I think 1-4 hold steady this week but if OH ST defeats MI ST and OR wins at Utah I think OH ST jumps OR in the CT week 4 rankings.

 

Utah is -3.

[GODUCKS15]

Would seem about right if they did. Head to head is only part of the process. Body of work goes a long way. Not sure how long the Ducks can keep the 3 spot since tOSU plays MI and MST. Both more credible if they win than the Ducks beating UT twice and OrSt once. 

Edited November 15, 2021 by GODUCKS15

[Tandaian]

I'd obviously want to stay ahead of tOSU in the standings, but if the Ducks win out, they are in the top 4.  Being in the top 4 is the only thing that matters to me.  This year isn't the Ducks year, but I'll take it.  The Ducks are built for 2022, 2023 and hopefully beyond.

[Vandownbytheriverduck]

On 11/15/2021 at 8:22 AM, Jon Joseph said:

but if OH ST defeats MI ST and OR wins at Utah I think OH ST jumps OR in the CT week 4 rankings.

Really? I’ll bet you Charles Fischer’s lunch that another Duck road win, at Utah, won’t drop the Ducks behind Tosu. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/15/2021 at 11:23 AM, GODUCKS15 said:

Would seem about right if they did. Head to head is only part of the process. Body of work goes a long way. Not sure how long the Ducks can keep the 3 spot since tOSU plays MI and MST. Both more credible if they win than the Ducks beating UT twice and OrSt once. 

 

I think you are probably right?

 

Personally, I hate this whole 'body of work' BS. MI should not be ranked above MI ST. Projecting that Oregon would not win the games OH ST wins in the B1G is simply conjecture. If OH ST and OR finish 12-1, OR should be ranked above OH ST. If this isn't the case why bother to play a team the quality of OH ST OOC? Play TX Tech, Fresno and Portland St OOC and go 8-1 in the conference, 9-1 with a champ game win and you are in.

 

"Body of work," SOR, strength of game control, etc.,  just proves up what we know: This is not a Playoff it is an Invitational. It is not an NCAA event, it is a Disney/ESPN event.

 

Go to 12, 5 P5 champs in, top G5 team in and 6 AL and you have something resembling a PO. This is the Pac-12 compromise position which is likely to be adopted on or about 12/1/21.

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/15/2021 at 11:30 AM, Tandaian said:

I'd obviously want to stay ahead of tOSU in the standings, but if the Ducks win out, they are in the top 4.  Being in the top 4 is the only thing that matters to me.  This year isn't the Ducks year, but I'll take it.  The Ducks are built for 2022, 2023 and hopefully beyond.

 

Great point. But 4 means vs UGA in the Orange Bowl. 3 means playing a team not as good as UGA in the Cotton Bowl. I do not see Bama defeating UGA? Finish 3 and it is possibly a rematch against OH ST? 

[Mike West]

On 11/15/2021 at 8:23 AM, GODUCKS15 said:

Would seem about right if they did. Head to head is only part of the process. Body of work goes a long way. Not sure how long the Ducks can keep the 3 spot since tOSU plays MI and MST. Both more credible if they win than the Ducks beating UT twice and OrSt once. 

 

Depends...

 

MSU has certainly peaked.  Can't say enough about Mel Tucker.  He got this team to dominate the middle of the conference.  But they aren't talented enough to handle the cream of the crop.

 

Michigan?  Do you really think Harbaugh can handle Ohio State?  I smell bloodbath in that game.  

 

Now I recognize the committee has both ranked high, but if Ohio State blows them out, in my mind they're overrated

[30Duck]

On 11/15/2021 at 8:44 AM, Jon Joseph said:

This is not a Playoff it is an Invitational. It is not an NCAA event, it is a Disney/ESPN event.

 

[GODUCKS15]

On 11/15/2021 at 8:50 AM, Mike West said:

 

Depends...

 

MSU has certainly peaked.  Can't say enough about Mel Tucker.  He got this team to dominate the middle of the conference.  But they aren't talented enough to handle the cream of the crop.

 

Michigan?  Do you really think Harbaugh can handle Ohio State?  I smell bloodbath in that game.  

 

Now I recognize the committee has both ranked high, but if Ohio State blows them out, in my mind they're overrated

I think tOSU beats both MI and MST. Those wins would look better than what the Ducks have left. Therefore I think tOSU jumps the Ducks eventually. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/15/2021 at 11:50 AM, Mike West said:

 

Depends...

 

MSU has certainly peaked.  Can't say enough about Mel Tucker.  He got this team to dominate the middle of the conference.  But they aren't talented enough to handle the cream of the crop.

 

Michigan?  Do you really think Harbaugh can handle Ohio State?  I smell bloodbath in that game.  

 

Now I recognize the committee has both ranked high, but if Ohio State blows them out, in my mind they're overrated

 

Mike, I'll believe OH ST is all that after the MI ST game Saturday and the game at MI? Purdue is an up and down team. OH ST has blown out the lesser opponents this season and played close games vs the tougher opponents. Especially, on the road. Did you watch the OH ST at Nebraska game? OH ST at Minnesota?

 

IMO, the MI win Saturday at a desperate Penn ST was every bit as solid as OH ST's home win vs Penn State. MI for some reason alternated QBs in the 4th Q in E Lansing. The true frosh QB turned the ball over on back to back possessions in the 4th Q. And Michigan had a TD overturned that the B1G acknowledged should not have been overturned. 

 

IMO, this is a very good front-running Ohio State team but it is not a cream of the crop OH ST team.

[30Duck]

On 11/15/2021 at 9:02 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

IMO, this is a very good front-running Ohio State team but it is not a cream of the crop OH ST team.

 

I agree, the L to Oregon prompted changes in the defense, but this Ohio State team is not playing the quality of defense that the Champion Buckeyes played, hence not putting Nebraska away.

[JDuck]

I don't think it matters, if we win out, we are in.  We lose one, we are playing for the Rose Bowl and likely have to beat Utah in Vegas, lose that either way, and it's Alamo or Holiday at best, even if we are 11-2.   

 

Beating Utah twice won't be easy but the run game, D, much fewer penalties...despite injuries we are starting to peak at the right time.  Can't wait for next year, but this year is not done yet...just hope we don't need AB to make many throws down the field, but I sure hope he can find some 10-12 yard completions instead of 1-2 yards when it's 3rd and 9...

[Washington Waddler]

     Assuming both win out, any chance of the Ducks staying 3rd would rely on them dominating opponents, and tosu requiring fourth quarter come backs.

[latracey]

The committee has seen fit so far to honor Oregon's head to head win over tOSU, in the Horseshoe in front of 100,000  Columbus, Ohio homeboys no less. It is the politically correct  move given their protocol which puts a premium on head to head wins. Many of the big wigs have no interest in expanding the playoff field and are doing everything they can to maintain the status quo.

 

That all said, not a soul on the committee, ESPN, the SEC, the Big 10, or in Vegas thinks Oregon will run the table before them. Utah is about a 3 point favorite to beat the Ducks on Saturday and ESPN is currently giving them a 5% chance of making the CFP. The notion is that Oregon will lose and tOSU can then claim their rightful position in the top 4.

 

As Jon Joseph said above, we are talking about a combination beauty contest/invitational here and, while it reaps huge profits for the fortunate few, it is in no way, shape, or form an actual playoff. I, for one, certainly hope that gets rectified in my life time. 

 

In the meantime, wouldn't it be fun if Oregon completely rained on the parade and ran the table? The "experts" can say what they will, but I will always maintain that successfully navigating a 9 game Pac 12 schedule is as difficult as anything teams in the Big 10, SEC, or any other conference in the country have to do. Given the fact Oregon is only given a 5% chance of winning their next 3 games, someone out there agrees with me.

 

If Oregon somehow manages to win their next 3 games and end up 12-1, they will deserve to be ranked ahead of Ohio State. Don't give me that malarkey about how tOSU played a tougher schedule. We have no idea about how WSU, or Utah would fare vs MSU, PSU, or Michigan, but we know that Oregon beat tOSU on their home field. That, my friends should be enough if both teams end up 12 - 1. 

 

And that, my friends, is EXACTLY why the CFP field needs to be expanded so that it is an actual College Football Playoff.

[RichardDuck]

Latest version of ESPN's Playoff Predictor still envisions two teams passing the Ducks even if they win out. UO given a 32 percent chance of making CFP at 12-1. This is contrary to virtually every other analysis.

 

Edited November 15, 2021 by RichardDuck

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/15/2021 at 1:27 PM, RichardDuck said:

Latest version of ESPN's Playoff Predictor still envisions two teams passing the Ducks even if they win out. UO given a 32 percent chance of making CFP at 12-1. This is contrary to virtually every other analysis.

 

 

The Flaky Prediction Index is suspect.

[Mike West]

On 11/15/2021 at 9:02 AM, Jon Joseph said:

IMO, this is a very good front-running Ohio State team but it is not a cream of the crop OH ST team.

 

I think you guys are thinking that I believe tOSU is overrated.  I'm saying MSU and Michigan are overrated.  

[kirklandduck]

However it shakes out I hope Oregon stays at #3.  Just getting into the CFP is a step forward but a win would be even bigger...that's more likely against a team other than Georgia.

[30Duck]

 Herbie's keeping Oregon at No. 3

 

[Charles Fischer]

Well...you could knock me over with a Duck feather...Herbie pleasantly surprised me.

 

           Gotta celebrate this!

[C J]

Like I said a few weeks ago the committee is lining up everything to screw us right now.

 

Putting Michigan in front of MSU after they lost to them was just another subtle way that telegraphs where they are headed.

 

Prepare to be infuriated........IF we win the next three games.

[deschutesduck]

I think OSU will jump over Oregon if they beat Michigan St. this weekend, that said I think Alabama will lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship game and drop out of the top 4 unless it's the closest game of the season.

[GODUCKS15]

Where ever the Ducks land I just hope they don't have to play tOSU again. 

[1Ducker1]

On 11/15/2021 at 2:06 PM, 30Duck said:

 Herbie's keeping Oregon at No. 3

 

No Capital O in Oregon??? 

[Duck1984]

On 11/15/2021 at 3:00 PM, GODUCKS15 said:

Where ever the Ducks land I just hope they don't have to play tOSU again. 

I hope to beat OSU teams three times this season!

[HappyToBeADuck]

I would rather play Georgia than a repeat game against tOSU. Unless it's in the Natty. The price to pay when u knock on the door of the promised land.

 

An undefeated Cincinnati is a big concern. Cinderella darling of the game day crew. 

 

If Bama beats Georgia then it's

1. Bama

2. Georgia

3. OSU

4. Oregon or Cincinnati 

Assuming all win out except Georgia.

 

Take care of business and do it with dominance.

 

Go Ducks......

 

[Jon Joseph]

A 12-1 UO with a win at OH ST and a far better SOS will not be passed over by 13-0 Cincy.  But watch to see if SMU and Houston are ranked on Tuesday? 

 

Bama will NOT beat UGA. Bama has no run game whatsoever and a group of very good but not All World WRs like the last 2 seasons. The TN O is as good as the Bama O and the Vols did put up 17 vs UGA at home last Saturday, but no more. 

 

Final 4 if Oregon keeps playing guts ball D and running the ball?

 

1Uga

2 Ohio State

3 Oregon 

4 Cincy or OK ST

 

And I'm not sure OH ST can run MI ST, at MI and vs Wisconsin?

 

Bama? Arkansas, at Auburn and UGA in ATL.

 

Cincy? Vs SMU and vs Houston in the AAC champ game. Cincy beat a bad Indiana team and caught ND perfectly in the midst of a QB shuffle.

 

OK? Vs Iowa State at OK ST and a champ game.

 

 

[30Duck]

On 11/15/2021 at 5:15 PM, Jon Joseph said:

And I'm not sure OH ST can run MI ST, at MI and vs Wisconsin?

 

Bama? Arkansas, at Auburn and UGA in ATL.

 

Cincy? Vs SMU and vs Houston in the AAC champ game. Cincy beat a bad Indiana team and caught ND perfectly in the midst of a QB shuffle.

 

Watching OH. ST. in their recent games, the team looks like they're fine Outscoring the other teams. That worked against Nebraska, and they got on a roll against Purdue. Unlike the "Committee", I think that MI. ST is better than Michigan; Walker is a great RB, and they have a strong passing game, I don't see Harbaugh getting the W over OH. ST.

 

Oklahoma was back to Rattler after the glow wore off of Williams last week, everything is not OK for OK. going in to their last 3 games.

[Jon Joseph]

Outscoring the other team barely worked for OH ST against Tulsa, Nebraska and Minnesota. I'd love a rematch vs OH ST in the Cotton Bowl; instead, of UGA in the Orange Bowl, all (Ryan) day long.

 

The Ducks will win in SLC, beat OR ST and Utah again. That means #3 and probably, Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl? Although I am not giving OH ST the automatic win in Ann Arbor.

 

This is not one of the great OH ST teams. This week vs MI ST will not be a lay up for the Bucks. 

 

Go 3-0 and the Ducks is in. Keep running the ball as has OR and any team can be beat. Keep KT and Sewell healthy and any team can be beat. The D is playing up to championship level. Frustrating break downs? Yes. But when it counts? Sans refs at Stanford the Ducks D holds up.

 

Bama will not beat UGA. This Bama team has no run game and Bama will not beat UGA if it cannot run the ball.

 

Grab your socks and hold onto your jocks. This is not the high-flying Ducks of old but the grind it out winning Ducks. Yes, the Ducks lost on The Farm but Oregon lost to the refs and not to the Cardinal.

It has been ugly  this season.  But Oregon has the chance to be, like its QB, ugly-pretty?

 

This is a deep and good Ducks roster. And having a re-born FG kicker will help the cause down the road.

 

Oregon has lost this key penultimate conference game before. Not this Saturday. Bank it. I am. I'm down with Oregon +3.