Stewart Mandel was asked this in The Athletic, and here is what he wrote...

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Has Dan Lanning reached his peak as a head coach? Meaning, the Nike money obtains him talent to the point he can make the Playoff and win a game or two, but the final eight teams all have talent, so coaching becomes the differentiator. — Jorge A.

Mandel: I get that Lanning’s teams have suffered blowout CFP losses the last two years, but I don’t consider that a knock on his coaching ability. His teams have been wildly successful. They’ve only lost five games in the last three years, and all five were to teams that won or reached the national championship game (2023 Washington twice, 2024 Ohio State once, 2025 Indiana twice). They also beat those 2024 Buckeyes during the regular season, and the two Washington losses were both decided by three points.

The Ducks have also had some bad CFP luck the last two years. They drew an uber-talented Ohio State team in that 2024 quarterfinal; the Buckeyes would have been a higher seed in the new format. With true seeds, Oregon might have reached the championship game. And last year the Ducks had to face Indiana with seemingly no running backs left on their entire team. Oregon probably would have lost anyway, but perhaps it would have been more competitive.

If college football were as simple as “the team with the most NIL money wins,” Texas Tech would have won at least one CFP game last season, Steve Sarkisian would have a national title by now and Mario Cristobal would have two or three. You still have to hit on the right players, come up with the best gameplans and call the right plays.

History has shown that if a coach can win at a high level, year-in and year-out, he’s probably going to break through at some point. See: Tom Osborne. Or Bobby Bowden. Or Mack Brown. Or more recently, Jim Harbaugh, Kirby Smart and Ryan Day.

Lanning’s day is coming.

I agree with Mandel...do YOU?

Peaked at 39?

How old were the other coaches listed when they broke through?

I’d say the assessment is right on.