Stewart Mandel was asked this in The Athletic, and here is what he wrote...

---

Has Dan Lanning reached his peak as a head coach? Meaning, the Nike money obtains him talent to the point he can make the Playoff and win a game or two, but the final eight teams all have talent, so coaching becomes the differentiator. — Jorge A.

Mandel: I get that Lanning’s teams have suffered blowout CFP losses the last two years, but I don’t consider that a knock on his coaching ability. His teams have been wildly successful. They’ve only lost five games in the last three years, and all five were to teams that won or reached the national championship game (2023 Washington twice, 2024 Ohio State once, 2025 Indiana twice). They also beat those 2024 Buckeyes during the regular season, and the two Washington losses were both decided by three points.

The Ducks have also had some bad CFP luck the last two years. They drew an uber-talented Ohio State team in that 2024 quarterfinal; the Buckeyes would have been a higher seed in the new format. With true seeds, Oregon might have reached the championship game. And last year the Ducks had to face Indiana with seemingly no running backs left on their entire team. Oregon probably would have lost anyway, but perhaps it would have been more competitive.

If college football were as simple as “the team with the most NIL money wins,” Texas Tech would have won at least one CFP game last season, Steve Sarkisian would have a national title by now and Mario Cristobal would have two or three. You still have to hit on the right players, come up with the best gameplans and call the right plays.

History has shown that if a coach can win at a high level, year-in and year-out, he’s probably going to break through at some point. See: Tom Osborne. Or Bobby Bowden. Or Mack Brown. Or more recently, Jim Harbaugh, Kirby Smart and Ryan Day.

Lanning’s day is coming.

I agree with Mandel...do YOU?

Peaked at 39?

How old were the other coaches listed when they broke through?

I’d say the assessment is right on.

Some consider Nick Saban as the GOAT, he was 52 when he won his first championship.

I was and still am very disappointed in how our last season ended. It's hard to win games when you relay on the run game and 2/3 of the top run production on the team is out with injuries. On so many of those drives that stalled out in third and short the Ducks wouldn't have converted or avoided that situation with Davison (or Whittington) on the field and being able to pick up just a few yards here and there. Davison is going to be a huge factor in the next two years! Yes, we have him for at least TWO more years!

There was a reason why Harris was buried on the depth chart and I don't wish any ill will as he stepped up and tried his best when his moment came but his best wasn't anywhere near good enough. I love what Hill can provide the team but he isn't an every down back he is a change of pace back, he is the lightning to Davison's thunder.

This last season ended with two coordinators leaving which frankly left some of the game planning feeling underwhelming and injuries and transfers for a key position that left the cupboard bare. It sucks but in Lanning year four of being a head coach anywhere it was still a good season.

But I do have hope for the future.

And remember... in the new playoff format only ONE team gets to end on a high note. EVERY OTHER TEAM is going to end on a loss because that's how tournaments work.

More on Danno - Hopefully, Dan follows the path of Kirby Smart and not Sark -

Kirby has two titles. His 1st round PO losses came when his starting QB, who led Miami to the champ game in 2025, was hurt, and Houdini, a/k/a Trinidad Chambliss, showed up for Ole Miss.

Kirby and Dan are two for two in making the 12-team PO field. Sark is one for two.

Dear Jorge A., are you out of your mind, eh? But, I get it, Patience has left today's wired world, and Prudence is nowhere to be seen.

Six years for Kirby to get Smart. More than a Day, six years in fact, for Day to win it all.

Cig? He put the Hoo in the PO punch bowl. If Cig can do it! 🤬

You not only have to be great, but you also have to be lucky.

Oregon Ducks On SI

Dan Lanning Enters Elite Coaching Tier With Kirby Smart A...

Oregon Ducks coach Dan Lanning, Georgia Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart and Texas Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian are grouped as a new tier of respected coaches and

Dan is not Kirby or Nick. Dan is Dan and so far he's been seriously out-coached when it mattered most. Not to say he can't get beyond this current plateau, but doing so will require something different. Something we haven't seen yet. The question is, does Dan have the extra "something" or not? Time will tell.

Good topic and a bit difficult to offer anything substantive.

A few of my opinions:

● The players had no fight in them in their last game of the season. Both 24 and 25. Could coach be driving them too hard. All of us have that point that we can reach where there is no gas left in the tank. Coach play more players throughout the season to keep players fresh and do practises need to be as physical and violent as summer camps?

● DL and his staff lack a certain level of in game adjustment experience. In reality they did not game plan well before, during or after the game. This must change and change soon.

●Injuries and transfers out caused turmoil. Who transfers out when you are 2 games from a Natty shot? The mojo, rythmn and continuity were broken, maybe?

●DL is an ever changing beast. Each year the team gets better. I expect year 5 will be better and in year 6 the trophy will come home to Eugene and PK's office until he leaves this earth.

Win or lose, I like this version of the Ducks over the 70's and 80's Ducks.

OK...I gotta wave my Pom-Poms.

All those serious shortcomings listed in the posts above--in the last two years occurred against the National Champion, both years. Not the other games, you know how we won a record 13 games a year...twice?

The bigger the spotlight, the more glaring the results? At the end of a very successful season, it’s hard to resist not putting all those eggs in one basket where you’ll get either one glorious omelette or a broken mess?

The big picture tells me Dan’s on the verge, but still needs a bit more seasoning. The bigger picture tells me he’s building it right on track to get there.

I’ll go with the bigger picture.

3 hours ago, HappyToBeADuck said:

Coach play more players throughout the season to keep players fresh and do practises need to be as physical and violent as summer camps?

Potentially there need to be some adjustments in how practices work.

Cignetti does minimal practicing but he has relied heavily on experienced players and mental reps. The younger the players the more reps they tend to need just to do things right. I think this Indiana team had one sophomore as a starter on a starting roster of otherwise upperclassmen in mostly their 4th and 5th years. Completely different needs if that's the case.

Also... there were some freak injuries that I would say the practice didn't necessarily impact.

Davison was injured on a play in a game where he hit the ground funny and broke his collar bone.... Not practice related.

Whittington reportedly had turf toe which appears to be more of a non-contact injury... not inherently practice related.

But maybe some minor injuries were more practice related... like Sadiq who sat out a couple games but also just wasn't as effective in others due to nagging injuries where he may have overdone it in practice... or potentially the games themselves.

Getting the right balance of practice and rest is certainly difficult.

25 minutes ago, David Marsh said:

Potentially there need to be some adjustments in how practices work.

Cignetti does minimal practicing but he has relied heavily on experienced players and mental reps. The younger the players the more reps they tend to need just to do things right. I think this Indiana team had one sophomore as a starter on a starting roster of otherwise upperclassmen in mostly their 4th and 5th years. Completely different needs if that's the case.

Also... there were some freak injuries that I would say the practice didn't necessarily impact.

Davison was injured on a play in a game where he hit the ground funny and broke his collar bone.... Not practice related.

Whittington reportedly had turf toe which appears to be more of a non-contact injury... not inherently practice related.

But maybe some minor injuries were more practice related... like Sadiq who sat out a couple games but also just wasn't as effective in others due to nagging injuries where he may have overdone it in practice... or potentially the games themselves.

Getting the right balance of practice and rest is certainly difficult.

As Cig said when asked about short practice time, "My Dad before me, and I came up from programs where you had very little depth and could not afford to lose starting players.

We didn't have to worry about this when I was coaching at Alabama."

David, you are one of my 'go-to guys' when it comes to Xs and Os and insightful information.

Why is OBD experiencing all of these injuries in the Moneyball sports? Fortunately, OBD in the 2025 regular season suffered O-line injuries in games where OBD had that superior roster.

Do we blame Fortuna? Or are the S+C programs and practice regimes not working? I simply don't get it. A rough patch over one season? Fine. Stuff happens.

In today's CFB and CBB world, you do not have the depth to weather the loss of top players.

I would appreciate your thoughts on what could be my erroneous observation.

Perhaps it is simply Fortuna, just more of the short end of the stick that had more Indiana fans in the stands in Atlanta than would have been the case if the game had been played in Bloomington? That had OBD in 2024-25 playing Ohio State and not the winner of Boise State at Indiana in the Rose Bowl.

How about a Fair Shake? 🤬 Can I get a Witness?

David Marsh's post is right on IMHO. Lanning and the younger Ducks got bounced rather rudely by the older ,more experienced team in both 24 and 25. 2023 Natty champ Michigan was an older, very experienced squad, as were the 21 and 22 Georgia national championship squads. Lanning will have his successes, I believe, if he can put together similar squads, which will involve convincing some of his older contributors to stick around to run it back another year in Eugene for the pride and pleasure of raising the big trophy at the end of the year.

How many teams in college football history have had six games in three years against championship game teams? I only know of one.

All three teams were having their magic year at the time. Lanning needs to learn some things to get over the hump for sure. The fact that he’s already at the hump in years 2-4 gets over looked.

Most coaches never even approach the hump in their very successful careers.

I think Dan can win the big one but he just needs all the stars to align. 1) No key injuries, 2) 2nd and 3rd year players, 3) The luck of the draw for conference games as well as the CFP. So far at least one of those three have kept the Ducks out of the picture. Well all that and IMO the inability to make adjustments at the half.

I'm still waiting for the Ducks to look like the team that has the 'It' factor and seems unstoppable.

Has coach Lanning reached his peak?

H, E, double hickey stick NO!!!

At least that's my opinion.

We have gotten so used to winning, we've lost track of reality.

Last year we lost to...the National champions.

The year before, we lost to...the national champions.

The year before that, we lost to...a team who played in the championship game.

And that was in Lanning's first 4 years of even being a head coach!

Surely DL is allowed a learning curve. He has only won 13 games in each of the last 2 seasons. And in the B1G, not the Pac(st8).

All this while the CFB landscape has been changing and shifting almost weekly. How long would it have taken Saben to win it all if he had to deal with NIL and constant portal changes?

Motivating players already making bank can't be as easy as you'd think.

I have confidence Dan Lanning will win it all, sooner than later.

20 hours ago, Jon Joseph said:

As Cig said when asked about short practice time, "My Dad before me, and I came up from programs where you had very little depth and could not afford to lose starting players.

We didn't have to worry about this when I was coaching at Alabama."

David, you are one of my 'go-to guys' when it comes to Xs and Os and insightful information.

Why is OBD experiencing all of these injuries in the Moneyball sports? Fortunately, OBD in the 2025 regular season suffered O-line injuries in games where OBD had that superior roster.

Do we blame Fortuna? Or are the S+C programs and practice regimes not working? I simply don't get it. A rough patch over one season? Fine. Stuff happens.

In today's CFB and CBB world, you do not have the depth to weather the loss of top players.

I would appreciate your thoughts on what could be my erroneous observation.

Perhaps it is simply Fortuna, just more of the short end of the stick that had more Indiana fans in the stands in Atlanta than would have been the case if the game had been played in Bloomington? That had OBD in 2024-25 playing Ohio State and not the winner of Boise State at Indiana in the Rose Bowl.

How about a Fair Shake? 🤬 Can I get a Witness?

Here are a couple thoughts...

Bad luck two years in a row but for two different reasons.

In 2024 we get to play Ohio State in the Rose Bowl... absolutely awful draw and EVERYONE has said that the No.1 seed should not have been given that draw of teams. In 2025 Indiana as the No.1 seed got the winner of Bama and Oklahoma. Frankly neither teams were that good for basically the opposite reasons. Bama had a good passing offense, nothing on the ground, and a defense that was fickle. Oklahoma had no real offense but had a solid defense. Arguably Bama shouldn't have made the playoff but the fear of the SEC over-weighed the committee's fear of Notre Dame. I think if Oregon had the 8/9 draw last year they get that second round win and move on.

There was some injury problems in that Rose Bowl Game. Evan Stewart didn't play and his field stretching ability being lost hampered the offense. Jordan James went out with injury that hurt the run game... but by that point Ohio State had already destroyed the Ducks. The reality is that the Ducks played an Ohio State team that was super talented and finally discovered their chemistry. If they had done that sooner in the season they probably would have left Autzen with a win.

This year we had a big injury bug coupled with the transfer portal. I won't go over the injuries again... but just think of the transfers out as well. We lost Jayden Limar who was getting the first string reps at the start of the year. I was never really sold on Limar to be honest but he definitely flashed success. Then there was Makhi Hughes who was a shock that he didn't make the rotation in a meaningful way coming in as the best transfer running back. But he transferred out and wasn't with the team either. That and the injuries left the Ducks with a change of pace freshman back (who will be great) and Harris who was the No.5 back at the start of the season.

The other reality is that his least season's offensive line was a step back from previous years... I think the interior was better than in 2024 where Dave Iuli and Pregnon in 2025 were better at guard than Iuli/Harper and Strother. But the tackles were a far cry from the 2024 team, the Connerly was much much better than World.

Lanning's Oregon teams have depth and during the regular season the Ducks have only suffered one loss in B1G play. They weathered the injury storm. But when you combine injuries AND transfers at the end of the season there just isn't any depth.

Young teams suffer transfer outs... veteran teams don't. Indiana didn't suffer from the portal opening up because their first and second string were all veterans who were basically out of eligibility. No where to transfer to because they are out of time. The Young Ducks on the other hand saw a bunch transfer out of the second string because they could play elsewhere.

I don't think there is any ONE factor in either season but a multitude of things. Some big and some small but when combined make it difficult to finish out the season.