Omigosh! How Can Baylor Be No. 5 in Recruiting?

[Charles Fischer]

My FishDuck Friends, to explain this aspect of why we should not get concerned about early high rankings...let's look at the Rivals ranking right now for the 2023 class right here.

 

You will see that Baylor is No. 5 in the nation, has 20 verbals, (which means they are close to being done) with sixteen 3-Star verbals and only three 4-Star verbals.

 

Now let's look at the final 2022 recruiting class rankings on Rivals right here, and see who is No. 32 (West Virginia) with the same sixteen 3-Star verbals and only three 4-Star players signed.  The Mountaineers actually had more total recruits (23 to 20) than the Baylor example, but they do not end up in the top grouping at all.

 

So...what is No. 5 now will end up being No. 32 later....so don't worry about Washington's or Baylor's ranking now.  We will pass them later!  If you extrapolate the classes to 24 recruits each....UW will end up with two 4-Star players and Oregon will up with twelve 4 & 5-Star recruits.  (Not that it will happen... but you get the idea-don't get wonked out now)

 

What matters is how you finish up, the quality of the class, not where you are now.

 

[Annie]

I wonder, over the years, when all is said and done, how much have the number of stars per player has mattered all that much once they starting playing in college?

[Charles Fischer]

Yes it matters in the big picture, not with individual players.  The higher the Stars, the higher the probability of that player helping your team, IMHO.  Now we have had a ton of 2-Star and 3-Star players in the past who have excelled, but they are in the vast minority.

 

And then there is the question that Steve Greatwood would ask..."how do we measure within a recruit what is right here?"  (Pointing to his heart)

 

 

[2002duck]

I don't think anyone is worried about where Washington or Baylor are ranked right now. Many people just like seeing 4 and 5 star players announcing to the world that they are committing to Oregon. It's a "what have you done for me lately" society out there. There's a reason why year-round Christmas decoration stores exist. We want to win, and we want to win now! 

[Charles Fischer]

There are articles out there that provide the data...  "Recruiting rankings matter when building championship contenders. They’re just as critical when projecting if a player will reach the NFL."

 

What Do Those Star Ratings Mean? - Last Word on College Football

LASTWORDONSPORTS.COM

---

When discussing recruits, we often hear that star ratings mean very little. We analyze the question: what do those star ratings mean exactly?

 

Do stars matter in recruiting? The data says they do - Footballscoop

FOOTBALLSCOOP.COM

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Put any coach in front of a microphone and ask him if stars matter and he'll probably say one or all of the following: "We don't look at that stuff." "We trust

 

NFL Draft: The 'Stars Don't Matter' Narrative Gets Crushed

 

2020 NFL Draft: The 'stars don't matter' narrative gets crushed

247SPORTS.COM

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You hear it every year: Stars don't matter. But the NFL Draft (like it does every year) showed that sentiment to be incorrect.

 

[JDuck]

Ummm...I wouldn't be surprised if we have 17 or so 4 and 5 star kids, with a record number of 5's.  Yeah mutts and bears are no worry

[AnotherOD]

I must admit, after years of paying close attention, the Portal has pulled me away from day-to-day it even week-to-week pouring over recruiting.

 

You follow the ups and downs with a guy like Suamataia (#36 player overall, #6 OT), and the Ducks get the call, as a Duck fan you get pumped, and he comes to the UO for a cup of Gatorade and is out the door in the portal.

 

Or you follow a recruit you really think may take a bit of time but could be an exceptional college player, like a Jayson Jones, and it looks like he actually is going to be a serious player, only mostly for Auburn.

 

However, a transfer like Christian Gonzalez or Bo Nix does even that out some, just less so for emphasis on high school recruiting.

 

Overall, I imagine most of us are still looking/hoping for another shot at that NC. To that point, to really be a player, I would say a program needs a "blue chip" ratio of about 66% (last time I looked Oregon was about 58%-59%) and at least a dozen top 60 players in the rankings composite (I think Oregon has about 7). I think reaching that level is at least in the window of possibility.

 

[DazeNconfused]

On 6/29/2022 at 8:33 PM, AnotherOD said:

I must admit, after years of paying close attention, the Portal has pulled me away from day-to-day it even week-to-week pouring over recruiting.

 

You follow the ups and downs with a guy like Suamataia (#36 player overall, #6 OT), and the Ducks get the call, as a Duck fan you get pumped, and he comes to the UO for a cup of Gatorade and is out the door in the portal.

 

Or you follow a recruit you really think may take a bit of time but could be an exceptional college player, like a Jayson Jones, and it looks like he actually is going to be a serious player, only mostly for Auburn.

 

However, a transfer like Christian Gonzalez or Bo Nix does even that out some, just less so for emphasis on high school recruiting.

 

Overall, I imagine most of us are still looking/hoping for another shot at that NC. To that point, to really be a player, I would say a program needs a "blue chip" ratio of about 66% (last time I looked Oregon was about 58%-59%) and at least a dozen top 60 players in the rankings composite (I think Oregon has about 7). I think reaching that level is at least in the window of possibility.

 

Oregon will next be in the national championship game when the have Heisman contending level QB play regardless of 58% or a 66% blue-chip ratio. We won't be in the Natty with a 75% blue chip ratio and AB type of QB play

[Nevada Dawg]

On 6/29/2022 at 9:05 PM, DazeNconfused said:

Oregon will next be in the national championship game when the have Heisman contending level QB play regardless of 58% or a 66% blue-chip ratio. We won't be in the Natty with a 75% blue chip ratio and AB type of QB play

I don't know. The roughly 75% blue chip ratio and "AB" type  of QB worked pretty well for Georgia last  year!

 

Of course that QB is vastly underrated just showing one of the flaws in the star ratings system, I suspect this QB will do just fine running the show this year.

[Duck 1972]

On 6/29/2022 at 9:05 PM, DazeNconfused said:

Oregon will next be in the national championship game when the have Heisman contending level QB play regardless of 58% or a 66% blue-chip ratio. We won't be in the Natty with a 75% blue chip ratio and AB type of QB play

AB wasn't the best but I don't believe we need a Heisman level QB. So no offense, but S. Bennett of UGA disproves that. Yes he had the best defense without any major injuries that I remember. He was an adequate game mgr. He and his team beat the Heisman winner admittedly with a weakened WR corp.

 

If AB would have been better at throwing the ball and we didn't have an unheard of amount of long-term injuries that devastated some of our key positions of LB, RB, Safeties,TE, WR, and an OL that weren't able to start the same 5 players in 13 games. Who knows if we don't make it last year. We did go into the "shoe", control the game, and beat tOSU.

 

I posit the lack of continuity on the OL affected our pass blocking. Which could be one of the reasons why AB wasn't better. In fact there was the sack, at the half of the 3 game, that hurt him and that's where it seemed to fall apart. He didn't seem to be the same QB until the 2nd half against Oklahoma. Was he playing hurt or just skittish and scared of TO. Our previous QB was benched for confidence problems and PIs. Or was AB just

inconsistent. 

 

I'm not discounting MC's problems also stopping us. If we had a better coach without a majority of the injuries would last year's team have had a chance. I definitely believe so. 

 

So I guess I'm saying there are a lot of factors that provide for playing for a Natty and winning one.

 

[shawnski]

On 6/29/2022 at 9:05 PM, DazeNconfused said:

Oregon will next be in the national championship game when the have Heisman contending level QB play regardless of 58% or a 66% blue-chip ratio. We won't be in the Natty with a 75% blue chip ratio and AB type of QB play

This is truth

The only exception was in 2010 with Darron Thomas. He was very good, not Heisman.

 

However, the TEAM was great across the board, played as a team, and the spread fast paced O took the world by storm.

 

Lighting in a bottle if you will 

[sad BIG12 fan]

I believe rich schools with passionate fan bases are going to make waves with PAY FOR PLAY, I mean NIL. Specifically schools in Texas. Texans take sports(FOOTBALL) very serious.  Just look at what Texas & A&M are doing. Don't be surprised to see TECH, Baylor, TCU & Houston do the same. BTW Baylor, TCU & SMU are rich private schools with donors with deep pockets. 

[sad BIG12 fan]

BIG12     247th recruiting rankings 

3. TEXAS 

7. TEXAS TECH 

9. Baylor

10. Cincinnati (Future member)

15. WVU

22. ISU
24. TCU

37. SMU

42. OU

45. OSU

51. KSU

54. A&M

65. KU

72. UCF (Future member)

83. BYU

97. Houston 

 

 

 

 

 

[sad BIG12 fan]

PAC12    247

11. USC

17. Washington 

26. Arizona 

29. Colorado 

35. Oregon 

49. Stanford 

58. OSU 

61. UCLA

63. UTAH

67. Washington ST

71. CAL

80. ASU

 

 

[DazeNconfused]

On 6/29/2022 at 10:22 PM, Nevada Dawg said:

I don't know. The roughly 75% blue chip ratio and "AB" type  of QB worked pretty well for Georgia last  year!

 

Of course that QB is vastly underrated just showing one of the flaws in the star ratings system, I suspect this QB will do just fine running the show this year.

 

On 6/29/2022 at 10:30 PM, Duck 1972 said:

AB wasn't the best but I don't believe we need a Heisman level QB. So no offense, but S. Bennett of UGA disproves that. Yes he had the best defense without any major injuries that I remember. He was an adequate game mgr. He and his team beat the Heisman winner admittedly with a weakened WR corp.

Not to be rude but you guys are miles off on Stenson Bennet. 

AB was nowhere close to him, and Stenson Bennet is not a "game manager"

 

Here are the Heisman finalist QB's for last year RTG along with Stenson and AB.

Stenson has the 2nd highest RTG and 2nd highest yards per completion, "game managers" don't do that.

 

I'd say Stenson Bennet gave Heisman level play for every pass he threw; he just didn't throw at the same volume. There is no way in hell AB takes UG to the Natty last year.

 

Bryce Young RTG 167.5 with 8.9 yards per completion 

CJ Stroud RTG 186.6 with 10.1 yards per completion 

Kenny Picket RTG 165.3 with 8.7 yards per completion 

Stenson Bennet RTG 176.7 with 10.0 yards per completion 

AB RTG 140.1 with 7.7 yards per pass

 

EDIT..  

Just for comparison Bo Nix last year had his best RTG at 130 and yards per completion at 7.1 both WORSE than AB.

 

If I recall right Marcus, and Vernon Adams were both around 179 -181 RTG their last year and Herbs last year wasn't close to them.

VA goes to NY if he doesn't get hurt in 2015, he was a Baller and we probably make the playoffs

 

2nd Edit.. just to back up that VA to NY claim, compare Deshuan Watson who was a Heisman finalist to VA

 

VA 179.1 RTG on 259 attempts with 10.2 yards per completion. 26 TD and 6 picks

Watson 156.3 RTG on 491 attempts with 8.4 yards per completion. 35 TD and 13 picks. 

 

VA was Amazing that year and the other QB's threw over 100 pass attempts while VA was hurt in a dialed back offense. You have to think VA get another 150 pass attempts if he never got hurt. I'd guess VA throws for over another 1000 yards and over 10 more TD's in the regular season. VA gave us Heisman level play

 

Edited June 30, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[DazeNconfused]

On 6/30/2022 at 8:32 AM, shawnski said:

This is truth

The only exception was in 2010 with Darron Thomas. He was very good, not Heisman.

 

However, the TEAM was great across the board, played as a team, and the spread fast paced O took the world by storm.

 

Lighting in a bottle if you will 

That team had some great players, but Chips Scheme took us to the Natty. Chip was miles ahead of the crowd for that brief minute with his Scheme. Nick Saban was crying the Tempo Spread had to go because it was going to wear defensive guys out and get them hurt. 

 

Remember when coaches first started having defensive players play hurt to slow us down? haha

 

Then Nick decided to quit crying and join in, and he hired Laned Kiffin

 

Edited June 30, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[DazeNconfused]

On 6/30/2022 at 9:08 AM, sad BIG12 fan said:

BIG12     247th recruiting rankings 

3. TEXAS 

7. TEXAS TECH 

9. Baylor

10. Cincinnati (Future member)

15. WVU

22. ISU
24. TCU

37. SMU

42. OU

45. OSU

51. KSU

54. A&M

65. KU

72. UCF (Future member)

83. BYU

97. Houston 

 

 

 

 

 

Charles has address this as far as Baylor, Texas Tech, Oak St. Those teams always have a class that is 80% 3-star kids with a handful of 4 star Blue Chips sprinkled in. NIL isn't going to change that much I reckon because they are not Blue Blood schools.

 

Now Texas is a Blue Blood and they have nailed it so far and are siting 3#, and I'd guess they have plenty of NIL money. Oklahoma is a Blue Blood and they will jump up by the end Both will have 15ish Blue Chips.

Edited June 30, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[Washington Waddler]

On 6/30/2022 at 9:57 AM, DazeNconfused said:

Then Nick decided to quit crying and join in, and he hired Laned Kiffin

     Crocodile tears. Saban was doing what he always does - stall and confuse with a media smoke screen in order to buy some time to get up to speed with the latest innovation.

[Washington Waddler]

     In spite of all the contributing factors, the significant difference between SB and AB last year was that SB upped his game and AB didn’t.