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Clearly in Left Field...The PAC Retains All Schools

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On 7/1/2022 at 2:42 PM, OST8 said:

Greetings.  An Oklahoma State fan here to see what the temperature was out west.

Welcome!

 

Love your coach! Telling it like it is.

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I assume you are talking about this study.

 

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MEDIUM.COM

TV viewership isn’t always the best way to measure a college football program’s value. But here’s how each school ranks since 2015.

 

At a quick glance it appears the author included viewership of games carried by the Pac-12 network.  If so the number of eyeballs is skewed by the pathetic arrangement network engineered by Larry Scott.  

 

For example in 2020 the Pac-12 network had 14.8 million subscribers, the SEC and B1G reportedly had over 50 million.  Didn't find numbers for the Big 12 but I'm certain they are better than the Pac.

 

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On 7/2/2022 at 1:43 PM, OST8 said:

In reference to your comment that Oregon isn't the equivalent of TTech or Oklahoma State...I actually don't disagree with you, I just don't understand why that's the case.

 

The reason it feels confusing is that all I ever hear about in this whole conference realignment circus is that it's driven by football TV money which is all tied in with how many eyeballs do each school draw when they are on TV. 

 

IF that's the case from 2015-2019 Oklahoma State ranked 19th in the country in terms of TV ratings with Oregon at 26th and TTech at 38th. And yet, I'm with you in terms of just...sensing that Oregon is more "valuable" than Oak State. I just don't understand why. Is it the perceived ceiling of each school? Is it academics? Oklahoma State is an R1 research university (next step up is AAU), so while it's no Stanford it's considered very solid academically (on paper anyways).

 

What are your thoughts there?

If you can answer this question, perhaps I can help you with yours.

 

Why is it that while I'm indulging in the tossing back of a few barley sodas tonight at the Barstool Sportsbook at Hollywood Casino in York, PA (over 2.5k miles from Eugene), I will see Oregon sportswear, and would heavily wager there’s not a hint of Ok. State (York to Stillwater approx. 1.2k miles) gear on the premises? 

 

After reading CalBear95’s comment again, I see that my thoughts on this evening's festivities support Cal’s primary point which is focusing on branding.  Pretty sure Oregon doesn’t have too many rivals when it comes to branding a product. 

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On 7/2/2022 at 10:43 AM, OST8 said:

In reference to your comment that Oregon isn't the equivalent of TTech or Oklahoma State...I actually don't disagree with you, I just don't understand why that's the case.

 

The reason it feels confusing is that all I ever hear about in this whole conference realignment circus is that it's driven by football TV money which is all tied in with how many eyeballs do each school draw when they are on TV. 

 

IF that's the case from 2015-2019 Oklahoma State ranked 19th in the country in terms of TV ratings with Oregon at 26th and TTech at 38th. And yet, I'm with you in terms of just...sensing that Oregon is more "valuable" than Oak State. I just don't understand why. Is it the perceived ceiling of each school? Is it academics? Oklahoma State is an R1 research university (next step up is AAU), so while it's no Stanford it's considered very solid academically (on paper anyways).

 

What are your thoughts there?

 Brand value.  If you were to as an independent firm to place a monetary value on any of the remaining PAC and BXII football brands, I think Oregon comes out ahead by a bit. 
 

Oregon has invested a ton along these lines for decades.  
 

Oregon and UW are screwed due to geography.  So long as realignment is a function of the entirety of a school’s sports media rights, the west coast is doomed.  There aren’t enough strong football brands that warrant a conference creating insane logistics 

 

The SEC can grow to 20+ w/out growing its geographic footprint.   
 

Oregon and UW are looking at being left for dead and not being able to do a thing about it. 
 

The BXII could be flat out cold blooded and strand those programs and they would very very quickly become irrelevant 

 

If I were PK, I would write a $750MM check to the B1G to ensure Oregon FB is included ($40MM/year to help offset dilution of new media deal) until the ACC unlocks.  
 

Once the ACC comes open and if Oregon can stay a huge brand until then, the danger will have passed.  
 

USC et alia are trying to kill Oregon now.  This, IMHO, is existential 

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On 7/2/2022 at 11:53 AM, CalBear95 said:

 

 

If I were PK, I would write a $750MM check to the B1G to ensure Oregon FB is included ($40MM/year to help offset dilution of new media deal) until the ACC unlocks.  
 

Once the ACC comes open and if Oregon can stay a huge brand until then, the danger will have passed.  
 

USC et alia are trying to kill Oregon now.  This, IMHO, is existential 

Nike stock is already down--just sayin

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On 7/2/2022 at 11:58 AM, 1Ducker1 said:

Nike stock is already down--just sayin

Dude is worth $43.5Bn.   

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On 7/2/2022 at 12:03 PM, CalBear95 said:

Dude is worth $43.5Bn.   

Not if he sells tomorrow-just sayin 

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Folks, LOL at myself.....my cousin does not run the Big 10.....so everything I post is a wild guess for entertainment.....however I'am glad to read so many polite responses.

 

Oregon fans have a high amount of class and are willing to discuss topics. 

 

But......just to be clear

 

As a big 10 grad and having lived in the midwest for a long time (I did live in Oregon for 20 years or so) the Big 10 still has a sort of arrogant attitude toward other conferences regarding academics. It views itself as not quite the Ivy League but a good second choice. 

 

They still look down their noses at the SEC for having schools like.....well you know. 

 

I'am pretty sure they viewed UCLA and USC as the plums of the PAC 12. So they scooped them up because all the other boxes were checked. Big, rich and large markets and good sports. However if those schools had been Miss St in LA.....I doubt the deal would have been made even with all the cash on the table.  

 

IMO money and sports are important but with this group the academics still has a big say in who gets in.

 

Its like a country club of old money that is looking at Bill Gates and says, Oh.....I understand his dad worked for a living.....does he really fit with us. 

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On 7/2/2022 at 10:43 AM, OST8 said:

In reference to your comment that Oregon isn't the equivalent of TTech or Oklahoma State...I actually don't disagree with you, I just don't understand why that's the case.

 

The reason it feels confusing is that all I ever hear about in this whole conference realignment circus is that it's driven by football TV money which is all tied in with how many eyeballs do each school draw when they are on TV. 

 

IF that's the case from 2015-2019 Oklahoma State ranked 19th in the country in terms of TV ratings with Oregon at 26th and TTech at 38th. And yet, I'm with you in terms of just...sensing that Oregon is more "valuable" than Oak State. I just don't understand why. Is it the perceived ceiling of each school? Is it academics? Oklahoma State is an R1 research university (next step up is AAU), so while it's no Stanford it's considered very solid academically (on paper anyways).

 

What are your thoughts there?

I think when you look at the overall numbers, Oregon is there with anyone else in the west.   They have the No. 7 ranked fan base based on numbers, last season they were 10th in TV viewership, they have been the No 1 team in the west in terms of viewership over the past decade, and they are ranked 15th by Forbes on the most valuable athletic programs list. In addition, 6 of the 8 top ranked games last year in terms of viewership in the PAC-12 were Oregon games. Oregon is a true national brand right now.  
 

Things probably holding Oregon back right now from being an easy yes is that they are in a smaller TV market and although they are an AAU school, getting ranked 375th in academics by the WSJ, including 12th in the PAC-12 is not a good look. 

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On 7/2/2022 at 1:11 PM, fred flintstone said:

Folks, LOL at myself.....my cousin does not run the Big 10.....so everything I post is a wild guess for entertainment.....however I'am glad to read so many polite responses.

 

Oregon fans have a high amount of class and are willing to discuss topics. 

 

But......just to be clear

 

As a big 10 grad and having lived in the midwest for a long time (I did live in Oregon for 20 years or so) the Big 10 still has a sort of arrogant attitude toward other conferences regarding academics. It views itself as not quite the Ivy League but a good second choice. 

 

They still look down their noses at the SEC for having schools like.....well you know. 

 

I'am pretty sure they viewed UCLA and USC as the plums of the PAC 12. So they scooped them up because all the other boxes were checked. Big, rich and large markets and good sports. However if those schools had been Miss St in LA.....I doubt the deal would have been made even with all the cash on the table.  

 

IMO money and sports are important but with this group the academics still has a big say in who gets in.

 

Its like a country club of old money that is looking at Bill Gates and says, Oh.....I understand his dad worked for a living.....does he really fit with us. 

In terms of academics UCLA, Cal, and Stanford are more elite than anything currently in the B1G. In terms of high profile sports, Cal certainly drops from that cohort.  
 

UW ranks 5th in public institutions and has a strong commitment to high profile sports 

 

Oregon is AAU and definitely strong in high profile sports 

 

All of these schools clear the snob hurdle in that regard (and as noted, many B1G schools should actually be looking up their noses at them).

 

I would be curious if Oregon and UW agreed to effectively purchase their dilution whether the B1G would let them in.  
 

 

Edited by CalBear95
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I remember not to long ago top teams from back East saying they wouldn't schedule us for a home vrs home because of travel cost and our stadiums being to small. Sure they would play us at their place but not at ours.  In fact a lot of them cancelled after at first agreeing especially after seeing others getting beat. Fear is magnanimous isn't it.

 

Then the time difference being a problem for the West going there and not as much the East coming here. Look at the NFL. It's a noticeable problem for West going to the East Coast and it's because of the time and climate differences.

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Edurank seems little more objective and Nebraska is in the 60s, Oregon in the 80s.  Outside of that, the other schools are would represent 3 of the top 4 institutions in the league 

Edited by CalBear95
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Logistics do not matter one bit. See USX and UCL&A. ND will or won't go and the B1G will still want to field 4 teams regardless. Which 4 teams add the biggest clout? ND, Oregon, UW, and...? It's going to take some work to keep the pac around and with it Oregon.

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On 7/2/2022 at 1:28 PM, ICamel said:

Welcome!

 

Love your coach! Telling it like it is.

I have had so many mixed emotions about that evening haha.  I can sum it up by saying, what he did and had to say I 100% back.  HOW he went about it.....not so much.  I'll say this, that tirade put him on the map ha.

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On 7/2/2022 at 1:53 PM, CalBear95 said:

 Brand value.  If you were to as an independent firm to place a monetary value on any of the remaining PAC and BXII football brands, I think Oregon comes out ahead by a bit. 
 

Oregon has invested a ton along these lines for decades.  
 

Oregon and UW are screwed due to geography.  So long as realignment is a function of the entirety of a school’s sports media rights, the west coast is doomed.  There aren’t enough strong football brands that warrant a conference creating insane logistics 

 

The SEC can grow to 20+ w/out growing its geographic footprint.   
 

Oregon and UW are looking at being left for dead and not being able to do a thing about it. 
 

The BXII could be flat out cold blooded and strand those programs and they would very very quickly become irrelevant 

 

If I were PK, I would write a $750MM check to the B1G to ensure Oregon FB is included ($40MM/year to help offset dilution of new media deal) until the ACC unlocks.  
 

Once the ACC comes open and if Oregon can stay a huge brand until then, the danger will have passed.  
 

USC et alia are trying to kill Oregon now.  This, IMHO, is existential 

I agree with the brand value.  I feel like you guys were about a decade ahead of us in the "re-birth" of your program (new stadium, biggest Nike uniform deal behind you guys, etc) and that we really did use the Duck model to put a new brand on our program and it has largely worked.  Again we're just a decade behind and in fly-over country.

 

Whether it's with the BIG10 or with a re-worked PAC12 you guys will be okay.  I do think, one way or another, we will end up with a 3rd megaconference that will include some of the PAC/Big12/ACC schools.  Not sure exactly when or how that will look but I think it's inevitable.

 

 

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