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Clearly in Left Field...The PAC Retains All Schools

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Greetings.  An Oklahoma State fan here to see what the temperature was out west.  We've been living this craziness for the last year.  It's not good for the blood pressure, the emotions, or the soul for that matter.  Fairly sure I've cycled through the stages of grief 2 or 3 times haha.

 

I don't think schools like UO or UW or Oklahoma St or Baylor really need to worry....in the long run anyways.  As I do think eventually the top 64 schools or so will eventually be in a new situation.  It's all about eyeballs on TVs and both the Ducks and Cowboys move the needle there.  (See link below for some interesting look at the numbers)

 

Average TV Ratings 2015-2019

 

It's schools like Oregon St and Kansas that need to be concerned.  Although KU's bball program will likely save it's backside.

 

Just to lighten the mood.  My home message board orangepower.com decided the Big12 and Pac12 should mesh and call it the Biggie Pac with (naturally) the Pac schools being the west schools and the Biggie schools being the eastern most schools.  Somebody even made a graphic to go with it.  Made me lol.

 

My advice...just take deep breaths!  It's likely this rollercoaster isn't finished ha. With pockets like Phil Knight's and the solid TV numbers/performance UO has you guys will absolutely land on your feet.

 

conferences biggiepac.png

 

Edit: My biggest hope is that we can somehow take the creme de la creme of the Pac12/Big12/ACC.  THAT would actually make for a splash.  ACC GOR is the biggest hurdle to that though.

Edited by OST8
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On 7/1/2022 at 2:37 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

I will say this. As a football fan I look forward to the USC/Ohio State conference championship games.

USC has only made the Pac12 championship game thrice. Not sure I would assume they will be playing for the B1G championship anytime soon.

Edited by DUCati855
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On 7/1/2022 at 2:34 PM, 1Ducker1 said:

well maybe but Stanford has a small viewership and terrible attendance.

I know, but it is not like Rutgers and Maryland are any better. Academics, grants, and other things are at play here I am afraid. 

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On 7/1/2022 at 2:46 PM, GeotechDuck said:

I know, but it is not like Rutgers and Maryland are any better. Academics, grants, and other things are at play here I am afraid. 

Academics in todays college football --maybe yesterday but not in todays football. And its all speculation as of now.

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On 7/1/2022 at 2:42 PM, OST8 said:

My home message board orangepower.com decided the Big12 and Pac12 should mesh

That might be the best way for all to survive if we cannot be in the B1G, and I love the graphic.  And do chime in when you have thoughts, as we invite reasonable fans from all schools.  WELCOME!

 

(BTW...always loved your offense!)

Mr. FishDuck

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On 7/1/2022 at 5:44 PM, DUCati855 said:

USC has only made the Pac12 championship game thrice. Not sure I would assume they will be playing for the B1G championship anytime soon.

That’s because they had Helton and he couldn’t recruit. Riley will have them in a much better position. 

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On 7/1/2022 at 2:11 PM, fred flintstone said:

Sorry......but if ND agrees it will probably not be Oregon. 

 

Cal, Stanford or Washington all fit better if my guess is correct. 

 

They all have more powerful academics. larger schools, very large markets and don't present a situation in the NIL era in which a rich person who is extremely supportive can outbid the rest of the league for talent. 

 

Even USC or UCLA, now members of the Big 10 might veto Oregon membership. They want the southern Cal recruiting for themselves. Weakening Oregon only helps them. Having Oregon in an expanded Big 12 does that. Playing Stanford and Cal is an easier and closer road game for the LA teams. Neither recruits well in CA. 

 

As a USC fan I don't see what USC did positively in the long term. The travel is going to kill them.......but.........they sure screwed the rest of the conference......particularly, Washington, Oregon, Cal and Stanford. The other pac 12 members really never belonged in a power 5 or can make a good fit with the Big 12 easily. 

 

IMO Oregon is going to have to make lemonade out of lemons and join the Big 12......if they can......and since most of the markets in an expanded BIG 12 are growing much faster than the midwest.....might end up just fine.  

 

 

 

USC and UCLA aren’t members yet so they lack veto power.  
 

Your comments around rich alumni being an issue sort of falls apart when you think of your school and tOSU. 
 

I think you are losing the plot a little.  This is now about brands.  Oregon is a massive draw and a natural rival to SC given resources commitment and fan loyalty. 
 

Why would you toss Oregon over the side?  It isn’t the equivalent of Texas Tech or Oklahoma State

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On 7/1/2022 at 4:53 PM, Charles Fischer said:

That might be the best way for all to survive if we cannot be in the B1G, and I love the graphic.  And do chime in when you have thoughts, as we invite reasonable fans from all schools.  WELCOME!

 

(BTW...always loved your offense!)

I appreciate the welcome!  I too have really enjoyed the Ducks offense over the years.  As I recall that offense rolled right over us back in 2008 or 2009 haha.  I hate that the desire for money has overcome the love of tradition in college football but that is where we find ourselves.  Again I think both our programs will be okay in the end.

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On 7/1/2022 at 2:34 PM, 1Ducker1 said:

well maybe but Stanford has a small viewership and terrible attendance.

Stanford and the Farm are the antithesis if B1G with their huge stadiums that are always packed with a 100k people and are loud. 

 

You could study or write a paper in Stanford's stadium during a game. 

 

Autzen may not be as large as B1G stadiums but it is certainly loud enough. 

 

Stanford will be involved if ND is involved but I don't think they carry enough weight on their own to warrent an addition over two west coast schools that will be revenue generators. 

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I’d bet my NIL money that ND turns down B1G

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Guest Axel
On 7/1/2022 at 2:11 PM, fred flintstone said:

Even USC or UCLA, now members of the Big 10 might veto Oregon membership.

USC or UCLA could not prevent the Big Ten from adopting Oregon, a national brand, with a larger fan base than any other West Coast school, including USC. The other Big Ten schools care about TV ratings and the Ducks would deliver that in spades, clubs, hearts, and diamonds. 

 

It is of course understandable that USC and UCLA would want to weaken Oregon, a school that has dominated them both on the gridiron during the last 15 years. It's highly doubtful that the Big Ten would accept Stanford, a program on the decline, and allow Oregon to get away. 

 

If Notre Dame does agree to go to the Big Ten, a likely scenario would be for Oregon, Washington, and North Carolina to also join the party. USC and UCLA may hate Oregon and dislike Washington, but these L.A. schools would be grateful over time for two easier travel destinations during their sports seasons. 

 

Stewart Mandel, a college football analyst at The Athletic, stated earlier on the Paul Finebaum Show: "I think Oregon as a football program is desirable for a lot of different conferences." That would certainly include the Big Ten, and in my opinion, that is the most likely landing spot for the Ducks.

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On 7/1/2022 at 12:41 PM, GeotechDuck said:

That $50M is not an issue, as the $100M a year revenue sharing is double what ND makes in a year.  They will make that up after the first season. 

To your point, can lawyers get it done.  I don't see the money as an issue.  

I'm confused where you are getting that ND is going to get 100 million a year? The SEC deal with ESPN is 300 million a year, how is ND going to end up with 100 million for itself? Right now, I've read ND get $15 million a year from NBC.

 

Please explain what I'm missing or misunderstand of you post.

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On 7/1/2022 at 4:14 PM, Axel said:

Stewart Mandel, a college football analyst at The Athletic, stated earlier on the Paul Finebaum Show: "I think Oregon as a football program is desirable for a lot of different conferences." That would certainly include the Big Ten, and in my opinion, that is the most likely landing spot for the Ducks.

This is great to see. That article posted a while ago and now this show Oregon being a national brand is not just us tossing it out there. Oregon would be an asset to any conference, it kept the Pac-12 afloat the last decade. 

I hope that Crepea is right , Mullens is busy talking with other conferences and maybe that "academic prowess" insititution could tag along, like UCLA is doing with USC

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On 7/1/2022 at 4:30 PM, DazeNconfused said:

I'm confused where you are getting that ND is going to get 100 million a year? The SEC deal with ESPN is 300 million a year, how is ND going to end up with 100 million for itself? Right now, I've read ND get $15 million a year from NBC.

 

Please explain what I'm missing or misunderstand of you post.

The revenue sharing for the new BIG media deal is estimated at $80 to $100M per year per team.  It will be well over $1B with the addition of UCLA and USC. 

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On 7/1/2022 at 6:37 PM, GeotechDuck said:

The revenue sharing for the new BIG media deal is estimated at $80 to $100M per year per team. 

Thats funny to me because half those teams are not worth that--but we live in a world of stupid money so whatever.

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On 7/1/2022 at 4:30 PM, DazeNconfused said:

I'm confused where you are getting that ND is going to get 100 million a year? The SEC deal with ESPN is 300 million a year, how is ND going to end up with 100 million for itself? Right now, I've read ND get $15 million a year from NBC.

 

Please explain what I'm missing or misunderstand of you post.

If I am reading it correctly, ND gets about $38M a year from NBC.  They would get $80 to $100M a year from the BiG under the new media deal.  Expect them to say yes. 

Edited by GeotechDuck
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 Let's look at how league transfers have looked.

 

1 Nebraska hasn't won a title in the B1O in 20 yrs after being one of the best in their old league

2 Utah took them 11 yrs to win a weak PAC.

3 Colorado came in the PAC with the Utes no title.

4 TA&M they left 10 yrs ago and joined sec. Yet to win a title.

5 Missu left with A&M no title.

6 PSU, MD, Rutgers joined the B1O 6 yrs or so ago no titles.

7 TX and OK joining sec not figured to contend in the foreseeable future.

 

Not a pretty picture for USC and UCLA. Or U of O, UW , or whoever else transfers.

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On 7/1/2022 at 6:42 PM, Duck 1972 said:

 Let's look at how league transfers have looked.

 

1 Nebraska hasn't won a title in the B1O in 20 yrs after being one of the best in their old league

2 Utah took them 11 yrs to win a weak PAC.

3 Colorado came in the PAC with the Utes no title.

4 TA&M they left 10 yrs ago and joined sec. Yet to win a title.

5 Missu left with A&M no title.

6 PSU, MD, Rutgers joined the B1O 6 yrs or so ago no titles.

7 TX and OK joining sec not figured to contend in the foreseeable future.

 

Not a pretty picture for USC and UCLA. Or U of O, UW , or whoever else transfers.

This makes me feel a lot better!!

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Don't agree Fred flintstone.  I highly doubt they take Stanford on their own they don't bring in any additional revenue,   minimal eyeballs.  Even as a rival to Notre Dame, they already have USC they don't need Stanford.  If Notre Dame wants to continue playing Stanford it's an easy nonconference game.  Academics are an issue but it's not THE ISSUE.   This all about the money.

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At this point, if the PAC survives with Oregon in it, they need to move quickly and boldly. I think at least an immediate merger of PAC and Big 12 would make sense.

 

Add ACC, maybe, but only if those definitely coming include Clemson and UNC. If Notre Dame could somehow be pulled into that configuration, what a wonderful gut punch to the Big 10 (I'd love to see that, but not expecting it.)

 

It seems regional based conferences are no longer desired. So why not an expansion from coast to coast. 

 

Too bad the PAC didn't have the forethought to do this kind of thing two years ago, or at least as soon as OK and Texas announced for SEC. You had to see this coming as the Big 10 tried to compete.

 

I'm still sick to my stomach though. I don't see how all of this ends up being good for college sports, even if you are just talking about football.

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Began with Larry Scott and finished by USC & UCLA!

 

image.thumb.png.55c5126a542fd46fbc1b030aeee16fc8.png

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On 7/1/2022 at 6:37 PM, GeotechDuck said:

The revenue sharing for the new BIG media deal is estimated at $80 to $100M per year per team.  It will be well over $1B with the addition of UCLA and USC. 

 

On 7/1/2022 at 6:42 PM, GeotechDuck said:

If I am reading it correctly, ND gets about $38M a year from NBC.  They would get $80 to $100M a year from the BiG under the new media deal.  Expect them to say yes. 

I got to do some more research and reading because last I knew ND and NBC extended their deal in 2017 through 2025 and it was paying $15 million a year to ND. 

 

I don't get how the Big 10 is going to get a deal pay ND $80 to 100 million a year when the SEC new deal with ESPN pays the whole conference $300 million a year. 

 

For the Big 10 to share 80 to 100 million they would have to get a deal over 1 billion per year and who is going to pay the 3 times what ESPN just paid the SEC? If so, then the SEC sure signed a bad deal lol

 

I don't get it, but I'll do some reading and see if I can find what you read that's saying this.

 

Maybe I'm 100 miles behind how much the TV money being paid is inflated, thanks for scooping me on this. 

 

Edit.. just read the 1 billion a year on bloomberg... how cow!!!!

Edited by DazeNconfused
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On 7/2/2022 at 8:48 AM, DazeNconfused said:

Edit.. just read the 1 billion a year on bloomberg... how cow!!!!

Games will need to be 4-5 hours long to allow for all the commercials.  I will set the DVR and quit watching live.  Not sure it is a financially sustainable model.

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On 7/1/2022 at 5:06 PM, CalBear95 said:

USC and UCLA aren’t members yet so they lack veto power.  
 

Your comments around rich alumni being an issue sort of falls apart when you think of your school and tOSU. 
 

I think you are losing the plot a little.  This is now about brands.  Oregon is a massive draw and a natural rival to SC given resources commitment and fan loyalty. 
 

Why would you toss Oregon over the side?  It isn’t the equivalent of Texas Tech or Oklahoma State

In reference to your comment that Oregon isn't the equivalent of TTech or Oklahoma State...I actually don't disagree with you, I just don't understand why that's the case.

 

The reason it feels confusing is that all I ever hear about in this whole conference realignment circus is that it's driven by football TV money which is all tied in with how many eyeballs do each school draw when they are on TV. 

 

IF that's the case from 2015-2019 Oklahoma State ranked 19th in the country in terms of TV ratings with Oregon at 26th and TTech at 38th. And yet, I'm with you in terms of just...sensing that Oregon is more "valuable" than Oak State. I just don't understand why. Is it the perceived ceiling of each school? Is it academics? Oklahoma State is an R1 research university (next step up is AAU), so while it's no Stanford it's considered very solid academically (on paper anyways).

 

What are your thoughts there?

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On 7/1/2022 at 2:42 PM, OST8 said:

Greetings.  An Oklahoma State fan here to see what the temperature was out west.

Welcome!

 

Love your coach! Telling it like it is.

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