Mario Cristobal: Quarterback Killer

[FishDuck Article]

We’ve all heard the consensus point of view from Duck fans: Mario Cristobal regressed the development of Justin Herbert and Anthony Brown. Both QBs spent two years in Cristobal’s offense, but is that statement hyperbole — and is there information that could provide a definite answer? Taggart’s Offensive System Let Herbert Shine Herbert’s true sophomore year in 2017 under new ...

 

 

Mario Cristobal: Quarterback Killer

FISHDUCK.COM

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We've all heard the consensus point of view from Duck fans: Mario Cristobal regressed the development of Justin Herbert and Anthony...

Edited August 17, 2022 by Dr Hilarius
typo

[HappyToBeADuck]

Thanks DnC for the article and laying out the stats. Numbers just dont lie. QB regression was evident for us to see.........

 

2019 and 2021 brought a combined record of 22-6. That should be enough for this fan to be excited about. It wasn't enough thay MC throttled back his QB's but he took the excitement out of the games. For me, they were not fun to watch. The games were not must see TV. Our customers stopped asking if we could get them tickets to Duck home games. Usually 5 to 10 customer requests per game in 2018 to none in 2021. (Pandemic certainly a factor) No requests yet for 2022.

 

Not only were the starting QB's regressing but there wasn't any progession by the backup QB's. At least it appears there was none or very little. There were a number of games where AB should have been benched and the back up given the reigns. MC is now the Hurricanes problem.

 

Most times a trip down memory lane brings warm, nostalgic feelings. Some times they ignite thoughts and feelings of what could have been.......

 

So glad we can move forward with a new coach, staff and schemes. There will be ups and downs, highs and lows, wins and losses for sure. Here's hoping we return to our OBD exciting roots.  GO DUCKS......

[Just Ducky]

 Be very interesting to see what kind of a season Tyler Van Dyke has at Miami. He seems very capable but I wonder if marinoO will send him backwards as he typically does.

[Haywarduck]

Anthony Brown is a very good example of what happens to a qb under the previous coach. Right now he is taking over for an 8 year NFL veteran, Brett Hundley on the Ravens roster. Brown was given the opportunity to play in the preseason opener for the Ravens and was impressive.

 

Brown played most of the second half in relief duty and went 10-of-15 for 117 passing yards and ran twice for 14 yards.

 

After his career at Oregon, few Oregon fans guessed he would make it this far on an NFL roster.

 

Many wondered if Justin had been held back because there was no viable alternative. We now see a second qb who was held back, but it would seem it was just because there wasn't any development at the position, nor any ability to use a qb.

 

It would be interesting to have a beer with these guys and get the straight scoop, but all we can do is ponder what could have been and watch what is done this season to Van Dyke at Miami.

 

Van Dyke's completion ratio last season was 62%, qb rating 160, avg. pass 9 yds. Will their coach apply his magic again to the qb position? He was also ACC Rookie of the year, and ACC offensive rookie of the year. 

 

I would say strike two for the coach, and with Van Dyke it could be strike three in qb production.

 

Another item is maybe we are lucky are young guys never really saw the field last season, as their confidence may have been destroyed. We wanted AB benched, but he was in the process of being destroyed, and we are lucky our other qb's didn't go through that on the field. AB was actually pretty good, and just needed better guidance. 

 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

"Only three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad."  Pretty much sums up Mario's offensive philosophy.

[Tandaian]

MC is living rent free in our heads.  He is old news, time to move on.  We have been kicking that horse for so long, there isn't anything left.  Hopefully, Dan Lanning will get us all focused on the bright future of the Ducks.

[Charles Fischer]

It is always good to have a factual and impressive article by DZC to give us perspective on what is happening now by looking for a moment in the rear-view-mirror.  Great article, and it will be a great source to link for Miami fans in the future.

 

You are killing-it DZC!

[DazeNconfused]

I wanted to do this article so that the statistical data could be laid out. I feel it's important to have the numbers to go with what our eyes told us. 

 

It also gives us AB's stats last year that many of us felt wasn't meeting the benchmark for QB play we want at Oregon.

 

The discussion lets us ponder some other things.

 

What if Taggart stayed with his Gulf Coast Offense? Would the Ducks have made the playoffs 2018? We don't lose to Tree at home in OT, we put up more than 20 points at Wazzu and don't lose by 14, maybe we don't implode at Arizona, we score more than 25 points at Utah don't lose by 7 points? 

 

You think at the least we win two of those games, Tree and Utah- could we have won a third game to move us to a one loss team?

 

Herbs numbers we expect would have improved in 2018, maybe enough to make it to NY as a Heisman finalist?

 

Would Herbs have gone pro after 2018 and not came back for his final year? Do the Arizona Cardinals take Herbs first or 5' 10" Kyler Murry? For sure the NY Giants take Herbs at 6th over Danile Jones, right?

 

Lastly, let's look back at Tyler Shough.. I went nuts on his picks he kept throwing into the shallow cover guy.

 

But Shough was playing good QB besides the picks! He completed 63.5% for 9.3 yads per pass and has a 160.4 pass rating. Shough before he got hurt at Texas Tech last year threw for 69.6% with 9.5 yards over pass and 164.2 pass rating!

 

Shough, last year in 4 games was close to Herbs best level under Taggart-- while the Ducks ran out AB.

 

That 2020 Covid year saw Penie Sewell opt out, with Jevon Holland, Tyler Graham and Brady Breeze. Having those guys would have made a difference in one score losses to Cal and OSU! Shough could have had us unbeaten going into the Bowl game with help.

 

But I have to wonder even more what would have been of Mario would have told Tyler to just keep letting it rip? Mario actually got into Shough's head, they dialed the offense back and he played worse!

 

It appears at that point Mario decided he didn't need a QB throwing picks and messing up his "Mario Ball Scheme"

 

What would Shough have done in Taggarts Gulf Coast Offense if he had stayed to coach the Ducks?

 

Looking back not only did Mario ruin Herbs and AB, he ran off Tyler Shough-- the QB who was poised to put-up big-time numbers at Oregon!

 

I'd love to hear feedback and comments on any of the things I posted.

Edited August 17, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[DazeNconfused]

On 8/17/2022 at 8:48 AM, Wrathis said:

I posted a thread on this a few months ago. I was a believer in Shough and hated that the fan base constantly threw shade his way. He had potential and I was of the opinion that 2020 being a Covid-ruined season was the PERFECT opportunity to throw him in there and let him get the experience he needed to QB for the next 2 years.

 

In hindsight, imagine having Shough the last 2 years leading the offense instead of yet another grad transfer in AB. Granted, Mari would have ruined him as well I suppose...so maybe it was better for Tyler to head to TT instead of grinding out check-downs and hand-offs here the last couple of years...

 

Well, Shough if he stayed would be QB1 in Dillys system and Bo Nix would have never come.

 

Shough would be looking for a big year before heading to the draft and Butter is the guy who I expect would transfer.

 

Then in 2023 next year we would have five-stars Thompson and Moore.

[AnotherOD]

It's also interesting that, despite some stats, it only has taken four games for Texas Tech fans confidence in Shough to fall nearly off a cliff.

 

Obvious just message board stuff, but the consensus among the TT fans there was TS wasn't great in his four games prior to being lost to the season, and quite possibly has lost his starting job in 2022 (some think a guy named Morton others think a guy named Smith). Some comments from "Who wins the QB battle?":

 

Cleanship:

"I think we get a surprise, and Morton starts or ends up starting at some point and finishing the season. I think you'll see Smith come in at certain times and certain packages. Shough will be back-up."

 

Good Fellow:

"Conventional wisdom says it will be Shough but I with the water cooler boys picking Morton. Smith had a better season last year than Shough...I was not impressed with Shough last season and neither was Oregon the previous season. I just don't see how that makes him #1...A pro-style QB standing upright in the pocket with a history of poor reads is the last thing you want..."

 

arciTTech:

"Shough has the tools of an NFL QB and I'll think he starts. But when the game starts, he just doesn't have the mental game needed...There's just something about All Star Practice QBs where the flaws don't show until it's game time."

 

JRaid:

"Shough is probably the safe pick. As much as it pains me to agree with Good Fellow wasn't all that impressed with Shough what I saw last season."

 

 

scarletwisdom:

"They will pick Shough most likely given that he is the senior. And then may change mid way through the season. He shouldn't have been in contention at all, but the fact that he is tells me that the others still have some catching up to do."

 

dhtech:

"I've been low-key afraid that everyone feels compelled to name Shough as the starter not based on what he's done or shown them, but based on what he's supposedly capable of. Meaning he's still sort of riding the wave of accolades he came out of high school with."

 

OU48A:

"From what I saw from Donovan Smith I thought he has a chance to be very effective with a good supporting scheme and some good QB coaching."

 

MrClicks:

"Agree with most. Money says Shough starts, but we need to see him consistently move the offense. Don't know if he's a gamer, not every talented player is. Hope he proves me wrong because he's got all the measurables."

 

MoRaiders:

"I’d be surprised if Shough doesn’t start. He has talent and experience. I do think there is a good chance Morton starts at some point in the season either due to injury or a need for change."

 

There are a few fans who still hold onto the "he was a highly rated high school kid and has NFL skills" and think he should at least get the first couple games before being pulled, and the rest have already moved on to other QBs they feel have already moved past TS in on the field play.

 

I'd fine with those who want to add Shough to Mario "QB regression" pile; but, once again perhaps another case where some stats may paint a rosey outcome but eyeballs just suggest something different. In this day and age in college football it sometimes isn't that hard to generate some good numbers (shoot I think at about the four game mark the Beavs QB Chance Nolan had a QB rating north of 190 - and that was with a couple decent opponents - yet he ended up having a fair year but not really close to that level).

 

 

Edited August 17, 2022 by AnotherOD

[Jon Sousa]

On 8/17/2022 at 7:06 AM, Haywarduck said:

Another item is maybe we are lucky are young guys never really saw the field last season, as their confidence may have been destroyed.

Interesting. Is this what happened to Tyler Shough in 2020? He started out great, but his confidence was nil by the end of the season.

[idontrollonshobbas]

Correlation is not causation but, man, DZNC lays out a good case that mirrors my recollection of the events.  But I had forgotten how much better Taggart's offense and JH's numbers were.  

 

"Only three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad." 

 

The Kamikaze Kid posted this quote in this thread.  I recall that Chip said this regarding his run dominate offense.  I think MC sold Mullens that his system would return to a run-dominate offense after the Helf/Taggart era, but would do it with SEC physicality.  

 

There were many Duck fans clamoring for that at the time.....advocating that was the difference in two Championship games we lost.   Ground and pound, drain the clock, keep our defense off the field more after ignoring TOP under Chip and then Helf.  The TCU Bowl Game really cranked up this line of rhetoric.

 

QB's aren't going to shine statistically in that style of offense, but they can make a few big plays in the air or with their legs and be on a championship team, Bama style, and get a shot at the draft.

 

Turns out we won a lot of games doing that......until we didn't and MC didn't adjust.   The second half in the bowl against Oklahoma showed how possible that would have been.  So, why not adjust and open up the playbook some.

 

I think Mario had the Miami job locked down after the Buckeye's and didn't want to risk a loss.....which is exactly what caused the 2 Utah hose downs.  Isn't it ironic, dontcha think?  The good advice that you just didn't take.....who would have thought 'It figures.'   Sorry, Alanis Morisette just showed up.

 

Thnaks for the great articles, DZNC, including this one!

Edited August 17, 2022 by idontrollonshobbas
typos

[DazeNconfused]

On 8/17/2022 at 10:03 AM, AnotherOD said:

It's also interesting that, despite some stats, it only has taken four games for Texas Tech fans confidence in Shough to fall nearly off a cliff.

 

Obvious just message board stuff, but the consensus among the TT fans there was TS wasn't great in his four games prior to being lost to the season, and quite possibly has lost his starting job in 2022 (some think a guy named Morton others think a guy named Smith). Some comments from "Who wins the QB battle?":

 

Cleanship:

"I think we get a surprise, and Morton starts or ends up starting at some point and finishing the season. I think you'll see Smith come in at certain times and certain packages. Shough will be back-up."

 

Good Fellow:

"Conventional wisdom says it will be Shough but I with the water cooler boys picking Morton. Smith had a better season last year than Shough...I was not impressed with Shough last season and neither was Oregon the previous season. I just don't see how that makes him #1...A pro-style QB standing upright in the pocket with a history of poor reads is the last thing you want..."

 

arciTTech:

"Shough has the tools of an NFL QB and I'll think he starts. But when the game starts, he just doesn't have the mental game needed...There's just something about All Star Practice QBs where the flaws don't show until it's game time."

 

JRaid:

"Shough is probably the safe pick. As much as it pains me to agree with Good Fellow wasn't all that impressed with Shough what I saw last season."

 

 

scarletwisdom:

"They will pick Shough most likely given that he is the senior. And then may change mid way through the season. He shouldn't have been in contention at all, but the fact that he is tells me that the others still have some catching up to do."

 

dhtech:

"I've been low-key afraid that everyone feels compelled to name Shough as the starter not based on what he's done or shown them, but based on what he's supposedly capable of. Meaning he's still sort of riding the wave of accolades he came out of high school with."

 

OU48A:

"From what I saw from Donovan Smith I thought he has a chance to be very effective with a good supporting scheme and some good QB coaching."

 

MrClicks:

"Agree with most. Money says Shough starts, but we need to see him consistently move the offense. Don't know if he's a gamer, not every talented player is. Hope he proves me wrong because he's got all the measurables."

 

MoRaiders:

"I’d be surprised if Shough doesn’t start. He has talent and experience. I do think there is a good chance Morton starts at some point in the season either due to injury or a need for change."

 

There are a few fans who still hold onto the "he was a highly rated high school kid and has NFL skills" and think he should at least get the first couple games before being pulled, and the rest have already moved on to other QBs they feel have already moved past TS in on the field play.

 

I'd fine with those who want to add Shough to Mario "QB regression" pile; but, once again perhaps another case where some stats may paint a rosey outcome but eyeballs just suggest something different. In this day and age in college football it sometimes isn't that hard to generate some good numbers (shoot I think at about the four game mark the Beavs QB Chance Nolan had a QB rating north of 190 - and that was with a couple decent opponents - yet he ended up having a fair year but not really close to that level).

 

 

Great post. The TT fans should try a year of AB in Mario ball before they complain about Shough. I'd rather had Shough last year then AB.

 

In 2020 Shough even with the bad picks, Mario getting in his head and dealing the offense back led the Pac-12 in yards per pass and pass rating.

Check out the link below- Shough was blowing the rest away in pass rating and was a yard better per pass than jayden Daniles at ASU

2020 Pac-12 Conference Player Passing Stats | ESPN

WWW.ESPN.COM

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Visit ESPN to view 2020 Pac-12 Conference College Football player stats

 

[DazeNconfused]

On 8/17/2022 at 12:00 PM, Jon Sousa said:

Interesting. Is this what happened to Tyler Shough in 2020? He started out great, but his confidence was nil by the end of the season.

I think the staff really laid into him in film sessions for throwing that same stupid pick to the shallow guy time and again. I saw him do the same in a TT game last year.

 

But I'll take Shoughs 9.3 yards per pass and 160 pass rating over AB all day long.