Is Beating UCLA Primarily Dependent On The Performance Of The Defense?

[Notalot]

Can the Ducks win with defense? We've seen the offense lead the way over the past five games, and while the defense has played well in spurts, it really hasn't had a complete performance. Incremental improvement is the key there if the Ducks hope to win the Pac-12, starting this week against UCLA. -- Kyle Bonagura - ESPN

 

So what do you think?

[30Duck]

Right now I'm more concerned with stopping Charbonnet on the ground and Bobo and others in the air, then I am of not scoring on them. I don't think you can be overly confident in a shootout. The weakest area of the game could be the Ducks' secondary, so pressure is mandatory, and that hasn't beem a Oregon strength either. So, yes, Oregon's D will have to have its best game by far to win this one. 

[Mic]

Since outcomes of games are still decided by who has the most points, of course.  Unless we either out-score them or we stop them from out-scoring us.  It's the old chicken & egg thing (which came first, the chicken or the egg?).  

 

What wins games, offense or defense?  Without both most teams lose.

[Charles Fischer]

No.  The Bruins are too loaded on offense, IMHO, for us to say we will, "win with our defense."  We cannot stop them; we work to slow them down and score boatloads of points as well.

 

Long-story-short?  We will "Chip Kelly" a Chip Kelly team on both offense and defense.  Think of our overall team strategy in 2010-2015...as I believe we will be doing them both this weekend.

 

And I LOVE it!

 

[Log Haulin]

A lot of people thought AZ passing game was going to shred Oregon's secondary. It Didn't happen. 

 

The weak link in Ducks Defense is LB room. Hopefully they turn the corner and Ducks become feared defensively. They have the talent. 

 

I don't think the defense will deliver the win v. UCLA. The offense is lethal. It's Oregons offense that keeps opposing coaches awake at night.

 

I do think the D levels up and holds UCLA under 35. 

[Dave23]

While the Ducks O will need to score in boat loads the D is going to need to get a few stops or a turnover to make the difference for the win.

[Mic]

On 10/16/2022 at 8:22 PM, Log Haulin said:

A lot of people thought AZ passing game was going to shred Oregon's secondary. It Didn't happen. 

Same with those tall WR's of Stanford's.  They had a lot of us worried yet, Oregon held up well.  

 

One thing I think Oregon is really gonna need this game (more than any other since WSU) is a serious, consistent pass rush.  It looks to me like Lanning & Lupoi either disagree or they're dropping back to shore up the backfield instead.  I'm not smart enough to understand schemes in all their nuances but it doesn't look to me like either coach is committed to pressuring the QB consistently, only sporadically.  This is based on # of sacks.

 

It's been working so far.  But I'd really like to see DTR picking himself up of the turf a lot! 

[debbieduck]

On 10/17/2022 at 8:32 AM, Mic said:

Same with those tall WR's of Stanford's.  They had a lot of us worried yet, Oregon held up well.  

 

One thing I think Oregon is really gonna need this game (more than any other since WSU) is a serious, consistent pass rush.  It looks to me like Lanning & Lupoi either disagree or they're dropping back to shore up the backfield instead.  I'm not smart enough to understand schemes in all their nuances but it doesn't look to me like either coach is committed to pressuring the QB consistently, only sporadically.  This is based on # of sacks.

 

It's been working so far.  But I'd really like to see DTR picking himself up of the turf a lot! 

We haven’t played, in my opinion, the 4 best dual threat QB’s.  So it’s hard to get an honest read on our team 

 

Are we better since Georgia?  No legitimate way to determine that yet. 

 

UCLA is the first team we have played that has a V-8 for an engine.   They knocked Utah backwards, it wasn’t even a game.  
 

 

I usually bet games, but not this coming Oregon game.  I simply have no Idea who we are yet?  
 

You could give me Oregon and 14 points. I still wouldn’t bet. 
 

You could give me UCLA and 14 points.  Still not betting!

 

If UCLA scores first it may be a long day?   To dramatic?  

[Mic]

On 10/17/2022 at 8:43 AM, debbieduck said:

To dramatic?  

Only a little.  This is clearly the best team O's gonna face since Georgia with an offensive scheme designed to score a lot of points fast.  People thought USC had that and in a way, they do, except the team UCLA beat by 10 just beat USC.  Match-ups.  And home field advantage.

 

I'm only a gentleman's bet type of guy, well, maybe a fiver here and there amongst friends when we can shake hands.  But I wouldn't care to bet on this one either because half of me says don't bet against Chip when he gets his engine up and running and my other half says don't bet against Oregon at home when they get their's up and running as well.

 

The difference might be who has the best defense and/or who plays the cleaner game penalty and turnover wise.

[Mic]

On 10/17/2022 at 7:56 AM, Dave23 said:

While the Ducks O will need to score in boat loads the D is going to need to get a few stops or a turnover to make the difference for the win.

Exactly what I'm thinking except O might need more than one turnover in this one. As I mentioned to Charles earlier this could be the mother of all shootouts unless the defenses of both are better than they've looked so far.

[30Duck]

I haven't tracked UCLA , but the Ducks have come from behind this season, and once they've taken the lead, they've built on it. Playing at Autzen it would definitely help if the Ducks got the lead early. Hopefully, the Ducks will start on defense, get a stop and  then put a touchdown on the board. A pick 6 would also be acceotable.

[debbieduck]

On 10/17/2022 at 9:37 AM, Mic said:

Exactly what I'm thinking except O might need more than one turnover in this one. As I mentioned to Charles earlier this could be the mother of all shootouts unless the defenses of both are better than they've looked so far.

I think UCLA’s D has looked good.  If we spank Utah, like UCLA did,  and the game is basically  over at half, I will be happy.  
 

Utah got 14 garbage points in the 4th after UCLA hung up their shoes.   

[Mic]

1st, I didn't watch the UCLA - Utah game so I'll take your word on that.  2nd, Oregon has let-up off the gas this season too, but with arguably lesser competition.  3rd, Even after watching Utah twice I'm still not convinced they have the offense to keep up with Oregon's.  They certainly didn't to keep up with UCLA's.

 

What's making this hard (and interesting) is neither UCLA or Oregon have played anyone in common so direct comparisons can't be made.  What we do know is that UCLA was able to slow down Utah and USC wasn't, while at the same time Utah was able to score points on USC where Oregon couldn't on Georgia.

 

Which all makes for more intrigue because how much better is Georgia than USC?  A Lot, we hope.  But even Missouri put a real scare in Georgia!

[woundedknees]

I'm ready to see more qb stops, rather than the scampering signal callers achieving implausible escapes for completions or scrambling for first downs.

It's time to start being a more complete defense.

[David Marsh]

Couple keys on defense... 

 

We saw against Arizona that Oregon did a fantastic job of keeping the quarterback in the pocket and collapsing the pocket from there. If Oregon can do the same against UCLA that will take away a huge threat that DTR just runs for big yards on a play with no passing options. 

 

This will be more difficult against UCLA than Arizona but that's a major key to this game. 

 

Oregon has also had a pretty solid run defense... Oregon needs to do what they have been doing all year. Take away the run and challenge them to beat us in the air. Now our secondary needs work but has improved. 

 

But the other side of it as well... Even teams that are comfortable passing the ball start to panic when they HAVE to pass the ball and make plays. UCLA is a run first offense... Take away the run and they will get uncomfortable. 

 

Oregon doesn't need to shut UCLA down... Just get enough stops for the offense to build a lead. I don't know how well UCLAs defense will hold up against our offensive line. 

[DazeNconfused]

The issue isn't the Ducks defense, question is on the UCLA defense. UCLA had played some weak teams in Bowling Green, Alabama St, South Alabama and Colorado. 

 

The last two games at home they gave up an average of 445 yards to UW and Utah - Oregon has the # 1 offense in the Pac and this is a road game for UCLA.

 

The Ducks have the #13 rush defense and UCLA is #16 but UCLA has played soft teams. Utah is the #34 rush offense and UCLA gave up 192 yards at home to Utah. The Ducks have the #10 rush offense with great OL - and it's a road game for UCLA.

 

Georgia has the #5 rush defense giving up 3.3 yards a carry and Oregon put up 4.5 yards per carry on the road. The UCLA run defense isn't the caliber of the UGA run defense and this is a road game.

 

The Oregon OL and run game is the best UCLA will be facing all year. UCLA has to stop the Ducks run game and if they stuff the box then the Ducks have shown they can pass over the top of you like Bo did against WAZZU.

 

UCLA only has one 4-star DL, Edge and LB who start on the front seven and have to face that Ducks OL. UCLA has lots of older players on its roster, but they have 24 blue-chips to Oregon's 52. (Fun fact, UCLA has four QBs who are 4-stars of those 24 blue-chips) The Ducks out talent UCLA by a wide margin and the Ducks play almost the entire two deep on defense all game long. So, the Ducks are the fresher and more talented team in the second half.

 

The flip side applies to the UCLA offense and defense matchup. UCLA has one 4-star OL guy, they have a bunch of older 3-star OL dudes on the OL two deep. The Ducks have much higher ranked talent on defense than UCLA has on offense. Sure, Chip has a Vet QB with lots of Vet players and is known for making that work.

 

But remember UCLA went out to a 14-0 lead after the first two possessions of the game last year in LA. Then the Ducks took the gave over the next two quarters and dominated outscoring them 27-3. The Ducks did have KT to take over the game last year, but they are home this year. 

 

The Ducks with the big talent advantage and better coaching under Lanning at home win this game hands down.  

Edited October 17, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[Charles Fischer]

I couple of thoughts; 1) Oregon was down 14-0 in the Rose Bowl and came back.  No lead for either team will safe, IMHO.

 

2) this could be a close game like year where it was decided by defensive play (the pass interception by DJ James) to finish it, just as the Mase Funa pick at Washington State did this year.

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/17/2022 at 11:12 AM, DazeNconfused said:

Georgia has the No. 5 rush defense giving up 3.3 yards a carry and Oregon put up 4.5 yards per carry on the road. The UCLA run defense isn't the caliber of the UGA run defense and this is a road game.

Fantastic analysis above, and another reason why I need my "Dazed" fix on a regular basis.

 

 

On 10/17/2022 at 11:12 AM, DazeNconfused said:

UCLA has lots of older players on its roster, but they have 24 blue-chips to Oregon's 52.

I no longer place relevance on that above stat, as last year Oregon had 54 of the blue-chippers to Fresno State's one, but we still almost lost to them last year.  Ditto with Washington State this year, and ditto with Bellotti/Chip teams of the past.

 

[Notalot]

On 10/17/2022 at 4:23 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Fantastic analysis above, and another reason why I need my "Dazed" fix on a regular basis.

 

 

I no longer place relevance on that above stat, as last year Oregon had 54 of the blue-chippers to Fresno State's one, but we still almost lost to them last year.  Ditto with Washington State this year, and ditto with Bellotti/Chip teams of the past.

 

Bellotti era was when men were men and opponents were..

 

scared and then defeated. When less=more.

Edited October 17, 2022 by Notalot

[DanLduck]

So many times over the years, when we expected a high scoring shootout, it seems just the opposite has happened, low scoring defensive game.

 

This one has all the earmarks of a high scoring affair, so I predict the opposite,  at least in the 1st half.

 

2 predictions:

1) the officiating will be atrocious and have an influence on the outcome.

 

2) whichever team weathers the poor officiating will win

 

At least 2 questionable targeting calls and a couple p/I calls that leave us going "what"?

[30Duck]

On 10/17/2022 at 10:36 AM, Mic said:

while at the same time Utah was able to score points on USC where Oregon couldn't on Georgia.

Not poking at you here, but over the tears I've found that using comparison as a big part of evaluating is faulty. and finding that one team was able to score on USC's D, but another team couldn't score on Georgia's, doesn't clarify anything.

 

 

[debbieduck]

On 10/17/2022 at 10:36 AM, Mic said:

1st, I didn't watch the UCLA - Utah game so I'll take your word on that.  2nd, Oregon has let-up off the gas this season too, but with arguably lesser competition.  3rd, Even after watching Utah twice I'm still not convinced they have the offense to keep up with Oregon's.  They certainly didn't to keep up with UCLA's.

 

What's making this hard (and interesting) is neither UCLA or Oregon have played anyone in common so direct comparisons can't be made.  What we do know is that UCLA was able to slow down Utah and USC wasn't, while at the same time Utah was able to score points on USC where Oregon couldn't on Georgia.

 

Which all makes for more intrigue because how much better is Georgia than USC?  A Lot, we hope.  But even Missouri put a real scare in Georgia!

True enough.  I think USC gets destroyed by Georgia.  
 

In fact if there were a 8 team playoff today I would have Georgia, Tennessee , Alabama, and Ole Miss in them. 
 

I think it’s gotten that lop sided.  

On 10/17/2022 at 2:21 PM, 30Duck said:

Not poking at you here, but over the tears I've found that using comparison as a big part of evaluating is faulty. and finding that one team was able to score on USC's D, but another team couldn't score on Georgia's, doesn't clarify anything.

 

 

Last year Michigan destroyed Ohio State.  Then remember what happens in playoffs.  
 

Michigan hit curb stomped.  
 

You can only compare SEC teams to other SEC teams.  They are that much better 

[debbieduck]

On 10/17/2022 at 11:12 AM, DazeNconfused said:

The issue isn't the Ducks defense, question is on the UCLA defense. UCLA had played some weak teams in Bowling Green, Alabama St, South Alabama and Colorado. 

 

The last two games at home they gave up an average of 445 yards to UW and Utah - Oregon has the # 1 offense in the Pac and this is a road game for UCLA.

 

The Ducks have the #13 rush defense and UCLA is #16 but UCLA has played soft teams. Utah is the #34 rush offense and UCLA gave up 192 yards at home to Utah. The Ducks have the #10 rush offense with great OL - and it's a road game for UCLA.

 

Georgia has the #5 rush defense giving up 3.3 yards a carry and Oregon put up 4.5 yards per carry on the road. The UCLA run defense isn't the caliber of the UGA run defense and this is a road game.

 

The Oregon OL and run game is the best UCLA will be facing all year. UCLA has to stop the Ducks run game and if they stuff the box then the Ducks have shown they can pass over the top of you like Bo did against WAZZU.

 

UCLA only has one 4-star DL, Edge and LB who start on the front seven and have to face that Ducks OL. UCLA has lots of older players on its roster, but they have 24 blue-chips to Oregon's 52. (Fun fact, UCLA has four QBs who are 4-stars of those 24 blue-chips) The Ducks out talent UCLA by a wide margin and the Ducks play almost the entire two deep on defense all game long. So, the Ducks are the fresher and more talented team in the second half.

 

The flip side applies to the UCLA offense and defense matchup. UCLA has one 4-star OL guy, they have a bunch of older 3-star OL dudes on the OL two deep. The Ducks have much higher ranked talent on defense than UCLA has on offense. Sure, Chip has a Vet QB with lots of Vet players and is known for making that work.

 

But remember UCLA went out to a 14-0 lead after the first two possessions of the game last year in LA. Then the Ducks took the gave over the next two quarters and dominated outscoring them 27-3. The Ducks did have KT to take over the game last year, but they are home this year. 

 

The Ducks with the big talent advantage and better coaching under Lanning at home win this game hands down.  

I’m not sure I agree on the talent difference. 
 

I will take 3 stars who perform over 4 and 5 stars who aren’t.  Are defensive backs and linebackers should be tearing it up in the pac 12.   Instead we were darn lucky to best WSU 

[Haywarduck]

On 10/17/2022 at 9:37 AM, Mic said:

Exactly what I'm thinking except O might need more than one turnover in this one. As I mentioned to Charles earlier this could be the mother of all shootouts unless the defenses of both are better than they've looked so far.

Agree the answer to the posed question is if there are multiple turnovers, and a score by the defense, then the defense can help determine the outcome more directly.

 

It is going to take a complete game, offense, defense, special teams firing on all cylinders. Oh and you too Oregon Faithful, loud and proud, and maybe some weather, but then again it never rains at Autzen.

[Mic]

On 10/17/2022 at 2:21 PM, 30Duck said:

Not poking at you here, but over the tears I've found that using comparison as a big part of evaluating is faulty. and finding that one team was able to score on USC's D, but another team couldn't score on Georgia's, doesn't clarify anything.

 

No, you're right.  

 

I'm a firm believer in trying to understand how certain teams match-up better against others because it often explains why when Team A, who beats team C by 20 (whom beat Team B previously) cannot always be expected to beat Team B just because of the earlier results.  Comparing like opponents is a good indicator but doesn't often take everything into account.  Throw in home field advantages, injuries and penalties on top of individual matchups and it can become a crap shoot in a hurry.

 

For example: say O hands UCLA it's lunch Saturday (hopefully). Does that follow that O will then smoke Utah who lost previously to UCLA?  I wish it were that simple but it never is.  One would think if we can beat UCLA we will certainly beat Utah and we all know that's not guaranteed. Not by a long shot.

[Mic]

On 10/17/2022 at 10:49 AM, woundedknees said:

I'm ready to see more qb stops, rather than the scampering signal callers achieving implausible escapes for completions or scrambling for first downs.

There's no denying that DTR has been playing better under Chips system than ever before.  And we're all with ya on this one, Oregon will need to make him play like the old DTR of previous seasons.  Maybe a few hard (but legal) sacks will 'assist' O in doing that. And getting a few turnovers as the result.

[Mic]

On 10/17/2022 at 11:12 AM, DazeNconfused said:

 

The Ducks with the big talent advantage and better coaching under Lanning at home win this game hands down.  

First, I just don't see the 'big talent advantage' of Oregon over UCLA.  Could be, I just don't see it... yet (see Charles' post above about that).

 

Second, as far as coaching goes, Chip's a veteran of both the CFB and the NFL, older, much more experienced and just as innovative (if not more so) than Dillingham so I don't see an advantage there either.

 

Lastly, I am yet to get on the Tosh Lupoi bandwagon.  I have no way to compare him to Chip's D.C. but so far I'm still wondering why Lanning picked Lupoi.  I'm trusting him to have made the right (or was it the best available?) choice when he did but for me the jury's still out on that one too.

 

So ... a win hands down?  As I said earlier I'll be happy just to see the Ducks cover the spread of 4-pts.  Any more than that and you can tell me you told us so!  

 

 

Edited October 17, 2022 by Mic

[Haywarduck]

On 10/17/2022 at 4:18 PM, Mic said:

First, I just don't see the 'big talent advantage' of Oregon over UCLA.  Could be, I just don't see it... yet (see Charles' post above about that).

 

Second, as far as coaching goes, Chip's a veteran of both the CFB and the NFL, older, much more experienced and just as innovative (if not more so) than Dillingham so I don't see an advantage there either.

 

Lastly, I am yet to get on the Tosh Lupoi bandwagon.  I have no way to compare him to Chip's D.C. but so far I'm still wondering why Lanning picked Lupoi.  I'm trusting him to have made the right (or was it the best available?) choice when he did but for me the jury's still out on that one too.

 

So ... a win hands down?  As I said earlier I'll be happy just to see the Ducks cover the spread of 4-pts.  Any more than that and you can tell me you told us so!  

 

 

Agree with much of what you question, but these bruins won't know what hit them when the step into Autzen. It won't be 70 degrees, quiet, with just mom and dad in the stands cheering for them when they screw up or play well.