Tyler Shough the THIRD BEST QB in Pac-12?

[Charles Fischer]

That is what this site is showing with their collection of stats.  Agree or not--it is interesting, and food for thought.

2020 Pac 12 Quarterback Leaderboard by CFB Saturdays

[SpokaneDuck]

I wonder which Tyler Shough they are rating?  The Tyler Shough in the first half of the season, or the Tyler Shough of the second half of the season.

[David Marsh]

12 minutes ago, SpokaneDuck said:

I wonder which Tyler Shough they are rating?  The Tyler Shough in the first half of the season, or the Tyler Shough of the second half of the season.

Both... he was pretty darn good up through the first half of the Cal game... then something happened and he fell to pieces in the second half of Cal and beyond.

the Oregon State loss was not the fault of the offense but the defense. Yes, Shough threw a couple bad interceptions but the defense's inability to stop the run was what killed Oregon that game. Against Cal the defense did its job keeping Cal to 21 points but it was Shough and the offense's inability to score that resulted in defeat. On the whole Shough wasn't so bad... he was just REALLY bad down the stretch.

[30Duck]

Sports live on statistics, but it's a perilous way to go. When you say, "50% of the time it works" you are also saying that, "50% of the time it doesn't work". Shough's season is the perfect illustration, the first 3 games, he played very well, by the 4th game his performance was slipping and it just got worse. 

In this case, the eye test is not flawed, we aren't imagining a hypothetical outcome. We're simply remembering what Shough looked like in the last four games of the season and weighing the season stats accordingly. 

[Vandownbytheriverduck]

Defenses dropped  3or 4 potential interceptions in Tyler’s first few games. Had the defensive players made those plays his season would look different. 
he could be the third best QB, AT OREGON

Heck, look at Joe Montana. 1981 CHAMPIONSHIP he had three interceptions and Everson Walls should have had the fourth, one play before “the catch” which changed everything. That play was right in front of me. Good times. Joe’s reputation might look different if E walls does not drop that pass. 

[geoquack]

No.

[ChicoDuck]

I guess I'm thick. I don't know what "QBS" means.

I think I'll stay with the first two categories like normal people. YPA and Passing percentage. If you're YPA is in the 9, 10 or 11 range that's got the back end guys back pedaling at the snap. And a PC rate of 63-65% is excellent.

I'm an unabashed Shough fan. He was the best in the Pac-12 as a first year starter, and no amount of Gin & Juice from this author can alter the stats to "prove" otherwise.

[romper17]

Not saying he was perfect or made some bad passes.  A lot of those drives in The Cal game were stalled do to holding calls.  I can remember 2 in particular.  Both by Ryan Walk if I remember correctly.  The other thing I would say about the Cal game is it looked like Tyler was leading a game winning drive when Johnny Johnson’s fumble late.  

[GODUCKS15]

If Shough is 3rd then whats that say for the other QB's below him?

[Tandaian]

The glossary said QBS was a calculation of their own making.  So, take it with a grain of salf.

[Tandaian]

Shough stats for his 1st 4 games: 77/117      65.81%, 1158 yards, 10 TD,  4 INT,  15  Yards per reception      39 rushes, 203 yards, 2 TD

Shough stats for his last 3 games:  29/50        58%,          401 yards,  3 TD,  2 INT, 13.8 Yards per reception       27 rushes, 58 yards, 0 TD

Shough definitely trended down his last 3 games

[Vandownbytheriverduck]

1 hour ago, Tandaian said:

10 TD,  4 INT,  15  Yards per reception      39 rushes, 203 yards, 2 TD

Add three or four picks in there and it becomes pedestrian. The throws in question were bad decisions into bad spots. The defense simply didn’t make the plays. 

I like him and want him to succeed but AB looks more athletic, has more experience and Ashford and Thompson look like a better fit for the Moorhead O as does AB.

My PREDICTION: Tyler faces intense competition and loses out to one of the three mentioned and enters next years transfer portal. 

Mark my words and then skewer and roast me if I am wrong.

[UtahDuck]

14 hours ago, Vandownbytheriverduck said:

Defenses dropped  3 or 4 potential interceptions in Tyler’s first few games. Had the defensive players made those plays his season would look different. 

Yes, but every QB has passes that shouldn't be intercepted. Shough is not the exception to a lucky missed int.

First look at the stats, the average NFL QB, throws an INT on ~2.4 percent of their attempted passes. As a first year started Shough threw 6 INT's on 167 pass attempts or ~3.6%. (I couldn't find NCAA stats but to also prove my point the top 10 in the pac, (in attempts threw 1552 pass and 46 INT's) had a 2.9% INT to attempt ratio.

Now let's talk about how frequently defenses get INT's. The college numbers for years have suggested that you get an INT on 22% of your pass break ups(PBU's). this makes pretty good logistical sense, PBU's incorporates both INT and passes defended so the more you are in position(either by skill or scheme) to defend a pass the more likely you are to get an INT as well.

After pulling the numbers either 1) he(shough) is more unlucky than the average college QB or 2) he is more likely to throw an INT on a defendable pass. during the season he had 19 Passes defended, which means he had 31% INT to PBU Ratio. 

My point isn't to say that I think Shough is great, although I think he can improve with an actual off-season with Moorhead. It's that he deserves the same credence that we give to other teams. 

The two QB's in the pac that consistently receive a lot of praise are Daniels and Slovis. Daniels stats are a little hard to decipher because he only played in 4 games and only had 84 passes. His one INT lead is about ~1.2% INT/Attempt. He had 9 PBU's or ~11% INT's/PBU's. In all likelihood he probably should have thrown one more INT.

And Slovis had a ~2.6 INT/Pass Attempt so just about statistical average. and his 6 INT's puts him at ~20% INT's/PBU also really close to statistical average.   

 

[Vandownbytheriverduck]

Great post and great stats. I’m certainly not the expert in the room because Mario hasn’t offered me a job.

I just see Tyler's decision making as less than ideal. 

However, a full spring and camp might make all the difference and prove me wrong. Ask all of my exes. I’m apparently wrong a lot more than I think. 

[BigDucksFan]

13 hours ago, geoquack said:

No.

Love your response, direct and to the point. 

[AnotherOD]

Simple stats will always exist in sports (with limitations long recognized). Technology plus the growth in popularity of the sport has produced a whole wealth of "advanced metrics" which have become very popular (at least among those who wish to dive in).

PFF, while still not perfect, has gone a long way to tie accurate numbers to the "eyeball test". Simple described as evaluating between -2 and 2 in 0.5 increments a single player's role in the success or failure of a play (given their role in the play). Sitting in the pocket and dropping a pass into a tight window to a WR streaking 30 yards downfield actually produces a better number than a 5 yard flip to a TE who rumbles those same 30 yards. Tradition stats capture each 30 yards play as identical, but "eyeballs" tell us one is "elite" while the other is basically "completing a lay-up". All QBs will have "should have been picked" passes dropped by the defense. Traditional stats will reflect having 1 or 6 of those per game as basically the same, PFF captures the difference.

Grading QB success or failure per play, rather than just totaling up raw results, allows for accurately compiling a measure/grade of things such as accuracy to all levels of the field, completions under pressure, ability to create outside the pocket, decision making, sacks taken, turnover worthy plays, ability to make difficult throws, and so on, against one's contemporaries.

PFF graded TS as 11th out of the 12 starting Pac-12 QBs in their 2020 Pac-12 wrap up. Essentially matching more of what [many] of us have argued seeing on the field. I'd argue as well creating a number accurately reflecting the amount of offense that was "left on the table" due to the plays being available - only not often enough made - due to low rated QB execution. Doesn't mean it can't get better, only what did happen in 2020.

Edited February 11, 2021 by AnotherOD

[Charles Fischer]

1 hour ago, Vandownbytheriverduck said:

Mark my words and then skewer and roast me if I am wrong

We don't do that here, because we all are wrong at one time or another.  So you can express a controversial view, and people are not allowed to taunt or be snarky if you are wrong.  Which is a good thing, since I am wrong more often than I wish!

It is good to get your opinion--and everyone's as it makes it all that much more interesting.

[30Duck]

21 minutes ago, Charles Fischer said:

It is good to get your opinion--and everyone's as it makes it all that much more interesting.

[nogerO]

Behind AB and TT?

[UtahDuck]

2 hours ago, AnotherOD said:

Simple stats will always exist in sports (with limitations long recognized). Technology plus the growth in popularity of the sport has produced a whole wealth of "advanced metrics" which have become very popular (at least among those who wish to dive in).

PFF, while still not perfect, has gone a long way to tie accurate numbers to the "eyeball test". Simple described as evaluating between -2 and 2 in 0.5 increments a single player's role in the success or failure of a play (given their role in the play).

I don't like PFF for anything other than them giving hard to find 'Simple' stats. Example of a 'simple' stat that I like to read but is impossible to find unless you personally chart the games is Yards after contact. "Advanced metrics" often fail or are incomplete because they rely on human evaluation and then you add in that PFF doesn't produce how they manufactured their results. In your example yes the qb throwing a short pass to TE is much easier than throwing the 30 yard bomb into a tight window yet depending on the play QB1 may have made the right decision while QB2 got lucky.

Simple stats are limited, I make no argument against that, and sometimes as coaches and fans you just have to say yup the eyeball test says Brown is better. But I think there's a lot of strength when comparing these stats to averages, averages across the conference, averages across the years, or multi-year cross divisional averages. Sometimes you get lucky and sometimes not that is my only point. 

The original point was that Shough had multiple passes that should have been intercepted. They Eye test agrees but the averages and facts point out that he actually had on average more INT's per PD than statistically normal. That's It, make with the information as you see fit. 

[AnotherOD]

I don't think the (relatively straightforward) grading system is necessarily that hard to do, or necessarily introduces a ton of bias over the course of 100s of snaps (unless of course somehow it is intentional).  I understand people may disagree.

Their website does provide detail on exactly how they are doing it, for each position:

PFF Player Grades

 

Quarterback Play

 

The most effective quarterback evaluation out there

[Freewater Slim]

Simple actually. The young man got beat down. Can he recover? That is totally up to  him.   

[Haywarduck]

Agree the data is incomplete and our evaluation of Tyler isn't anything close accurate. He is a young man whose future is a road yet to be traveled.

I hope he reaches all his goals. The problem is most goals worth reaching are paved with failure. Most, I bet even he, agree he, at times had disappointing outcomes. The question is will this define his time at Oregon. I doubt it and wish him the best.

I would argue that any rating of a players season in 2020 isn't consequential to their career. Time will tell who will lead Oregon and the league going forward.

[SCO1586]

22 hours ago, Vandownbytheriverduck said:

Add three or four picks in there and it becomes pedestrian. The throws in question were bad decisions into bad spots. The defense simply didn’t make the plays. 

I like him and want him to succeed but AB looks more athletic, has more experience and Ashford and Thompson look like a better fit for the Moorhead O as does AB.

My PREDICTION: Tyler faces intense competition and loses out to one of the three mentioned and enters next years transfer portal. 

Mark my words and then skewer and roast me if I am wrong.

I honestly complete agree with this. I told a family member this last year that I love Tyler I think he is a great kid, but I do not think he can overcome the mental aspects of the game. Was this last year a completely fair assessment? No, absolutely not. I do however agree that the QB battle will be intense and I do not think Tyler wins it. I predict he will transfer back to Arizona and be closer to home.