Better Long-Term as Head Coach at Oregon: Dan Lanning OR Kenny Dillingham?

[cartm25]

HEAR ME OUT!!

 

I realize it's heresy, at this point, to even question Dan Lanning and the job he's done (FANTASTIC), but the Topic title is not as much click-bait as you might assume.

 

Let me pose the question differently: If you were an AD looking for a new head coach, would you prefer that the head coach be an Offensive Genius or a Defensive Genius?

 

Listening to Colin Cowherd, he makes a great point about the direction of football . . . Offense is king!

 

All the rules and regulations favor the offensive side of the ball. Offense is sexy; it's what attracts the best QBs and best skill position players. We hear it all the time as reported by the last few Ducks head coaches: "We go into recruits' houses and they constantly tell us that Oregon is their dream school."

 

Those recruits remember OFFENSES led by Chip Kelly and executed by the likes of Masoli, LaMichael James, Kenon Barner, MARIOTA, DeAnthony Thomas, Royce Freeman, Thomas Tyner, Mael, Darron Thomas, etc.

 

For whatever reason, the Cosmos chose Oregon to have the offense of a century for 4-6 years starting when they landed Chip Kelly, and the lasting image of the Ducks' blur offense is still paying dividends on the recruiting trail today.

 

Even now, thinking about those Chip Kelly years brings me nostalgia I cannot repress. Nothing was more fun than running to take a 30-second bathroom break, only to realize that the Ducks had scored ANOTHER touchdown in that time.

 

What if Kenny Dillingham is one of those offensive geniuses that come along 1 in every 4-5 years? Painful to see him go, right?

 

Questions and Points to Ponder:  

- In my opinion, what I've seen so far from Kenny Dillingham is the best offense I've ever seen at Oregon. My "soon-to-be-released" offensive stats updates shows KD's offense as more efficient than 2017 (with only Taggert/Herbert games), 2014, and 2010.

 

- Prepare yourself emotionally, because Kenny Dillingham will only be here one more year, max.

 

- As a defensive HC, Dan Lanning has to get the OC right every 1-3 years. It's hard to strike gold every time you pick a new OC.

 

- What happens to key offensive skill positions players (QB being the most important position, by far) when a stud OC leaves? Better chance of retaining the 5-star QBs when the offensive genius is the head coach.

 

- If Kenny Dillingham is the key relationship with 5* Dante Moore and KD bolts for, let's say, ASU, with the promise of playing in KD's incredible offense, does Dante Moore follow KD, or roll the dice with the next OC?

 

- As we've seen the past few years, constantly changing OCs and offensive philosophies, IMO, have stunted the growth and development of blue chip QB recruits languishing on Oregon's bench. There's a setback in a QB's development every time they have to reset and learn a new scheme and terminology.

 

- Look no further than Riley and DeBoer as an example of the advantage of having an offensive genius as HC. Those teams have ~40 ppg built-in every year until those coaches decide to leave, regardless of how many OC's cycle through.

 

- In the AP Top 25, only Alabama and Georgia are led by "Defensive Geniuses". They benefit from having near-NFL players on their entire roster, including the bench. If Nick Saban and his current staff were suddenly USC's staff, would USC be averaging ~40 ppg competing for a playoff spot? I think not.

 

** This is not a call for getting rid of Lanning, but more of a thought experiment in what you'd prefer a head coach specialize in for the best long-term prospects: offense or defense. BUT if you knew you had an offensive genius OC, does it give you pause? Does it at least make you consider making a crazy, bold move to ensure he doesn't get away, even if you have a "Defensive Genius" HC who's having a fairytale start?

[Just Ducky]

 The difference between head coach and coordinator is massive just ask MarinoO. Little premature in my mind to think Dilly is head coaching material. Pretty good head coach we have now and I would not want him going anywhere until he proves he’s not one. Likewise Dilly is an important cog in the scheme of things, let’s keep em both as they are.

[Desert Duck]

One thing I know is that the ASU football program is a total dumpster fire.

 

Even though Dillingham is an Arizona native, ASU alum, with deep roots down here, I hope he realizes that if ASU come calling, he needs to treat it as if a Greek Siren is beckoning him. 

 

Cover your ears, Kenny, and avert your eyes. ASU is where coaches now go to die. 

[Log Haulin]

As you mentioned, only Bama and Dawgs are led by defensive geniuses. So there is a chance we find OBD in the convo with perhaps the two best teams in the country? 

 

I'm in the Lanning camp.

 

The bigger question is if Dilly is prepared to take on a HC position. Not many Lannings or McVay's out there?

 

Lanning has what it takes to lead a top tear prog'm. He attracts quality talent at a high level.

 

Lanning and the Ducks would be just fine if Dilly bounces.  Which brings us to another question, would Dillingham be?

[Drake]

They work together well. 
 

Until I see a QB being developed, other than Bo Nix, I would rather not upset their football mojo that they have working together by answering this question. 

[debbieduck]

I won’t make any friends but Lanning is an SEC boy to his roots.  
 

Unless Oregon is prepared to offer him 9 million per year he’s going to head home. 
 

The SEC breathes, drinks, and poops out footballs.  It’s a culture there.
 

There really isn’t much to do down south but catch crawfish and play football.   
 

To be honest I take the guy coaching our offense.  Lanning hasn’t shown me much as a defensive coach.  
 

Kirby was the defensive genius at Georgia.  
 

We have more talent on D than any team in the conference and are ranked near the bottom. 
 

We lost to UCLA second half.   They hung 30 on us in the rain and cold in Oregon; in their first true road game.  
 

We play them again it will be sunny and not in Oregon.  We still gave up almost 8 yards per carry to their back. 

 

Just my observations. 

[EOFan]

I'm sorry, but what a bizarre subject to have! 

 

Can we just put our arms around this team, these coaches and all of the Oregon Duck fans across the country and enjoy everything that is happening right now? 

[debbieduck]

On 10/29/2022 at 8:59 AM, EOFan said:

I'm sorry, but what a bizarre subject to have! 

 

Can we just put our arms around this team, these coaches and all of the Oregon Duck fans across the country and enjoy everything that is happening right now? 

I agree.  I let myself get baited into answering that.   Lol.   
 

Oregon is fun to watch again.   Go Ducks 
 

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/29/2022 at 8:35 AM, debbieduck said:

Just my observations. 

Yep. I do want all views from everyone...even if they are all negative...on GameDay.

 

IMHO, Lanning will not be headed anywhere soon, and yes he will get a contract boost if this season finishes as it has begun.  Interviews by John Canzano of his parents revealed a deep sense of loyalty that Dan has, thus bolting after one year is not something I see him doing.

 

Although we could bet a Duck coffee mug over it?

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/29/2022 at 8:59 AM, EOFan said:

I'm sorry, but what a bizarre subject to have! 

 

Can we just put our arms around this team, these coaches and all of the Oregon Duck fans across the country and enjoy everything that is happening right now? 

My thoughts precisely.

 

After one game people were writing on this forum that Lanning would not survive the season, Dillingham was in-over-his-head and Ty should replace Bo for major minutes.  How accurate was that?

 

By contrast...it has been only seven fricken games, and now some OBD members have all three leaving at the end of this season--no question.

 

Now, we cannot tell anyone in this forum what to think, feel or write--I do want to see all opinions.  But geez....I gotta get to the Chiropractor for the severe whiplash following opinions in just seven games.

 

My friends, this second half could be magical...I am going to enjoy it, savor it and truly appreciate it.  I am not going to go out of my way to find negative in everything.  But you are free to...

 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

I notice an absence of discussion about a rather large elephant in the room. What if Lanning + Dillingham = two football savants ping ponging off each other building a super team before our eyes. Maybe it is in their mutual interest to stay teamed up for the next two-three years and reinvent football together much like Chip and Aliotti did a decade ago.

 

These two coaches are still figuring out a lot of things about team management, roster construction, recruiting operations and much much more. Dillingham is in a prime position to both learn on the job and be in title contention year after year. The prime jobs will all be there waiting when Dilly is ready. 

[Gusduck71]

Mike Bellotti and Chip Kelly come to mind. Bellotti was not ready to retire and despite Chip's success I think the Ducks made a mistake. Mike was finding good OCs and developing them which is what a head coach does. Being the HC is totally different than being a OC or DC. I say we stick with Lanning and hope Kenny stays for at least three years.

[EOFan]

Couldn't have said better Charles, thanks for the reply! 

[AnotherOD]

Not trying to be a contrarian; and, I understand the enthusiasm for the Ducks (especially on the offensive side of the ball); BUT, 

 

Before we have Lanning heading to Alabama and Dillingham to Ohio State...

 

Maybe we should wait and see how things work outside the Pac-12?

 

We saw the Georgia game.

 

Since then BYU has gone in the tank, WSU has gone in the tank, everyone is mostly beating up on Stanford and Arizona...

 

UCLA was great... but it still was UCLA who hasn't been much of a player in football since Donahue left in 1995.

 

Utah, Oregon State, and possibly USC will tell us some more...

 

BUT, it is still the Pac-12, which hasn't been great in football in a loooong time. The conference seems to be up a tick this year; but, one sort of wonders how much of that is a net positive influx of transfer talent, especially QB, maybe some positive coaching moves, and pretty much the same thing we have been watching the last several seasons (a conference arguably at or near the bottom of the Power 5 conferences).

 

Recall

 

The great 46-7 run under Chip Kelly?

 

Great but mostly some OOC patsies and the Pac-12. Now the Pac-12 did have a few good teams over those years, so not skipping over that; BUT,

 

Against half-decent or better programs not in the Pac-12, Chip was: 4-4

 

2009 Boise State (L)

2009 Utah (W)

2009 Ohio State (L)

2010 Tennessee (W)

2010 Auburn (L)

2011 LSU (L)

2011 Wisconsin (W)

2012 Kansas State (W)

 

It all very well right now; and, you can only play your schedule; but, I'd say before we go off the rails in enthusiasm, maybe we pump the breaks a tiny bit until we see some more OUTSIDE the Pac-12.

 

Not wanting to bang on Pac-12 football unnecessarily; but, maybe it is a point that still needs to be recognized.

 

Edited October 29, 2022 by AnotherOD

[EOFan]

On 10/29/2022 at 9:06 AM, debbieduck said:

I agree.  I let myself get baited into answering that.   Lol.   
 

Oregon is fun to watch again.   Go Ducks 
 

 

Thanks debbieduck, really looking forward to the game today! 

[EOFan]

You make some good points AnotherOD.

 

I can't use comparative scores or results with any real meaning, but old Stanford beat Norte Dame the other day.

 

Syracuse really should have beat highly ranked Clemson last weekend. 

 

Well a middle of the road Norte Dame is currently dominating those same Syracuse Orange. 

 

I think we have a really good team at Oregon and by the end of the season we could be on the verge of being great and able to play with almost any team including those Bulldogs. 

 

Final thought, literally one game at a time and enjoy every minute! 

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/29/2022 at 11:23 AM, AnotherOD said:

It all very well right now; and, you can only play your schedule; but, I'd say before we go off the rails in enthusiasm, maybe we pump the breaks a tiny bit until we see some more OUTSIDE the Pac-12.

 

Not wanting to bang on Pac-12 football unnecessarily; but, maybe it is a point that still needs to be recognized.

If you want to go negative on GameDay....go for it.  There is a ton I disagree with in your conclusions, but again--not doing it today.  Let's just say that the period you refer to is in my wheelhouse, with over 100 analysis articles personally written and reams of articles on this site over the last 11 years.

 

But I don't want to get into the weeds of that now.

 

Another mischaracterization you made was painting anyone who does not wish to see so many negative views at a time to savor as, "off the rails in enthusiasm?"  C'mon, that is over-the-top labeling that is inaccurate. 

[AnotherOD]

Maybe there was a more productive way to make the argument?

 

I would say the argument: that Oregon is playing better for sure but a big chunk of that is returning to the safety of the generally weak Pac-12 and while it has looked fantastic at times it isn't quite the massive improvement some Duck proponents seem to be suggesting (and not that it isn't good - its still good).

 

Something like:

 

Pro Duck side:

 

80% Ducks improving / 20% schedule

 

A decent portion of the college football world outside the Pac-12 footprint and a lot of the college football punditry:

 

20% Ducks improving / 80% playing Pac-12 teams

 

My guess is it is something like:

 

60% Ducks improving / 40% getting to beat up the Pac-12

 

And I think 60% is fantastic because I felt these Ducks on paper should have been pretty good game one. The main point being I would say a big yet to be seen piece of evidence is missing. Again, not the team's fault all we have is Georgia, slumping BYU, and Eastern to this point.

[Lrod]

Why even make this thread?  Smh

 

Disrespectful and just not called for