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Canzano: Pac-12 and San Diego State in a Dance

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Canzano: "The Pac-12 Conference has had "ongoing communication" with SDSU as a potential expansion target, per a well-placed source."

 

WWW.JOHNCANZANO.COM

Parties in "ongoing communication."

 

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A 35,000 capacity stadium?  Geez, do we need another Reser or Martin stadium?  (This is part tongue-in-cheek)

 

Just not very enthusiastic about it...

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Mr. FishDuck

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Parties in "ongoing communication."

 

Perhaps more like Ongoing Desperation

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I'm not adverse to the smaller size of their stadium, that can easily be made up by the enthusiasm of the fan base.  According to the article, that enthusiasm seems to be coming in spades.  I'd rather have a smaller venue jam-packed with a raucous crowd than the tumble-weed infested lands that inhabit the Rose Bowl when UCLA plays their home games...

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On 11/2/2022 at 1:03 PM, kirklandduck said:

I'm not adverse to the smaller size of their stadium, that can easily be made up by the enthusiasm of the fan base.  According to the article, that enthusiasm seems to be coming in spades.  I'd rather have a smaller venue jam-packed with a raucous crowd than the tumble-weed infested lands that inhabit the Rose Bowl when UCLA plays their home games...

Yeah that.  Let them worry about ticket revenues, it's the TV money that counts and I agree that the LA schools rarely sell out, especially UCLA.  It's embarassing when they have to block out sections with team graphics and the TV cameras are afraid to pan out.

Edited by noDucknewby
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This would be strictly the Media market SDSU is in and Southern California footprint for the Pac-12.   Possibly keep the Big 12 out of the California footprint.  But it seems with that new Big 12 contract, not so great.

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I don’t think San Diego is bringing much if  any value to a media market distribution deal. Feels like the commissioner is desperate now. The BIG10 is probably going to need bigger brands to satisfy their media partners. Illinois at Purdue or Maryland at Rutgers isn’t going to compete with LSU at Oklahoma or Texas at Tennessee. That’s when I think the BIG10 will extend the invitation’s to join. 

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Was anyone impressed with the crowd at Cal. Oregon looked like they had more fans.

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The new Snapdragon Stadium is expandable to 55,000 (mostly to accommodate professional sports).  IF SDSU joins the PAC, I think it is likely the stadium will be expanded to fulfill ticket demands.  San Diego is a sports starved city since the Chargers left town.

 

By the way, I grew up in San Diego and attended many events at San Diego Stadium/Jack Murphy Stadium/Qualcomm Stadium/whatever it was named at the time.  I do NOT miss it.  It was austere and located in a river bed that included more than a few (million) bugs.  I went to SDSU and recall with angst when the home team was ranked and playing Arizona, who was ranked in the Top 10.  The game was close and ended with SDSU in the redzone and fumbled on the last play at the 1.  There was plenty of enthusiasm for the team and the game that night.  I don't know the attendance, but it was near to filling Jack Murphy Stadium.  So there is potential in adding the school to the conference.

Edited by Mudslide
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Here is a spreadsheet I created for the most talked about colleges rumored to be on the list to join the Pac 12.  San Diego State doesn't have the best TV numbers, but I have a feeling if they joined the Pac 12, those would jump because they did join the Pac 12.  They have the highest alumni base and 2nd best TV market size.  They have the largest undergraduate population.

 

College Undergrad Stadium Capacity city size/Metro TV Market size TV numbers 2015-19 TV numbers 2021 Fan Base Alumni
SDST 33778 35000 1.4mil/3.3mil (27) 63K 198K 0.61 Mil 300000
UNLV 25869 36,800-40K 661K/2.8mil (40) 55K 34K 0.2 Mil 140067
Fresno St. 21776 40727 546K/786K (55) 127K 45K 0.82 Mil 300000
Boise St. 22433 36387 241K/462K (101) 476K 657K 0.89 Mil 80000
SMU 6908 32000 1.29mil/6.48mil (5) 232K 164K 0.19 Mil 114000

 

 

I pulled fanbase from here: 

 

 

I pulled the 2015-19 numbers from here:

MEDIUM.COM

TV viewership isn’t always the best way to measure a college football program’s value. But here’s how each school ranks since 2015.

 

I pulled the TV ratings from 2021 from here:

MEDIUM.COM

See which teams brought in the most TV viewers during the 2021 regular season.

 

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Ranking the most-watched college football programs in 2021

Oregon #10 and USC #32. lol

 

Ducks should do whats best for themselves, not the conference. Conference failed when they let USC and UCLA go. I'm not sure the conference is salvageable money wise to compete with the SEC and Big 10. 

 

 

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I did a little research on the game I mentioned earlier in this thread.  That year, 1975, SDSU was undefeated and ranked #13 in the country.  They had crushed Oregon State 25-0 that year!  Arizona came in ranked #15.  Arizona came away with the last second win, 28-21.  And there were over 55,000 fans in the sold out stadium.  So SDSU can draw.  Given all the metrics, if the PAC is to stay afloat, SDSU would be a decent addition to the conference.

 

         
Edited by Mudslide
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I think San Diego State would be a good addition for the PAC. Additionally, IMHO, SDSU is also the best fit for the conference compared to the other proposed schools. Of course, the optimal outcome is both USC and UCLA changing their minds and opting to stay in the PAC-12. However, if the PAC-12 can somehow keep UCLA in the conference and add SDSU, I think the PAC has a very good chance of surviving and even thriving. Let USC go to the B1G if that's what they want - who knows, the Trojans football team may end up becoming Nebraska 2.0.

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Not many schools make sense when the PAC considers expansion. However, SDSU does make sense. It is in the natural or geographic footprint of the PAC conference.

 

SDSU provides a foundation and exposure in the talent rich socal region. The remaining 10 schools need exposure to the region. For example Utah needs a game in socal every other year where they can invite prospects. A 2 or 3 hour drive south to San Diego is doable for a top recruit and family to make on a Saturday for recruits. 

 

SoCal recruits need PAC games to watch Saturday night. The PAC cannot surrender that market to the BIG or BIG 12. 

 

SDSU makes about $4 million a year from the MWC media rights. So even a half share of PAC media rights for a few years is a big raise. A PAC invite makes more sense than SDSU joining the BIG 12. Much less travel.

 

The real question is who would make the best travel partner for the Aztecs? The PAC business model is traveling in pairs.........

 

 

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Ducks should bail for the big 10. Major conferences are growing stronger and the the Pac 12/10 is turning into a mid major.   

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IMHO, I think the Ducks and the remaining PAC teams are better off staying together as there will be more of a shot to make the CFP when the new format kicks in as compared to the chances in a crowded B1G conference.

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I realize money and football prestige is ultimately what is compelling all of this but the Pac 12 has a long history of rivalries and institutional ties that should strongly be considered in football and many other sports.  Sure, invite SDSU.  Also contract with Sofi stadium and have the teams play multiple games there every year.  That will preserve the Southern California footprint.

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I would also add that once USC and UCLA move to the Big 10, Pac12 teams in all sports should refuse to play them.  Let’s see how enthusiastic their fans will be regularly playing and watching games against the likes of Purdue, Indiana and the great majority of the boring schools in that conference.  Predict even less fan attendance and interest in store for UCLA and USC.

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L0hunter....you are new and I like your posts already.  Do keep sharing your thoughts and WELCOME!

Mr. FishDuck

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Personally I'm also thinking that the Pac will need to expand even further.  Bring in SDSU but also UNLV, SMU, and either Fresno St. or Boise St.  If the UC regents somehow force UCLA to stay then Fresno/Boise aren't needed.  We already have the 4 corner state universities, pulling in UNLV and SMU makes sense to expand exposure and recruiting blueprint into the SW and Texas.  Imagine how many recruits would see Oregon games on regular basis if they're playing in Dallas?

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On 11/2/2022 at 9:19 PM, VegasDuck said:

Ducks should bail for the big 10. Major conferences are growing stronger and the the Pac 12/10 is turning into a mid major.   

I used to think that way as well. But, with the expanded playoff I feel the Ducks would do better becoming Clemson of the west. Rule the west coast and make the playoff every year. UO can survive just fine with lower media rights. But, I would like to see them add a clause with the PAC-? that they keep the lions share of bowl/playoff money. It is crazy to have to even split that with the tagalongs.

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Expanding to just expand won't help the Pac 12 financially.  We need schools who would help the bottom line or at the very least not hurt it.  IMO, only SDST won't hurt the bottom line.  All the other schools don't move the football TV needle, which is a huge part of where the TV money comes from.  SMU is in Dallas, but nobody watches their football games.

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On 11/3/2022 at 9:38 AM, L0hunter said:

I realize money and football prestige is ultimately what is compelling all of this but the Pac 12 has a long history of rivalries and institutional ties that should strongly be considered in football and many other sports.  Sure, invite SDSU.  Also contract with Sofi stadium and have the teams play multiple games there every year.  That will preserve the Southern California footprint.

Welcome @L0hunter!

 

Look forward to seeing/reading more of your posts 👍

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