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Canzano: Pac-12 Expansion Ramps Up

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SDSU and SMU under the spotlight.

When USC and UCLA left the Pac-12 Conference last summer, they took a whopping 6.7 million Southern California television households with them.

 

George Kliavkoff appears motivated to replace that divot. The Pac-12 has been in communication with San Diego State. Kliavkoff, the conference commissioner, is reportedly headed to Dallas to talk with SMU on Wednesday.

 

What you need to know:

 

• The Pac-12 is on a mission to replace the football inventory lost by the UCLA/USC defection to the Big Ten. That’s 23 combined football games and a pile of men’s basketball games.

 

• Adding San Diego State would get the Pac-12 back into Southern California and regain 1.13 million television households. 

 

• Kliavkoff met in December with officials at San Diego State, a conference source told me. A 45-minute meeting between the sides took place in the time around Oregon’s Dec. 28 appearance in the Holiday Bowl, I’m told.

 

• Adding SMU would bring the DFW market with it. That’s 2.96 million TV homes. 

 

• SMU + San Diego State = 4.1 million combined TV households. That will be attractive to media partners. But after the dust settles, the Pac-12 would still have ~2.6 million fewer television homes than it did before the departures of USC/UCLA.

 

 

WWW.JOHNCANZANO.COM

SDSU and SMU under the spotlight.

 

Canzano's listing of Oregon and Portland's market is a portion size of what Oregon's brand brings overall.  Oregon comes in at number 7 overall drawing fanbase viewing.  This is a great study by Tony Altimore analyzing the 130 FBS fan bases.  Interesting total fanbase estimates for each conference, Pac 12 sits at 23.5 million while the Big12 is 11.6 million  Good Read:

 

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

The Ducks have one of the biggest fan bases in the nation. But where do they stack up among the most beloved teams in college football?

 

 

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I wonder where viewership is with a team like Texas Tech added to the mix as well? Would give a West Texas footprint and a decent in-state conference rivalry matchup.

 

We don't need an even number of teams. The PAC no longer has divisions. We just need the right mix of viewership and competition.

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On 2/8/2023 at 9:57 AM, NJDuck said:

 Adding SMU would bring the DFW market with it. That’s 2.96 million TV homes. 

When writers cite this stuff--it is the media metric being used, but it is WRONG.  That same metric shows a very low media market in Oregon, yet the Ducks are No. 7 in the world for global fans.  The metric used for SMU is the Dallas market, when there are NOT 3 million people watching Mustang football, otherwise the 32K stadium would be a lot larger.

 

This use of media market size is deceptive and inaccurate to me on both sides of the spectrum as I've demonstrated.

 

Sure. They know what they're doing...

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Mr. FishDuck

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On 2/8/2023 at 12:06 PM, Charles Fischer said:

When writers cite this stuff--it is the media metric being used, but it is WRONG.  That same metric shows a very low media market in Oregon, yet the Ducks are No. 7 in the world for global fans.  The metric used for SMU is the Dallas market, when there are NOT 3 million people watching Mustang football, otherwise the 32K stadium would be a lot larger.

 

This use of media market size is deceptive and inaccurate to me on both sides of the spectrum as I've demonstrated.

I agree with you. 

 

This same metric could be used when discussing the LA schools (obviously to a lesser degree) yet B1G still jumped all over them. Media negotiations are based off possible eyeballs... not actual eyeballs. The LA area does not watch college sports. Otherwise, USC would have more fans than Oregon. 

 

This tells me the visual media outlets could care less about real fans. They just want large numbers that look good when throwing proposals in front of possible advertisers. Similar to print media continuing to print magazines even though no one buys them. They need to have circulation numbers to back up their inflated advertising rates which is where the real money is coming from.

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On 2/8/2023 at 3:06 PM, Charles Fischer said:

When writers cite this stuff--it is the media metric being used, but it is WRONG.  That same metric shows a very low media market in Oregon, yet the Ducks are No. 7 in the world for global fans.  The metric used for SMU is the Dallas market, when there are NOT 3 million people watching Mustang football, otherwise the 32K stadium would be a lot larger.

 

This use of media market size is deceptive and inaccurate to me on both sides of the spectrum as I've demonstrated.

That is what I like about Tony Altimore's information.  Showing where the Ducks are sitting with our national fanbase.  Our brand is growing each year, like Charles pointed out, not just nationally, but world wide.  Go Ducks!

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So many valid view points on this topic and a few other threads.

 

The media moguls have probably made it clear what direction they want the PAC to take for expansion.  GK is in Dallas for a reason. This trip potentially discredits previous statements that said we get the media rights first. Then we expand!

 

It may be get your expansion lined out how we want it, then approved by the 10 Presidents, then you get the media rights. And that's okay. It may not be what many of us would like but at least the PAC may be moving forward on both fronts. 

 

All the moving parts are at least moving. Close the deal GK and lets get the future PAC rolling.

 

Oregon is the brand that nationally drives the PAC bus. Having a game in DFW and San Diego every other year will boost recruiting. 

 

GO DUCKS........

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I discovered an interesting bit of news that explains why the PAC12 and the BIG10 are going after the academic schools so vigorously.

 

Apparently, Research draws hundreds of millions of dollars to the degree the sports aspect is overlooked.

 

If that is the case, it explains why the conference hasn't been as concerned about it's football or basketball reputation.  Research income dwarfs athletic income.

 

Apparently, schools like SMU and Rice would be very good additions according to the strategy the conference is following.  SDSU will add a solid media market, so geography for  the two Texas schools would then be the challenge.

 

That would allow the conference an opportunity to attract Kansas, the best candidate in that region.  Then maybe a school like Tulane could round out a very good group of academic schools that hopefully would then contribute the tens of millions necessary to finance their athletic departments properly ( if they so inclined to, because CLEARLY ESPN, the only prospect for Tier 1 revenue,  IS NOT going to budge on their obvious advantage).

 

Of course SDSU could enhance their academic reputation in the process, which would bolster the conference's academia reputation and it's media market prospects.

 

How's that for those of you that want to maintain our historic conference alignment?  

 

Snagging Kansas would be a dramatic coup.  But with academic strength from the Texas schools, and being close enough proximity to those two, Utah, Colorado and Tulane, that might be an attractive incentive for Kansas to join Arizona as conference powerhouse basketball rivals.  

 

Of course, being the sport  elitist I am, I'm not as attracted to the idea, but if there is a way to budget the football powers in the conference ( in order for them to truly attract elite football players ), I'm for it because it will give Utah, the Fuskies and OBD and authentic shot at a national football title.  

 

I care about titles, and as most of you know I'm not fond of the product (students) ANY of the schools have churned out for at least a decade ( hypocritical if you ask me since it seems to me students don't matter, the money does). 

 

Maybe that satisfies both constituents: academic oriented fans and elitists like me who want more than just a brand ( hence a REAL football power) at Oregon. 

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Add SDSU, Fresno, UNLV (keep the B12 out of lucrative Pacific time zone markets) SMU, UTSA, and Tulane.

 

Now is the time for the Pac-10 conference to be bold. None of these 6 are receiving media income near what the new media deal will bring in and all would come in for a smaller piece of the pie. This would bring in the 2022 MW, AAC, and CUSA champs.

 

PODS- 

 

NORTH - OR, OR ST, UW, WSU

 

WEST - CAL, FRESNO, SDSU, STANFORD

 

CENTRAL - AZ, ASU, UNLV, UTAH

 

EAST - CU, SMU, TULANE, UTSA

 

 

 

 

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Bold Jon, but I like your Pods. I believe the conference must push east, and expand across the continent, or the conference will disband.
 

However, I might take even a bigger step east and taken South Florida becoming the first conference with schools in Cali, Texas, and Florida. The Bulls are a too 100 institution, R1, and top 15 tv market.

 

Also, I would want to add Rice for that Houston tv market and their academic status over UTSA, thus creating at Gulf Coast Pod of SMU, Rice, Tulane, South Florida. 
 

The conference would then provide content for every viable tv slot from “High Noon” to “After Dark”. Networks want content and the conference would gain exposure.

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On 2/8/2023 at 10:45 PM, Mike West said:

Apparently, Research draws hundreds of millions of dollars to the degree the sports aspect is overlooked.

 

If that is the case, it explains why the conference hasn't been as concerned about it's football or basketball reputation.  Research income dwarfs athletic income.

They should look at UNLV.  Las Vegas is growing. turning into a sports mega city.  Also, "UNLV achieves its goal of Tier 1 research university status several years ahead of schedule."

THENEVADAINDEPENDENT.COM

UNLV had been explicit since at least 2013 about its goal of getting on the list, which includes the top 2.5 percent of higher education institutions. In 2010, it was designated as Tier 2, or an institution...

 

 

THENEVADAINDEPENDENT.COM

UNLV had been explicit since at least 2013 about its goal of getting on the list, which includes the top 2.5 percent of higher education institutions. In 2010, it was designated as Tier 2, or an institution...

 

 

 

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We'd need a ton of extra money from Amazon and ESPN.  Bringing in 6 new schools means we need to bring in an additional 210 million (6 X 35 mil) when those 6 schools would become full members of the Pac 12.  No school is going to join the Pac conference and continually be paid less.  It wasn't until year 3 Utah got a full share of the media rights.

 

I'm all for grabbing schools, but if Amazon and ESPN don't average the pay as much as the B12, does it make sense?

 

TV markets/Stadium size/Undergraduate

Dallas Fort Worth #5 32,000/expanding to 45,000   6,908

San Diego #27          35,000                                     33,708

San Antonio #31       36,582/Can be 64,000             29,801

Las Vegas #40          36,000                                     25,869

New Orleans #50      30,000                                     14,669

 

That doesn't really excite me.

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