2021 Football Schedule Released: Thoughts?

[Charles Fischer]

The new football schedule is interesting, and fortunately we have seven home games with two on Fridays.  So we have to play Washington twice in a row in Seattle?

 

I see Alabama has announced they will have a full stadium with 100,000 attending each game for their season....I wonder about Autzen?

 

2021 FOOTBALL SCHEDULE ANNOUNCED by GoDucks.com

 

[30Duck]

I like it, watch out for Stony Brook.  It looks like the Ducks will be at my predicted winner of the South, UCLA, so that will be tough, and at the end of the season at 2nd place, Utah. At UW. Oregon has to play the 4th place team in the North sometime, somewhere. 

[Charles Fischer]

I don't like playing at Utah at all!

[30Duck]

12 minutes ago, Charles Fischer said:

I don't like playing at Utah at all!

 

[David Marsh]

Quick Pick Predictions...

 

OREGON FOOTBALL 2021 SCHEDULE
Sept. 4: vs. Fresno State W
Sept. 11: at Ohio State L - I really want to give Oregon the W here and I do think Oregon has a good chance... just can't at this time.
Sept. 18: vs. Stony Brook W
Sept. 25: vs. Arizona W
Oct. 2: at Stanford W
Oct. 9: BYE
Oct. 15 (Fri.): vs. California W - REVENGE!
Oct. 23: at UCLA W - Honestly... I think Oregon could lose this one... but I want to live with some Green colored glasses right now and see a playoff berth!
Oct. 30: vs. Colorado W
Nov. 6: at Washington W - I feel really good about this one at the moment... the talent gap is widening.. the coaching gap is widening ... and players are going to want it!
Nov. 13: vs. Washington State W
Nov. 20: at Utah W - Utah has some nice pieces but I think Oregon will be the more veteran and better team.
Nov. 27: vs. Oregon State W - REVENGE!

 

Pac-12 Championship Game: Oregon v USC - Oregon Wins!

 

Oregon wins its 3rd consecutive Pac-12 Championship and gets a playoff berth!

 

Edited March 2, 2021 by David Marsh

[30Duck]

 I think you nailed it, David, even with your objective look at the Ohio State game.

[30Duck]

What does NBC Sports Northwest think of Oregon's schedule?

 

[geoquack]

Looks like we're back on the normal rotation.  No trip to Boulder.  Bummer.

 

I'm only seeing one Friday night game?  Must be including Pac-12 championship game.

 

 

Edited March 2, 2021 by geoquack

[David Marsh]

Looking at the entire schedule... Oregon is the better team in all those match-ups independently (excluding Ohio State). Now the coaching staff needs to ensure the team is up to the task of playing every single week. I think the team will look much improved this year with a full Fourth Quarter conditioning program AND Spring ball.

 

There are two weaknesses that need to be addressed the way I see it... there are more that need improvement but these two are critical.

1. Need a starting quarterback.

2. Need a run game that churns up yards. This may need a young runningback displacing Verdell from the rotation and Dye moving into a swiss army knife role where he is deployed all over the field... like he kind of was through out last season.

[Santa Rosa Duck]

So is it settled that the Ohio State game will be at Ohio State and not at a neutral site?

[Charles Fischer]

31 minutes ago, geoquack said:

I'm only seeing one Friday night game?  Must be including Pac-12 championship game.

 

We play Cal on Friday and Oregon State on Black Friday after Thanksgiving as usual; good point about the championship game as that would be on Friday too.

[David Marsh]

14 minutes ago, Santa Rosa Duck said:

So is it settled that the Ohio State game will be at Ohio State and not at a neutral site?

I think they are still in discussions about that... neutral site would be best for BOTH schools financially at this point. Right now Oregon gets paid by Ohio State to come to OSU but as OSU does not come to Oregon they will not get paid by Oregon.

 

A neutral site game will re balance the payments in some way.

[Ducks4ever]

They key games will come down to how the defense develops. If Anthony Brown looks good, I think we have a fighting chance in that one. Ohio State has also dropped head scratching games at the start of the season before they round into post-season form later in the year. Would be good if we can pick up some yards on the ground against them.... perhaps it will be from Anthony Brown himself. 

 

Defense will also be difference maker against UCLA. 

[David Marsh]

13 minutes ago, Ducks4ever said:

Defense will also be difference maker against UCLA. 

 

Absolutely... I do feel that the defense was in a much better form in the last two and a half games of last season. I feel confident that DeRuyter is going to have our defensive unit functioning at a high level early on in the season.

 

I also feel we could have our offense functioning at a higher level at the start of the season as Moorhead is going to have a FULL off-season to install his offense. He will need to ensure his starting quarterback is able to run the entire offensive playbook effectively. whether that is Brown, Butterfield, Thompson or Ashford.

[geoquack]

Goducks.com is showing the Civil War on Saturday November 27.

[geoquack]

2 hours ago, 30Duck said:

I like it, watch out for Stony Brook.  It looks like the Ducks will be at my predicted winner of the South, UCLA, so that will be tough, and at the end of the season at 2nd place, Utah. At UW. Oregon has to play the 4th place team in the North sometime, somewhere. 

 

We will be deservedly mocked and ridiculed for scheduling Stony Brook.

[Haywarduck]

Stony Brook, 1-10 against FBS schools, last one Utah State 62 SB 7. This is quite the recovery game, after tOSU. In the future it would be nice to see Oregon do the SEC thing, and schedule the game later in the season. 

[30Duck]

14 minutes ago, Haywarduck said:

it would be nice to see Oregon do the SEC thing, and schedule the game later in the season. 

 

 First thing Oregon does after the Pac-12 goes to an 8 game season.

[RatherBe]

2 hours ago, David Marsh said:

I think they are still in discussions about that... neutral site would be best for BOTH schools financially at this point. Right now Oregon gets paid by Ohio State to come to OSU but as OSU does not come to Oregon they will not get paid by Oregon.

 

A neutral site game will re balance the payments in some way.

 

That’s not quite accurate, the away team is only paid $300k to cover travel expenses. The financial incentive is the home game; it allows for more season tickets and ticket packages to be bundled together. Much like Nebraska in 2017 it was counted that Ohio State fans, and of course Oregon fans, would buy season tickets to ensure tickets for the big game. They would then sell their other tickets on the secondary market, but the U of O ticket office already got their sale. 

The bottom line is that right now Oregon is taking a major financial loss if the status quo stands. Link to PDF of contract. The force majeure clause, #12 in the contract, means there is no obligation for Ohio State to do anything to mitigate Oregon’s loss or to make any effort to reschedule the Eugene date. Right now all negotiations are not required but just a show of good faith between Gene Smith and Rob Mullens. As an FYI Oregon State received $1.7 million to go to Columbus a few years back. For Oregon that would be a lost economic opportunity as they make much more for a cupcake home game and double that for a neutral site game. At this point in time the cancellation is nothing short of disastrous for Oregon. 

[AnotherOD]

Exactly. I'd imagine the OOC economics of a home game for tOSU are in at least the $4.5-$7 million range at least. The economics for Oregon playing anyone at home are likely $3.5-$5 million against anyone.

 

Budgeting on travel for San Jose State, Utah State, Portland State or Sac State, maybe makes sense for a $1 million dollar payday for those schools. For Oregon, losing a home game is much bigger, even $1 million isn't going to make up for the potentially $3.5-$5 million dollars lost not having another home game. To take anything less than a return would be IMO a poor call, and something a program aspiring to go where Oregon wants to go, shouldn't let stand. Oregon is long past being "big timed". COVID sucks, but either you stick up for yourself or you don't. Let them play Central Michigan...

 

 

Edited March 2, 2021 by AnotherOD

[Haywarduck]

1 hour ago, RatherBe said:

 Link to PDF of contract. 

Wow, great source of information, well done. The only way we win, on this one, is to win on the field. Beating tOSU at home, priceless!

 

[David Marsh]

RatherBe thanks for the correction and information.

 

I either read something somewhere that was incorrect or misinterpreted it. Thanks for the in-depth information.

[RatherBe]

9 hours ago, David Marsh said:

RatherBe thanks for the correction and information.

 

I either read something somewhere that was incorrect or misinterpreted it. Thanks for the in-depth information.

My apologies if I sounded like I was attempting to scold you, not my intention at all. I was as surprised as anyone that the deal is such as it is. Both on account of only a $300k payment for expenses and no strategy for a canceled game. With the near certainty that the wildfires would have canceled the game regardless of the pandemic the university should consider adding some provisions to future contracts. 
 

I looked through the revenue reports for the past few years and an average game at Autzen generates about ~$3.6 million, $3 million in ticket sales and the rest in concessions, parking, and the like but not including media rights since that is a tricky thing to count. Even if it takes $1 million to bring in a G-5 opponent that is still a lot of money being left on the table on the heels of the pandemic. This doesn’t take into account the fewer season tickets that will most likely be sold. For the curious it is estimated that one Ducks football game generates an extra $6 million for Eugene businesses. The 2022 game against Georgia in Atlanta will pay Oregon a very healthy $4.5 million. 

[BigDucksFan]

15 hours ago, David Marsh said:

Oregon wins its 3rd consecutive Pac-12 Championship and gets a playoff berth!

Do you really think a one loss Pac-12 team can get into the national playoffs ??   Hmmmmmm. Only if USC and another Pac-12 top 15 team get beat by them. So is there another top 15 team in the Pac-12 ??

[nogerO]

About time?  No looks like a pretty good chance at a 9 or 10 win season.  Don't think we have the full stable to run with osu's horses-yet. I think 9-3 and a Pac-12 title game would be the least MC should be expected to do with all the hype I've been reading about the coaches and team.  Only thing holding them back right now is QB and I for one think that will be answered very quickly.  So...

 

GO Ducks!!!

[Annie]

Two night games already. Ugh. Won't be sure until September if I'll attend this season, but if I do I hope the rest are day games.

[David Marsh]

5 hours ago, BigDucksFan said:

Do you really think a one loss Pac-12 team can get into the national playoffs ??   Hmmmmmm. Only if USC and another Pac-12 top 15 team get beat by them. So is there another top 15 team in the Pac-12 ??

I think it is possible... and it is March so I feel I can sunshine pump a little bit. At this moment there are so  many unknowns. I think the defense is going to be good to potentially great with DeRuyter's scheme. I also think the offense will have enough time to actually learn the scheme and gel as a unit, which never seemed to fully happen at any point last year. The offense had individuals step up from game-to-game but never really a whole team.

 

Though the question as to whether or not a Pac-12 one-loss team will get into the playoff... I think it really comes down to style points and what the Big-12 looks like. Barring major upsets we can reasonably pencil in Clemson, the SEC Champion (probably Alabama), and Ohio State. The fourth spot is up for grabs between the Big-12 Champion, the Pac-12 Champion and Notre Dame.

 

If Oregon loses to Ohio State but its not a horrific loss and Oregon wins the conference with some style... then I think Oregon can grab a playoff spot over a 1-loss Big-12 team.

 

For now... I think I will just live in my optimistic bubble and wait for spring ball to start.

[Haywarduck]

1 hour ago, Annie said:

Two night games already. Ugh. Won't be sure until September if I'll attend this season, but if I do I hope the rest are day games.

I too harken back to the days of the 1:00 kick-off. Seems like college football start times are now the toy of tv rights with little thought about the fanbase.

 

Some of my fondest memories as a kid were Saturdays when there was a home game. Load up in the car and head to Autzen for a beautiful afternoon of Duck football. Might be a tailgate party before the game, and maybe a stop for dinner on the way home. The outcome of the game wasn't critical, you did know the Ducks would give it their all.

 

The day was all about the Ducks experience. Writing about his makes me remember going down on the field and asking for chin straps. I still remember looking up at Dan Fouts and asking for his chin strap, great memories indeed!

[RatherBe]

Since the playoff started there have been two one-loss Pac-12 champs: 2014 Oregon and 2016 Washington - they both made it. If 2015 Stanford, 2017 USC, and 2019 Oregon didn’t drop a second game they all would have almost certainly made it in. It’s not guaranteed that a one loss Pac-12 champ gets in but the odds are good that they do. 
This is not a friendly schedule. Anything from 12-0 to 8-4 wouldn’t shock me. 8-4 would be pretty disappointing, but all that would take are road losses to Ohio State, Washington, Utah, and then one random one where the team comes out flat.
 

[Tandaian]

A Pac 12 1 loss team would definitely be in the conversation for a final 4 berth.  If it is Oregon and the 1 loss is vs tOSU, who also will likely be in the discussion, we'd have a real good chance.  As always, it is who you lost to and when.  In 2016 UW played one of the easiest NC schedule in the nation and got a bid with only 1 loss against a 5-7 ASU team.

[UODuckfan12]

So, section 12 leaves wiggle room for Oregon to have re-negotiations or cancellation when tOSU cancelled due to COVID. Did this not happen and we just figured it would be a sign of good faith to play and hope for something in return?? We should have discussed possible resolutions ie see you in Autzen 2022.