Oregon and the Pac-12 in a Six-Year Trial?

[FishDuck Article]

Oregon fans will know soon what the new Pac-12 media deal is, over the anticipated five or six year period. So much has happened in the last nine months, and I am sure that you have been whipped around in your emotions as I have. Have you softened your position about moving to the Big-10? (B1G) I was having fun ...

 

Oregon and the Pac-12 in a Six-Year Trial?

FISHDUCK.COM

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Oregon fans will know soon what the new Pac-12 media deal is, over the anticipated five or six year period. So much has happened in the last nine...

[Haywarduck]

The article got me to think about the LA schools move to another conference like to the two coaches who left us. 

 

Slick and MariØ left our team for more short term money and for something they perceived as better. Both of them have failed miserably.

 

Do we want to chase short term money and fail like the LA schools undoubtedly will? I would rather potentially suffer a little, and keep our integrity. A reputation is earned over decades, and often destroyed by one shortsighted move. 

 

Our program will be desirable if we build it like we are. Our program will lose the one thing it has fought for over the decades by the doing the easy thing, leaving the Pac. We need to stay in the Pac, and win big. The eyeballs, and money will come, and we can keep our probity, unlike the LA schools and the old coaches.

[Smith72]

Thanks, Charles, for today's article and Our Beloved Duck Forum!  You make interesting  points to consider.

 

After the traitors have been in the BIG for 2 or 3 years we'll know more about their plight.  We'll know about the Pac-10 (12-16) and whether becoming the Clemson of the west coast develops.

 

However, I worry about the future of football.  I love the sport!  Fantastic game.  But one only has to look at the decreasing numbers of high school youth playing football nationally to question whether the sport will be relevant in 20 years.

 

It is already impacting the viewer numbers in the West.

 

Another point I ponder about is the injury concerns with football.  Traumatic Brain Injury is nothing to ignore!  I worry about my 8th grade grandson who loves football.  He will be a good high school player next year.  He's the kind of player who has and will play while injured.  

 

For me, my desire is to remain in the Pac-? as long as possible.  Leaving would be hypocritical!  At my age I'm going to just enjoy as much Oregon Football as I can.

 

Go Ducks!

 

 

[Rufus]

Joining the B1G isn’t chasing short term money. It’s a long term guarantee of being in one of only two top tier conferences.  
 

It’s easy to say stick it out in the PAC when we don’t know if the B1G has any interest in adding Oregon or not.  It would be foolish to say that if we knew the B1G really was interested in adding Oregon. 

Edited March 20, 2023 by Rufus

[12Duck72]

Great article Charles. I've been staying out of the realignment talk lately because it has been getting nasty and personal between fans of each conference, sports writers and anyone with a keyboard. Much like the rest of our society, sports talk is turning into a "us vs them" food fight where if someone has a different opinion than they must be spreading fake news. For me, sports and more importantly OBD are a fun distraction from all of this and I love watching competition.

 

Your article sums up how I have felt all along. I grew up with the PAC 10 and like you have watched how this conference has let everyone pass them by. We all know the history of bad decisions and lack of caring. It's a damn shame because this conference should be one of the big boys.

 

I don't want the Ducks to leave. I really don't. However, after watching how all of us have built this program up from the school with Donald Duck as a mascot to a nationally known and respected brand I would hate to see it all wasted on staying in a conference that I believe is on it's last legs.

 

Yes, they may sign a deal and keep it together for a few more years. Ok fine. But long term it is just not sustainable and the BIG 10 will have to address USC and UCLA being out on a island for the reasons everyone has mentioned.

 

When BIG 10 calls, and I believe they will at some point, Oregon has to go.

[Steven A]

"Que sera sera" and "Just win baby".  We'll be fine as we have "relative" strength in our guardian uncle.

 

I'm also glad the canaries in So Cal will be testing the "truck stop conference's" (kudos to Mr. Walton) coal mine.  I sure we'll hear from some disgruntled student athletes after they graduate or transfer back to the Pac about the insanity of the travel and weather in some of their new locations.

 

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 3/20/2023 at 6:38 AM, Smith72 said:

After the traitors have been in the BIG for 2 or 3 years we'll know more about their plight.  We'll know about the Pac-10 (12-16) and whether becoming the Clemson of the west coast develops.

Agreed.  All part of what we learn in this six year trial.  I do NOT want to leave, but if the revenue gap continues--we may have to leave for survival of all sports at Oregon.

[Charles Fischer]

On 3/20/2023 at 7:16 AM, Rufus said:

It’s easy to say stick it out in the PAC when we don’t know if the B1G has any interest in adding Oregon or not.

There are currently 14 teams in the B1G, and there will be 16 in a year and a half.  Based upon our global fan base, Oregon would rank No. 4 in the B1G if Oregon joined them, that is fourth among 17 teams?  Seventh largest fan base size among all conferences?  Bigger than USC, UCLA, Texas A&M, Auburn, LSU, Georgia and Alabama?

 

Add to that is how Oregon has been under-viewed due to our terrible TV contracts (or lack of them) and our starting times.  With streaming--our viewership could double considering how we've been held back by the current media contract, and prior management.

 

Who wouldn't want Oregon?

 

[Dowlemight75]

First off I’m a husky fan then a cougar fan and then a pac12 fan and I’ve been dislocated in a few different state, now ny, for the last 24 years. I agree with you that streaming will increase ur viewers as right now if it is not nationally televised or on pac12 network I can not see it but if it were streamed I could and would. As far as realignment goes, I’m a husky fan first.  If they moved to BIG I would still be a husky fan.  It’s not like when the Sonics moved to Oklahoma City and I lost interest in pro basketball.

 

The husky’s will still be in Seattle. I do hate how big tv corps and money is motivating all this and not the good of college football. In the end it does look like it will eventually come down to two huge conferences.   And no big 12 you are not one of them. No one is even coming after the teams you have now. What does that say about ur conference as it stands right now.  It’s not bad it’s just not desired. In closing I wish the pac12 would stay together.  I like the pac12 vs other conferences but if the husky’s moved I would follow and over time would likely root for big ten over sec all day. 

[Mudslide]

Great ponderables, Charles.  Thanks.

 

I, like most of our forum, have two heads about the future of our Ducks.  I'm firmly in the conservative stay-in-the-PAC group.  But I realize that money drives all things commercial.  And collegiate football is most assuredly a commercial enterprise.  We've already hashed out the changing future as regards the NIL, player agency (pay to play), transfer portal, etc.  What also faces the Ducks and other members of the PAC is (unfortunately) the trend towards Super Conferences of 20+ teams.  That's the future that media rights money will drive.

 

Yep, as much as I hate having OBD travel to, as Bill Walton describes it, the "Truck Stop Conference" in the dead of winter, it behooves them to sign on.  A $30 million funding deficit relative to the B1G is a tall order to fix.  Uncle Phil is in his 80's and won't be the OBD benefactor forever.  Even if he makes some other supportive commitments, they by their nature may not be future proof.

 

I've bemoaned these changes to collegiate sports for months now.  These issues truly take the fun out of supporting the teams in the way we always have.  I guess we all have to change with these new times ourselves.  But I'm most definitely not going to like it.

[The Kamikaze Kid]

Five or six years under a new contract could also give the Pac/ B12 and Mountain West schools time to talk and possibly form some new conferences. I think straight up mergers water things down with too many teams. I could see a new conference form that  covers the west coast and the south west through Texas. UCLA may even decide to join this new conference.

 

I'd think a conference that had Seattle, Portland, the Bay area, LA/ San Diego, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Texas and UO's national fan base would be competitive with the Big and SEC while keeping local rivalries intact.

[Jon Joseph]

What a terrific take. Loved the analogy of moving to a better-paying job even if you know it will not be as good as the old job in many respects.

 

Will things stand still on the expansion front until 2029/30? Will Clemson and FSU get a bigger piece of the ACC pie? Lots of money owed if these two moves to the SEC but in the long run may be worth it. Especially if the moves are accompanied by the undoubted litigation that likely would be settled with a lower buyout than currently exists. This would put ESPN, owner, and operator of the ACC and SEC networks in a very interesting position.

 

I expect that any SEC expansion will be countered by the B1G. I do hope that Oregon will look out for itself with a relatively low-cost buyout should Oregon be invited to join the B1G before 2030 and Oregon agrees to accept the invitation. Also as Charles has pointed out elsewhere on The Forum, Oregon and any champion or participant in the college football and men's basketball tournament should receive a bigger piece of the media pie. I also believe the most-watched teams deserve more media money but this could be seen as an overreach by Oregon by other Pac conference members.

 

The other thing that could alter the expansion calculus, is what happens if the NLRB, a federal or state court, or a state legislature decides that 'student-athletes' are employees of a given school or schools? How many schools with football and men's basketball teams, among other sports teams, decide to no longer offer scholarships for these and other sports? And how would this affect Title 9 and women's sports? This issue is currently in front of the NLRB seeking a reversal of the decision that Northwestern's 'student athletes' are not employees and is also being litigated in a number of jurisdictions.

 

Will the NCAA under new leader Charlie Barker be able to convince Congress to give the NCAA and its member schools anti-trust and other relief in regards to schools being employers? I do not see this happening.

 

As Charles points out in this excellent article, with the college football playoff expanding to 12 teams until 2026 (rumored to go to 16 teams once ESPN's exclusive playoff broadcast rights expire in 2025/26) and with the basketball tournament being rumored to go to 80 teams will Oregon be able to make enough money off on the field and on the court success to say thanks but no thanks to the B1G?  

 

'May you live in interesting times' certainly applies to today's college football and men's basketball.

 

Thanks again for the excellent take and here's hoping that GK shows Oregon and other Pac members the money. 

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/20/2023 at 2:57 PM, cartm25 said:

I must admit, I cringe at the thought of Oregon having to be part of another media deal that can reasonably be labeled a "trial" . . . and for 6 years (no small amount of time).

 

The P12 just went through a ten-year "trial", of sorts, when the P12N was launched in 2012 that left MANY frustrated and disenchanted.

 

The idea of Rutgers potentially getting paid ~$30M more than the Ducks for college football activities annually ($180M over 6 years), is mindboggling.

Great take. I'd add Maryland, and Northwestern to Rutgers getting paid and also UCLA receiving a full share based on its location and CBB team and most certainly not on the performance in football and attendance at the Rose Bowl. 

 

Once the novelty wears off how many B1G fans are going to trip to the Rose Bowl to watch regular season games versus the above-listed teams and also Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Minnesota, and even 'nearby' Nebraska fans?

 

OT - I am ticked off that the Pac-10 is going to allow the Trojans and Bruins beach volleyball teams to compete in the Pacific conference. Why show any largess to these 2 schools?

[NJDuck]

PAC-12 ‘NOT CLOSE’ TO A DEAL WITH ESPN: REPORT

 

Here's the latest opinion surrounding the Pac-12 media deal:

 

"In Terms of what goes down with sports media, Andrew Marchand knows his stuff.  If he says a deal isn't close, I'm inclined to believe that's the case.  That would seem to go against the recent momentum the conference appeared to be experiencing."

 

Not sure how the outcome will be exactly moving forward with this new media deal.  My hope is Oregon will be very shrewd in their endeavor moving forward.

 

Thanks Charles for a great article.  I do agree, wanting the Pac-12 to be successful, but they always seem to know how to shoot themselves in the foot.  I think the BIG conference will eventually come knocking and Oregon should make the move.

 

PAC-12 Media Situation Gets Worse, Not Near An ESPN Deal – OutKick

WWW.OUTKICK.COM

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The PAC-12's disaster of a media rights situation continues to be stuck in the mud. Will a deal be reached with ESPN?

 

[12Duck72]

On 3/20/2023 at 11:12 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 will Oregon be able to make enough money off on the field and on the court success to say thanks but no thanks to the B1G? 

 

 

That's an interesting thought. For me personally,  I would take the guarantee of what the BIG 10 or any conference was offering.

 

If the program takes a downturn that affects your bottom line. Depends on how you look at it I guess.

 

Probably why I'm not an entrepreneur, I  like security and you can't always fall back on Uncle Phil's generosity IMHO. 

Edited March 20, 2023 by 12Duck72

[Rufus]

Do you have a link to an article that discusses USC and UCLA remaining in the PAC for beach volleyball?  Wonder why they did that? 

[David Marsh]

On 3/20/2023 at 5:34 AM, Haywarduck said:

Slick and MariØ left our team for more short term money and for something they perceived as better. Both of them have failed miserably.

Well short term money yes... But I'd say both were pursuing long term dreams. And neither realized how good they had it at Oregon and how Oregon probably enabled them to be better coaches while they were hear with our resources. 

 

Both have had a reality check to some degree. Taggart is now off to the NFL as an assistant coach. Cristobal just had an awful season and had yet another opportunity to learn some critical lessons. 

 

In both cases they thought the grass was greener outside of the PAC... Truth is... That isn't always the case and often it is a whole lot more difficult. 

 

The PAC is often referred to as a weak conference by the media... And sometimes that has been true but it is perhaps the most competitive conference as top to bottom it is always possible to lose in any given week and it is always difficult to win .

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/20/2023 at 4:56 PM, Rufus said:

Do you have a link to an article that discusses USC and UCLA remaining in the PAC for beach volleyball?  Wonder why they did that? 

I'm sorry I do not have a link. I do not recall where I saw this, probably on Canzano or Wilner. It may be due to the number of schools that 'field' a beach volleyball team.

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/20/2023 at 5:07 PM, cartm25 said:

I'm not sure about Outkick's sources, but how frustrating is this, if true:

 

Big Ten Originally Wanted Oregon, PAC-12 President Claims – OutKick

WWW.OUTKICK.COM

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The Big Ten might not have gotten its first choice with the addition of UCLA. The conference orginally wanted USC/Oregon, PAC-12 leader says.

 

That was an off-the-cuff comment by the AZ president who IMO foolishly gave an interview to Pac-10 hater Dennis Dodd. Then clickbait media sites report this 'stuff' as the truth. Within a few days of SC/UCLA saying they were leaving Dodd dissed Phil Knight as a billionaire cold calling to get his team in the B1G.

 

I'm calling BS on this take and on the president of Arizona.

[CompEngineer97]

On 3/20/2023 at 1:01 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Once the novelty wears off how many B1G fans are going to trip to the Rose Bowl to watch regular season games versus the above-listed teams and also Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Minnesota, and even 'nearby' Nebraska fans?

 

OT - I am ticked off that the Pac-10 is going to allow the Trojans and Bruins beach volleyball teams to compete in the Pacific conference. Why show any largess to these 2 schools?

To answer the first question, they don't need people to travel. Southern California has a lot of everything, including transplants. There are more than 20,000 Michigan alumni and alumnae alone, not counting the people who grew up rooting for Michigan, because they are the children of transplants, etc. You will find similar numbers for the other schools, and the local alumni associations are chomping at the bit to see their teams at the Coli and the Rose Bowl.

 

As to the second, the other teams still want the exposure, and the coaches still want to recruit in Southern California. It's fairly common for teams to participate in other conferences when their primary conference does not have a sport in which they participate. For a long time, volleyball fell under the MPSF, not the Pac-10/12. If you have learned anything from the recent media negotiations it should be that you would be effectively cutting off your nose to spite your face.

[Pennsylvania Duck]

On 3/20/2023 at 7:07 PM, Jon Joseph said:

I'm sorry I do not have a link. I do not recall where I saw this, probably on Canzano or Wilner. It may be due to the number of schools that 'field' a beach volleyball team.

 

On 3/20/2023 at 4:56 PM, Rufus said:

Do you have a link to an article that discusses USC and UCLA remaining in the PAC for beach volleyball?  Wonder why they did that? 

 

In this LA Times article I found, it says the following sports are not going to B1G.

 

The schools’ Midwestern migration will begin on Aug. 2, 2024, and include all sports except beach volleyball, men’s volleyball and men’s and women’s water polo.

 

It doesn't state specifically those sports are staying in Pac-12 though that is the assumption.

 

 

USC and UCLA rock college sports by leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten

WWW.LATIMES.COM

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USC and UCLA are leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten, a shift that will move college football's 'Power Five' closer to a 'Power Two.'

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 3/20/2023 at 8:52 AM, Dowlemight75 said:

I agree with you

Knock me over with a Duck feather....a Husky agreed with me?

 

We welcome fans from all schools so long as they follow our simple rules about being polite and respectful.  You were, offered a great opinion, and we encourage you to post often.  (Although you will have to look away once in a while)

 

 

 

[2002duck]

I hope the PAC-12 can get a good deal to tide Oregon over until we leave for the B1G. Texas and OU going to the SEC was a big blow to the PAC. They spurned us once or twice, but it was always a possibility we could get them in the future.

 

So, when USC and UCLA joined UT & OU in abandoning the West, that pretty much doomed West coast football. Oregon and Washington have got to get out. We're both top-notch programs, but not exactly elite or blue bloods. No offense.

 

We have to hitch our wagons to the only two real conferences left: the SEC or the B1G. The student athletes will be fine. Sure, their plane rides will be a little longer, but heh, they're getting paid now!

 

In my experience, football players and basketball players were pretty much never in class physically in business school, and that was before Zoom classes or remote learning.

 

I'll miss going to Bay Area games if they don't come to the B1G, but most of the away games I go to have been to Seattle or Los Angeles. Won't be much different to me, other than we'll be on network TV!

Edited March 21, 2023 by 2002duck

[Nevada Dawg]

On 3/20/2023 at 6:38 AM, Smith72 said:

However, I worry about the future of football.  I love the sport!  Fantastic game.  But one only has to look at the decreasing numbers of high school youth playing football nationally to question whether the sport will be relevant in 20 years.

 

 

A little off topic I suppose and my comment is not meant to be critical, but I can assure you that football will remain relevant in the South for as long as the game is played. I only saw it grow in popularity over the 42 years I lived in Georgia. It is like a second religion. down there.

 

I think that college football gets a real boost in 2024 with the expansion of the playoffs to 12 teams. Given the expected prowess of the Duck football program and likely appearances on  a fairly regular basis, it would seem to be an advantage staying "at home" in the PC-12 (or whatever) as opposed to traipsing off to the B1G or elsewhere. Take care of business on the field and the future will be bright I suspect. And with more eyes seeing the Ducks in consequential games, recruiting, particularly nationally, will become easier, even if it takes some years to win the big one: e.g, see Georgia over Kirby Smart's first six years.

[Smith72]

NevadaDawg said, "...football will remain relevant in the South for as long as the game is played."

 

NevadaDawg,  I love your posts and appreciate all the input you provide to our forum.  You are a true gentleman!  I agree with you that the South really really loves football.

 

Instead of relying only on my intuition I checked for articles about high school participation in football nationally.  The first article from 2019 was interesting.  Numbers provided by the National Federation of High School Associations. 

 

High School Football Participation Is On A Decade-Long Decline

WWW.FORBES.COM

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A survey finds high school football participation at its lowest level in nearly 20 years.

 

Texas is the No. 1 state for participation (of course), but its participation-per-school rate is dropping quickly. In 2016-17 it was 153.3; in 2017-18, 135.3; and in 2018-19, 125.6.

 

In 2019 national football participation was at its lowest since 1999-2000.  In my humble opinion, I think the downward trend will continue. 

 

But hopefully football will still be #1 for the rest of my life!  Go Dawgs! (My #2 favorite team).

 

Go Ducks!

 

 

[Nevada Dawg]

On 3/20/2023 at 11:06 PM, Smith72 said:

NevadaDawg said, "...football will remain relevant in the South for as long as the game is played."

 

NevadaDawg,  I love your posts and appreciate all the input you provide to our forum.  You are a true gentleman!  I agree with you that the South really really loves football.

 

Instead of relying only on my intuition I checked for articles about high school participation in football nationally.  The first article from 2019 was interesting.  Numbers provided by the National Federation of High School Associations. 

 

High School Football Participation Is On A Decade-Long Decline

WWW.FORBES.COM

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A survey finds high school football participation at its lowest level in nearly 20 years.

 

Texas is the No. 1 state for participation (of course), but its participation-per-school rate is dropping quickly. In 2016-17 it was 153.3; in 2017-18, 135.3; and in 2018-19, 125.6.

 

In 2019 national football participation was at its lowest since 1999-2000.  In my humble opinion, I think the downward trend will continue. 

 

But hopefully football will still be #1 for the rest of my life!  Go Dawgs! (My #2 favorite team).

 

Go Ducks!

 

 

Well I am a scientist and certainly believe in data, so who am I to quarrel with you? So I won't and project my ignorance on a topic I am not up on. I will still stand on my statement, however, about the relevance of football in the South. Heck, my dearly departed wife, a Texan, argued vehemently with me and was stunned when I pointed out to her that baseball was considered the national pass time among sports. Down South games in which the ball doesn't bounce funny are sports that athletes pursue off-season to stay in shape for football season.

[kirklandduck]

 

Interesting, apparently FOX has jumped back into the fray. Might explain the lack of news about a potential deal today.