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Coaches talk to Bruce Feldman This has been one of the most entertaining college football seasons in recent memory. Neither of the top two teams in the preseason AP Top 25, Texas or Penn State, made the College Football Playoff. Nor did No. 4 Clemson or No. 6 Notre Dame. In fact, just five of the preseason top 17 made the field. We polled more than two dozen coaches from the Power 4 and Group of 5 and asked them: Who will win it all? Who is the biggest fraud? Who is the best coach and the biggest sleeper? Which team will win it all? • Georgia: 50% • Ohio State: 42% • Indiana: 4% • Oregon: 4% “I don’t think there’s any team that is just great this year. Or as good as Alabama or Georgia were when they won it, or even as good as Ohio State last year. Georgia’s O-line has matured, so that team has taken a jump. The QB is a winner. Defensively, Georgia can play big and can match up. They’re really good and they’re battle-tested.” — Group of 5 head coach “Ohio State. Georgia seems flawed. I know Indiana just beat them but I don’t think they can beat them twice. Ohio State was pretty banged up in that game. The wideouts will be healthier. On defense, Ohio State is really sound with great players. Their red zone defense is unbelievable.” — Big Ten offensive assistant coach “Indiana. They’ve played big in big games. I was really impressed with them winning at Oregon and beating Ohio State the way they did.” — Group of 5 head coach “Georgia. They look the cleanest. They’ve been getting better as the season’s gone on. They’re gonna stop the run and find your weaknesses. And they’re good at using them against you.” — SEC defensive coordinator Who do you think is the biggest fraud in the field? • Ole Miss: 29% • Texas Tech: 17% • Alabama: 17% • JMU: 8% • Oregon: 4% • Oklahoma: 4% • No answer: 21% “Ole Miss. They’ve had so many distractions with Lane Kiffin leaving, and Oklahoma is probably their only good win this year.” — Group of 5 head coach “I think Alabama should have, like, five losses this year. They shouldn’t be there.” — SEC defensive coordinator “Alabama. Maybe I’m old-school, but I don’t believe a three-loss team should have a shot to win a national title. I’ve watched them. They’re not that good this year. I didn’t see enough from them to get this chance.” — Big Ten defensive line coach “Texas Tech. Their D-line is really phenomenal. They can hold their gaps and they let those linebackers play freely. But their offense has had so many opportunities and they really struggle in the red zone. (QB Behren) Morton is talented, but he’s played a ton and some of his decision-making is pretty poor.” — Big 12 offensive coordinator “JMU. They have no business in the Playoff. If you put them in the ACC, they wouldn’t even be .500. Defensively, they’re legitimate, but offensively, they are not good.” — Group of 5 head coach “Oklahoma. The defense is awesome, but I don’t think their offense can piss a drop.” — Group of 5 tight ends coach Which team is the biggest sleeper in the field? • Miami: 21% • Oregon: 17% • Oklahoma: 17% • Alabama: 13% • Ole Miss: 13% • Texas A&M: 13% • Texas Tech: 4% “Oklahoma. I don’t think they have had any movement on their staff or roster. Cohesiveness could play a key role in the Playoff.” — Big Ten defensive backs coach “Alabama is good enough to beat anybody in the field, but can Ty Simpson get his form back from the middle of the season? They don’t run the ball well, but schematically, they do some things to mitigate their running game.” — Group of 5 head coach “Ole Miss. With everything going on with Lane (Kiffin) and around their program, I can see why people might be doubting them, but they played Georgia so tight and could’ve beaten them. I feel like they’re gonna rally around Lane not being there. I think they can get into the semifinals.” — Group of 5 tight ends coach “If Notre Dame was in, I’d have said them, to be honest. I’ll say (Texas) A&M.” — Big Ten running backs coach “Miami. Their D-line is scary, and those guys can change a game. (WR) Malachi Toney is the most dangerous player in college football. I’m not sure how many people actually watch the ACC, but that kid is special. Notre Dame has a really good secondary and they couldn’t touch him, and he kept getting better and better as the season went on. They’ll use him at QB — and he can throw. They’ll line him up outside, in the slot. No one can cover him. He’s fast and super quick. They do so much stuff with him now.” — ACC offensive analyst Is there a path for the Group of 5 teams (Tulane and James Madison) to win a game this year? • No: 88% (my number is 12% higher) • Yes: 12% “I’d like to see it happen personally, because it keeps the hopes alive of like, 50-plus G5 programs, but they just can’t match up physically.” — Big 12 head coach “I think Tulane can pull off the big upset. Everybody’s thrown off by that first score (45-10 in late September). I think they have enough talent to be very competitive, but (Tulane QB Jake) Retzlaff has to be on. They don’t have the depth that Ole Miss has.” — Group of 5 head coach “No way. Tulane’s gonna be beat by 20-plus. JMU may lose by 40. They’re gonna get embarrassed.” — Big Ten running backs coach “The only shot is if someone’s buses break down.” — ACC offensive analyst Who do you think will pull off an upset? • Miami: 58% • No one: 25% • Oklahoma: 13% • Tulane: 4% “Miami over A&M. The Aggies are really good, but both their coordinators might be distracted, and Miami is really talented.” — Group of 5 tight ends coach “Oklahoma over Alabama. OU is playing at home. Their defense is really good and they have a pretty nasty pass rush. (QB John) Mateer hasn’t looked good since he got hurt in September, but he should be better with a few weeks off.” — Big Ten defensive line coach “Miami over A&M. Miami has a lot of talent top to bottom and (QB Carson) Beck has played in a ton of big games.” — Big 12 head coach Which team would you least like to play? • Georgia: 46% • Ohio State: 21% • Indiana: 17% • Miami: 8% • Ole Miss: 4% “Georgia. They can win in a bunch of different ways. They can beat you 40-something to 30-something or win a 13-7 game. There’s not a lot of those types of teams out there.” — Group of 5 head coach “Indiana. Their defense is a problem. Their scheme makes you work a lot harder. They’re very multiple. They’re so good with fire zones, simulated pressures, and do a good job of fitting the run. (Defensive coordinator Bryant) Haines does such a great job of breaking his own tendencies. He does some stuff that is NFL-complicated, and (QB Fernando) Mendoza’s post-snap decision-making is exceptional.” — Big Ten running backs coach “Ole Miss. They have that up-tempo spread. Their offense is a little different. They’re a headache to play against. Their running back (Kewan Lacy) is really good. He can take it the distance, and (Trinidad) Chambliss is a really good college quarterback.” — SEC defensive coordinator How many teams actually have a legitimate shot at being champions? • Three teams: 38% • Four teams: 21% • Six teams: 13% • Five teams: 8% • Seven teams: 8% • Eight teams: 8% • 10 teams: 4% Who do you think is the best coach in the Playoff? • Kirby Smart: 50% • Curt Cignetti: 38% • Dan Lanning: 8% • Joey McGuire: 4% “(Kirby) Smart. He’s won multiple national titles. He learned well from (Nick) Saban. It’s how he recruits and the schemes he has. Georgia’s a machine.” — Group of 5 head coach “Curt Cignetti. It’s really hard to argue against him. He talks so damn much, but give it to him. He’s backed it all up. I’d love to see them win it all.” — Group of 5 head coach “Both Kirby and Cignetti have their teams ready to play, and they have good game plans every week. That’s really all you can control. Kirby’s amazing. But as for who is doing the most with the least, that’s Cignetti.” — Big Ten running backs coach “Cignetti. Indiana’s gone to the Playoff in back-to-back years? Are you friggin’ kidding me? I know guys who used to work there. That place was a football graveyard. That place hadn’t been in the top 10 in like 100 years. (Editor’s note: 57 years.)” — ACC offensive coordinator “Smart. He’s won two national championships. He’s doing a great job of being a head coach and not just being a defensive guy. It feels like he helps their offense out a lot.” — SEC defensive coordinator “Cignetti. When he was talking his s—, I was like, who is this guy? But he backs it up. And when you watch them on both sides, his team is seriously well-coached. I just think he’s the best coach. And I respect his path too; to leave Alabama (as an assistant) to take a small-school job is so impressive.” — Big Ten defensive line coach

depends on what he looks like in the high pressure playoffs. I get wanting to be a 1st round pick, but I would absolutely dread playing for the Raiders Jets, maybe Arizona??? Now New Orleans would be better. I trust Kellen Moore to put Dante in a good position... but hey. but does Dante want to take a chance in another OC's offense that isnt Will Stein in what would be a crucial year next year??

By stalling CFP bracket expansion, Big Ten shows accidental genius

How do College Football Playoff teams compare financially? The gap can be tens of millions. This year’s College Football Playoff reflects the adage that you get what you pay for. The 12-team field includes the four teams with the largest football budgets, the nation’s two highest-paid coaches and three of the four highest-paid general managers. It also sets up a potential quarterfinal matchup where one head coach makes more than his competitor’s entire recent football budget. A few standard financial disclaimers: Different programs run their numbers differently. Budgets change yearly, and some figures are murky or missing, especially regarding private schools and NIL. Even with those caveats, we can still get a broad sense of how the 12 CFP contenders stack up against one another financially. How much CFP teams spend . . . Alabama is the highest spender at $112.2m. Texas A&M ($82.2m) Ohio State ($78.6m) Miami ($78.1m) Georgia ($68.9m) Oklahoma ($65.8m) Indiana ($61.3m) Ole Miss ($57.1m) Oregon ($53.9m) Texas Tech ($34.4m) James Madison ($15.9m) and Tulane ($13m). The first-round Texas A&M-Miami game looks even bigger through this lens, doesn’t it? Texas Tech’s figure is the lowest of the Power 4 teams here but about average in the Big 12; 11 of the conference’s members spent in the $30 million to $40 million range that year. The gap between Alabama and Tulane is large, but maybe not this large. We’ll make our wonky explanation as brief as possible: We’re using the U.S. Department of Education database because it’s the only tool that includes every public and private school (except service academies). However, reporting lags behind, so the most complete numbers are from 2023-24. Alabama’s figures were exceptionally high that year, and Tulane’s figures were exceptionally low. Fortunately, the Green Wave and Crimson Tide have both posted more recent federal reports. Alabama reported $78.5 million in expenses in 2024-25. Tulane reported $22.7 million, which was still behind South Florida ($33.4 million) in the American Conference. The CFP revenue gap . . . Alabama is the highest earner at $138.7m. Georgia ($133.7m) Oklahoma ($124.9m) Texas A&M ($122.4m) Ohio State ($111.6m) Oregon ($109.2m) Miami ($78.1m) Ole Miss ($75.3m) Texas Tech ($62.3m) Indiana ($61.3m) James Madison ($15.9m) and Tulane ($6.9m). Again, Tulane’s figure is abnormally low and ahead of only Kennesaw State ($8.3 million) nationally. But the Green Wave’s most recent report listed football revenue at $24 million. Ohio State’s football income is also much larger ($160.5 million in its latest report). The No. 1 program was Texas at just north of $200 million. I’m sure that’ll make the Longhorns feel great knowing the Aggies are in the first round. Another rivalry aspect: Indiana ranked one spot below Purdue ($61.6 million). Bottom line, as the sec likes to tout "It just costs more"

Here is a cut and paste article I get free with an email address. Not behind their pay wall . . . An especially anxious opening round The initial part of any tournament is emotionally fraught. All that jockeying just to make it into the field. (Plus lobbying, in sports that are especially fraught.) A fired-up home crowd, rewarded by success and desperate for more. (We now have home crowds! Briefly.) The obvious stakes: Crush it, or hit the couch. This year's College Football Playoff starts with especially big feelings all around. Among the power-conference reps, there's no just-happy-to-be-here fan base like last year's Arizona State, Indiana or SMU. At the time, Ryan Day was the lightning rod for all postseason angst. In two of this year's first-round games, the losing team will suffer such psychic damage in front of 10 million pairs of eyeballs that we'll wonder whether it might just be healthier to go hide at the Citrus Bowl instead. (The winning fans, meanwhile, will begrudgingly admit that their unique blend of demons and/or rich-kid problems has been momentarily held at bay.) Imagine being Texas A&M. After reaching 11-0 with a top-two seed in sight and building a 10-3 lead over the nemesis Longhorns, A&M instead melted down, missed on an SEC title shot and is now just a 3.5-point BetMGM favorite against No. 10 Miami. Now imagine losing this game. At home. Perpetually nervous Aggie fans would never trust their team ever again. At the same time, imagine Miami losing. The ACC, blanked in the 12-team Playoff for the second time. No wins in the four-team era after 2019. Granted, that would just add to the ever-simmering panic known as Being The ACC. For the Canes themselves, a road loss to a team with comparable talent would only fuel frustrations about Mario Cristobal's losses to teams with less. The night before that game, either No. 8 Oklahoma (-1.5) beats No. 9 Alabama and we all trade confident fanfic about Kalen DeBoer wanting to leave — or Bama wins, and we just keep doing that anyway. Sure, maybe he does! I haven't had a chance to ask. Regardless, Ralph Russo ranks Nick Saban's successor as the Playoff coach doing the most sweating. (The Sooners are by far the least grumpy team among these four, but you know what'd change that? Becoming the first team to ever lose an FBS Playoff game at home, probably while scoring like 11 points despite having brought in a whole new offense in the offseason.) In the other two first-round games, teams from zillion-dollar conferences host three-score underdogs with seemingly nothing to lose, seeing as the little guys are already set to lose their head coaches as soon as their seasons end. But assuming Ole Miss and Oregon win against Tulane and JMU, we'll endure a repeat of last year's griping about early-round blowouts, this time targeting small conferences personally. Two striving programs, carrying banners for their schools while staring up at behemoths? Intense enough already. But in college football, where every outcome must serve as a referendum on the state of whatever, loud voices will also declare Tulane and JMU responsible for the respectability of every other university outside the Power 4 as well. Lot to ask. Then again, if a big upset happens, we'll have the emotional catastrophe of the season. Especially if it's an Oregon that also got embarrassed in its Playoff debut last year (against Ohio State) and still doesn't have a title, despite all those investments. Or if it's ... good heavens ... an Ole Miss that suddenly looks like it badly needed Lane Kiffin all along. Oh, and in the next round, a No. 4 Texas Tech loss would draw lots of chortling about new-money narratives, No. 1 Indiana risks squandering by far the greatest moment in program history and ... well, whenever No. 3 Georgia or No. 2 Ohio State end up with any record besides 15-0, it's a national emergency. Also, losses by Oregon or Ole Miss would hit almost as hard in that round, since they retroactively wouldn't get any credit for having beaten a G5 in Round 1. No pressure!

Yes, the season is a success. 11- 1 with nail biters vs Penn St. and Iowa, plus closeness vs ewe dub. Exciting football. But we need unmitigated success! SCO 🦆s

Top players on teams OBD will play in 2026 who are off to the NFL - USC - WR Makai is out of eligibility. QB Mavai returns, but Safety Kamair Ramsey and WR Ja'Kobi Lane have declared for the draft. And DC D'Anton Lynn is rumored to be returning to his alma mater, Penn State, in the same role. Nebraska - Big Ten RB of the Year, Emmett Johnson, has declared for the draft. Moore to follow?

I always find the idea of _______ or bust to be an interesting mentality. The season is a book and each game is its own little chapter in that book. If Oregon wins the National Championship this year that makes this an INCREDIBLE year and you put that book on the shelf as a part of a longer Oregon Football history. But if we fail to reach the title game or a semi final game or whatever was this season just a waste? Personally, I have enjoyed the journey so far this year (minus the one bump) and I am excited to see how it all ends, though I would personally love to see it end on a win and there is only one way that happens. Maybe I just don't get on the "bust" mentality. I want a national title as much as any other Duck fan but I know that each season brings its own story and I'm here for that.

My expectation going into this year with no context, was one playoff win. I definitely want to win it all, and think we have a shot, but it really is a crapshoot once you enter the tournament. Context is everything. If we win the first and second round, but then lose by 1 point to an undefeated team that goes on to win at all, it would be tough not to call that a great season. Likewise, winning against JMU, but then losing to Tech would meet my original expectation, but would also be very disappointing. Luck is when preparation meets opportunity…but good opportunity is way better than bad 😆

Eugene is predicted to get FIVE INCHES today, as much rain in a month coming down in one day? It is supposed to let up on Saturday morning...

On one of the pay-sites....someone reported a video made by a CFB content creator where Dak Moore was actually interviewed. He explained the injury, and when run by a doctor who specializes in such injuries--the estimate was given that it would only take about six weeks to heal. And it was noted that we are right at six weeks at the moment!

It was an accurate slip, as it is not a "new" Pac-12, but a "New World" Mountain West. Those teams are targeting an NIL budget of only seven million a year, as it is all they can afford. Whew!

Freudian slip? Or just saying out loud what we here at OBD think! Either way, it's a very funny gaffe. I'm curious to see which of these 8 schools can compete with the likes of Tulane, or mighty JMU.

Appreciate you and all of the team members who work together to provide this outstanding resource! Excited to be here for another Natty Run! Or swim, as it may be Saturday...

Didn't realize Kirby Moore was Kellen's brother. New Washington State coach makes 'Mountain West' blunder He may be right about where he is coaching sooner rather than later.

I agree Darren. "Four more" should be the mantra now. Agreed, JMU should be Liberty 2.0. TT, they are like sc, Iowa, ewe dub. Games we shouldn't lose and so far Dan has held serve since season 2. Semi, I hope it is Cig and frigid inside Mercedes Benz stadium for the serving of revenge. Natty, let someone else leave in the bride's maid outfit, my closet is full enough.

On this week's episode of Talkin' Ducks, Jordan Kent, Aaron Fentress, Anthony Newman, and George Wrighster preview Oregon's first-round playoff matchup again.

Darren, for Happy to be HappyToBeADuck, the thought that OBD's don't win their first Natty has not entered my mind! This old Duck is a homer whose 30,000 foot view comes thru green and yellow colored glasses. Coupled with Duck bias filled to the brim with confidence for 4 more CFP victories. First Round Game: I will be didappointed if the Ducks dont cover the spread, Dante plays past the first 2nd half Duck possession and the #3's and #4's don't get significant playing time. Second Round Game: I will be disappointed if the Duck D allows TT 17 points. DL has plenty of bulletin board material for both sides of the ball to be motivated. Semifinals: If OU or Bama get past IU in their second round game, I will be disappointed. This Duck fan wants a rematch with IU and a chance to wipe that smirk off Cignettis face. (He has earned the right to wear that smirk. Now OBD's need to earn the right to wipe that smirk off into the off srason.) Natty: Whether it's Georgia or tOSU in the title game it matters not. The last time we faced either of these teams they wiped the field clean with the Ducks. That is enoigh reason for any team. End Result: Oregon Ducks National Chsmpions!

The next atmospheric river has now arrived. We're finally getting some snow in the cascades. Check out Tripcheck, Though a few cameras are out.

Good news to see DT Immanuel Bush probable. He is JMU’s 348 lb DT and second strongest player on the team. While he won’t make a ton of sacks or TFLs , he does command 2 blockers every play which frees up the other defenders to be freed up and cause problems.

It is my belief that if this season is to be considered a “success,” the Ducks must at least advance to the CFP semifinals. Here are my thoughts on all potential outcomes: A First-Round Loss: The only way the Ducks could ... Semifinals or Bust for the Ducks

And Jordon Davison lined up in the backfield and Dak Moore just on the field as well. Though in truth I think Johnson will be a bigger threat next year than Harrison just because he'll be more polished. But the future is absolutely bright at Oregon.

Imagine red zone passing downs with Gatlin Bair heading for one corner of the end zone and Kendre Harrison the other.

I'm moved.

I'm not surprised. He's pretty good and works hard... But pretty good doesn't get you on the field with the Ducks. He got knocked out of the rotation this year by freshman and transfers. He got back in rotation because of injuries. And next year he'll probably be out of the rotation by some up and coming redshirts and true freshman. All the power to him in finding a place to play. He's been a benefit to the Ducks for sure and stepped up when his number was called.