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David Marsh

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Everything posted by David Marsh

  1. You can actually make an argument that it was for less money. Sure the payout per school is about the same as it is now EXCEPT the Big-12 added a net of +2 schools to the conference. They lost their two big money makers and to make up the difference they went quantity to try and create additional content and, though they will resent this comment, filler programing. Cincinnati v UCF probably won't be a bad game to watch, but it isn't going to draw anywhere near the eyeballs that Oklahoma or Texas v anyone (let alone the Red River Shootout itself). Will some of those programs grow and develop fanbases? Yes, of course they will but let's get real here. Cincinnati will always be in Ohio State's shadow and there is nothing that will ever change that. UCF has had a run of success in the G5 level of play but they are never going to break into Florida's top programs of Florida, Florida State and Miami. Same goes for Houston in Texas. BYU also has a ceiling as it is a private school. BYU probably helped move the needle a bit for the Big-12 but BYU's fan base probably isn't going to grow leaps and bounds from what it is now and it is a far cry from what the Big-12 lost in Texas and Oklahoma. They are a band-aid for what they lost. Now, I'm also under no illusions that if the Pac-12 does add SMU and SDSU that that is also a band aid because those programs won't make up for what was lost with the LA Schools. Though I do feel SDSU could probably grow a fan base better than the rest of the schools listed. They are not in LA but southern California and San Diego is a market that college football could really grow into. SMU has a good donor fan-base that will ensure they grow though I don't expect them to ever be as big of a brand as Texas or Texas A&M in the Texas market.
  2. Yeah this wasn't surprising to anyone who seems to be in the loop. The media deal is fascinating aspect of sports fandom these days. I mean honestly... Did anyone care about what happened a decade ago with these media deals? No. But now fans are clamoring to know what's in the pac-12 media deal. How much will it be? Does it come with expansion? And everything we have discussed to no end. But from a business standpoint... They are on their own time table, one not dictated by what the fans want. There will be a deal. We'll find out at some point before the current one expires. I know I say all of this knowing full well I have participated in countless conversations about this topic. More than anything else I just want to point out this strange obession we have right now with the back room dealings of something as mundane as determining what channel or service games will play on. This is something just so strange.
  3. I've been inside though not for a game. It's an incredible space. But I'm not sure it is quite up to the safety regulations anymore. It would have been great if Matt court created a pit in honor of Mac but that doesn't help in creating a multi functional space which Matt and other modern arenas are.
  4. But sometines click bait gives us something to talk about on these long summer days with basically no football news.
  5. I'll be honest... A list of 14 is just kinda silly. That's way too many. I'd say 5 on that list is probably reasonable. 1. Ohio State - they've owned this rivalry but Oregon scoring a win in the shoe was a big igniter for something that was really one-way. We're the up and comer against the blue blood. 2. Wisconsin - last two meetings have been at the Rose Bowl and both Oregon wins came by one score. 3. Michigan State - not as flashy but this one feels like it has some legs. 2014 was a huge win for Oregon and 2015 was a near loss for Oregon mostly due to Vernon Adam's finger. 2018 was a one point victory for the Ducks in a 7-6 win in possibly the most boring game I've ever watched. 4. Auburn - two duck losses but those games were darn close and I think we all wouldn't mind another game. 5. Boise State - this one shouldn't be here but some how Oregon hasn't beaten BSU??? Need to fix that. Honorable mention... FSU. No real rivalry is possible with one game. But Oregon and FSU fans kinda hate each other and that one game was the first college football playoff game and had two Heisman winners. But one game doesn't make a rivalry but if Oregon were to play a couple more against FSU they'll shoot right up that list. I'll be honest OCC rivals are truly rare in college football. Rivalries take time to develop. I'd say Oregon and Utah have a bit of a rivalry now but that's taken over ten years and some spoiled seasons on both sides to create. I guess come next year we have a clear No. 1 and 2 of OOC rivals... USC and UCLA!!! But that's due to them leaving a conference and not being truly OOC rivals until they leave the conference..
  6. I'll pass... I'll be honest the most interesting part of the event is when the press is asking questions of the coaches and players. But instead we get the players and coaches talking to the pac-12 media people and frankly their questions are just terrible. They don't show the decent media interactions, just the really boring ones.
  7. Not going to try and hype up our OOC schedule. It's pretty weak outside of Texas Tech which is kinda the equivalent of scheduling another good Washington State team (not saying this year's WSU team is going to be good but you should get the idea... Dangerous if you don't take care of business as a more talented team). But the pac-12 conference slate is pretty brutal and I'd be hard pressed to find a way to make it much more difficult, being as we can't play both LA schools in a given year. Maybe exchange Colorado for Arizona would make it more difficult. But otherwise you can't have a much more difficult schedule in the PAC. Oregon plays Washington, USC, Oregon state and Utah. With Oregon those are probably the top 5 teams out west. But more east.coadt bias... Do we even play football this far west?
  8. The thing is that the Ducks could actually go 12-0! I think the defense is going to be a whole lot better than last season and if we keep Nix healthy the offense is going to roll. The Washington loss was really on an injured Nix and a defense that was awful. The Oregon state loss probably wouldn't have happened if Nix was healthy as well. The reality of the season is that there will be a game or two that the offense will have to win it and carry the game and there will probably atleast one game where it will be on the defense to get the stops and win the game. Is this team that complete? Probably not but it's possible, they have the talent to do it.
  9. no. 2 in the PAC would be reasonable. I'd probably put Utah at No. 1. I think Oregon can take the PAC this year defensively if they show the improvement they flashed in the spring game. The majority of the major weaknesses that have plagued this defense sense 2020 season were gone. Oregon had the athletes and Lanning has the scheme... Just need those two get in sync. I think Oregon's offense will be as good or better next year. Especially if we don't run the quarterback out of an empty set!!!
  10. Other thing that comes to mind here... To determine if a coach is in the hot seat or not it all comes down to the standards and desires the University has for their football program. For Oregon State the yearly goal is to make a bowl game with aspirations of potentially playing in a good bowl game and making the conference championship game as a crazy good year. The CFP doesn't factor into it. For the Ducks on the other hand... Getting to the conference championship game is kinda the baseline. Many see last year's season as a failure because we didn't make it in Lanning's first year and we were darn close. Oregon's aspirations for any reason is making the playoff. If you were to put Jonathan Smith to Oregon's standards of course he'd have some degree of heat in his seat but he doesn't have to meet the same goals as Lanning does. That's one of the reasons why I also feel like this type of hot seat article is a bit silly. They rarely take into consideration what each program's goals are to determine the hot seat degree.
  11. I believe in the BCS and CFP eras there have only been three teams to reach the national championship game without a proper blue chip ratio. Oregon 2010-11 Oregon 2014-15 TCU 2022 And all three games were losses.. Yes, Oregon probably could have should have won the first one in that list it was close and there were some mind boggling awful calls (outside of the Dyer was down fiasco). 2014-15 Oregon was kinda in it for a half but the wheels fell off. The cupboard of talent was bare at that point and there just wasn't enough talent left on the roster. I don't know if we could have taken Ohio State if we had all our injured players or not at that point but we absolutely couldn't with the talent that we had left. Then last year's game TCU showed they weren't even in the same league as Georgia. They didn't have anywhere near the talent to compete, especially for a national championship. That was a pretty embarrassing game. So yes... Give us the 4 and 5 stars every day because that will enable us to have the roster to compete.
  12. I give Wilcox two more seasons if he doesn't boost Cal's on field performance. Only because Cal really doesn't seem to care too much about football or athletics too much on the whole. Cal was hovering near the bottom last season and if it wasn't for Colorado and Stanford (both which had coaching changes for different reasons) Cal was AT the bottom. I just looked up the basics on Wilcox's contract and it goes through 2027. So in two seasons it will be at the end of 2024-2025 and there won't be much left on his contract to buyout so I can see them making a move then if his results haven't improved. Edit... that contract that ends in 2027 was an extension that was signed last season. So, yeah, Cal isn't moving on Wilcox any time soon. He is basically in the same place as Kelly is at UCLA. Cal actually made money from its athletics last year so I doubt they want to saddle themselves with a big bill this quickly after a contract exertion. His seat is cool.
  13. I hate USC as much as any other Duck fan... And I think their punishment was fine. But there should be a standard. The only reason why their punishment is disproportionate is because they keep letting everyone else off easy by comparison. Lots of schools have learned to punish themselves early before the NCAA is even started the investigation and the NCAA will often go... "That's good enough... Good on you to punish yourself" where that's not how this should work at all. Self punishment should not be considered apart of the NCAA punishment... If a university wants to punish their programs for acting badly they should do that but it shouldn't make a later punishment lesser.
  14. Nice numbers here Jon. Media markets are all wishful thinking in a lot of ways. I think SMU and SDSU would make fine additions but they should get an equal payout for a few years. I say they'll need five years to adjust to the power five and cultivate their fan bases. Both are serious about expanding their brands and given time they'll be good additions but they aren't really instant money.
  15. Only one coach in the PAC even has a warm to hot seat... Justin Wilcox at Cal. New coaches.... ASU, Colorado and Stanford can't have any sort of hot seat because they're new. All untouchable, they'll have at least two years to right the ship. Coaches entering year two... Oregon and Washington and USC (I suppose well count them). Too much new stuff and successful first season basically untouchable. Chip Kelly's contract got renewed after the 2021 season and his buyout is too much for UCLA to handle so it doesn't matter how he does. Jedd Fisch is building a program and is doing an incredible job. He has one of the hardest jobs in the conference rebuilding Arizona from the train wreck of was in. No one at Zona is looking at getting rid of him. Dickart at WSU might have a little heat but WSU's fiances are such that they aren't firing a head football coach for a few years. They opted to officially make him HC last year (he was interm the year before) so you can throw him in the 2nd year head coach group for all intensive purposes. Jonathan Smith is untouchable right now. Beaver fans would absolutely lose it, and rightfully so, if he was even doubted by the athletic department and they'd blame the athletic department long before they blame Smith for a down season. The beavers are going bowling again next year. And let's get real... Utah isnt firing Whittingham no matter what. He is untouchable. They stuck with him through the power five transition thry aren't touching him after two conference titles. So that leaves Cal and Wilcox... He's been there long enough there should be results but hasn't produced any. So his stat is heating up but Cal will probably give him two more seasons. This one and the next and see if he produces. So... I guess I write a response article to how their article was pointless. No one is on a true hot seat in the PAC this year.
  16. I know many would poo-poo the severity of the sanctions Oregon received but they really did hurt recruiting. Loss of scholarships hurt... But what really hurt was loss of official visits. Oregon had always been dependant on official visits where they can get kids on campus to see the facilities. So the sanctions took the 35 official visits (laughably small by today's rules that allow something like 70 official visits) and reduced Oregon's officials down to like 27 if I recall. That's barely enough for one per commit. That really hurt Oregon's recruiting and it changed the mentality from giving official visits out to long shots that may be interested to really only giving official visits to sure fire commits. The recruiting classes suffered a bit. It's amazing how small things like that can change everything.
  17. Need a top ten finish is the best standard to go on. A couple five stars would be amazing! A top 5 finish would be nice but the key is at least top ten and make a solid use of the transfer portal. The portal has its own rankings separate from the traditional recruiting ones and there doesn't seem to be a composite that integrates both yet. I'd also say the transfer portal rankings out there right now seem super subjective. Programs with the most hype seem to do the best.
  18. Volunteers avoid bowl ban as NCAA finds over 200 violations - ESPN WWW.ESPN.COM Tennessee avoided a bowl ban but has been fined more than $8 million by the NCAA Division I Committee... Tennessee will finally be punished for McDonald's bags of cash to recruits. For the record this would still be illegal under today's rules as well, as this was coaches giving money directly to recruits. And even if these had been players on the roster at the time it would have been illegal regardless because at the very core of the matter here is that an institution and entities attached with an institution, namely anyone on the institution's payroll, cannot pay players. So yeah this is a a big fine and the article says it equates to a bowl ban financially and Tenn has self imposed some scholarship reductions. And for this "good behavior" it still really looks like Tennessee got off easy. We all know what happened to USC when they were hit with the NCAA's ban hammer over paying players. And we can all imagine what would have happened if this was Oregon or some other pac-12 school that was caught doing this. The ASU case for on campus visits, paid for my the previous coaching staff, during the 2020 season is still floating around. So we'll see eventually how ASU is treated by the NCAA..
  19. I'd say colt was as much of a Kelly problem as a Helfrich problem. Lyerla fell apart at the start of the 2013 season... He played like one game. Sure Helfrich was the HC by this point but Kelly was the HC for the previous years with Lyerla. Those problems didn't come out of no where. It was a failure of the entire coaching staff in large part. Also... Special teams getting worse may have been the case but the special teams coach didn't change from the bellotti era. This was more a matter of the entire coaching staff having a bit of a drop off. Frost was also the one who did the majority of the play calling though Helfrich could give his input but he wasn't doing all the play calling. Then in 2016 Lubrick became the OV and did the play calling. Also Kelly's teams were pretty penalty heavy. They shouldn't have been that high but most of the penalties were really false starts that the coaches didn't mind because the offense gobbled up a lot of yards and could negate penalties. The wheels did fall off a bit during the Helfrich era but he really wasn't given any time to write the ship. He had a winning record and if it was the 2000's he would have been retained because his record was quite positive. If he wanted another HC job he would have gotten one but he has preferred his quite nice semi retirement.
  20. I love the Lanning offense... It's innovative and gets the job done with a mixture of tempos. But I still really really miss the blur offense. I would say the current offense is more reliable because even if it's a three and out at least they can take time off the clock. The blur's greatest weakness was a three and out took maybe a minute off the clock and then the defense had to get back on the field for probably a long drive.
  21. Might start sneaky good because everyone might sleep on it but then it's going to be a terror.
  22. I love the way he just holds the edge and holds the contain until he knows he can make a move. I know those were highlights so he doesn't play that well every play but still great instincts. He didn't just blindly rush which I think is a big deal. Holding contain on the edge means that plays just can't go to his side which means the rest of the team knows where the play is probably going. Also you get a real sense that he knows he can beat his man on any given down. So him holding contain isn't him being contained but doing his job. Because once you know he doesn't need to hold his contain anymore he springs free and is going to party in the backfield.
  23. In 2015 (when Petersen went to UW) we were coming off a National Championship appearance. Sark went from UW to USC and UW grabbed Petersen. Oregon had no interest because Helfrich was our guy at the time. Then there was some potential interest after Cristobal left but Petersen really seems done with College Football because of the recruiting side of things. He opted to retire from Washington, he was not fired. There may have been some interest back in 2012-2013 after Kelly but the Oregon tradition at the time was promote from within... Beyond that Petersen's offensive style was prostyle and Oregon made its name by being a spread offense with high tempo. The Oregon brand at the time needed to keep the Kelly offense so Helfrich was really the guy. Timing never worked out for Oregon and Petersen.
  24. Something I read said that it looks like ESPN will be doing at least some production. So it's probably just a platform. On the PAC side of things oddly enough a big thing (that is also making everything more complicated) is that we actually have a production capacity. Larry Scott created the pac-12 network in what was a massive folly... But it's built and now an asset if it's leveraged correctly. CW, Amazon, Apple and any other streaming platforms doesn't have the production... But the pac-12 can provide that but that comes at a cost to the streamer which they know they must incurr.
  25. And when the PAC gets a better contract than the big-12 and streaming is THE thing... Yeah we'll laugh at them all the more. The big-12 took an awful but fast deal and will be hurting without their big two schools. We'll see how things change in 2024.
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