David Marsh

Prestige is also subjective. I don't see the prestige of going to the B1G and I feel the PAC has its own prestige. Though some people just want to join the B1G to be relevant which is the prestige argument... It varies from person to person. A lot of those pundits push the B1G and tre SEC for the prestige.. or at least their perception of prestige. Oregon just needs to win a national championship and get them all to shut up a bit. The prestige argument can be debated... The money argument really can't, once we get actual numbers in a few years, because UCLA (out test case) will either make money or they won't (probably won't) but saying they are in aore prestigious conference... That can be argued (though I disagree).

The only argument I feel that holds water for Oregon and Washington to join the B1G and leave the Pac is for the prestige. This assumes that the B1G is a more prestigious conference with better competition. If that is the line of reasoning someone wants to believe then sure, by that logic Oregon and Washington should join the B1G. But this argument that teams need to be good to get into the B1G is laughable because how many division (not conference, division) titles have Rutgers and Maryland won since they joined the B1G? How many did they win in their previous conferences? I don't know the answer to that second question but I am pretty sure very few. In the same vein since 2010 guess how many Pac-12 Championships have USC and UCLA won combined? It's ONE! Same time frame Oregon has won FIVE (2010 was in the Pac-10). Washington has won two. The strength of athletic programs doesn't matter to conference expansion. Thanks for the article post Jon.

There aren't really any other viable options so it really is all about trying to find the next best. If the LA schools had stuck around I do think SDSU and SMU would have been targets for expansion regardless. SDSU feels like a no brainer because adding them really was a no brainer. I do feel like SMU is a steal the more I keep learning about them. They have a big donor base and they are serious about raising their athletic standard. Given 3-5 years they should be in the middle of the Pac in football.

I could see Moga moving up in the rankings before signing day. For a lot of Oregon's 3-star recruits right now I can see them moving up in the rankings as well. I feel this staff has done a good job getting in on some talent early, when they are lower ranked, and then the talent will shoot up as the season comes around. That will also help our end rankings.

It would be funny if they can't and the new Pac deal turns out to be more robust and able to pay out. Again I think it would be hillarious if the LA schools find themselves deeper into the red by moving to the B1G and the Pac finds itself making significantly more money on the whole.

Gotta have a ton of kickers. Sadly it seems like kickers are far more volitile when it comes to recruitment than other positions.

It will be worth watching those numbers this year... it is on a new platform and people need to learn where to find the game as well. Traditional TV is still going to get more eyeballs but it is only a matter of time until that starts to change. Those Amazon numbers should increase year-on-year as more people get more comfortable with streaming. As Jon Joseph keeps on saying and I agree with him.... streaming is the future. So if this rumored deal comes together it will put the Pac ahead of all the other conferences a full media cycle earlier. Next media rights cycle starting around 2030 will include streaming platforms and if the Pac can lock those down early that will make the next media rights cycle a whole lot easier. I think in large part what has made this media rights negotiation take so long has been because the Pac has had to get more creative in part because FOX bought into the B1G and really doesn't have a lot of money left over for other conferences. ESPN filled up on the SEC and doesn't really want to pay top dollar on the Pac. Both FOX and ESPN (the big two sports casters) are jumping up and down with joy because the former ACC commissioner is potentially worse than Larry Scott because they have the ACC locked in for about another ten years with a crappy media deal. And the Big-12 has been showing off for a while how great and smart they are with their ~30 million dollar per school deal but in reality that was an easy media rights deal. They basically sold away everything they could and expanded the conference to every G5 school that has been remotely decent in football in the past decade and FOX and ESPN basically renewed their deal. The Big-12's expansion in order to maintain this number lost their two biggest members in Oklahoma and Texas and then they had to add 4 members to try and make up for that... BYU, Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati. I would imagine that their media rights deal would have been better with Oklahoma and Texas without needing to expand. So with all this chaos the Pac has had to get creative and hopefully they can pull it off. They probably could get a status quo deal that will keep them around where the Big-12's deal is at but getting creative could see a pay bump even if it would take a year or so.

No one has even talked about trying to get Netflix in on sports casting. They are in a similar position to the rest of these in that they don't have any in house sports production capability but the Pac-12 Network has that. Amazon Prime isn't that surprising as its bundled in with the Prime sub and a ton of people have that.

This list of NIL groups is really interesting to see just where the top 20 NIL groups are located and who they support. Some quick highlights... Oregon comes in at No.3 with Division Street, not really a big surprise but maybe a bit of a surprise that we are ahead of USC and are actually one of the most comprehensive programs in the entire country. Division Street is probably one of the quietest NIL groups of the lot as well. USC comes in at No. 7 (though they will be going to the B1G soon) Washington comes in at No. 15. Which puts them at the 2nd highest in the Pac (or 3rd if you count USC), so I don't know what their fan base is complaining about. Well, their Huskies they believe the entire sports world is run by Oregon and is out to get them. I wish that were true but it isn't. SMU comes in at No. 20. Which bodes well for the Pac if they do end up joining the conference. They have a strong support base and in a P5 conference they will really be able to leverage that. I believe SMU is the only current G5 school on that list so this is even more support for them to join the conference. Also they may be the No. 3 school in the State of Texas (both Texas and Texas Tech are ahead of them) but they are ahead of TCU and Baylor that's fore sure. On3's top 20 most ambitious NIL collectives - On3 WWW.ON3.COM Two years in, here are On3’s rankings of the top 20 most ambitious NIL collectives. These all play a unique role in helping to shape...

One of those streaming platforms could be ESPN's streaming service. Difficult to say as we don't actually know what is in the deal because it's not public. However, if the numbers are supposed to be higher than the expected 30million then those streaming platforms would have to be bigger platforms that already have decent subscriber bases. As for your second point... this only helps those who have a VPN service but if you connect your VPN to a country outside of the US, I typically use the UK, you can go to youtube and there is a Pac-12 International stream. I watched the Spring Game this way and it was as good as if I still had Comcast. If you don't have a VPN or don't feel tech savvy enough to make this work then anyone can feel free to ignore this but it might help someone.

And if this is true... Ohhhh... It will be sooooooo sooooo soooo wonderful. Mostly because it would make USC and especially UCLA feel the hurt soooo much worse. This week I did write an article on how I'm not convinced that Oregon should make a run for the B1G and if this turns out to be true then all the more reason to stay. More money and no real additional travel costs. That's a big win. Should Oregon Move to the B1G? I'm Not Convinced FISHDUCK.COM There are a lot of people talking about how getting into the B1G is a must for the Ducks to not be left behind...

I feel the Big-12 is probably pretty mediocre to be honest.. I mean Oklahoma has held that conference up. Sure, TCU reaching the national championship game but they didn't look like they belonged in that game by a long shot. I think the Pac-12 has a pretty strong top... Oregon, Utah, Washington, USC. A solid middle ... Oregon State, UCLA, Washington State But a horrendus bottom (last year in particular)... Arizona (on the rise), Arizona State (new HC), Stanford (new HC), Colorado (new HC), and Cal (we'll see) So ... yeah I guess the bottom half based on last year was pretty awful. But let's get real ASU and Arizona should be turning their programs around. Jedd Fisch at Arizona I am actually pretty high on for them, this isn't an easy program to get going and he is making incremental accomplishments. The past two years Fisch has the wild cats fighting through every single quarter. I think Dilly will doe a lot for ASU but that program is also a mess. Sanders will probably have Colorado fairly decent and then leave for somewhere in Florida. David Shaw at Stanford hit a huge wall in the challenges of the ages of NIL and the transfer portal. Stanford is and will always be a net giver to the portal because of their academic standards when it comes to transfers into the program. So the new head coach is killing it on the recruiting trail so far and maybe Stanford can get back to being relevant. Cal... oddly enough Cal's athletic department turned a profit last year but there just isn't a whole lot of focus on the athletic side of things at Cal. Wilcox needs to make some bigger assistant hires. He has gone with safe hires that he knows and those haven't worked out for him so far. But Cal could and should be better. I did a ton of power rankings last year during the season... I'll probably do it again this season.

The equipment side of things would be insane. I would imagine they may need to get a warehouse of storage location in B1G territory to store some stuff. The jersies themselves aren't a big deal but all that other fear is too much to fly. Regardless.. factor that into the additional costs.

All parties involved would want to piggy back on each other. I am confident that those would develop quickly. Also... the Pac-12 Network isn't terribly broad in its availability but you see their footage and them use footage from other channels all the time right now. I think you are touching on a major concern but I do think that it will get sorted out fairly easily.

Last year ESPN's College Game Day came to Eugene for the Oregon-UCLA game. The game itself was broadcast on FOX. In the end I don't think where the game is presented matters all that much. Highlights are going to make it to the traditional broadcasting platforms regardless. I also think that there will be plenty of Pac games on a more traditional platform of TV with the new media deal. The biggest questions have been about how can the conference leverage the Pac-12 network to get more value out of it. It has one big thing going for it in terms of flexibility and that is it is a full media company in that it has all the staffing that is Pac. This has certainly hurt the network in trying to generate more revenue but will help potentially leverage it into a streaming platform because the one thing those platforms don't have is production of sports content in house. I think Oregon will still find its way onto ABC or ESPN regularly enough with the new media deal. In the past three years Oregon has only been on the Pac-12 networks of less than 2 games per year (typically our game against an FCS opponent is on the Pac-12 and maybe another game and that's it). So for Oregon there will be PLENTY of national recognition if they play well.

I do feel you are onto something here. Texas and Oklahoma will see increased travel costs but not to the same extent due to the geography. Put it this way, Texas and Oklahoma both touch other states that contain SEC schools within them. California doesn't touch another B1G state. So when thinking about the extra revenue for Texas and Oklahoma they will both see the actual benefit of that revenue because their travel costs will in general not shoot through the roof. The LA schools have also been suffering from not being elite in football for ages. UCLA can't fill the Rose Bowl for top 25 match-ups. USC got a shot of life in them last year with Riley as their head coach and doing better on the field but will that momentum continue in the B1G? Also... those fan bases really won't be able to travel too much to B1G country. Sure they might a bit to the big games like Ohio State, or Michigan or Penn State... but they won't travel to Rutgers. Texas hasn't been a big power in almost two decades and the fan base is hungry to be relevant again. Oklahoma has been the run of the Big-12 for years and it is unlikely they will have the run of the SEC. Fan bases may love the extra money for their school but probably not the lack of conference championships.

But the other major factor there is that all those schools you listed didn't have to take on anywhere near the same amount of travel burden. Nebraska added quite a lot of travel but they are still a whole lot closer to the heart of the B1G than the L.A. schools. Again... its about a four-five hour flight from LA to Lincoln, Nebraska. So let's just say Oregon gets a reduced payout of lets say... 45 million a year. Sure that would be more than what will probably be the new Pac media contract but probably no where near enough to coverage the added travel burden. Also 7 years would probably be far too long for Oregon and Washington to take a reduced share with this additional burden. Sure, going into the red for a few years knowing that a big payout is coming is completely doable but again, I'm not convinced there would be a big enough payout.

And as a high school social studies teacher we are certainly not known for our math skills... or engineering skills but that is a story for another time. Now there are other factors at play when it comes to revenue and UCLA joining the B1G that we will have to watch for, but from a sheer media rights perspective it doesn't make sense to me.

Here are some topics that I have seen brought up on the FishDuck Forum in other posts that I would like to quickly address that my article hinted at but perhaps did not explicitly address and I didn’t want to do a full rewrite. The quotations are paraphrases… “The Ducks should get to the B1G even if it comes at a reduced payout” No, this doesn’t pencil with my basic grasp of math. Right now Oregon is making around 30 million dollars in media revenue. Entering the B1G at a reduced rate, lets say at half is going to be about 30 million dollars (I’m rounding but it honestly doesn’t matter). This isn’t status quo upon joining in this circumstance but actually a significant pay CUT because now Oregon would have to travel a lot and any profit they were making is going to get reduced if not fully wiped out. It is even unclear right now if a full cut of the B1G media revenue will help Oregon as we have to wait and see if it will even help UCLA in a significant way. “Oregon would eventually receive a full share of the B1G media revenue” Sure… that would be part of the deal but unless FOX and NBC are willing to proportionally add enough money for B1G expansion to give Oregon and Washington for that matter a proportional share they will have to pay out more money to make that possible. Oregon does have a big fanbase but it is not a very easy fan base to track because its national or global in some cases, unlike USC or UCLA which they are only really counting as a regional fanbase in the L.A. market. The reality is that everyone in the B1G would probably receive a smaller slice of the pie for the addition of Oregon and Washington and that will probably be the biggest block to the notion of adding either to the B1G than anything else.

That's why we have to watch the revenue and expense numbers from UCLA every year starting in 2024. In UCLA'S first year i doubt it'd put them in the black for the year. When the numbers increase will that push UCLA into the black or keep them in the red still? I honestly don't have an answer and there are soany other factors at play that all we can really do is watch.

Lanning in year one really made an effort to take the roster he was given and bring in some transfers to help bloster it but he didn't gut the roster, like what we have seen in Colorado or USC. He took the year to figure out what he had and to go with it. Obviously he didn't have the right players so it didn't work great. And a big reason for failed pass rush last year was Oregon had a soft underbelly where qbs could almost always just dump the ball off for some quick yards and avoid the rush. Getting that secondary set up and more importantly the linebackers to cover those underneath routes will help the pass rush immensely. It also doesn't hurt if there are some moster pass rushers as well.

It depends on the post. I have read some that are incredibly set on Oregon leaving the PAC as soon as possible, ideally for the B1G. Other posts are more stay in the PAC. It's a mixed bag for sure. By the way... Tomorrow I have an article coming up on FishDuck on this issue of should Oregon stay or go. So stay tuned!

Ha, I love it. I see a fellow business and legal consultant offering a different perspective here! I'm sorry, but it just isn't going to work. Every position is a position of need two years out, and there are many prospects left. For the players that have committed elsewhere already- that's on the Huskies. In the age of the transfer portal you really do pursue the best players in the positions of need on the recruiting trail, knowing if you come up short you can shop the portal. But the lifeblood of programs is still recruiting high school players. No program has yet proven that they can live entirely from the portal. Portal players are also starting to cost more NIL than your prep recruits because they are proven. Washington fans are lying to themselves right now.

I see it part of a greater Lanning offensive philosophy. If you watch the pacing of Duck games last year there were really three phases to the game. Phase 1 - getting comfortable and getting early points. Phase 2 - the crazy middle 8. Phase 3 - burn the clock and win the game. Here's my article on the middle eight. Dan Lanning is Embracing the Middle Eight Theory FISHDUCK.COM Football is a sport of bizarre statistics that mostly seem irrelevant, but if you dive into them, they tell a greater... and here is Charles' article on Lanning burning clock. Is Lanning's New Game-Plan...Chip Kelly 2.0? FISHDUCK.COM Oregon just beat the master, and his offense. How can you say the Ducks are CK 2.0? This is a natural...

Then let us hope that SC is out of the running for the champ game this year so they can just sit miserably watching the rest of the PAC play.