David Marsh

I do feel you are onto something here. Texas and Oklahoma will see increased travel costs but not to the same extent due to the geography. Put it this way, Texas and Oklahoma both touch other states that contain SEC schools within them. California doesn't touch another B1G state. So when thinking about the extra revenue for Texas and Oklahoma they will both see the actual benefit of that revenue because their travel costs will in general not shoot through the roof. The LA schools have also been suffering from not being elite in football for ages. UCLA can't fill the Rose Bowl for top 25 match-ups. USC got a shot of life in them last year with Riley as their head coach and doing better on the field but will that momentum continue in the B1G? Also... those fan bases really won't be able to travel too much to B1G country. Sure they might a bit to the big games like Ohio State, or Michigan or Penn State... but they won't travel to Rutgers. Texas hasn't been a big power in almost two decades and the fan base is hungry to be relevant again. Oklahoma has been the run of the Big-12 for years and it is unlikely they will have the run of the SEC. Fan bases may love the extra money for their school but probably not the lack of conference championships.

But the other major factor there is that all those schools you listed didn't have to take on anywhere near the same amount of travel burden. Nebraska added quite a lot of travel but they are still a whole lot closer to the heart of the B1G than the L.A. schools. Again... its about a four-five hour flight from LA to Lincoln, Nebraska. So let's just say Oregon gets a reduced payout of lets say... 45 million a year. Sure that would be more than what will probably be the new Pac media contract but probably no where near enough to coverage the added travel burden. Also 7 years would probably be far too long for Oregon and Washington to take a reduced share with this additional burden. Sure, going into the red for a few years knowing that a big payout is coming is completely doable but again, I'm not convinced there would be a big enough payout.

And as a high school social studies teacher we are certainly not known for our math skills... or engineering skills but that is a story for another time. Now there are other factors at play when it comes to revenue and UCLA joining the B1G that we will have to watch for, but from a sheer media rights perspective it doesn't make sense to me.

Here are some topics that I have seen brought up on the FishDuck Forum in other posts that I would like to quickly address that my article hinted at but perhaps did not explicitly address and I didn’t want to do a full rewrite. The quotations are paraphrases… “The Ducks should get to the B1G even if it comes at a reduced payout” No, this doesn’t pencil with my basic grasp of math. Right now Oregon is making around 30 million dollars in media revenue. Entering the B1G at a reduced rate, lets say at half is going to be about 30 million dollars (I’m rounding but it honestly doesn’t matter). This isn’t status quo upon joining in this circumstance but actually a significant pay CUT because now Oregon would have to travel a lot and any profit they were making is going to get reduced if not fully wiped out. It is even unclear right now if a full cut of the B1G media revenue will help Oregon as we have to wait and see if it will even help UCLA in a significant way. “Oregon would eventually receive a full share of the B1G media revenue” Sure… that would be part of the deal but unless FOX and NBC are willing to proportionally add enough money for B1G expansion to give Oregon and Washington for that matter a proportional share they will have to pay out more money to make that possible. Oregon does have a big fanbase but it is not a very easy fan base to track because its national or global in some cases, unlike USC or UCLA which they are only really counting as a regional fanbase in the L.A. market. The reality is that everyone in the B1G would probably receive a smaller slice of the pie for the addition of Oregon and Washington and that will probably be the biggest block to the notion of adding either to the B1G than anything else.

That's why we have to watch the revenue and expense numbers from UCLA every year starting in 2024. In UCLA'S first year i doubt it'd put them in the black for the year. When the numbers increase will that push UCLA into the black or keep them in the red still? I honestly don't have an answer and there are soany other factors at play that all we can really do is watch.

Lanning in year one really made an effort to take the roster he was given and bring in some transfers to help bloster it but he didn't gut the roster, like what we have seen in Colorado or USC. He took the year to figure out what he had and to go with it. Obviously he didn't have the right players so it didn't work great. And a big reason for failed pass rush last year was Oregon had a soft underbelly where qbs could almost always just dump the ball off for some quick yards and avoid the rush. Getting that secondary set up and more importantly the linebackers to cover those underneath routes will help the pass rush immensely. It also doesn't hurt if there are some moster pass rushers as well.

It depends on the post. I have read some that are incredibly set on Oregon leaving the PAC as soon as possible, ideally for the B1G. Other posts are more stay in the PAC. It's a mixed bag for sure. By the way... Tomorrow I have an article coming up on FishDuck on this issue of should Oregon stay or go. So stay tuned!

Ha, I love it. I see a fellow business and legal consultant offering a different perspective here! I'm sorry, but it just isn't going to work. Every position is a position of need two years out, and there are many prospects left. For the players that have committed elsewhere already- that's on the Huskies. In the age of the transfer portal you really do pursue the best players in the positions of need on the recruiting trail, knowing if you come up short you can shop the portal. But the lifeblood of programs is still recruiting high school players. No program has yet proven that they can live entirely from the portal. Portal players are also starting to cost more NIL than your prep recruits because they are proven. Washington fans are lying to themselves right now.

I see it part of a greater Lanning offensive philosophy. If you watch the pacing of Duck games last year there were really three phases to the game. Phase 1 - getting comfortable and getting early points. Phase 2 - the crazy middle 8. Phase 3 - burn the clock and win the game. Here's my article on the middle eight. Dan Lanning is Embracing the Middle Eight Theory FISHDUCK.COM Football is a sport of bizarre statistics that mostly seem irrelevant, but if you dive into them, they tell a greater... and here is Charles' article on Lanning burning clock. Is Lanning's New Game-Plan...Chip Kelly 2.0? FISHDUCK.COM Oregon just beat the master, and his offense. How can you say the Ducks are CK 2.0? This is a natural...

Then let us hope that SC is out of the running for the champ game this year so they can just sit miserably watching the rest of the PAC play.

And linebackers that look to be flexible and able to defend the run and cover in space! The secondary should give the front seven the time they need to get consistent pressure. Especially with some beasts on the dline.

If Oregon's defense looks like it did during the spring game I feel pretty good. The coverage was pretty tight and there was consistent pass rush. Granted I want to see it taken up a level because it would be Oregon's starters all playing with a full fall camp under their belts. But after the spring game I do feel the Oregon defense has taken some much needed steps towards improvement. Has Lanning Fixed the Duck Defense's Soft Underbelly? FISHDUCK.COM The Oregon Ducks' defense has maintained one major problem for the last three years. Simply put, it has a... Ensuring the defense can get off the field will be of the utmost importance against Texas Tech.

Sanders has certainly brought attention to the conference. It's a lot of hype and a lot of drama. He does draw a lot of reactions from his interviews, agree with him or not everyone seems to have an opinion on what he says. Not a bad thing for the conference right now to gather some extra eyeballs with that. I love what Lanning is doing at Oregon and I'm glad our drama level is super low. But until the season rolls around no one is really going to talk about us too much.

I will refrain from yet again ranting on how much I hate empty sets. Well I won't rant .. but I did mention it.

Oregon can be like Clemson in the ACC ... Don't need a strong conference to win a national championship. I think the PAC on the whole needs to win the bulk of its non-conference slate every year because that would make the conference relevant.

What made Nix successful last year was that he didn't need to play hero ball all the time. He had some heroic moments, yes. But his main job is get the ball to a playmaker and they'll make a big play. That's having a well rounded offense and a key to a successful team.

I can live with Oregon being ignored. DJU had all the tools at his disposal at Clemson and it never really clicked. Smith might be able to coach him up a bit but he isn't going to have the talent around him like he had at Clemson. Penix is good and he has some good receivers. But does Washington have the depth? Probably not and they have lost talent again this year and it doesn't look like it is being refilled. Nix has a complete offense around him and all the tools to make it big this year. If Oregon's defense can take a significant leap forward, like they should, then this Oregon team is going to be unstoppable. So we'll just let them sleep in the Ducks for now.

I'm not fully sold on him but I also know none of us know the full extent of the mess that Larry left behind. I imagine it was a whole lot worse than what it known publicly. Jon you will probably have quite a bit to say and add to my article coming out on Tuesday next week. I do agree that the notion that the PAC are just remnants is very insulting. I do feel though that those in any time zone other than PST (media people and those who haven't been to the Pacific time zone) do believe all that is out here is Hollywood and LA. I think if we get a decent media deal Oregon is going to pull this conference up a notch.

Canzano said in his article yesterday that SMU has enough wealthy backers that they'll cover an exit fee without even blinking. SDSU can probably get their fee reduced or get a payment time table olto make it doable. They also probably have some backers that are happy to help out. It's just posturing at the moment but it'd be nice if it was all over.

If they want to... Mentioned on another thread today is that many of the higher ups in the B1G don't like the prospect of regularly traveling to the west coast. Ohio State cancelled their ooc with Washington to avoid the expense. Traveling to southern California once every couple years is one thing... It's nice there and is in the middle of a recruiting hot bed. But what about the perspect of traveling to the PNW in October? Sure it's warmer than the midwest ... But it's rainy and from a recruiting stand point it isn't worth their while. I could see resistance to adding more west coast schools. The current B1G members probably don't care about the LA schools' burden of travel but they'll care about their own and simply put... More west coast schools will mean more frequent trips.

Long game vs short game. I do feel there is a chance for things to work out for the PAC in some significant ways. It will require some luck but everything in life feels like it takes just a little bit of luck. What's certain right now is that we are still squarely in phase 1... Survival.

This is my 100th article with FishDuck. A quick shout out to Charles for giving me the opportunity to write and be read by you all. And then a bigger shout-out to the editors who have helped make my articles so good, Natalie Liebhaber and Andy Mueller have done the bulk of the editing for me so big thank you to both of them. Looking forward to the next 100!

I think that is likely... But I think it has a few more factors at play. One, if Oregon and Washington feel they have enough access to the CFP they may not feel the need to move to the B1G if they are feeling good in their financial situation. Two, UCLA may make more in the B1G but will it fix their financial problems? That has yet to be seen. Sure more money but also a greater cost in travel. I was thinking of trying to dive into a few of these questions in my next article.. we'll see if I have the time on that front. I may be on summer break but I still have a one year old walking around the house.

But we don't want their one commit ... He doesn't even have an Oregon offer! You could actually argue that UW is probably his BEST offer. Arizona I think is an up and coming program and Colorado has hype with Prime. And well Michigan State... But those were all the power 5 offers. Maybe Central Florida counts as they are joining the Big-12 but I think we're in the midst of redefining power conferences. But I do know that Portland State is certainly NOT in a power conference or even a power school.

And sure.. Bama is off to a slow start this cycle... But they have more than 1 recruit and Bamas current class will probably out rank the UW class this year.