Jon Joseph

Zach Neel and the Ducks Wire have to repeat Statistics 101. What are the odds that the B1G and the SEC champions will be seeded lower than 2nd? What are the odds for each of the ten teams listed in this article to finish as the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th seed? You cannot simply add up the odds for each round and arrive at a logical cumulative odds percentage without a far deeper dive into a given team's odds where it will be seeded if it is the champion of its conference, including a calculation of a team's strength-of-schedule. However, this is a fitting take on the FP (Why?) I Rankings that every year overrate and underrate many a team. ESPN's (Bill Connelly's) SP+ has logic to it. The FPI? Every Stat Proven Negatory. Oregon Football among top contenders for bye in 2025 CFP DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM ESPN’s FPI has Oregon Football as an early favorite to receive a first-round bye in the 2025 College Football Playoff. Experts with money at risk calculated the odds that NJ posted. Admittedly, the 'Vegas Odds' are in part calculated to 'balance the book' but projected win totals require a deep expert dive into a team's schedule, including where and when the games will be played.

In Boston? YES!

These are the predictions that try fan's souls. Final Four 2024: Projecting college football's last teams standing next season, potential surprises 247SPORTS.COM Going through a hypothetical college football bracket. Here is an expert predicting an all-SEC Peach Bowl on 1/1/25, Georgia vs LSU. Wait a Minute! We have a slight problem with this prediction. The SEC Champion is required to play in the Sugar Bowl on 1/1/25. Even if it is the No. 1 seed, UGA cannot choose the Peach Bowl over the Sugar Bowl. Oregon vs Ohio State in the Rose Bowl? This could happen and the game would likely be the 3rd game between the O's in 2024-25. But I very much doubt it. And I do not see No. 8 or No. 9 seed LSU playing Georgia in the 2nd round in the Sugar Bowl. Many so-called 'experts' do not understand the PO format and where the 2nd and 3rd round games will be played. The Orange Bowl is along with the Cotton Bowl a 3rd round site. The ACC champ is odds on to have a first-round bye and play its opening game in the Peach Bowl. The blind leading the blind?

I'm Hockey Sticks - 77 years of age. And none the Budweiser. Grew up in Boston in the upscale Back Bay. The part of the Boston isthmus that was filled in by the rubble left from the devastating earthquake in 1755. In the Olde Towne, all that was left standing after the quake were stray chimneys. Today, part of Back Bay, the South End (not Southie) of Boston has been gentrified. But back in the day, when it was a dump, we'd head into the South End to the Dartmouth Street Cafe. IDs? Who needed stinking IDs? Draft beers went for five cents a glass. Ergo, 20 draftees for a dollar bill. Hot dogs that had been steamed for who knows how long, but too long, went for a dime with roll and mustard. I'm not certain my today's old man's stomach agrees, but those were the good Olde Towne days. Go Celtics!

Exhibit A; The Athletic's Stewart Mandel's updated top-25, while friendly to the ACC and the B12, has No., 12 Missouri as being first out. Knocked out by the G5 representative. This will not bounce high in Birmingham. College football preseason Top 25: Alabama rises in updated rankings WWW.NYTIMES.COM Who are the top 25 teams in the country as we come out of the spring? Let's take a look at our latest rankings. Stewart's Top 25 gives me pause. But Utah at No. 8 and FSU at No.10 would lower the angst instead of the B12 and ACC champ finishing outside of the top 12 and being seeded No. 3 and No. 4. 8 SEC/ 6 ACC/ 5 B12/ 4 B1G/ 1 Independent SEC - 4 of the top 6. OK (no pun intended) but No. 1 UGA plays No. 3 TX, No. 4 Bama, No. 6 Ole Miss, and 16 Tennessee. And the other ranked SEC teams also play one another. 8 conference games only but there are conference matchups with very good to excellent teams playing one another. 6 ACC teams ranked? No comprende. Again, the ACC plays but 8 conference games but it is still 8 games. How many of the ranked ACC teams will finish 9-3 or better? 10 FSU and 18 Louisville play at 7 Notre Dame. 22 Clemson opens against No. 1 UGA. 14 Miami opens at Florida. 5 B12 teams ranked? IMO, in 2024, the B12 takes over the Pac-12 'cannibal conference' moniker. No B12 team has a Blue Chip roster and the B12 play 9 conference games. 4 B1G teams ranked? First, Penn State at 17 is seriously underrated. Get by West Virginia in the opener and Penn State has a game vs. Ohio State where it will be an underdog playing at home and a game at USC where it may be an underdog. As it has in many the season under James Franklin, PSU has 10-2 written all over it. I am more bullish on SC than most but I see SC finishing 9-3 and with its SOS in the top 25. I think Iowa will finish higher than 24 and that Nebraska and Wisconsin could finish in the top 25. Nebraska lost five one-possession games last season, has better personnel this season, and Matt Ruhle's teams have all improved in his second season. Notre Dame? The schedule provides a beguiling argument for a top-10 finish. I see Notre Dame opening with a loss at Texas A+M in game one, a loss in game 12 at USC, and a loss to one of FSU/Louisville in South Bend. Let's Get It On!

The only thing 'sticky' would be antitrust issues. Fox and ESPN will take their best shot at Notre Dame and North Carolina - I think both schools go B1G and bring the B1G to 20 members. The SEC goes to 20 with the additions of Clemson, FSU, and 2 more ACC teams or 2 B12 teams. FSU becomes an AAU member and the B1G will also be after FSU. Then, other than for antitrust reasons, why not have a 16-team playoff with 8 from the B1G and 8 from the Power 2? To keep the lawyers and politicians at bay, go to 14 teams and have a play-in between the 4 highest-ranked restructured ACC, B12, and G5 teams. All is quiet on the playoff front today because lower ranked ACC champ, B12 champ, and G5 representative have yet to knockout higher-ranked B1G and/or SEC teams, and the SEC playing 8 conference games hasn't put 5 teams in the field with the B1G getting 2 or 3 in. Come 2026 the PO format will change.

Is RB Jay Harris who transferred to Oregon from the D2 Northwest Missouri State Bearcats, this season's Corey Schrader? Last season, RB Schrader moved up from Truman University's (formerly known as Northeast Missouri State) D2 football program to the SEC's Missouri Tigers. for his final season of eligibility. The Truman State Bulldogs (not The Kitchens?) are members of the Great Lake Valley Conference. Quite the step up. In 2023, RB Schrader was ALL-SEC and an AP All-American. Jay is moving on up from the Mid-America Intercollegiate Athletics Association (Whew!) Also a B1G step with hopefully similar results.

That's 2 PM my time. It's Saturday, never too early for a righteous IPA. Stay off the road and limit yourself to one an inning. Go Diamond Ducks!

Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News has been the Pac-12 go-to journalist for the last two decades. (Pay Wall - I think NJ can break through?) He recently published what I am calling his 2024 Playoff Friendly preseason top 25; the last preseason take before the Pac-12 in substance if not form disappears. Jon, an AP Poll voter has always ranked to his own rankings drummer. This ultimate preseason ranking is Playoff Friendly because the ACC and B12 champions, Florida State and Utah, are in Wilner's top five and his G5 representative Boise State, ranked 24th is in Jon's top 25. 1. Ohio State/ 2. Georgia/ 3. Florida State/ 4. OREGON/ 5. Utah/ 6. Notre Dame/ 7. Texas/ 8. Alabama/ 9. Oklahoma State/ 10. Ole Miss 11. Michigan/ 12. Clemson/ 13. LSU/ 14. Nebraska/ 15. Missouri/ 16. Arizona/ 17. Miami/ 18. Penn State/ 19. Kansas/ 20. Tennessee 21. Oklahoma/ 22. Kansas State/ 23. Iowa/ 24. Boise State/ 25. Wisconsin. ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ Four of Oregon's 2024 opponents are ranked: 1. Ohio State; 11. Michigan; 24. Boise State, and 25. Wisconsin. Eight SEC, Seven B1G, Five B12, Three ACC, One Independent, and One G5 team are ranked. The biggest movers from Jon's initial preseason ranking, which he released the day before Saint Nick retired: 14. NR Nebraska; 17. NR Miami; 22. NR Kansas State; and 23. NR Iowa. Alabama without Nick dropped four spots to No. 8, as did Oklahoma to 21. Oregon moved from seven to four. Texas moved from 12. to No. 7. Overrated compared to most preseason polls: No. 3 Florida State; No. 5 Utah, by far! Underrated compared to most preseason polls: 10. Ole Miss; 11. Michigan; 15. Missouri; and 18. Penn State. ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ The Jon Wilner Playoff Field: Rose Bowl - 1. Ohio State vs. 9. Oklahoma State at 8. Alabama Fiesta Bowl - 4. Utah vs. 12. Boise State at 5. OREGON Sugar Bowl - 2. Georgia vs. 10. Ole Miss at 7. Texas Peach Bowl - 3. Florida State vs. 11. Michigan at 6. Notre Dame Requiescat in Pace Pac-12.

Except for the TCU bowling for dollars game. When Helf got the Ho after Heave?

Hold On! Puddles is on the way. Big Ten baseball continues Super Regional drought with horrific conclusion to regional round SATURDAYTRADITION.COM Big Ten baseball will not make an appearance in the Super Regionals, continuing a drought since Michigan advanced to the College World Series in 2019.

The season being less than 100 days away gives me a B1G Rush. Hammerin’ the B1G: 5 candidates to lead the Big Ten in rushing for 2024 SATURDAYTRADITION.COM The Big Ten will have no shortage of star power at running back in 2024. Here are 5 players capable of winning the league's rushing title this fall. Is it OK for me to say: Go JJ!

No surprise that B1G transfer winners are the 2 Os - OBD and Ohio State. Big Ten football transfers: New Ohio State, Oregon stars poised to make immediate impact in 2024 season - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM The top two favorites to win the conference made blockbuster moves in the transfer portal this offseason

Dear Rob, please note that Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State, do not go on the road to play G5 opponents. To wit: Michigan Football future schedules, opponents through 2034 WWW.MAIZENBREW.COM All the matchups announced through 2034 for the Michigan Wolverines.

Football Power Index - Which college teams are undervalued? - ESPN WWW.ESPN.COM The first FPI for the 2024 season is out, and ESPN's college football reporters are here to break it down.

Thanks, Alex. Imagine a Ducks top 10 QB and WR in the league? Dan Fouts 3rd round draft pick, No. 64, in 1973. He retired in 1987 and was inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame in 1993. Chargers coach Don Coryell and Dan revolutionized the NFL downfield passing game. Ahmad Rashad was the 1st round, No. 4 pick of the Saint Louis Cardinals in 1972. An RB at Oregon from Tacoma, Washington, Rashad switched to WR in the pros and played in 4 Pro Bowls. Both men went on to NFL broadcasting careers, Everything I'm reading from Pro Football Focus and the other 'experts,' say it will be all systems GO for BO to start for the Broncos. There is a lot to be excited about while waiting (SIGH) for both the Ducks and the NFL seasons to begin. Denver's opening regular season game comes on 9/8/24 on the road in Seattle. Go Ducks! Vanquish the Vandals. Autzen Stadium on 8/31/24. Thanks again.

'VICIOUS?" 😁 GO DUCKS!

Thank you, Stevan. Where do they find these guys? 14,865 yards passing/ 125 TDs/ 26 Ints./ 63.1 completion % /1060 rushing yards/ 26 ranking TDs/ 2023 All B12 QB, not playoff QB Quinn Ewers at Texas. It may have been a long journey for Dillon but he is hardly a 'journeyman.'

Another CFB 2024 Chaos Take. 2024 Chaos Scenarios, No. 6: What if Quinn Ewers gets hurt again? WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM There's a world in which the most noteworthy injury in college football is Texas QB Quinn Ewers giving way to Arch Manning.

No. 3 in returning production. 247 Sports best OL in 2024. I am happy that these Cowboys are not riding into Eugene until 2025. College football odds, bets: Why Oklahoma State is undervalued as a Big 12 championship contender - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM Mike Gundy's Cowboys have played for two of the last three Big 12 championships Make or break in 2024? 9/21 Utah, 9/28 at K State. No Arizona and no Kansas on the schedule. Blown out by Texas in the 2023 B12 title game but defeated Texas A+M in its bowl game.

Ann better get busy in the Arbor. Ranked No. 41, where is Michigan's championship bump? Wolverines lead top football recruiting storylines - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM Michigan would like its national championship to begin to generate some momentum

What in the name of Cheech and Choong was the FPI algorithms smoking? 5 SEC teams in the playoff field could certainly happen. However, Oklahoma and Tennessee are in. LSU, Ole Miss, and Missouri are out? This by far, is the worst preseason ranking I have seen for Ole Miss and the highest that I have seen for Oklahoma. Oklahoma plays Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU on the road and Texas in Dallas. Tennessee and Alabama visit Oklahoma. Oklahoma has a QB whose only start was in a bowl loss to Arizona where the young man threw for over 300 yards but also threw 3 picks. Every OL starter in the bowl game is gone. BTW, where is Utah? The other ESPN computer, Bill Connolly's SP+ is a more accurate predictor of future results. Bill has four SEC teams in the playoff field, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, and Ole Miss. Bill also has four B1G teams in the field, Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, and Penn State. The ACC's SEC would be the 3-seed with Utah being the 4th-seed. Georgia is No. 1 in the FPI and SP+ which I understand. IMO, the FPI rankings of the SEC are off-the-wall. Thanks for the post.

Never a doubt! Oregon Baseball Outlasts No. 14 UC Santa Barbara 2-1 WWW.SI.COM Oregon baseball is one win away from a super regional. The Ducks upended UC Santa Barbara 2-1. UO stays unblemished heading into Sunday's regional final. Thank you, Charles, for the great coverage of the Diamond Ducks.

YES! 😍

OBD getting some B1G champion love. https://athlonsports.com/college-football/big-ten-title-chances-spark-debate-among-college-football-fans