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Everything posted by Jon Joseph
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Time to Add Seating at Autzen?
YES!
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How Fox and ESPN Dismantled the Pac-12
Good thought but 'capitalism' and 'fairly' do not belong in the same sentence. This is all on terrible leadership from the top down for close to two decades.
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How Fox and ESPN Dismantled the Pac-12
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More Civil Wars? It Could Take Years to Schedule New Matchups
I hope this is not a total duplication of the above comments. Dump the Oklahoma State and Baylor series regardless of whether the Beavers can clear its own OOC slate. Rob, you are now a B1G Boy. No two-for-one G5 games with playing at Boise State, Utah State, or at any G5 school unless it helps with recruiting such as playing at Hawaii. If OR ST can't clear its slate, replace OK ST and Baylor with certain wins even if you have to buy wins. Last season, Michigan State played Colorado State, Hawaii, and UConn in Ann Arbor and was the #2 seed in the playoff. Come 2024 Oregon's B1G schedule, rightly or wrongly, will have far more cache than playing in the Pac-12. Beat the B1G teams on the schedule, advance to the B1G title game, or finish 3rd in the conference and possibly even 4th in 2024/25 and Oregon will have a very good shot at a spot in the 12-team playoff field so long as it plays but 1 little guy OOC and 2 G5 teams. And the 3 OOC games come 2024/25 all should be played in Autzen. Yes, play Oregon State, likely an MW member when practicable but it takes two to tango. BTW, for the 2nd season in a row, Oregon State is not playing a P5 opponent OOC. And Oregon State's stadium seating capacity is smaller than the smallest B1G (16), Northwestern Ryan Stadium which seats at @43,000.
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Are You Ready For Some Football? I Certainly Am More Than Ready
Austin Mock, The Athletic, predictive model for Pac-12 win totals and odds to win the conference. Every game is simulated thousands of times based on play-by-play data adjusted for the opponent. Below are the odds to win the conference, the number of wins projected for each team likely to be ranked in the AP Poll preseason Top 25, and the best bets according to Mock's model Odds to win the conference. USC - +200 Oregon - +325 Washington - +325 Utah - +500 Oregon State - +1000 Win totals and percentages for winning the conference title. USC - 9.2 - 25.77% Oregon - 9.4 - 22.57% Washington - 9.2 - 20.02% Utah - 9.0 - 17.94% Oregon State - 7.9 - 4.96% And UCLA - 8.6 - 7.89% Mr. Mock's Model (is this a perfect name for a predictive model or what?) likes Oregon's chances far better than Mr. Media. Bets Bets - Arizona - Over 5 wins - +100 Utah - Over 8.5 wins - +120 USC - UNDER 8.5 Wins -110 LET'S PLAY BALL!
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How Fox and ESPN Dismantled the Pac-12
Lots of intelligent people will be doing all they can to limit non-revenue sports travel east and west. One thing we know is that tech has taken away much of the need to be in a classroom live for a lecture. This is where ironically, I guess, streaming will come in to help the cause. You can bring the classroom with you on a laptop. I can envision Oregon and UW baseball and softball teams sharing a charter, with tutors on board, and traveling to say, Happy Valley, Pennsylvania for a week of round-robin games vs Penn St, Rutgers, and Maryland. And the same type of travel west for B1G teams located in the east. Ditto for golf, softball, volleyball, and other sports. Fortunately, Oregon and Washington will not have to worry about ice hockey travel. Everything that can be done will be done to accommodate non-revenue sports athletes and to assure Title 9 compliance. And the non-revenue athletes will have the opportunity to perform on a far bigger stage which could translate into significant NIL income. You are now selling your NIL coast-to-coast and not just on the west coast.
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How Fox and ESPN Dismantled the Pac-12
Having just watched B1G Now with the positive continuing coverage of adding in Oregon and UW makes me even more certain that the Northwest schools made the right call. Come 2031, the new B1G deal will be off the financial charts and Oregon will be getting a full slice of a huge media pie. Apple has all the money in the world and yet Apple ground down the Pac-10 because it wasn't willing to step up and pay a reasonable amount to run a college sports beta site. And the deal had a 3-year life if the projections needed to get a return on par with the B12 with nowhere to go after 3 years if the Pac-10 canceled out. Why would Oregon and UW, given a choice, not pass on this for the security that comes with being a member of the Power 2? Why would Oregon trust GK and his friends to put together a better deal three years from now? Certainly, I respect your POV but for Oregon to pass on this opportunity would be on par with the senseless business decisions and non-decisions made under the reign of Larry and the Captain of the Larry Team, Michael Crow. I am so happy that Crow will now be in Oregon's rearview mirror. I'm also happy that Oregon will be in a conference where SC is not driving the bus. Many of the medals heroes win are granted posthumously.
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How Fox and ESPN Dismantled the Pac-12
Yes. And Jim Delaney's' idea about forming a network dedicated to one conference was laughed out of the college football world room.
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How Fox and ESPN Dismantled the Pac-12
However, in 2018 ESPN offered to buy and operate the Pac-12 Network and sign the Pac-12 on for a 12-year media deal. Pac-12 leaders (?) demurred and Larry kept his multi-million dollar network CEO salary in place. I doubt that ESPN was going to pay a premium for the network but I do think that ESPN would have returned each school's investment and the network would have had 'varsity-like' coverage and be up on every available cable outlet. (Neil Everett might still have a World Wide Leader job.) Distributions from the network would have met and likely exceeded the network projected revenues. And in 2018, ESPN was in a financial position not only to acquire the network but also to pay a healthy price for the conference's Tier 1 media rights. USC could have again received a bigger piece of the media pie and the Pac-12 is not RIP. Another example of See Foot, Shoot! You reap what you sow and don't sow.
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How Fox and ESPN Dismantled the Pac-12
Likely because CBS and NBC knew by following Fox's lead if could get Oregon and UW at a discount.
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More B1G Tidbits of Interest...
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Are You Ready For Some Football? I Certainly Am More Than Ready
25 questions for our newest B1G buddies. 25 burning questions about the 2023 Big Ten season SATURDAYTRADITION.COM Wondering how 2023 will play out on the field in the Big Ten? Saturday Tradition has you covered with 25 burning questions... IT IS BIG!
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How Fox and ESPN Dismantled the Pac-12
North Beerchug State? I love it but more to the point and in full support of David's excellent article, see point #1 below. https://collegefootballnews.com/cfn/whos-left-for-the-sec-college-football-is-business-5-expansion-thoughts
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Are You Ready For Some Football? I Certainly Am More Than Ready
The National version of 25 questions. Hayes: 25 burning questions about the 2023 college football season WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM Had enough realignment talk? So have we. Matt Hayes tackles the biggest issues for the 2023 season, in and around the SEC.
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Are You Ready For Some Football? I Certainly Am More Than Ready
25 Questions for the Pac-12 in 2023. Gold: 25 burning questions about the 2023 Pac-12 season SATURDAYOUTWEST.COM As many obvious answers that abound in the Pac-12, there are just as many questions, if not more. The biggest? Can the league... 2024 - The answer is Four?
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Are You Ready For Some Football? I Certainly Am More Than Ready
The Coaches Poll Preseason top 25 Poll. 5 Pac-12 teams and Texas Tech makes the cut. Coaches Poll top 25: Michigan ahead of Alabama, Ohio State in preseason college football rankings - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM The Georgia Bulldogs also start on top of the Coaches Poll for the first time since 2008
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Where the REST of the Pac is Going...
That's what it said and I agree that OR ST is not in a position to demand a full share.
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Will Oregon Play USC, UCLA and UW Every Year?
Scott Dochterman covers the B1G for The Athletic (paywall.) Below are Scott's predictions for the 2024 Oregon and UW schedules. OREGON - Home - Washington, UCLA, OHIO STATE (YES!), Maryland (The Helmet Clash?), Minnesota Away - USC, Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska - 1 East Coast trip and 2 Central time zone trips, not bad at all. WASHINGTON - Home - USC, Iowa, Purdue, Penn State (a B1G biggie.) Away - UCLA, OREGON, Maryland, Michigan State (back-to-back?), Wisconsin. 2 Eastern time zone trios; 1 Central time zone trip. Scott came close to nailing the B1G (16) permanent-flex schedule. Would be nice to have 5 conference games at home in 2024 with only 1 traditional B1G biggie, Ohio State on the schedule and coming to Autzen. If Scott's projection is correct, I like Oregon's 2024 schedule more than UW's schedule. Scott does believe that the West Coast teams will play one another every year.
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Will Oregon Play USC, UCLA and UW Every Year?
1 LA school a year and the final regular season game versus UW could very well happen. In CBB and the non-revenue sports, I think Oregon will see a double dose, or more, of the LA schools and UW.
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Where the REST of the Pac is Going...
Joining the B12 would be great for the Beavers and take some of the heat off of Oregon. College football realignment rumors: Big 12 not done expanding as surprise targets emerge FANSIDED.COM College football realignment is far from over as the Big 12 sniffs around the leftover programs in the Pac-12 and Mountain West. If...
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Will Oregon Play USC, UCLA and UW Every Year?
Upon further review, my call may not stand. Fox is paying mucho dinero for the LA schools and football is the one sport with the fewest travel concerns. At the very least I see Oregon playing one of the LA schools every year and playing UW in the last game of the regular season. But: What In The Heck Do I Know?
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How Fox and ESPN Dismantled the Pac-12
KUDOS! This a spot-on analysis. From the overview of a capitalist enterprise, Fox played this perfectly. Fox did not bid against itself. Fox waited to go after Oregon and UW after the Pac-10, with Fox sitting on the sidelines as David so correctly noted, came up with a crummy Pac-10 media deal, aided and abetted by George Kliavkoff fiddling while the conference burned. This patience allowed Fox to 'buy' the Northwest schools at a discount. A discount that will run through the 2031 season. I demur slightly at pointing the finger only at ESPN and Fox. When Oklahoma and a few other schools, including Georgia as one of the litigants, sued to end the NCAA's broadcast monopoly and with Oklahoma's triumph sustained in the mid-1980s by the Supreme Court, the floodgates were opened for media companies to take advantage of the decision and college football teams and their respective conferences, gladly opened their wallets to cash in. No one forced the schools to take the money, build Taj Mahal-like facilities, and pay college football coaches unheard sums of money. Then, the SEC commissioner, Roy Kramer, sold the ACC, B1G, B12, and Pac-12 on the idea that college football needed "One True Champion." The game went national and money if it had not done so already, ruled the college football roost. And the NCAA itself was most certainly not above the fray as it continued to expand the size of the basketball tournament so it could bring in millions of more dollars. We are told that once upon a time a man was offered the governance of and attendant riches from, being the King of all the principalities in the world. Although tempted, the man declined the offer. When you accept this kind of offer and gladly take the money and do all you can for more money, Airplane Conferences managed by media companies behind the scenes are the inevitable result. It's sad for the left behind schools. But in any capitalistic endeavor, there will be winners and losers. Viewed from the window of today's big-time college sports, I am so happy that Oregon agreed to pay a media future premium and to align itself with one of the two Power Conferences in the world of college athletics. Again David, thanks for the terrific and timely article.
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Will Oregon Play USC, UCLA and UW Every Year?
I'm pretty certain that the West Coast teams will meet every year to cut down on travel going in both directions. East Coast teams have no more desire to play out West than have USC, UCLA, Oregon, and UW to play at Maryland and Rutgers. I'm reasonably certain that the B1G will move to 10 conference games so each school will have 5 home and away conference games. I'd like to see Nebraska, the western-most B1G school as of today, in a five-team permanent rotation so each team in the western rotation would have 2 away and home games every year. 4 games in the west would mean limited travel to the Eastern time zone and also limited travel to the Central time zone, sans playing at Nebraska every other year. Under the current 9 conference game schedule, Oregon would only have to trip East beyond Nebraska 2 or 3 times a year. Besides getting them at a discount, limiting travel for all sports including football was a reason to add Oregon and UW.
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Who Should Oregon Schedule in the Future Other than the Beavs?
No B12 teams unless OR ST joins the B12 and absolutely no 2-for-1 series with G5 teams. The B1G will go to a 10-game conference schedule likely by 2026. There will be no reason to schedule an OOC heavyweight. Enough of these heavyweights, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa, UCLA, UW, and USC reside in-conference to provide all of the SOS that Oregon will need. Play SEC teams and Clemson and FSU in the expanded playoff. The game will no longer be worth the candle to risk a potential loss OOC. More important to find middle weights that will give Oregon not fewer than 7 home games every year.
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More B1G Tidbits of Interest...
THIS should happen. With the in-conference SOS and an expanded playoff field, this will not hurt Oregon's ability to make the field. Oregon now has Est Coast Bias cache and games over lower-level B1G teams will just mean more than games against lower-rung Pac-12 teams. And will be viewed by far more fans. I'm looking forward to the read.