Jon Joseph

Future odds are out for the 2023 College Football Playoff title winner. No surprise that the east coast Dawgs are #1. Georgia +220 - 1 (USA Today Ranking) 63 (USA Today Strength of Schedule (SOS.) Georgia, due to the SEC calling off the game at Oklahoma, has a cupcake OOC schedule with Georgia Tech being the only Power 5 opponent. Below are the odds for Oregon and for the teams that Oregon plays in 2023. Utah - +6000 - 14 - 20 Playing Florida in SLC, at Baylor, vs Oregon, at UW, and at USC lifts the Utes SOS. Washington - +3000 - 12 - 15 - UW's SOS? UW plays Utah and Oregon in Seattle. Should trips to E. Lansing to play Sparty and to LA to play Troy (The Iliad Daily Double?) lift the SOS this much? USC - +1600 - 4 - 39 - This is a lofty ranking for a team that plays Utah and UW and road games at Notre Dame and Oregon OREGON - +3000 - 15 - 59 - The Ducks are preseason ranked behind UW and Utah but Vegas has Oregon matching up with Troy in the Pac-12 title game, in Vegas. 59 SOS? With 4 games against ranked teams and a game at Texas Tech that is ranked in many preseason polls? Oregon Football: Where Ducks stand in post-spring championship odds DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM The Ducks have good chances to make it to and win the Pac-12 title this year. What are their odds to win the national championship?

Thanks for posting this Charles. Notalot deserves the credit for the initial posting that he was good enough to send to me. The best, most detailed, and most objective take on the issue of possible future expansion that I have read.

I think this is a realistic outlook. But CU will be improved at almost every position and the OC Deion brought in, who was the HC at Kent State, is a wizard on O with a capable QB in Deion's son. Folsom Field will be sold out and rocking for every Buffs home game. I think this will be good for at least 1 upset win.

FYI, UGA's recruiting budget is $4.5M a year!

It's been reported that there was a shouting match or two going on among a couple of ADs. I knew that there were 7 disgruntled teams. Louisville could be the straw that breaks the ACC's back. As you noted Not, 8 schools have the power to make the conference disappear with no exit payment required. AAU ACC member schools of interest to the B1G - Duke, UNC, UVA, Georgia Tech. Pitt is an AAU member school but I don't think Penn State would want Pitt in the conference. The ACC breaking up would likely force Notre Dame into a conference, most likely the B1G. So in addition to Fox, NBC might come up with some of the needed expansion money. Does Fox have the money to add more teams to the B1G at a dollar amount that would encourage the teams to leave? If the B1G wanted to add ACC teams Fox could pick them up a discount compared to what it is paying to bring on the LA schools and the existing B1G members, @70M a year. Clemson, FSU, UNC and if UNC was added, NC State, would be attractive additions to the SEC. Maybe Miami but Miami is a small private school and would be a third school in Florida if FSU was to join the SEC. Same question as where the money would come from, this time directed at ESPN. But ESPN would save money by shutting down the ACC Network. Florida and South Carolina might beef over the addition of FSU and Clemson but like A+M's protestations against joining the conference were ignored I think these two schools' objections would be ignored. I am curious as to why Louisville would join the chorus. I do not see Louisville as an attractive addition to the B1G or the SEC. The SEC already has the major market share in Kentucky with Kentucky CFB and CBB. I could see both Miami and Louisville and Va Tech, in the B12, joining W VA and UCF in the Eastern time zone. But again, that would mean that ESPN/Fox would have to come up with @$30M for each new B12 member. Man, I hope the Pac-10 stays together. If not, Oregon and UW could be left behind or forced to join the B12. Gulp! Round and round it goes. Where it stops nobody knows.

Colorado is replacing scrubs with higher-ranked players. The vast majority of the CU players who have left were not highly-ranked recruits. This is not the case with the 32 Oregon players that have portaled out. Oregon has a solid portal ranking but the ranking IMO does not adequately reflect DL filing positions of need. BTW, yesterday Coach Prime signed the #1 ranked RB out-of-portal as well as another quality transfer. CU's schedule is brutal in 2023 but if the roster gels Prime could take CU to a bowl game. I love that Prime's conference audition will be in Autzen Stadium. Add USC and Oregon State to the home games and Oregon has a very good home schedule in 2023. Both the CU and USC games will be on Primetime TV. And if they hold serve, I expect Game Day will be in Eugene for the SC game.

I agree Not. What might have been perfect would have been to hire now consultant Jim Delaney as an interim commissioner. At least until a new media deal was concluded. And Jim likely would have gotten a heads up on SC and UCLA heading to the B1G and may have been able to cut the move off at the pass. Hiring media-oriented folk as your commissioner, see the B1G and B12, seems to be the trend today but I am not certain that it is a viable strategy. Why the B1G with a huge media deal in place needed a guy with no college football experience I have no idea. Former B12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, a football guy including having served as the AD at Kansas and Stanford, saved the B12 (although USC president Carol Folt probably did more to save the B12) by astutely adding BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. And the new B12 commissioner appears to have made a solid move starting the B12's new media negotiations ahead of the always seemingly at least one step behind Pac-12/10. But I think the new guy's mouth is writing checks the conference can't cash. One wonders if any Pac-10 commissioner can succeed considering the folks he is reporting to. Many of them have no idea that they are running a big business and not the Ivy League.

Here are the rankings for Pac-12 coaches ranked in the top 69. I have redacted the entire article as it is lengthy. I expect the top 25 coaches will come out next week and will include SC's Riley and Utah's Whittingham. 69. Troy Taylor - Stanford - This is low based on his FCS record at Sac State but in today's CFB world does Stanford have a shot at competing at the highest level? 65. - Ken Dillingham - ASU -Dilly would be high on the list of OCs but this ranking with no HC experience makes sense. 61. Jedd Fisch - Arizona - From 1-16 two seasons before to 5-7. IMO this ranking is too low. 58. Justin Wilcox - CAL - Battling tough academic standards and administrative malaise is hard to overcome. 57. Jake Dickert - WA State - 7-6 in 2022 up from 5-7 in 2022 moved Dickert up from 63 to 57. Will he defeat Wisconsin back-to-back? 55. Deion Sanders - CU - One of the best coaches in FCS. Will he be able to turn Ralphie around? 36. Dan Lanning - OREGON - I expect DL to rise way up in these rankings after the 2023 season.[BTW - Mario Cristobal comes in at 39. Lots of $ for this ranking.] 32. Jonathan Smith - Oregon State - Considering the resources JS has this is probably too low. 31. Kalen DeBoer - Washington - Well, he did defeat both J Smith and DL in 2022. But by the skin of his teeth on both occasions. Good recruiter but nowhere near the recruiting chops evidenced by Dan Lanning.

And was she playing footsie with Fox and the B1G at the time? If so, that would be a breach of fiduciary duty and would also violate a number of California anti-fraud statutes. This is where a strong commissioner, Jim Delaney or Greg Sankey, would have forced the issue and the conference would have expanded. A Power 5 conference bites the dust. A competitor for media income goes away. How did the Pac powers-that-be not see this? Not accretive? These schools, KS, K St, Iowa St, OK St, Baylor, TX Tech, TCU, and Houston could have been picked up on the cheap and both ESPN and Fox would have been at the table bidding for Pac-20 media rights. In other words, other people's money would have paid for the expansion. The acquirer's 'stock' would not be diluted. The folks who opine that this would not have made financial sense are clueless when it comes to the valuation of an M+A deal. Moving into the Central time zone and especially into Texas could have saved the financially insolvent Pac-12 Network. And unequal revenue distributions may have kept SC in the conference. If USC doesn't move UCLA is going nowhere. And rejecting this opportunity came with an arrogant excuse that the teams to be added were not academically worthy. HUBRIS! Hubris has turned around to haunt The Conference of Champions. In the real world, litigation over SC and UCLA's move would have been filed against these 2 schools, Fox, Kevin Warren, and the B1G. But this is the Ivory Tower world of academia so it's not happening. Man, I hope the Pac-10 survives but what goes around comes around. Sorry for a repetitive post on this matter but the decision not to expand should be taught at Harvard and other highly acclaimed Business Schools as an example of an all-time vapid business decision. The vote against expansion was 9-3. I'd love to know how Oregon voted. How the Oregon president now at Northwestern voted.

Good Gosh grant you and your husband a healing blessing Pa Duck. COVID is still out there haunting and hunting all of us. Thank you so much Charles for this post.

'Facts are a stubborn thing.' John Adams Do I wish that the SEC was not CFB's lead sled dog by a mile? Yes. But by every meaningful metric, other than for academics, the SEC leads the league.

AMEN! Rugby on steroids.

Book it Danno! Franklin is ranked by USA Today (Ducks Wire) as the 4th best receiver in the Pac, behind Singer at SC and 2 UW WRs, and Johnson and Bryant are also ranked in the top 25. Lanning keeps on keeping on. Right up there with Scotty.

Great take but I believe that it is Ohio State and not LSU that is WRU. https://duckswire.usatoday.com/lists/who-has-the-most-talented-wide-receiver-room-in-the-pac-12/

Gold: 5 toughest Pac-12 nonconference schedules SATURDAYOUTWEST.COM Sorry Coach Prime, there will be no easy entry into the 2023 season for the Buffs. Colorado is one of many Pac-12 teams with a daunting nonconference slate. Oregon should be here over ASU. Playing at texas Tech is more difficult than playing OK State at home.

Gold: The 5 easiest Pac-12 nonconference schedules of 2023 SATURDAYOUTWEST.COM Forget a gauntlet. Some Pac-12 teams have front-loaded their schedules with cakewalks. Which conference squads are in store for the softest Septembers?

Great take but for the SEC to lose the moniker of the best conference it has to start falling behind in recruiting (I see grabbing quality players from CA as a big plus and not a minus) the number of players matriculating to the NFL, out-of-conference win and loss totals and the SEC is picking up its OOC scheduling and has to stop winning titles. Bowl games are a dicey determination of conference strength. Especially these days when many quality players sit out bowls. Nevertheless, in 2022 Georgia defeated Ohio State and smashed TCU in the champ game. Alabama easily disposed of B12 champ K St in the Sugar Bowl. LSU destroyed B1G West champ Purdue. Tennessee easily defeated ACC champ, Clemson. Ole Miss did drop its bowl game but to a B12 team, Texas Tech, and not a B1G team. South Carolina lost to Notre Dame. I cannot recall a bowl game or a regular season game in 2022 where a B1G team defeated an SEC team. Please correct me if I am wrong (and I am often wrong.) More importantly, the B1G is not close top to bottom with the SEC in recruiting rankings so I do not see how the B1G will close the gap with the SEC. Will USC light up the B1G? Not unless it fixes a porous D. The D talent has improved but Grinch is still the coach and I see no major improvement so long as Grinch is at Troy. The Trojans were punched in the mouth by Utah in the conference champ game and couldn't hang on versus Tulane in the Cotton Bowl. IMO SC comes into the B1G as perhaps, depending on the play of Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin under Finkel, Minnesota, and Nebraska under Ruhle, the 4th best or lower team in the B1G. And this season before SC joins the B1G is Williams's last go-round. Riley is a QB whisperer, no doubt, but Williams looks to be a generational talent. If healthy, the heavily favored 2024 #1 draft pick. I love these debates and I love your fervor for the B1G but by any and every measure the B1G is behind the SEC, not financially but on the football field.

These rankings were done before Oregon picked up a quality OL player from East Carolina. Oregon Football: 5 things to know about Ducks’ OL Nishad Strother DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM Strother has ample experience starting at LG, but his path to starting at Oregon is going to be fraught with competition.

This ranking was done before Oregon picked up a quality O-line player from East Carolina.

Oregon is ranked a respectable 10. Darn good considering that Oregon had 32 players enter the portal and many of these players were 3* or better recruits. Oregon plays 5 teams ranked in the top 25 in 2023.

Sending out an SOS. USC's SOS is 10th in the conference. Oregon's SOS is 4th in the conference. Yet, USC has the 39th-ranked overall toughest schedule in 2023, 20 spots ahead of the Ducks. No comprendo. SC has two lay-ups OOC. SC plays Utah and UW at home. I guess playing Notre Dame in South Bend is a super-human task. Oregon has 5 games versus preseason-ranked teams (Texas Tech is preseason ranked in many of the mock rankings that are out there) with 3 of these games on the road. 59? I was happy to see UCLA on the bottom rung for both OOC games and conference games. I won't bother to ask why the Pac-12 schedulers (Merton Hanks) gave this bon voyage gift to the Bruins. This simply fits into the conference's decade-plus dysfunction.

There is nothing wrong with NIL as intended. There is something wrong with using NIL to recruit players out of high school and from the portal. The NCAA is a neutered tiger and is not going to after programs that misuse NIL. Not going after schools that poach players. The NFL collectively bargains with its union but does nothing to rein in its players making all they can from NIL. I do not think the ACC will stay as currently structured for more than 5 years if that. A football and basketball challenge with the ACC would be fun but the distance is too great to merge with one or more ACC teams. And the ACC media deal stinks. Terrific take on the future of CFB. I agree with you in part but the $70M or so each B1G and SEC team will receive in media revenue year after year will have an impact. Especially when it comes to taking successful coaches away from the ACC, B12, and Pac-10. We have a Power 2 now and I expect and I agree that both the B1G and the SEC will add teams to form a combined super league. Oregon is fortunate to have Division Street. A professionally run and managed entity.

Great take but the top 6 B1G teams? As I noted earlier the B1G W champ Purdue was humiliated by LSU. Wisconsin was not bowl eligible in 2022. I think the top 3 can compete against anyone but after that? I see the Pac-12 in 2023 being far deeper than the B1G. Top 4? What team is your 4th? USC? Never made the playoff. Was last seen getting embarrassed by Utah and losing to a G5 team. Better than the top 4 in the SEC? I wholly disagree and the record speaks for itself. Top 5 hands down? Georgia, Alabama, LSU (far from a paper tiger; a team that won the playoff a few years back) Tennessee (defeated Clemson handily in its bowl game,) and Auburn, a team Oregon has yet to defeat. Alabama, Georgia, and LSU have all won playoff titles. Ohio State won the inaugural playoff title and that's it for the B1G. The SEC has far, far more BCS trophies than the B1G. The SEC constantly out-recruits the B1G and sends far more players on to the NFL. Kentucky, South Carolina, A+M, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State are better programs than the middle tier of the B1G. And in the last couple of years Vany defeats Northwestern had they played. Illinois had a senior-laden team last season that gave Michigan a heck of a game but did not win the B1G West. Come 2024 if the 16 B1G teams played a challenge against the 16 SEC teams I think the SEC would dominate. And I think the odds makers would back me up. Fun to ponder. But the SEC and not the B1G, has the trophies to support the bragging.

Good take but the B1G in football is a distant second to the SEC and SEC teams are for the most part ramping up their OOC schedules including Bama, UGA, Florida, LSU, and Auburn. For the majority of the B1g not playing a P5 opponent OOC could be a big ding to the SOS. Playing Northwestern, Nebraska, Indiana, Purdue, Rutgers, and Maryland does not move the SOS needle. Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, and then there is a B1G drop-off to the next tier. B1G, unlike the SEC, is making B1G bucks because of location and huge numbers of alumni./alumnae.

Good call but the NW schools going to the B1G will not top to bottom see an improvement in LOS play. Oregon has a better group of OL guys than most of the teams in the B1G. Recall that at the close of 2022, the Pac-12 had 6 teams ranked and the B1G had 3 ranked. Penn State did decisively beat the Utes in the Rose Bowl, tOSU played a great game against Georgia but Michigan was upset by a big underdog and subsequently blown out by UGA. LSU put up 60+ points on B1G West champ Purdue. Wazzu won in Madison. I think the B1G is as overrated in football as it is in basketball. A way top-heavy conference.