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Everything posted by Jon Joseph
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
SC and UCLA, get your No-Doz ready. Brutal travel numbers for football and think how this will affect non-revenue sports. Big Ten football schedule: Distance each team will travel in 2024 season when USC, UCLA join conference - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM A few teams in the Big Ten Conference will be racking up airline miles when the league expands in the 2024 season
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Pac-12 Guru Jon Wilner Reviews Legal Matters Involving the Conference and Also the NCAA
Along with his recent Mailbag, Jon Wilner (paywall) reviewed the legal matters affecting the conference and college sports at large. It isn't pretty. No one under the age of 17 should read the following without parental guidance and permission. Here is a summary of the 6 matters. 1. Pac-12 vs DISH - The conference is, hold your breath, the Plaintiff in this action suing DISH for withholding distribution payments. This suit has nothing to do with the Comcast debacle. 2. The NLRB has filed a complaint against USC, the Pac-12, and the NCAA seeking to have college athletes recognized as employees of their respective schools. This is exactly the opposite of the precedent set by the NLRB six years ago when it found that Northwestern football players are not employees and therefore could not form a players' union. 3. Holiday Bowl vs UCLA and the Pac-12. The Holiday Bowl is seeking $3M in damages for UCLA canceling out of the Holiday Bowl due to COVID shortly before the game was set to kick off. I hope the conference as a whole has filed to be removed as a defendant in the matter. The conference had nothing to do with UCLA's decision. 4. AB 252 - The College Athlete Protection Act that would require all private and public schools in California to share revenue with student-athletes has passed the California State Assembly notwithstanding all entities in California directly affiliated with college athletics lobbying vehemently against this piece of legislation. The matter is now before the California Senate. Wilner - "As the law, AB 252 would make NIL look like amateur hour in terms of ramifications for college sports." 5. The Comcast Cover-Up - 2 executives were terminated by the Pac-12 Network for failure to disclose the Comcast accounting error, too much money was paid to the conference by Comcast, and have filed a Wrongful Termination suit claiming that they disclosed the error to Larry Scott in 2017 and Scott did not report this to his overseers. This fiasco is expected to cost each Pac-12 member at least $1M plus in diminished future revenues as the result of having to balance the books with Comcast, The conference has yet to cross-claim against Scott which I believe in itself is a breach of fiduciary duty. No way that conference member athletic departments should bear the brunt of this cover-up. 6. The Hubbard Matter - Chuba Hubbard who was a running back at Oklahoma State and now plays in the NFL, and other former student-athletes, have filed an anti-trust action against the NCAA claiming billions of dollars (anti-trust law allows for treble damages) in unpaid benefits based upon the Supreme Court's 9-0 ruling against the NCAA in the Alston case. The case is in front of the Northern California District Federal Judge Claudia Williams whose ruling in the O'Bannon case years ago sparked the era of economic changes across the NCAA. In effect, I think seeking damages retroactively based upon the Alston decision should not stand but I do not trust the NCAA to properly defend this case. It could take close to a decade for this case to reach the Supreme Court but if sustained this could destroy the operations of the vast majority of G5/P5 athletic departments. The good news? Ducks baseball just made an all-time comeback and football in Autzen kicks off in a couple of months.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
Thanks, H. Kentucky was among the schools pushing to stay with 8 conference games. I guess Mark Stoops needs his bowl game bonus.
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Jon Wilner Mailbag
Thanks, Tan. I couldn't open the link but I subscribe to Mercury News and read this take elsewhere. Everything Jon says about the Oregon/UW game makes sense.
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Canzano: Pac-12 Teams Agree on "Grant of Rights"
Neil Everett gets his World Wide Leader exit papers. Best of luck Neil at your new gig. FOX? Twitter Reactions: Oregon Ducks legend Neil Everett leaves ESPN DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM “Bartender…Jack!” Oregon Duck legend Neil Everett will be leaving ESPN after 23 years. His departure left the sporting world...
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Oregon Baseball MOVED From ESPNU to ESPN for Friday Night!
Thank you, Charles, for the channel change heads-up! No country for old men watching the games on the Right Coast but Man, was I happy I hung in there last night. A comeback for the ages.
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Stunning Comeback! Ducks Were Down 8-0, Wins in Walk-off 9-8!
HUZZAH! Kept an old man up late but well worth it. GO DUCKS!
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
Without the LA schools, I also doubt, as I meant to indicate, $50M. I think with the LA schools $50M would have been a slam dunk. FOX is paying the LA schools $65M each per annum to move to the B1G. IMO, the Pac-10 will survive and with the right streaming partner will have the chance to thrive.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
Yes, rushed to the tune, so far, of a promised $5M shortfall and games on Peacock with 20M subscribers. Kind of like Carol Folt rushed into the hiring of a now-disgraced AD, With the LA schools in place, the Pac-12 does a deal for $50M plus. So is $65M enough for SC to give up its place at the head of the table?
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
I think what the Pac-10 needs is the Atlantic-Pacific Conference merger with the ACC.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
But you do have to on occasion play D which did not happen vs Utah in the conference champ game and vs Tulane in the Cotton Bowl. Before SC ventures into the B1G Caleb will be in the NFL as the likely #1 draft pick.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
The Ohio State receiving corps has speed plus and Penn State out-speeded Utah in last season's Rose Bowl as did Ohio State the year prior.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
I've always been strong when it comes to plagiarism. I did not mean to steal one of your great takes.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
Get it but SIGH. IMO the reason the ACC won't go to 9 is due to the Notre Dame independent enabling scheduling agreement. Clemson plays Notre Dame 'OOC' and plays FSU at home. Not easy by any standard. And your Tarheels play South Carolina OOC. Man, I would love to see the formation of The Atlantic-Pacific Conference that would easily win the Bronze medal in the P4 rankings. The Holiday Bowl last season was an awesome game with both Drake Maye and Bo Nix showing their skills and both Ds playing better than expected. So good to have you on the Forum + best of luck to UNC football in 2023. BTW, I think you have one and a half football members and the half just won the lacrosse title.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
OK, the schedule is what it is and it is not going to change so I'll sit back and enjoy and hope this will not come back to bite Oregon when the playoff moves to 12 teams next season, and SOS might finally matter.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
But Moore is a QB Oregon would have loved to hold onto.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
Cannot Make This up! Bill Connelly on ESPN+ (paywall) has an article up today previewing the Pac-12 SOUTH! This just in Bill, the Pac-12 dropped divisions in 2022. I guess the Pony Express has yet to make it to Bristol, Connecticut.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
Cannot Make This up! Bill Connelly on ESPN+ (paywall) has an article up today previewing the Pac-12 SOUTH! This just in Bill, the Pac-12 dropped divisions in 2022. I guess the Pony Express has yet to make it to Bristol, Connecticut? The Rodney Dangerfield of the P5.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
Two to tango granted. But there are 30+ games scheduled between Pac-12 and SEC teams between now and the early 2030s. None scheduled with Oregon. If the ASU AD can schedule the games shown above IMO Mullens not doing so is lazy and not working hard enough to sell big-time OOC games. Excuse-making doesn't explain why Florida this season is playing at Utah. A difficult place to play. A smaller stadium than Autzen and not a big recruiting bump state for the Gators. This is BIG BUSINESS. If Mullens cannot schedule heavyweights find someone who can. For $1M a year plus perks, the job will not go begging. Former B1G commissioner Jim Delany is a CFB consultant. It would be galling to have to pay a 3rd party to schedule up but perhaps this is what Rob needs to do if he can't do so on his own. Excuse-making could well have Oregon headed for the B12 or even the Mountain West. And this is no time to give the B12 a viewing and recruiting boost. What natural interest do Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Baylor have for Oregon fans as opposed to playing B1G teams? Even Rutgers. B1G middle-weights, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, Nebraska, and Minnesota would draw more eyeballs than the B12 teams Mullens has scheduled. Ditto SEC teams Missouri, Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Arkansas. All of the above teams in both the B1G and the SEC have OOC games scheduled with better opponents than Mullens is bringing to the table. Florida plays FSU and Utah in 2023 and South Carolina plays North Carolina and Clemson. What does the man do all day to earn $1M plus? I'm tired of giving 'leaders' in the Pac-10 a pass from the top on down.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
FYI, Nicole Auerbach of The Athletic (paywall) has a great article up today on how the playoff committee to date has ignored the strength of the schedule (SOS) but must pay attention to SOS including the number of conference games played and the quality of the OOC schedule when choosing at large teams and seeding the 12-team playoff field come 2024. AMEN!
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Oregon Boasts PFF's 2 Highest Ranking Returning OL Members
PFF of all the ranking services 'gets it' when it comes to ranking CFB players. Every snap for every G5/P5 player nationwide is reviewed by PFF and evaluated. IMO, PFF rankings mean far more than the Joe Moore 'popularity award' for best OL and other similar college awards. Michigan has won the Joe back-to-back and is 0-2 in the CFB playoff.
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Five Items to Know About Oregon's Opponent, Oral Roberts
Here's one more. Riviera Country Club, although he had a house on a hill, next door to member, Mel Brooks' home, bordering the golf course, along with Bel-Aire Country Club and LA Country Club, refused to accept Oral Roberts as a member. I'm rooting for Ducks baseball to treat the eponymously named school in the same fashion.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
Man, I hate to bring this up BUT, USC and the entire B1G were CFB hugely watched when the B1G schedule was shown and debated on the B1G Network. A Network that is 61% owned by FOX and has 5 x plus the number of subscribers that Larry's Loser Network has. And the B1G staying at 9 conference games means that the B1G took none of the grief that the SEC received (and the ACC should receive) for playing 8 conference games in 2024 in a 16-team conference. In the flex B1G schedule coming in 2024, USC has 1 permanent opponent, UCLA. This means that with Notre Dame on the schedule SC will have only 6 home games every other year. This season like last season Michigan has 8 home games. But this is negated by pulling down $65M a year in media money. Say what you like but this kind of publicity is recruiting gold for USC and even for UCLA. 2 of the Ducks games at least, Portland State and Hawaii will be broadcast on the Pac-12 Network this season. That means off-radar viewing for most of the nation. And the game at Texas Tech will be broadcast on FOX at the same time Bama is playing Texas on ESPN. I am more than willing to bet that College Game Day, which dwarfs the FOX Big Noon pregame broadcast when it comes to viewers, will be in Tuscaloosa for the pregame. In a terrific post on OBD Forum, Oregon football is shown to be worth $3M a game. Including a bowl game, this equates to $39M a season and more if Oregon plays for a conference championship and makes the playoff which will be easier to do when the 12-team playoff field arrives in 2024. But media money makes up less than half of what Oregon football and its national and international brand bring in every season. Sales of merchandise are not helped by scheduling B12 games OOC. Here is one Pac-10 team's, ASU, future games vs. the SEC 2024 - Mississippi State/ 2025 - at Mississippi State 2026 - at A+M/ 2027 - vs A+M 2028 - Florida 2029 - at LSU/ 2030 - vs LSU 2031 - at Florida 2032 - Texas 2033/ - 2034 at Texas These are the games that move the viewership needle. That will bring a lot of exposure to a Pac-10 program that on the field can't carry Oregon's nether elastic equipment. With the 2 LA schools gone in 2024, these are the kind of games, along with quality B1G opponents (Wisconsin plays in Pullman in 2023!) that Oregon must schedule. Six years against B12 teams before Michigan State shows up on the schedule is simply a dollars-and-cents scheduling mistake. (I realize I am repeating myself here but IMO OOC scheduling is critical for brand awareness.) It seems to me that the Oregon AD and the Oregon SID believe that Oregon will simply sell itself. Imagine if Phil Knight had taken the same approach and not signed on Michael Jordan. USC B1G games will be drawing far more eyeballs than Pac-10 games. And reiterating, this does matter when it comes to recruiting. Hopefully, a deal with Apple/Amazon will lead to better worldwide viewing numbers for Oregon but this will take time to develop. And, as we are all painfully aware the details of the new Pac media deal are unknown. So yes, SC will have a tough B1G row to hoe but it will be in the national spotlight, featured on linear TV and on a viable conference network, and bringing down big bucks. So, if $3M a game is a correct valuation although I want Oregon to stay in the Pac and not abandon Oregon State if the B1G/FOX comes with an offer of $45M to $50M now in 5 years from now (adjusted for inflation,) in annual media money Oregon best avoid Horace Greely's advice and head East. Bashing SC is LOL fun, but the B1G media exposure and the B1G money will spend.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
1 game, yes. But travel to the Left Coast is the reason that Ohio State paid $500K to buy out of the 2024/25 home and home series with Washington. Thereby, hosing over UW and diminishing Pac-10 OOC competition.
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College Football News - AP Poll and Bowl Game Projections
My thoughts, FWIW. Six Pac-12 teams are ranked. Half of the conference. 4 USC - overrated. I'm not convinced that with Grinch as the DC that SC will ever play good enough D to reach the Final 4 and starting in 2024, to win the B1G. 9 UW - Yes, UW gets Utah and Oregon in Seattle but has to play USC in LA. 10 Utah - looking at the schedule, Utah is overrated. Florida in Salt Lake and Baylor in Waco out-of-conference (OOC.) At UW and USC and Oregon at home. And a big question mark regarding the health of Rising. 13. Oregon - Based on the Blue Chip Roster ranking and this being Coach Lanning's 2nd season and with Nix back, the Ducks IMO should be the top or second-ranked team in the Pac-12. 19. Oregon State - With 3 G5 opponents OOC and playing UCLA, Utah, and Washington in Corvallis and missing USC, the Beavers could well be underrated. Is DJU the answer at QB? 24. UCLA - Squishy soft OOC schedule and one of the easiest slates in the conference. But will it be enough to get UCLA into the top 25? I see the Beavers taking down the Bruins in Corvallis, National Question Marks. 7 FSU - 12 Clemson - FSU opens with LSU and has to trip to Clemson. I see Clemson, with Notre Dame also playing in Clemson, winning the ACC. FSU will go bowling but in many respects, FSU is this season's 2022 Texas A+M. 5 Ohio State - 2 Michigan - I know the game is in Ann Arbor and I know Ohio State will have a new QB throwing to the best WR crew in CFB but Michigan plays top 10 Penn State in Happy Valley and Ohio State gets PSU at home. Ohio State has the far harder OOC schedule playing at Notre Dame but I think that the Buckeyes win in Ann Arbor and win the B1G title. 3 Alabama - 6 LSU - Yes, LSU plays in Tuscaloosa but this is Brian Kelly's 2nd season and LSU returns the SEC's best starting QB in Daniels. If Quinn Ewers can stay on the field for 4Qs Texas will give Bama a battle in Tuscaloosa. 23 Tulane is the highest-ranked G5 team, the presumptive AAC champ, and is projected to go back-to-back in NY6 Bowl appearances. My Final 4 - (again, FWIW) Rose Bowl - 2. Ohio State vs. 3. LSU Sugar Bowl - 1. Georgia vs 4. Clemson With 5 and often 6 teams ranked in the preseason and playing 9 conference games, I do not see a Pac-12 team finishing with fewer than 2 losses.