AnotherOD

Oregon 49-9 2 TOs 4 Sacks 303 Yards

Has to still be Kevin Willhite (1982), no?

Well said. Though some might argue UCLA having Sam Gilbert and a lucrative NIL program as early as 1964 helped too 🙂🙂

Cristobal's 2020 class. It still has 5 guys in year six of college ball: • Robbie Ashford (Wake Forest) • Kris Hudson (Arizona) • Justin Flowe (UNLV) • Jaylan Jeffers (UCLA) • Jonathan Denis (Louisiana Tech) Very mixed results for a class ranked #14: Noah Sewell seems to be doing well with the Bears, TJ Bass is a backup OG for Dallas, Harper and Manning were contributors at Oregon, I think Bennett Williams is playing in Canada. I think like 17 out of the 22 commits either transferred or washed out.

"In what capitalist enterprise does an entity that invests more money in its product and receives a better return than those that invest less agree to split its share equally with less successful competitors? Where and when this model has been tried out, entire economies have failed." I've always viewed team sports a bit differently. When you go full capitalism, you tend to end up with a few big winners capturing the market and maybe a few small niche or bargain brands gobbling the crumbs. Sports at its root is about competition and if that is nearly destroyed by allowing a few top schools have insurmountable resources, the other 120 schools will become the Washington Generals. With college sports people pay to enjoy that competition. With a stapler, no one is paying to enjoy the stapler manufacturing companies battle it out to see who can build the best stapler, they just want their papers stapled together dependably as cheaply as possible. Under Riley, Oregon State had some good teams. They actually were even decent as recent as 2022. Excessive media influence, NIL, and the portal have reduced Oregon State to a unwinnable game against Oregon next week. I mean, its nearly impossible to come up with a scenario Oregon loses this game. Just keep give more resources to the top teams and college football is going to be 8 Ohio States, 8 Miamis, and 120 Wake Forests. An alternative is recognizing top teams already have a huge advantage and work towards "a rising tide lifting all boats". NFL style. The top college football programs seem to be doing fine right now. Everyone else? Go check out the Oklahoma State forum and see what they are thinking their next decade is going to look like. With no balanced ownership, no true partnership with the players, or meaningful governing bodies, its easy to see the tendency for a money grab.

It would have been more than just an amazing block. On Nov 17, 2012, Dakorien would have been 5! (Sorry couldn't resist) 🙂🙂

I am sure there will still be a few growing pains here and there. I am more worried that DM is going to be so good (with a so far mixed predicted NFL QB draft class) that the NFL is going to come hard at him. Before the first snap, a good season and a return for 2026 seemed a possibility. Already it seems much less likely.

Was Skattebo for Dillingham as Penix was for DeBoer?

I guess this goes pretty deep into the "holding a small grudge" category; but, haven't been a huge Kirk Ferentz fan since 2004. Bellotti and staff went all out recruiting that year. For the time, Oregon really pulled out all the stops, pursuing top recruits all over the country, big "recruiting weekends" (I think this was the year Oregon using the private jet for recruits became a thing). Oregon went on to finish #12 in the country largely behind the De La Salle group, a huge success at the time; but, it was in on a number of top kids that would have really caused a stir if Oregon landed them (I am remembering names like Marshawn Lynch, Phillip Mbakogu, Chilo Rachael). Well, Oregon had gone all the way to Iowa and gotten interest from consensus five star LB Kyle "Bonecrusher" Williams and another highly rated recruit (I am thinking DL Ryan Bain). Prior to LOI day, Oregon was producing a bit of a buzz in the college football world, being in on so many top kids. A journalist even contacted Ferentz and he went on record in an interview saying something pretty close to (this is a paraphrase): "I don't know what they are doing, coming all the way out here talking to "our" kids, wish we had that kind of money to burn". Now this was before either kid had committed. "Our kids" just meant kids from the state of Iowa. Like it was crazy for any program outside of the "blue bloods" to even dream of recruiting nationally. Now, given what happened with "Bonecrusher" (to this day listed as Iowa's highest all time rated recruit), a series of violent assaults in 2006 that landed him 37 years in prison, maybe it's time to forgive Kirk? To Kirk, it appears Oregon "thinking big" in recruiting was apparently almost absurd. That decision seems to have worked out ok for Oregon.

Oregon 44-9 1 TO 4 Sacks 281 Passing Yards

Benson certainly could be a huge wild card, that might pay unexpected dividends this year (and possibly even next if he gets his second JUCO season back). Lily Crane even wrote an article for SI.com called: "Oregon Duck's Malik Benson: One of College Football's Most Overlooked Players?" For those unfamiliar, Benson played every game for two season for JUCO powerhouse Hutchinson CC in Kansas. He caught 97 passes for 2,152 yards and 21 TDs there, and emerged as the #1 overall JUCO recruit and a mid four star committing to Alabama. His first year there he played in all 14 games but only ended up with 13 catches for 162 yards and 1 TD in a role as sometimes WR3. He transferred to FSU, presumably looking for a bigger role, then hurt his foot in their Spring game. From there he played in all 12 games of FSU's unhappy 2-10 campaign. He was their second leading WR with 25 catches for 311 yards and 1 TD (with the highest per target success rate, second highest yards per target, and second highest explosiveness rate among their WRs). As Solar points out, he ran a blazing 10.4 in high school and I've found a couple places giving him praise for "polished route running". Other reports have used: "explosive", "a slippery open field runner", "good balance and the ability to break tackles", and "a special athlete with major big-play ability". His somewhat limited impact so far at the FBS level? Described as being behind Jermaine Burton (Cincinnati) and Isiah Bond (Cleveland) at Alabama (and possibly not the best fit for the offense Alabama was running for Milroe); and, just being caught up in everything going wrong at FSU. I also found one note from FSU in 2024 (for whatever it is worth), similar to what was sometimes expressed in regards to Evan Stewart last year, that he often appeared on film to break open in the deep field, but for whatever reason, seldom received a target.

I just read over on Yahoo Sport's Misery index (Dan Wolken) describe DeBoer's huge 2023 season at Washington as: (an) "Entire season played on the knife’s edge with a series of Houdini-esque escapes thanks to the brilliance of quarterback Michael Penix."

"How wonderful to see Bama go down. I’m still flummoxed as to why DeBoer is struggling there." Could it be as simple as Penix? The right guy in the right system at the right time? Some success with Haener in 2021 and McMaryon in 2018 but not quite like Penix. I was a bit surprised to see DeBoer go with Simpson (an Alabama recruit) rather than Mack (from UW) or Keelon Russell (five star and national Gatorade player of the year and DeBoer recruit). If he is gonna go down, he might as well do so with one of his guys running his system. I guess Simpson was not terrible but a bit of a "mixed bag" in the FSU game.

Taco Dowler quietly having a good day. Up to 7 catches for 59 (8.4 ypc).

Bedford (#77) banged up? Edit: he was in that drive.

Oregon 38-12 1 4 288

A unnecessary guide to the three minutes from the last scrimmage (starting about the 4:00 minute mark) shown in the video, for those of us looking for any bit of information to pour over from fall camp: • Dante Moore (#5) runs out to start the scrimmage • Dante Moore (#5) with what looks like about a 30+ yard strike down the sideline to Dakorien Moore (#1) covered tightly by Ify (#9) • Jordon Davison (#0) punches in a short TD run • Novosad (#16) throws a deep ball to Kasper (#3) that is knocked away in tight coverage by Finney (#4) • Novosad (#16) with a first down pass to Cooper Perry (#17). Somomon Davis (#15) in on the tackle • TD run in the corner by Jay Harris (#22) • Novosad (#16) to Kasper (#3) tackle by Offord (#14) for what looks like about 10 yards • "Mater Dei tackles Mater Dei", Davison (#0) tackled by Aydin Breland (#42) • Theineman (#31) tackles Kasper (#3) on a short pass, knocking ball away • Nifty screen to Dierre Hill (#23) for a TD • What looks like maybe a TE screen to Jamari Johnson (#9) who rumbles for what looks like a big gain. Douglas Utu (#55) out ahead blocking. Moore (#5) and Ponch (#72) excited on the sideline. Finney (#4) makes the final stop • LB Jerry Mixon (#54) makes a stop • Limar (#27) gets stopped for no gain then gets caught behind the line by (#55) Matthew Johnson right after getting the hand-off • Moore (#5) completes about a 10 yard pass to McClellan (#11) • Moore (#5) completes about a 10 yard TD to Bryant (#2) who toe-taps in the back of the endzone • Novosad (#16) completes what looks like about a 20 yard completion to J.Johnson (#9) who makes a great grab staying in-bounds • Novosad (#16) completes about a 10 yard TD pass to Kasper (#3) over being blanked by Offord (#14) right on the endzone sideline • Aaron Flowers (#21) blankets then knocks away a Moore (#5) pass to Sadiq (#18) in the endzone in single covetage • Moore (#5) comes back to Sadiq (#18) for the TD fitting a pass between 3 Duck defenders in Ify (#7), Mixon (#54), and I think Mothudi (#33) • Lanning and Pregnon (#75) end the scrimmage with some positive words

Did not realize Oregon's opening opponent (Montana State) beat UT Martin (Oklahoma State's opening opponent) in the second round of the FCS playoffs last year 49-17 (gave me a small "wait what?" kind of moment). It looks like 27-7 just going final. Early returns seem to be Oklahoma State "has not looked great tonight" and been "kinda meh". 360 yards of offense from Oklahoma State (232 passing, 128 rushing, 5.0 yards per play, 20 first downs, 0 turnovers, 225 yards allowed on defense).

"There are a lot of reasons to suspect that the 2025 Oregon Ducks offensive line will not be as effective as recent units. There are some reasons for optimism though. The staff has shown that if a combination on the line isn’t working, they are willing to make changes. I would not be surprised if we see three transfers play against Montana state, but that they re-shuffle to play only one or two by the time they head to Penn State" This is the kind of stuff that I'm not crazy about. It pretty much says, "Well, I guess we don't know as much as the coaches, but, well, we probably do, so at least when they realize we were correct, at least they have shown the willingness to be flexible to do what we knew was best." Not a huge fan, especially when one side is two guys relying on spreadsheets and the other a highly paid, experienced group of coaches who see the players practice daily. 🫤

Overall, I tend to enjoy the detail from the two guys over at ATQ. First of all, they tend to provide video to support their observations; and, that allows one to decide for themselves their level of agreement. Second, they seem to take care in collecting data and comparing it with historical numbers and trends. However, I sometimes feel they get a bit too into their own data and how they apply it. They have been pretty pessimistic about the 2025 Duck OL (and World in particular). I think in another recent article they suggested the best possible use of World (this single year the Ducks have him) would be for him to sit out the season and use it to get additional time learning the Duck system (to lessen their "transfer effect"), and adding more muscle (his "anchoring issues"), and to instead have him start playing in late December for the playoffs. Instead they suggest using rSO Genorris Wilson at LT (who I had hoped we would have heard more about in fall camp but that has been pretty quiet), who has I guess graded out ok so far; but, with only 50 career (mostly) garbage time snaps since high school, what does that really mean? The article even suggests it might be fair to pencil him in as "about an average FBS LT if thrown in this year" Wait, we know that exactly how? Did the coaches know that when they went out and got two portal OT? I appreciate having the guts to throw out such predictions if one really believes it (who knows maybe the OL will be the huge topic of conversation the first month of the season or longer); but, I'll have to go with the coaches and their evaluations on this one -- which by almost all accounts seem to an OL plan they are cautiously optimistic about that includes World -- rather than ATQ data. Geoff Schwartz also did a pretty deep film dive on World and seemed to think most of the problems that ATQ dinged World for were correctable. I am comfortable saying Geoff knows some OL. Further, I'm willing to give World a bump for not having to play for a Nevada team, 7-30 during his time there (getting regularly blasted in the Mountain West by the likes of Air Force, Utah State, and Hawaii). It wouldn't surprise me to see a guy lose a bit of focus, have a few bad reps, and be at times possibly a bit frustrated in that environment. The 4-8 Ducks squad in 2016 likely had some good guys put up some at times not so great reps on film getting blasted all season.

Not related to Leavitt except maybe as "bad news for former Ducks", a list of players released today on NFL cut down day: Pharaoh Brown - Miami Thomas Graham - Chicago Chase Cota - Cleveland Brandon Johnson - Philadelphia Casey Rogers - Buffalo Stephen Jones - Pittsburg Patrick Herbert - Jacksonville Jabbar Muhammed - Jacksonville Traeshon Holden - Dallas Royce Freeman - Chicago Tysheem Johnson - Chicago Jake Hanson - Atlanta Dontae Manning - Atlanta Shane Lemieux - NO Trikweze Bridges - Carolina Kristian Williams - Denver Kahlef Hailassie - Minneaota Bradyn Swinson - NE

Sagarin last year rated the top FCS teams at: #37 South Dakota State #45 Montana State #68 South Dakota #91 UC Davis #112 Montana #117 Idaho Do I see this as maybe a bit high, especially if they had to play a full FBS schedule? Possibly. However, the top FCS programs somewhere between maybe 50 to 80? I certainly would listen to an argument. If Montana State ends up a top 4 FCS team this year, arguably they rate as an opponent competitive with the likes of the 2024 versions of: Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Cal, Syracuse, etc. Certainly show up and play poorly, they likely will hang around. Hang around long enough and catch a few breaks, possibly a real problem. It should be fine, I don't think Oregon has ever lost to an FCS opponent at Autzen, even in the down years. However, if one wanted to pull up the 2004 loss opening the season at Autzen to 3-8 Indiana? That was a Duck squad with some dudes: Haloti Ngata, Devan Long, Anthony Trucks, Kellen Clemens, Demetrius Williams, Tim Day, Adam Snyder, Enoka Lucas, Terrence Whitehead, and others. That Indiana team didn't have a single NFL draft pick that year (and had one, a WR in the third round, the next year).

Ryan Pellum lands at Deleware State. I had forgotten DeSean Jackson taking over as HC there.

I've read in a couple places the last couple days something to the effect of "another Oregon 5 star bust"; and, wondering where exactly this is coming from? I think Oregon has done pretty well with 5 stars? Leaving out Dickey, in the "recruiting ratings era", I count 13 "consensus" 5 stars. As referenced above, a little over 50% get drafted? I'm seeing 62% at Oregon (with perhaps one * of course). Out of the 13, I'd say 7 were very good or better players who were drafted. Haloti Ngata Johnathan Stewart Arik Armstead Josh Conerly Jr. Kayvon Thibodeaux DAT Noah Sewell Number 8 is the * Lache Seastrunk I'd say most say "bust" and I get it; but, he of course was in the middle of the Lyles thing while at Oregon (which kind of ended it before it started). After transferring to Baylor, in two seasons went 289 carries for 2,189 yards and 18 TDs at 7.6 yards per carry. Left a season early and was drafted in the 6th round by Washington. The next 3 likely go down as "busts" given their ranking. Cameron Colvin: injuries of course, though seemed to finally be on track his last year at Oregon before the ankle injury at WSU, but I get it Thomas Tyner: I've always thought had some very solid contributions at Oregon prior to the shoulder injury but for a 5 star I get it Dontae Manning: became a solid contributor at Oregon but I'd imagine most would say closer to "bust" for a 5 star never breaking through. Manning actually played in 52 games at Oregon with 1,161 snaps. Draft Buzz reported a 65.5 QB rating when targeted as a junior and 64.9 as a senior, which actually is pretty good. Tore off a 4.26 forty at his Pro Day with a 39.5 in vertical and 10.06 broad jump and signed a UFA contract with Atlanta Not much to add for the final 2. Canton Kaumatule Justin Flowe 13 guys, 8 NFL draft picks, one solid contributor and UFA, two pulled down at least in part to injuries, and only 2 clear "busts"? Seems solid.

Interesting RP hasn't been adjusted to the portal era? Not exactly sure how it is adjusted; but, if you look at RP for the Duck OL you see 1 player with 15 career starts However, the projected unit has 138 FBS starts and a collective 21 years inside college football programs. Over 100 career starts and an average of over 4 years of experience per starter are both very positive numbers. Hughes has 523 carries and 2,779 yards the last two years at Tulane. Jordan James finished his career at Oregon with 386 carries. Dillon Theineman had 210 tackles and 6 ints his last 2 years at Purdue. Theran Johnson 25 starts at NW. Oregon is going to be running a lot of young guy out there but an RP of 5 seems wildly off, even if technically accurate.