Duck Fan 76

So we've got some idea what Oregon's new defense is going to look like but KD's offense is still a bit of guess work. Here is the interview KD gave after F.S. lost to Clemson 30-20. Hanging 20 points on Clemson even in a down year (if you can call a 4th place finish down) isn't an easy accomplishment. For comparison Wake Forrest scored the most against Clemson with 27 points. Georgia's offense (admittedly game 1) scored 10 points on Clemson. The major issues that KD identified were not putting themselves in a position to get 3rd down conversions or killing drives with penalties. 3rd and long against a great defense is pretty much a statistical recipe for poor offensive production. As he says, playing a top tier defense with an explosive offense you are only going to get 1-2 explosive plays, the rest you must earn. Every other time the defense is just too talented and too well coached to give up the big plays. I think there's a few hints in the interview where he talks about how he schemed Clemson as to what Oregon's game plan against Georgia might look like. For Oregon to make this a GAME, Oregon needs to pass down the field very very VERY well. We need to hit receivers in the cross and post pattern with decent yards after the catch. If Oregon attempts to establish the power run to open up the pass they will run straight into Georgia's teeth and we will not cover. The problem is obviously the pass rush with disguised looks, how does Oregon get to check 2 let alone check 4? The disguised pressure will come and it just will not get picked up every time. I don't think the screen or wheel route is the answer, Georgia tackles too well and they are too well coached for that. If Bo is looking to elevate his stock for playing on Sunday's he needs to do it on this Saturday. He has the physical gifts to recognize the unblocked pressure and find that forward running lane. He wont pick up 15 against the Mint but he will reliably translate -3 to +3. 3rd and 4 is generally a better situation than 3rd and 13.

I do agree. If Georgia scores 27 or under then then either Georgia's offense sputtered or Oregon's defense overperformed. If Oregon scores 24 then either Georgia's defense sputtered or Oregon's offense overperformed. The narrative that effects the polls will have more to do with the look and feel of the game (eye test for analysts and announcers).

Sorry I'm a math guy so I have to quibble slightly on "the Ducks would do well to cover". The spread is actually set as a 50/50 mark for the betting houses. Equal odds of covering or not. That's why betting on the spread exists instead of just the Moneyline (straight up bet on win or lose). If you look here you will see that betting on Oregon to beat the 16.5 point spread pays out -108 (92.5%) and betting on Georgia to make the spread pays out -112 (89.2%). The payouts fluctuate based on the betting volume to ensure the house has a safe risk profile incase the line is soft. The money line indeed has Oregon winning at +550 (550% return) and Georgia winning at -800 (12.5% return), so Georgia is very much the "safe bet" to win this game. In case you are wondering Vegas has the predicted score at Georgia 34 - Oregon 17. Using the nominal score if Oregon gets a pick-six off one Georgia scoring drive the expected final score would then be Georgia 27 - Oregon 24. Picks for a TD are however rare events... Going the other way a Georgia pick-six makes the expected score Georgia 41 - Oregon 10. Too bad McKinley went to the NFL.

Very very true, the devil is in the details and the calls can get a bit iffy. Most fans don't know when it's legal. The hope is that Oregon's receiver's are taught to cause a DB to drop half a step without any contact. That's usually all you need across the middle. Gridiron Glossary: Rub Route | Third Down Draw THIRDDOWNDRAW.COM A combination of pass routes where one receiver's route is designed to cause him to run into the defender guarding another receiver. https://youtu.be/txjC9DnM5oA?start=429s&?end=443s...

I did read that when his 2021 completion percentage is adjusted for a teams average number of drops it's in the high 60's. That being said he doesn't do touch passes well and instead will put some heat on screens. He's more accurate across the middle than down the side lines as well. I expect Oregon when passing to use crossing routes with a rub on the defender this Saturday.

Georgia football: 3 reasons Oregon could shock the Bulldogs WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM It's not LIKELY, mind you, but we're here to tell you that it wouldn't be an earth-shaking upset. I generally agree with the articles premise, the odds (literally) are against the Ducks on Saturday but if Oregon players execute this game will be a GAME! Coach Smart will have Georgia ready for this game, as ready as any team can be for game 1. On that note Georgia players have mentioned that it's a little weird watching game film for four different schools to get ready. Transfer portal = week 1 chaos!

Oregon's solution? Use NIL in a legitimate (and legal) way but focus on developing players to play in the NFL. We have 1! player from last years class still on an NFL roster right now...

I would add one more item, if the program is going to survive in the upcoming cash grab of CFB then Excitement! MUST be the brand for Oregon. Those young kids watching Oregon around the country love Oregon football because of that excitement. They dream of breaking those touchdowns through the second level and having foot races with safeties. We get flack about the constant jersey and helmet theater but let me tell you that stuff is popular with kids. Who cares what the 30+ crowd thinks of the Oregon brand, we aren't recruiting them and we aren't selling shoes to them. I would love to see DL build the Oregon brand on three pillars 1) Tough, smart defense 2) Exciting, innovative offense 3) Players with character that talk up how much they really enjoy playing at Oregon If we get those three pillars then our brand will be exciting to watch. Specifically kids will watch, advertisers will sell products, Oregon gets TV contracts and Oregon's players will tell a story to recruits that keeps them coming to Oregon. As much as I adore the days when CFB wasn't business, it is now. We should own the fact that Oregon starting a facilities arms race fed that as much anything else in CFB.

I saw some plays last year that raised my eyebrows more than a bit so I think there's reason to question the assumptions on a plug and play O-line. Coach Klemm (who I greatly respect) has the guys now and he is seemingly introducing some scheme shifts (with KD) that focus a bit more on the NFL style of O-line play. He discusses it below at 6:15 Bottom line, what I saw last year wasn't guys messing up an assignment so much as guys that struggled to get the right kind of push and open holes when it counted. His comments on lateral speed advantage are an apt criticism of PAC-12 playstyle. I'm hoping that Klemm has improved their technique to the point that Georgia's D-line is going to get a bit of a surprise Saturday with Oregon's run game.

Great grab! lol, in fairness to Tosh the spread mixed with the hurry up was a nightmare for defenses and they were pretty desperate to do anything to stop Oregon from hanging 70 points on them.

Agreed, Alabama is a storied CFB powerhouse but I meant literally in the 10 years before Saban (2007). Alabama AP finishes 1996-2006 (11th, NR, NR, 8th, 21st, NR, 11th, NR, NR, 8th, NR). Alabama AP finishes 2007-2021 (NR, 6th, 1st, 10th, 1st, 1st, 7th, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 8th, 1st, 2nd). Oregon wants to be Alabama, not Washington.

Excellent article! The top three of that talent ranking all have something in common, they consistently turn those rosters into wins! That's why they are THE preeminent teams in CFB. We don't have to beat Georgia to have a great season but Oregon DOES need to show that it's developing its talent and executing on the field. For a CFB program to be considered a success it needs to: 1) Develop its current talent 2) Recruit at a high level 3) Stay consistent and execute on the field Those three elements add up to wins, and most importantly quality wins. With consistent quality wins comes the playoffs and the truth is knocking one of the big three out in the championship is a BIG BIG deal. Consider just how long Georgia has been recruiting, developing and executing at a high level and they had to wait till just last year to get the big W. So what constitutes an Oregon win on Saturday? Talented recruits and players across the country seeing Oregon play above it's average star ranking and causing Georgia to have to work for the W. That's not a moral victory, that's the first battle in what hopefully is staff continuity here at Oregon. We can't continue to be a coaching stepping stones to "dream schools". We need Oregon to be the coaching dream school. Again I'm not arguing for moral victories here but in the current era of media dominated CFB Oregon needs to fight to be a "dream school" for coaches and players. Think about this for a second, what are SEC players going to think if Oregon makes Bo look like a top tier QB against Georgia? What does that do for Oregon in the transfer portal and in recruiting through the south? What does a dominate Oregon defense do for recruiting lineman in the SEC's backyard? I think Oregon will show very well against Georgia but the goal here is the real and perceived program trajectory. Not so? What did Alabama look like in the decade before Saban?

Nice! thanks for the correction.

I can't wait to read that one! If we can't run RPO doesn't that put us in a serious jam since KD is in the Norvell lineage?

Draw RPO maybe? They are gonna be hot to put Bo on his butt. Wildcat in obvious running situations. Like you said, I guess we will find out when everyone else does what the Oregon run attack looks like. RPO is kinda tricky with shifty defenses and Georgia is super shifty.

Excellent point, he definitely threw some poor balls but I just didn't feel that was was what kept Auburn out of the game. If anything their abysmal run game against an amazing Georgia defense was the key to their loss. What do you think the key to Oregon having success on the run will be? They don't have the mobile line like Alabama and I don't think size will be critical given how powerful the Georgia front is. I'm thinking Oregon's run game needs some scheme help to be effective on Saturday. It would be nice if KD kept some of the new run attack under wraps and can surprise Georgia early.

There's always plan "C" and we tell everyone Bo hit up the tanning beds...

I agree there is plenty of reason to be cautious with Bo but the film I watch tells me to be suspicious of the Auburn/SEC fan narrative. Here's an article written after Auburn's lopsided loss to Georgia last year. Bo Nix taking brunt of Auburn fan criticism after lopsided Georgia loss WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM Bo Nix was held to minus-16 rushing yards by Georgia's vaunted defense. BTW, the meanest tweet was definitely from Q: "If Bo Nix hadn’t accidentally beaten Oregon his freshman year he’d be selling McChickens right now". Here is the 11 minute highlight video of Georgia at Auburn last year. Georgia had 231 passing yards and 201 rushing. Auburn had 272 passing yards and 46 rushing. Bo's interception bounced off his receivers facemask for the pick. To me the key statistic (If there even is such a thing) was Bennet had a 66.7% completion rate with 11 yards per pass and Bo had a 55.8% completion rate for 6 yards per pass. For the Oregon game watch out for the Georgia run game to setup the play-action over the top. If Oregon key's on the run and our DB's bite on play-action there will be plenty of Georgia big plays. Those big plays get the offense in a catchup mode forcing bad throws and demoralizes players. Georgia is going to want to establish a 2:1 ratio of run plays to pass plays. Oregon's defense (and offense) needs to push Georgia out of that and into having to be aggressive with it's passing game to capitalize on its shifty blitz schemes. If Oregon's defense can do that, expect the wheels to come off the Georgia offense. Here is the highlights of the SEC championship last year and Georgia's only loss. Georgia had 340 passing yards and 109 rushing. Alabama had 421passing yards and 115 rushing. Bennet had a 60.4% completion rate with 7.1 yards per pass and Young had a 59.1% completion rate for 9.6 yards per pass. Bennet threw 2 legitimate interceptions. The first was in the third quarter when Georgia was down 17-31 and the second was a pick 6 early in the fourth. Alabama had 7 penalties for 85 yards, mostly pass interference. I'd like to see Oregon play clean but sometimes interference is a good way to stop those really big plays that can kill morale/momentum. Anybody know where the officiating team is coming in from? If it's SEC that could be an issue for Oregon as the SEC calls a slightly different game than the PAC. Let's hope it's the MAC.

Bryce Young is the real deal IMHO and Bama' is going to be playing hopping mad this year!

I'm not really a believer in summary football statistics but here are the summarized stats for Bo, some 2021 comparison QB's and some recruiting stats that I think tells a bit of the story of Bo at Auburn. Stats taken from https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/ Bo started at Auburn in: 2019 with a QB rating of 125, 377 attempts 57.6% 2542 yds, 16 TD’s and 6 int’s 2020 with a QB rating of 123.9, 357 attempts 59.9% 2415 yds, 12 TD’s and 7 int’s 2021 with a QB rating of 130, 323 attempts 61% 2294 yds, 11 TD’s and 3 int’s Stetson Benett: 2021 with a QB rating of 176.7, 287 attempts 64.5% 2862 yds, 29 TD’s and 7 int’s Bryce Young: 2021 with a QB rating of 167.5, 547 attempts 66.9% 4872 yds, 47 TD’s and 7 int’s Anthony Brown: 2021 with a QB rating of 141.0, 390 attempts 64.1% 2989 yds, 19 TD’s and 7 int’s The recent Gus Malzahn era at Auburn: 247 sports class recruiting rankings 2014 6th 2015 8th 2016 9th 2017 9th 2018 12th 2019 13th 2020 8th 2021 18th Auburn season outcome 2016 8-5 AP preseason NR AP finish 24th 2017 10-4 AP preseason 12th AP finish 10th 2018 8-5 AP preseason 9th AP finish NR 2019 9-4 AP preseason 16th AP finish 14th 2020 6-5 AP preseason 11th AP finish NR 2021 6-7 AP preseason NR AP finish NR When Bo started as a sophomore in 2019 the talented roster was ranked by 247 sports at 8, 9, 9, 12 (average rank 9.5). Auburn had a really good 2017 season and the media felt confident that Auburn in 2019 would be decent but not win the SEC and they ended up that way. 2020 is a bust by any measure but in 2021 Auburn had an average recruiting rank of 10.5 and the preseason poll had them not ranked and they ended up not ranked. Why would Auburn end up with a prediction of not ranked in 2021 with so much talent on the roster? Some of that is the gauntlet that is the SEC with Georgia and Alabama sitting atop the recruiting charts like they do. I think however Auburn was/is a serial underperformer and the reality is the Auburn teams weren't developing the way they should based on roster talent. Was that Bo's fault as the QB or was that a much larger team development problem? I think if it was Bo, Malzahn would have sat him pretty early but he clearly was their best option to win for the majority of the season. I think we will find out next Saturday if Bo was ultimately a failed recruit or if he was recruited into a failed system. If Ty starts then DL saw some serious deficits in Bo that weren't offset by live game experience. if Bo starts then DL has had the Spring and Fall to play catchup on developing him and likely deprogramming some bad football that Auburn was teaching. What say the OBDF?

Kirby Smart not comfortable with Oregon opener, ‘expect the unexpected’ WWW.DAWGNATION.COM ATHENS — Kirby Smart said it has been a good fall camp for his Georgia Bulldogs, but that doesn’t mean he will be comfortable entering the Oregon game. That's a bold prediction for sure. Georgia still has the the inside track in my opinion, they simply get to play less perfect to beat Oregon. However as the article above indicates Oregon can beat Georgia and early games get wacky. I hold to my game prediction, close going in for the half. If DL makes the counter adjustments and plays aggressive on both sides of the ball that keeps Bo in a rythm and Oregon wins the game.

I can't wait until the LA sports media starts writing about how amazing USC is in the BIG and forgets to even mention Ohio State. They must put something in the water in LA that makes the writers delusional. I really think USC is going to be Nebraska part deux for the Big. Great we added some history but when are you guys going to win games again? Hope all those local TV ads are worth every penny for them. I honestly doubt USCs defense will get them anywhere near the PAC championship, it's most likely Utah vs Oregon. Then again since it's now based on ratings an overated USC could edge out a 2 or 3 loss Utah and we could face them. If we do see them I would expect DL to put on a spectacle as a "see ya" statement for the BCS selection.

Great read! The Sewell family is class! I'm hoping Noah has a special special season, not just for the Ducks but for him. He deserves the absolute best.

Awesome article! I 100% agree that Oregon's defense will be focused on limiting the run production and containing an amazing TE set. That will be a tall order but I believe Oregon gets it done with amazing talent and superior scheming. DL has the advantage since he knows Smart AND Georgia's players. Oregon's offensive production against an amazing Georgia defense is the open question. If Bo plays disciplined patient football I believe Oregon's weapons and DLs understanding of the Georgia defense gives us the edge. No pressure Bo, just make good decisions. You don't have to be the best athlete on this field to win.

I had a number of similar thoughts crossing multiple threads so I thought I might throw them down and see what you all think. The Georgia game is winnable by Oregon! There's a few reasons I believe this other than the "any given Saturday" rule but the main reason is last years win at Ohio State. Last years win showed that Oregon's 1s are as good as anybody in CFB. We have slick Willie and MC to thank for that. There's good reason to have some hard feelings but we should acknowledge those two head coaches recently made this talent level possible. It's been a long time building the program and getting here has been hard fought but here we are. We have all the pieces for the National Championship that Phil has been aiming us at. We are not done growing and CFB isn't static but there aren't any excuses in the current period. The expectation is that Oregon competes for a national championship most years. That being said the Georgia game favors Georgia if we look at the rosters and last years performances. Utah showed us that we can't recruit our way to a national championship. The talented pieces need to come together so that the combination is more than the sum of individual pieces. What I've learned in the off-season is that the coaching staff has what it takes to put together an Oregon TEAM. They are in the process of doing so and we will know what this TEAMs potential is by game three. Oregon will not be perfect in game 1 but neither will Georgia. Oregon can win the game but that isn't the season. Oregon can win the PAC but that isn't the season. A successful season is DLs staff going one step further and fielding a TEAM that carries the brand of Oregon football. What I want is Oregon football to play at their potential. There in lies the rub. CFB has plenty of talented rosters but there's only a few that reach their actual potential. It's rare to come together and gel like that. I can accept an Oregon TEAM that competes and looses by the numbers against an Alabama. For me the season is an Oregon TEAM that really plays the game. A loosing season looks like last years Utah game. So two weeks out I'm an excited season ticket holder ready to cheer on Oregon rain or shine. Thankfully it only ever rains touchdowns in Autzen.