Duck Fan 76

As we've been discussing at length in the forum, the biggest question for next year is the QB position. I agree we will fill in the holes on the line. Bo's abilities to run, throw and make reads are absolutely integral to every play either directly or by forcing the defense to limit their aggressiveness. Oregon needs an exceptional QB helming this offense for the offense to do what it does.

Here are the numbers by class: Senior - 17 (12 transfers) Junior - 15 (4 transfers) RS Sophomore - 1 (Josh Delgado, WR) Sophomore - 41 (9 transfers) RS Freshman - 24 (2 transfers) Freshman - 28 It's a pretty young team but we are definitely going to lose some playmakers to the NFL and end of eligibility. One important point is look at how many of those seniors are transfers, 70%. Oregon has a next man up mentality and next years roster will still be very talented and with a few true freshman impact makers and the transfer portal I'm sure they will fill the holes. We are however likely to regress at QB as Bo is playing at an absolute elite level and that has serious impact in games as QB is THE most important position on the offense. Here is the breakdown of seniors by position Pos Tot Srs Percent DB 27 2 7% DE 3 0 0% DL 9 1 11% DT 4 1 25% ILB 9 1 11% OLB 8 1 13% LS 2 1 50% OL 18 4 22% QB 5 1 20% RB 11 0 0% TE 8 1 13% WR 15 3 20% K 3 0 0% P 3 1 33% The offensive starters we are going to lose are: Bo Nix, QB Chase Cota, WR T.J. Bass, LT Alex Forsyth, Ctr Ryan Walk, RG Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu, RT Karsten Battles, LS Barry Adams, Punter The defensive starters: Jordan Riley, NT DJ Johnson, Edge Bennett Williams, DB There is a distinct possibility of Noah Sewell and Christian Gonzales going early in the draft as well. For the O-line the #2s replacing the 4 seniors are 2 freshmen a sophomore and a junior. So the O-line will get younger with only Dawson Jaramillo stepping into a starting role as a senior. They will be young but very talented.

The BCS era had computerized polls that included strength of schedule in the algorithm. It got a lot of heat and EVERY year the sports writers would predict the doomsday scenario of a worthy undefeated team iced out of the championship. The controversy gave way to the 4 team playoff to make sure the actual best team in CFB would be certain to get into the playoff to prove their case. Nobody honestly cared about 2-4, it was about ensuring the actual best team would get in and beat everyone else. Now the controversy of the 4 team system is giving way to the 12 team system... more games, more broadcasts, more money. The conference championships are a good idea because it ensures rivalries get answered on the field. I'm good with the playoff but playing too many football games is really bad for the body and has ended NFL careers before they even started. I just don't think there is an actual perfect solution. I remember when the AP and Coaches polls picked the champions and they didn't always agree (looking at you UW & Miami). Hypothetical games played out in the minds of completely unbiased sports writers and the teams head coaches... I guess the general arc of history here is for improvement. So at least we got that going for us.

Great points in the article! It makes sense that DL believes in explosive plays BECAUSE he comes with a defensive background. Coaching at Georgia he had to stop quite a few extremely talented offenses and he knows better than most what gives a defense problems.

Here is a partial list of seniors: DJ Johnson (LB) Bennett Williams (DB) Bo Nix (the program lists him as a Sr) Chase Cota (WR) Popo Aumavae (DT) Ryan Walk (OL) TJ Bass (OL) Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu (OL) Alex Forsyth (OL) Cam McCormick (TE) Players we are likely to lose to the draft: Noah Sewell (LB) Christian Gonzalez (DB) Those are some serious playmakers on that list. We could see some of the names next year Popo, Noah and Gonzo but I wouldn't count on it. On a hopeful note Oregon currently has 27 players that came in from the transfer portal. I feel confidant we will get some serious talent that wants to come play for this program next year.

DL's coaching style is very much stay focused and keep working. He's personable but he doesn't need his players to worship him to be effective. His football IQ is off the charts and he sees all aspects of the game working in concert. He is absolutely built for the NFL but he hasn't been a coordinator at that level so he has to prove it prove it at the CFB level. We will eventually lose DL but I seriously doubt it will be to another college team. As for KD I agree that he wants to be a head coach some where but I think it would need to be a good opportunity to get him to jump. Auburn is a trap as long as Georgia and Alabama are recruiting like they are. At some point this year the coaches contracts will come up for negotiation and I would expect salaries to significantly increase across the board. I'm sure the AD has started those conversations with agents but the University needs the numbers from the PAC12 media rights to commit to contract numbers. Another key detail will be the playoff expansion and how the shares will work for bowl payouts in the conference. Once the media deal drops then the AD will probably begin pushing offers across the table and coaches will decide to stay or shop it. I think there will be bonus numbers in those contracts based on bowl payouts that could be sizeable. Either way I would expect DL to get a significant raise with lots of bonus opportunities and a sizeable increase to his coordinators/coaches/staff salaries. Keep in the back of your mind that Oregon is going to regress next year barring some major transfer portal acquisitions. The really hard work for the coaches will be the next few years as they have to build off what they've recruited and bring that product to the field. I definitely think they are up for the challenge.

I think your situational analysis is spot on. UW knows they have to score a lot of points to have a chance to win at Autzen, they will play to their strengths and take chances with their offense. They will also need take aways on defense to get the win so they will need to disguise their coverage extremely well. I would also expect they use hurry up to confuse Oregon's defensive sets and try to create broken coverage. On the Oregon side we have something that works so I think Oregon will come out doing exactly what we have been but the coaches will have thought through adjustments if UW is able to stop what we are doing. Oregon's pass defense is going to get tested and that will make the game feel ugly for us but in the end I think UW can't match Oregon's multiplicity and is going to be overpursuing on defense and will make enough mistakes on both sides of the ball to lose the game.

Check this analysis out. It calls into question the assumption that MC is the problem at Miami and actually indicates Miami has a player skill problem. Talent and athleticism is only one part of that equation. Player drive, facilities, and extra curriculars have an impact on players developing to their potential. Miami has something that Eugene, Athens, Columbus and Tuscaloosa don't have... ... Night Life!

I'm not sure MCs job is to win football games at Miami. His first year recruiting class is ranked #8. He can have losing seasons for three or four years and get fired for the next coach to come in and actually win games. It's a really really really expensive strategy since they paid Oregon $9mil to buy out his contract and $8mil for Manny Diaz and $8mil per year for Cristobal... That's a lot of Lamborghinis filled with Cocaine... On the plus side the combined salaries of the entire Oregon coaching staff was paid by the University of Miami this year with a bit more to spare. I feel like we should send them a thank you note.

Georgia is clearly #1 they are an absolute beast. Ohio St and Michigan both look good but they haven't had much competition outside of Penn St. We will see how this one turns out but their records and relative player talent level give the winner of this game the #2 spot. TCU gets the #3 spot because they are undefeated in a power five conference. TCU wasn't even ranked this season until week 6. They jumped Oregon week 8 because they are undefeated and leading the Big12. TCU is not talented enough to be in the top 10 and that will be exposed at some point. Sorry Cinderella, this isn't your story. That leaves the open question of who are the best one loss teams and Oregon and Tennessee are certainly in that conversation along with Ole Miss, USC and UCLA. The loser of Ohio St. and Michigan will join this conversation as well since the loser can't get a second shot for the Big10 championship as its East vs West. I think it's too early to honestly answer the best one loss team question but Oregon is playing really well and has the win over UCLA. The next 4 games will tell the tale of the PAC12 but I think the PAC is very strong this year and its champion will be in the playoff at #3 or #4. The ACC and Big12 just don't look very good this year. Oregon I think ends up #3 if we win out and beat USC in the PAC12 championship. Some really talented teams have dropped out of the conversation because they haven't managed to get all the W's that their roster should have given them. Alabama is extremely talented and I absolutely don't want to play them. Clemson is extremely talented but I think Oregon is 50/50 to beat them. Utah will be a tough tough game but at home I think it's 80/20 Oregon wins. The loser of the USC vs UCLA game is a pretty good 2 loss team but I would put Oregon ahead of either based on how Oregon is playing. I think Oregon winning out is a question that comes down to two items. Can Oregon's offense stay in sync for every remaining game and can Oregon's defense bend but not break to keep Oregon in the lead. If the offense falls out of sync for a whole game then we call it a great season and enjoy the good points over beers until spring camp. If Oregon's defense breaks then it's a shootout and we hope we are playing a team with a poor enough defense that the offense carries the team.

Give it time, Tennessee isn't going to make it to the SEC championship with Georgia finishing the season out with Mississippi St (6-3), Kentucky (6-3) and Georgia Tech (4-5). A one loss conference champion vs a one loss non-conference champion with BOTH teams loosing to the same #1 Georgia team. Sure Tennessee looked better than Oregon but Oregon played Georgia in week 1 so recency bias and the power-5 conference championship would give it to Oregon. Truth is it's an epic battle for Oregon to actually win out. The next four games (3 ranked in Top 15) are all games Oregon could lose so running that table is going to impress voters. We should absolutely not count any chickens but I feel confident in saying Oregon controls its destiny here especially since I think TCU is going to get beat by Texas next week. "Hook those Frogs", Gameday picked this game for a reason...

OSU is going to be tough, UW and Utah at home is a huge help. Vegas isn't going to be a neutral site, that will be a tough "road" game. It's all within reach but nothing is certain and Oregon needs to keep playing well. The playoff is getting kinda murky. Ohio St. Michigan could go either way but I think tOSU gets the edge with a better offense. A one loss Michigan could get in if the game is very close. TCU could drop a game to Texas or Baylor and I'm actually betting Texas pulls out the win at home. Tennessee is iced out of the SEC championship but could still get into the playoffs. I think if Oregon wins out and shows strong in the PAC championship Oregon definitely gets in. We just don't want to be #4 and play Georgia right out of the gate. Best case scenario, Georgia, Ohio St, Oregon and Tennessee.

So I don't think it's super likely that both the #2 and #3 QB's have "given up on the Ducks" especially since Bo is a very mobile QB that thinks sliding is for baseball players. I mean Bo is like 99.999% going to the NFL next year and the only thing that could bring him back is a major season ending injury where he needs more college games to prove he is still NFL ready after recovery. Please God don't let that happen! All this means spring camp is a QB battle between Ty, Jay and likely Dante (early enrollment). So Ty is very close to being the starting QB for the Ducks. With all that being said I don't think it's super likely the coaches leave Ty as the #2 QB if he were showing signs of having given up on Oregon, they would definitely move Jay up to #2 if Ty was lacking effort. DL favors effort over talent, that much is clear. I'm not denying that Ty's passes look inaccurate, the overall anemic offense actually is not unusual given that all the starters were pulled. Ty doesn't look prepared to run this offense but that's not surprising given that this offense is designed around Bo and his skills. Bo is an elite athlete but really so is Ty. Bo has multiple years of reading defenses and throwing footballs in the SEC, Ty doesn't. Bo is getting significant time from coaches on building his already excellent read skills and demonstrating patience with where to throw the ball, Ty most likely isn't. It would honestly be pretty surprising if Ty was anywhere near Bo's skill level. The observation is also true that Ty looks to be behind where HIS skill level should be. I just don't see indications that it's a lack of commitment from Ty that explains this. To be fair the Ty situation is certainly a head scratcher but I don't believe we have enough information to explain why Ty's throws are so inaccurate when he is getting game time. If anybody played QB and would like to look at some of his film maybe they can figure it out. I played D-end and not in college so my knowledge here is pretty limited on throwing mechanics.

I am really looking forward to UW in Autzen, the home crowd will likely supply a bit more juice to the D. To answer your primary question, No I don't think TCU answers the eye test. They have an explosive offense but if that is taken away I'm not sure they sustain enough drives to get a win against a quality opponent.

That seems extremely harsh. Ty was a five star recruit and while some of those definitely are duds we don't know if Ty is or not. Let's give the benefit of the doubt to the coaches on this one. I would also add that Ty looks like he has been hitting the weight room non-stop. Did you see those guns?

I wouldn't worry too much about it. If Bo goes down then we are not likely to win any more games given who we have left on the schedule. This scenario has happened at Oregon before. I recommend enjoying the good times because worrying about what might happen that could snap our win streak, will just take you to a dark place. Ty gets in during trash time and his throws look terrible. We also don't run the ball well during trash time or block or make stops on D. Oregon doesn't play well in trash time when we pull ALL the starters.

Maybe it's the ultimate fake out?

Let's look at this a bit differently and ignore the media rights payout. There are 259 CFB players drafted into the NFL each year. The numbers by position vary and have fluctuated each year. Let's focus on the alpha dog's, QB's. Checking here the average number over 5 years is about 11. Now the one thing we can say is that those 11 QB's can't play on the same team and with the transfer portal the reality is those 11 QB's are going to spread out for play time in college. That means 11 teams will get NFL draftable QB's. How about defensive ends? The average is about 22. Do you see where I'm going with this? CFB is the minors for the NFL and for the players to get drafted they have to highlight themselves with playtime. I've read more than a few articles talking about two super conferences but I ask you, how many teams are there that can put together programs? The SEC is tops with about 5, adding Oklahoma and Texas doesn't necessarily improve that number but lets be generous and say 6. The bottom of the SEC is pretty bad. The Big is 3 and maybe USC brings it to 4, maybe. The question is does revenue give the Big the opportunity to turn that number into 7? Resources are one piece of the puzzle but organization and fan support is also pretty impactful. In order for two conferences to get all 259 players they would need about 25 teams to hold ALL of the talent in CFB. How likely do you think that is and how likely would it be for the transfer portal to level the playing field? Oregon had Bo, Bucky, Noah, Cota and Gonzo all transfer in this year. Why did Bo leave Auburn?

Kenny Dillingham addresses Bo's improvement at Oregon in this interview. He essentially said that he's giving Bo the ability to make pre-snap adjustments when he doesn't like the call and Bo has embraced the notion that he doesn't need to hit every deep shot that's called. The implication is Bo trusts that the offense will get better opportunities with taking a short gain or even throwing it away for no gain. He's essentially minimizing his negatives and trusting the talent around him.

Player safety as I recall was the purpose of the rule change. Kickoff returns are injury factories and they don't offer a lot of value to the game so the NCAA was trying to get more touchbacks. A good tactic for Oregon might be to use kickoff predictability against teams. If they favor a conservative fair catch/touchback policy and only return in obvious return situations they can lull the coverage team and look for clear opportunities. This is what Oregon did with the onside against UCLA. They knew they would likely have a favorable look based on UCLA players not respecting the onside and they timed it to swing/amplify game momentum. A similar approach with kick returns makes sense to catch coverage phoning it in.

Great article, we all hope that Oregon can keep its production at the same level for the seasons last three games after Colorado and then Vegas. As far as the playoffs it's pretty clear that Oregon is considered near the top of the 1-loss teams and the committee will favor a 1-loss conference champion over a 1-loss team without. That means some very good teams are going to get iced out of the playoffs. My money for the bracket is on Georgia, Ohio St, Clemson and either TCU or Oregon (no surprises here). I think it's likely going to come down to TCU going undefeated or not. Having 4 undefeated and then a 1-loss power five conference champion isn't a hard choice for the committee. TCU's last four games are against unranked opponents and then they have their championship which is probably a rematch against K. State. Texas and Baylor have the talent to drop TCU but they aren't playing that well so who knows honestly. TCU looks shaky. If TCU takes a loss and still wins their conference then in theory Oregon and TCU are at the same level but Oregon likely wins the eye test and gets the slot. A 1-loss Georgia or Ohio St that win their conference would edge Oregon and Clemson just isn't likely to loose given the ACC. Chaos happens if Tennessee beats Georgia this weekend or Alabama wins the SEC, but I honestly don't think that's likely. That scenario could see two SEC teams in the playoffs. I'm honestly in a good place with the Ducks season and if we take a second loss or lose in Vegas it's still a great season and the program is undeniably heading in the right direction. If we win out but miss the playoffs my disappointment will be for the players missing that experience (especially Bo and the O-line). The ceiling is sky high for the Ducks and there are some great teams this year that are just going to miss the playoffs. The 12 team playoff can't come soon enough. In that system? Oregon is a perennial and recruits will know it.

Agreed and it may not even be "player drama" behind the decision so I will refrain from saying anything bad about him. The downside of when a team gels like Oregon's starters are now is that players that don't gel may feel like they are on the outside of the group looking in. I personally don't understand why a player would choose to sit out the remainder of the season rather than keep practicing and developing but it likely had to be something significant enough that he decided to give up football until the spring. The truth is we will loose some great players to the portal but we will probably pick up even better players. The portal is here to stay and at least with the window Oregon knows they have a scholarship ready for another transfer or recruit. Oregon's brand is only getting stronger and there are great players who were never even recruited by Oregon that just might deserve a shot to play here.

Here is what I think...

That is awesome news!

Never say never... I'm old enough to remember when the SEC wasn't that good. Georgia won in 1980 and the next SEC team to win was in 1992 with Alabama. The point is that CFB is a shifting landscape and it's absolutely true the SEC is dominant in the current era but stuff happens in this sport. Money is moving around and booster money is going to be peanuts in a few years. It was booster money that bought the Pete Carroll era at USC. The programs that are able to run their teams as a business and best posture their players for NIL and the NFL will dominate the future.