Duck Fan 76

It's an interesting topic and I doubt there's a "unifying field theory" of coaching success at Oregon or after. In the history of the program there have been the occasional great players at Oregon that lifted the teams to more success than the local recruiting population should be able to support (Fouts, Rashad, Van Broklyn, Renfro). The state of Oregon has always lacked the sheer number of great HS athletes to draw from that gives success to programs closer to large populations. The modern era trend line from 90's to now has more than one driver and most of them have been mentioned above. What I would add is that I actually think that some of that success is due to bringing in multiple coaches on the rise. What I mean is that we have benefited from the coaching turn over by bringing a fresh approach every so often to build upon what Oregon already had going for it. The truth is we are going to loose Dan Lanning at some point if he continues to be successful. I doubt it would be to another college program but a football nerd like DL has got to be chomping at the bit to coach in the NFL. Will he be successful in the NFL? Who knows but the truth is most NFL coaches aren't as there's a constant churn to staff in the NFL. For now I think we're in good coaching shape and I doubt we will loose KD this year (but it's absolutely possible if his offense keeps up the current trend). We have to have faith that DL will bring in more talent if we loose coaches and we have to have faith that the program will bring in more talent if we loose DL. Slick Willie is the only coach I had hard feelings about and each one of the prior head coaches (even Chip) brought a mixed bag of good and bad qualities to the position. What matters to the program is that we keep salaries high enough to pull in high quality coordinators and position coaches to keep recruiting and developing players from across the country. We also need to hold coaches to a standard that is realistic and measurable. They get paid a lot of money and we have clear program expectations with regard to the program trajectory. I thought Helfrich was fired prematurely to be honest but without that event we wouldn't be recruiting like we do now. I know the above sounds like I'm embracing CFB as a business and that's because in general I am. The idea that NCAA football is about amateur student athletes competing for school pride on the weekends when they aren't studying for their degree went away somewhere in the 1960s. The amateur status of these programs went out the door with the rise of the NFL and the influx of broadcast money so I'm glad that NIL is correcting the worst of it (though NIL definitely needs fixed). If you want to watch amateur college football it's played in the NAIA all over the country. Lots of loyal coaches making peanuts and actual student athletes in those games. As for me, I'm just happy that the people running Duck football seem to know what they are doing. I mean look at the mess USC and UCLA made of their programs. That got bad enough that they have to leave the PAC to stay viable. We'll see where that all goes but if Phil has had a major influence on the Ducks it's not just the donations, his business acumen ensures the school runs athletics like a business and that means accountability for achieving goals.

Good news, the transfer portal now has windows. "The transfer windows, which will go into effect in time for the 2022-23 season, will allow 60 days per year for athletes to enter the portal and maintain immediate eligibility for first-time transfers. For fall sports like football, the period will be split into two periods. The first, a 45-day period, will start the day after championship selections are made. A second window will be instituted from May 1-15 so players can enter the transfer portal after spring camp."

5 -> 6 -> 8 -> 8 -> 14 I would call that a clear trend line in the wrong direction. Some penalties are to be expected (man down the field on RPO) and to be honest the officials get about 4 of those in the Stanford game. That still leaves about 8+ solid mental errors.

I'm going to have to look at the film to really judge what happened. Besides what you already pointed out from my seat there were a few egregious face mask penalties that the officials missed and Stanford got ever more chippy as the game went on. To be fair Stanford is playing a nightmare schedule right now and their offense is abysmal so defenders getting angry is to be expected. That being said some of that chippy play after the whistle absolutely should have been called. As for Seven's ejection here is the video. At 9 seconds in you will see Stanford safety #2 McGill push a helmetless Bo Nix for making a tackle on what Bo thought was a live ball. The play was whistled dead but obviously Stanford was continuing to run with the ball. At 12 seconds you will see Stanford corner #4 Turner-Muhammad pushing Oregon players rallying to Bo. At 17 seconds Seven is pulling Turner-Muhammed out of the pile. He pushed Turner-Muhammed in the helmet right in front of the line judge. At 21 seconds he pushes Stanford linebacker #8 Tristan Sinclair in the helmet, this time with force. When I watch the scuffle I see Seven trying to get Stanford players away from the Oregon sideline. This wasn't in my opinion a negative for Seven but he needs to learn to not push helmets since that will draw a flag. My question is, if Seven hadn't pushed two guys helmets would the officials have thrown any flags? Stanford started the scuffle and should have been penalized for the shoving after the play was dead. Ultimately what I watched was some sloppy mistakes from Oregon but terrible officiating from the PAC. We're way past due to hold the conference accountable for OUR officials. Honestly though, as long as we keep paying "super fans" peridium to officiate games this is what we are going to get.

From what I saw Ty is struggling with accuracy during games. Since Jay throws dimes I'm sure Ty is showing something in practices that makes him the #2. As for why he's struggling in trash time that could be as simple as nerves. He's a mobile QB but getting him more game time to settle in and make his throws will likely be a priority for the staff.

Lanning is also focused on player development, if you don't get the two's in the games at some point they will be limited when you do need them. Injuries are a reality in football.

I was at the game and honestly I chalk it up to 1) The play was a bit sloppy, especially in the third quarter 2) It was a night game In the post game the players not dancing was discussed and Lanning's rule essentially breaks down to you have to have the game well in hand and playing clean football to dance during Shout.

I agree, it's time the PAC modernized its officiating compensation and significantly increased its officiating training, standards and evaluations. The PAC needs professional refs and not super-fans.

This is a bit of a double edged sword if Oregon's offense is struggling. I think the missing component is the Cover-1 scheme adjustment that increases the risk of an explosive play a small amount but gives a higher probability of returning the ball to Oregon's offense with significant game time left. That's the adaptive situational defense I would expect. Maybe we would have seen it if Oregon's offense wasn't doing as well as it did against WSU. I mean the game was always relatively close...

To be honest I'm not super worried (yet) about the O-line recruiting. Obviously it's been a topic of conversation so far this cycle but I have a tremendous amount of respect for coach Klemm and the product he's putting together. Here is a recent interview with Marcus Harper II that really shines a light on the approach Oregon is using with the O-line. The focus is heavy on technical development, relentless improvement and the returns have been showing up in games. To your point this weekend could be big for Oregon recruiting. I think when quality O-line recruits come here looking at Oregon, great player development is what they are going to see. This is a somewhat down year for west coast O-line recruits (by volume) but some of the guys visiting this weekend are California, Utah and Hawaii natives. Oregon offers a good opportunity to develop for the NFL but stay closer to home. Utah is however a big competitor for us as they do player development very well also.

That's a great point and will be important down the stretch against Washington, Utah and possibly USC with decent offenses in the PAC that will hang with Oregon's offense. With Oregon sitting at 54% on 3rd downs we are obviously not consistently getting stops but a more nuanced look at when we are getting stops is warranted. Dazed had a great article discussing the Cover-2 and stopping big plays and obviously in the Red-Zone with compressed spacing the defense is in better position but the edge play will likely continue to be the attack point for Oregon opponents. Those crossing/hook short gain routes are reliably converting 3rd downs and that feels frustrating. Perhaps we will see more of the defense install as the season goes on? I'm assuming the coaches have/or are teaching some sort of answer to this other than to rely on athletic prowess on the edge to get off blocks and make open field tackles.

That was a terrific article and I thought the analysis was spot on. I agree with your assessment and I would add that the coaching staff knows the Oregon players very very well so there's a reason this defense is showing itself. I would add to the discussion that part of the rationale for the B2B defense is the strength of Oregon's interior linebackers. Oregon is STOUT against the run because our linebackers are the run safeties. I think we will see this against Utah who will play a grinding offense scheme. Fresh defenders and a stout run defense will be the difference maker this year.

I think this is deliberate by the coaches. They are focusing on building up Bo's confidence on the protection and continuing to work with him on being disciplined with his reads. Kenny said he would call plays back to back like this but Bo needs to recognize if the defense sniffs these out. He lost track of Mauigoa in the defense and with the pressure coming down on him he threw the ball with air under it. Honestly the WSU defense played that pass PERFECT. He's gaining confidence though with what he's being taught and I think when the game plan calls for it he will be taking more and more shots down the field. Probably not against Stanford next week... but I think we will have more close games this year and the deep shots will be needed.

Yup, and even though they aren't going to be this week I think that team will continue to get better and will end up ranked by the end of the year and go to a well deserved bowl game. The Cougar Raid offense is for real and that defense is fast and plays HARD. I will DEFINITELY be watching the WSU at USC game on Oct 8th as I don't think USC's defense is up to this test so that will be a shootout.

Ward absolutely dished out the ball to his playmakers finding those zone gaps and those WR's were difficult to bring down. I saw a mix of missed and amazing tackles from Oregon's defenders and that's good progress against slippery skill players. Some of the DB play was great including pass breakups and coverage sacks. The DB's definitely have room to grow in coverage and the perimeter seems to be where every team chooses to attack Oregon. WSU only had 53 yards from the handoff, averaging about 3 yards per carry for the RB's and 0.4 YPC for Ward on the scramble. Against Wisconsin they had 174 yards on the ground.

I agree, I'm not positive what was going on with the red zone play calling in the first half. I think he was using plays that were working on the drives and not realizing that the compressed field didn't give him the same numbers advantages. WSU did a great job of swarming to the play all game. They had so much drive in the game, this was an absolute brawl. That being said, I continue to be impressed with the offense. Oregon only punted twice in the whole game. We definitely want TD's and not Kicks but there's magic brewing in the Oregon offense. The defense had some challenges but the Cougar Raid offense isn't fun to defend, especially in Pullman. The defense is still learning but they had some great plays. Game ball goes to the Offensive line... 0 sacks in 4 games.

I assume you mean would Ty transfer? Hard to say, he's very talented and could already be playing at a lot of schools. That breaks down to a very personal decision on his part and we should support him to do what is best for him. The odds are overwhelmingly in favor of this being Bo's last year no matter what so I really think next year Ty's the Oregon QB unless Jay passes him in development but that doesn't seem to be the case. Dante Moore coming in next year is likely going to be a phenom but there is zero chance I would think he beats out Ty and Jay for the job. My best guess (a dumb move on my part) is that Bo plays this year, Ty plays for 2 years and then Dante Moore gets the start as a redshirt sophomore.

Based on some of the player interviews it looks like there are leaders in each group (DB's, LB's, Line). The player led model uses the informal position leaders to self organize outside of games/practices. As far as an overall leader of the defense I don't know for sure but I think Bennett Williams does a lot of the talking. Noah is more of a quiet personality but I'm sure when he talks everyone listens. Flowe has always been an emotional leader and I'm sure he does a great job of motivating players on and off the field.

I loved this article, great tone! I think you just coined it, I'm going to start calling this thing the "Gimme Shelter Offense"

Agreed, it's great to see Bo thriving in the system and I really hope he stays healthy and keeps developing. He had a rough time in Auburn and I would love to see him cap his college years with a truly positive experience. Technically he has another year of eligibility for next season but I believe Bo wanted this year at Oregon to show his skills in the best light so he can go to the NFL in the Spring. That would mean this will likely be Ty's team next year so his and Jay's continued development is absolutely crucial to the program and Bo is a huge help there.

This is from last week against EWU but you can just see in the BYU game how the coaching staff is taking hold and molding this as their program.

I agree with that point as well as your point on the transfer portal. I'm however extremely grateful for the modified transfer window rules to calm some of the chaos of the portal. There are four big trends currently working the way through CFB transforming the sport in unique ways: 1) Broadcast Consolidation (ESPN and Fox) 2) NIL 3) Transfer Portal 4) BCS Expansion That many moving parts across a distributed network makes predicting the future of CFB a fools game in my opinion. In math we call such a system complex which means small changes have outsized impacts in a way that isn't obvious. I think the effects of "Broadcast Consolidation" are mostly negative, I mean who thinks having only Fox and ESPN covering games is good for the sport? The net result may be the destruction of the regional conferences and much of CFB's history. I'm not sure how this one plays out to be honest. Maybe congress gets involved since there are so many public dollars in the mix. NIL is still evolving and like most things there are good and bad things associated with it. I love the idea of the athletes recovering their rights and getting to earn some cash but I absolutely hate some of the abuses categorized as "collectives". I'm also not sure how this one plays out. With the modified transfer windows the portal I think is mostly a net gain to all but the highest tier programs. The days of Pete Carrol sending guys to the NFL that never played a down at USC are probably over and that's good for the sport. Let the best players play. I believe the BCS expansion does exactly what you said, it lowers some of the impacts of regular season games but opens up the possibility of a true Cinderella story (likely with significant help from the transfer portal). I would say there is the possibility of an unintended positive from lowering the impact of regular season games. With less desperation to play perfect we could hopefully see fewer injuries and a bit more experimentation in CFB. In general I'm not gloom and doom on the sport like most fans my age. Sitting in Autzen stadium I can see plenty of passion for the game. The CFB experience brings a local excitement that the NFL can't match since college towns are smaller and more widespread. I mean is the Rose Bowl empty because everyone in LA is getting their Rams and Chargers fix on? That's not even a possibility for Oregon.

Just look at Clemson!

I agree Oregon looked so much better especially on the perimeter but Georgia has a double tap against most teams IMHO. Georgia recruits better athletes at nearly every positions AND Georgia is developing their talent at a very high level. BYU gets credit for developing their talent at a high level but the recruiting differences are unfortunately very stark. Here are the last 5 classes from 247 sports: Year BYU Oregon Georgia 2022 #56 #13 #3 2021 #77 #6 #4 2020 #80 #12 #1 2019 #81 #7 #2 2018 #78 #13 #1 In those five classes BYU has recruited a total of three 4-star players. Now I'm not in the camp that thinks stars are everything because both Marcus Mariota and Justin Herbert were three star recruits and they grade out slightly above average. Work ethic means a lot when it comes down to players developing and sometimes HS recruits peak early or don't show their top end out of high school. I'm absolutely not trying to take anything away from Georgia, they have 100% earned the #1 spot. The truth is it's rarified air with Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and now Georgia. Oregon is seeking to get there but the program needs to get stability and even better recruiting to break through to win a national championship. I absolutely BELIEVE in this coaching staff! I'd like to believe that CFB allows for a Cinderella story but the last 20 years of evidence is just mostly to the contrary. Oregon got as close as anyone under Chip's spread with a three and four star roster but he had to outmaneuver most of the conventions of football defenses to get there. We very nearly did it under Helfrich in 2015 but Ohio State's offense helmed by their 3rd string QB proved too much for Oregon's defense and Ohio State had figured out some of the formula to mitigate the spread by that game. I do however have real hope that the rest of Oregon's season will be good, potentially very very good. If the PAC is to stay alive Oregon has to carry the banner and that means success on the field and in recruiting. Images like this give me hope that Oregon will continue to do extremely well recruiting SoCal especially when USC begins to get mangled by Ohio State and/or Lincoln Riley gets the NFL payday he's looking for.

Yup, this isn't the game to get the backups in and be cordial. Oregon needs to score fast and often and keep WSU out of this game. I can guarantee the national media is looking for Oregon to get soft and forget to play one of these games.