Paul Finebaum Predicts Pac-12 Will Collapse by 2026

[Rufus]

Paul Finebaum predicts Pac-12 will collapse by 2026

WWW.ON3.COM

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[Rufus]

I don’t see the PAC collapsing in the sense it is no longer a conference. 
 

I do see it collapsing in the sense that it will become a hodge podge conference of unwanted PAC teams, Mountain West teams, and American Athletic Conference teams.  

[Jon Joseph]

I'm shocked! Say it ain't so Pawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwlllll!

 

Although Paul's take brought a smile to the face of dozens of chicken farmers across the south and the one millionaire who lives in Starkville other than the Football coach and basketball coach.

 

If the Pac-12 holds together which I believe it will any AAC teams or Mountain West teams the Pac-10 add will be at the top of the G5 game when it comes to donors and success. SDSU played for a CBB tourney title last season. As were BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF when added to the B12. The Orlando, Florida media market is larger than the Miami market.

 

 

[anyotherduck]

Yea, whatever. Classic carpetbagger.

[Charles Fischer]

From the epitome of an SEC honk....who knew?

 

Finebaum doesn't know

what he's taking on...

[Charles Fischer]

On 6/20/2023 at 12:33 PM, Jon Joseph said:

and the one millionaire who lives in Starkville other than the Football coach and basketball coach.

Starkville...."the Pullman of the SEC."

 

[EastBayDuckDad]

Finebaum's perspective outside of the SEC reminds me of the old New Yorker cartoon with the same degree of sniffing condescension:

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by EastBayDuckDad

[noDucknewby]

Ok I'll state the obvious, if this new TV deal gets done the existing members will be signing away their GOR for the next 4-5 years.  How is it possible that two years into a new 4-5 year deal the conference collapses?  There's more of a chance the conference doesn't survive the summer.

 

The next contract cycle is an entirely different debate and it certainly seems likely that the B1G will take another bite out of the P12 at that time.  The LA schools aren't coming back and I agree with others that the P12 only survives as a power conference as long as the B1G/SEC allow it to.

[Charles Fischer]

How?  It isn't as you noted, but other conferences sure want to throw dirt on us!

 

You just wish...

[David Marsh]

On 6/20/2023 at 3:50 PM, noDucknewby said:

The next contract cycle is an entirely different debate and it certainly seems likely that the B1G will take another bite out of the P12 at that time.

If they want to... 

 

Mentioned on another thread today is that many of the higher ups in the B1G don't like the prospect of regularly traveling to the west coast. 

 

Ohio State cancelled their ooc with Washington to avoid the expense. 

 

Traveling to southern California once every couple years is one thing... It's nice there and is in the middle of a recruiting hot bed. 

 

But what about the perspect of traveling to the PNW in October? Sure it's warmer than the midwest ... But it's rainy and from a recruiting stand point it isn't worth their while. 

 

I could see resistance to adding more west coast schools. The current B1G members probably don't care about the LA schools' burden of travel but they'll care about their own and simply put... More west coast schools will mean more frequent trips. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/20/2023 at 7:04 PM, Charles Fischer said:

How?  It isn't as you noted, but other conferences sure want to throw dirt on us!

 

You just wish...

DUCK! Quack.

[TFITZ81]

At least he's not calling Rob mullins a liar for no reason..lol

 

[pastatot]

On 6/21/2023 at 5:48 AM, Wrathis said:

Finebaum is the mouth of the SEC south and only has an interest in peddling their wares. I still believe GK is not Larry Scott and will work a better than B12 deal for our conference. We add SDSU and SMU in a short GoR deal,

 

then add UNLV, Houston, and two more to get to that magic 16 number of the super-conferences. Personally I'd like to go on the offensive and snag TCU (to shore up the Dallas market) and maybe BYU to complete the

 

conference...and I think that's what we'll have to do. Playing defense against the B12 invaders isn't going to hold forever, so flipping the script and going offensive is the only way to ensure we thrive. 

But what will the Pac-12 have to offer TCU or BYU?  It's clear now that teams only move for money.  How can the Pac-12 afford to pay more to any other P5 team? There's no media deal, yet, and nothing but promises that there will be.  For a team like TCU or BYU to move at the end of the Big 12 contract the pay differential would need to be huge. For them to move mid-contract, the the number would need to be even larger, huger, if you will.

[Charles Fischer]

You are new pastatot, and we would encourage you to post your thoughts often.  WELCOME!

[HappyToBeADuck]

Couple of thoughts:

 

Finebaum is an SEC honk, plain and simple. His comments have no value. Weigh and measure after the PAC's new media deal is in place.

 

As much as I like having TCU and BYU in the PAC remember our 12 Presidents, some with hidden agendas, rejected those schools. 

 

It will take a boat load of money to shift that tide........

[Tandaian]

I could possibly see BYU moving to the Pac 12 because there would be slightly less travel, but I'm not a fan of them having Sundays off.  They are not worth special treatment.

 

There hasn't been a finalized plan, but UCLA is set to pay Cal 2 to 10 million per year.  I can't find any answers as to how that is calculated.

 

Colorado moved to the Pac 12 because they did make more money from that first contract after the move.  Now, I don't see a Pac 12 or Big 12 team moving to the other conference because there isn't going to be more money either way.

 

I am really interested in seeing how the UCLA and USC athletes feel about the travel with the B1G TEN.  If the money is only $60 mil per team and UCLA is paying an extra $10 mil for travel and $10 to Cal, and the Pac 12 has a TV contract of 32 mil, is the extra 8 mil worth it if the athletes hate it?

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/21/2023 at 8:48 AM, Wrathis said:

Finebaum is the mouth of the SEC south and only has an interest in peddling their wares. I still believe GK is not Larry Scott and will work a better than B12 deal for our conference. We add SDSU and SMU in a short GoR deal,

 

then add UNLV, Houston, and two more to get to that magic 16 number of the super-conferences. Personally I'd like to go on the offensive and snag TCU (to shore up the Dallas market) and maybe BYU to complete the

 

conference...and I think that's what we'll have to do. Playing defense against the B12 invaders isn't going to hold forever, so flipping the script and going offensive is the only way to ensure we thrive. 

As to Finebaum, spot on.

 

As to UNLV, the Runnin' Rebels should be picked up now. Las Vegas is the defacto conference HQ. CBB and CFB championships are played in LV. Clark County is a growing TV market and LV is in the Pacific time zone, plays football in a close-to-campus NFL stadium, has upgraded CFB practice facilities, and not so long ago won an NCAA CBB title. Academics? Those days should be gone like the student-athlete model is gone. The ACC has 5 AAU members. The B12, 1. The SEC 5 when Texas comes on board. With the addition of a medical school, UNLV's academics have improved. 

 

Pro sports 'get' the appeal of LV. Now home of the Stanley Cup winner. The Raiders. And MLB is on the way. The NBA will likely have a team in LV by 20230. 

 

As to BYU, TCU, and Houston, will the Pac-10+ have the money to interest these schools in leaving the B12 and paying the exit fee that would come with leaving the conference? TCU is already in the P% and Houston and BYU are now in the P5. BYU, unless it agrees to play on Sunday will not receive an invite. If you want to play west coast defense against the B12 add SDSU, UNLV, and Fresno. Boise's cachet is wearing off, it plays in a small stadium and the media market is tiny.

 

Great thoughts, thanks. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/21/2023 at 11:08 AM, Tandaian said:

I could possibly see BYU moving to the Pac 12 because there would be slightly less travel, but I'm not a fan of them having Sundays off.  They are not worth special treatment.

 

There hasn't been a finalized plan, but UCLA is set to pay Cal 2 to 10 million per year.  I can't find any answers as to how that is calculated.

 

Colorado moved to the Pac 12 because they did make more money from that first contract after the move.  Now, I don't see a Pac 12 or Big 12 team moving to the other conference because there isn't going to be more money either way.

 

I am really interested in seeing how the UCLA and USC athletes feel about the travel with the B1G TEN.  If the money is only $60 mil per team and UCLA is paying an extra $10 mil for travel and $10 to Cal, and the Pac 12 has a TV contract of 32 mil, is the extra 8 mil worth it if the athletes hate it?

I think SC and UCLA football will be fine with the travel and solid academics could soften the blow when it comes to recruiting non-revenue sports. BYU is not and likely never will be on the table.

 

I think the Cal tax will simply be determined by the Trustees as the Board of Trustees so desires. But the easy Calculation is simply to compare B1G media revenue to Pac-10 revenue. If this was to happen the move by UCLA would make no sense whatsoever which is why it won't happen.

[Charles Fischer]

On 6/21/2023 at 8:23 AM, Jon Joseph said:

BYU is not and likely never will be on the table.

I agree with that as Wilner/Canzano have reported that Utah already brings that area media market, thus BYU is redundant. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/20/2023 at 8:02 PM, David Marsh said:

If they want to... 

 

Mentioned on another thread today is that many of the higher ups in the B1G don't like the prospect of regularly traveling to the west coast. 

 

Ohio State cancelled their ooc with Washington to avoid the expense. 

 

Traveling to southern California once every couple years is one thing... It's nice there and is in the middle of a recruiting hot bed. 

 

But what about the perspect of traveling to the PNW in October? Sure it's warmer than the midwest ... But it's rainy and from a recruiting stand point it isn't worth their while. 

 

I could see resistance to adding more west coast schools. The current B1G members probably don't care about the LA schools' burden of travel but they'll care about their own and simply put... More west coast schools will mean more frequent trips. 

Great thoughts. Ohio State also paid $500K to avoid a possible loss in Seattle. Ohio State travels to UCLA in 2024 and plays USC at home in 2025. But in 2025 it also opens the season with a game versus Texas. Michigan plays Texas in Ann Arbor in 2024 and UCLA is one of Michigan's scheduling partners.  

 

As to adding west coast teams. In the next decade will the B1G add more Western teams or go East for ACC teams? Or both? Notre Dame is the B1G prize and if the ACC breaks up ND will have to find somewhere to play football. The B1G will not give Notre Dame a football scheduling agreement that will assure ND's independence. ND will be all B1G or not B1G at all. I do not see ND in the SEC but politics, and money, make strange bedfellows. 

 

But as I have noted before, players as employees will alter the entire college sports calculus.  

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/20/2023 at 9:11 PM, TFITZ81 said:

At least he's not calling Rob mullins a liar for no reason..lol

 

Not to pick nits but as a quarter-Irish guy, Rob's last name is Mullens with an 'e.' Erin Go Bragh!

[NJDuck]

 

Since we are bringing up Paul Finebaum, here is another piece criticizing the Pac-12.

 

Paul Finebaum criticizes Pac-12’s media rights negotiation, San Diego State situation

 

Paul Finebaum criticizes Pac-12’s media rights negotiation, San Diego State situation - On3

WWW.ON3.COM

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[noDucknewby]

On 6/20/2023 at 5:02 PM, David Marsh said:

If they want to... 

 

Mentioned on another thread today is that many of the higher ups in the B1G don't like the prospect of regularly traveling to the west coast. 

 

Ohio State cancelled their ooc with Washington to avoid the expense. 

 

Traveling to southern California once every couple years is one thing... It's nice there and is in the middle of a recruiting hot bed. 

 

But what about the perspect of traveling to the PNW in October? Sure it's warmer than the midwest ... But it's rainy and from a recruiting stand point it isn't worth their while. 

 

I could see resistance to adding more west coast schools. The current B1G members probably don't care about the LA schools' burden of travel but they'll care about their own and simply put... More west coast schools will mean more frequent trips. 

David I read your article about Pac-12 survival strategy and while I agree with your strategic analysis, I think it is most likely wishful thinking.  I just don't envision the LA schools (or just UCLA) taking a huge pay cut to reduce travel time and related expenses to return to the Pac-12.  To my mind, it is more likely that the B1G will do whatever it needs to do to keep them there and the best way to do that is add more west coast schools to ease travel issues.

 

Hypothetically, if they add Oregon/Washington/Cal/Stanford and create a west coast pod that plays each other every year, that accounts for 5 conference games.  Throw in 2 home and 2 away games with the rest of the conference and that becomes very manageable.  Under this scenario there would be a total of 12 away games on the west coast for the rest of the conference to split up, which seems very doable.

 

Would the B1G want Cal and Stanford?  That's anybody's guess at this point, but I don't think they would give up either of the LA schools without a fight and let's face it we're badly outgunned here.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for the Pac and I hope you're right but the B1G and the SEC are holding all the cards and all I see is the rich getting richer.

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/21/2023 at 12:37 PM, WoadBlue said:

BYU has large numbers of fans in ID, NV, eastern WA and OR, and CA, all areas of CA. So adding BYU is much more than just adding TV in UT. 

BYU has, not at the level of Notre Dame, a national TV audience but BYU will never get a Pac invite. In addition to the academic barrier (SIGH) there is the church affiliation barrier. SMU is no longer officially affiliated with the Methodist church and plays ball on Sundays.

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/21/2023 at 1:18 PM, Wrathis said:

Also, as someone that lives in the Dallas area, I understand Lubbock doesn't have the households but I will say there is a STRONG Texas Tech showing in this area...take that for what it's worth.

The Red Raiders should already be a member of the Pac-20. TX Tech has great fans but the DFW market is important to broadcast partners. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/21/2023 at 1:17 PM, noDucknewby said:

David I read your article about Pac-12 survival strategy and while I agree with your strategic analysis, I think it is most likely wishful thinking.  I just don't envision the LA schools (or just UCLA) taking a huge pay cut to reduce travel time and related expenses to return to the Pac-12.  To my mind, it is more likely that the B1G will do whatever it needs to do to keep them there and the best way to do that is add more west coast schools to ease travel issues.

 

Hypothetically, if they add Oregon/Washington/Cal/Stanford and create a west coast pod that plays each other every year, that accounts for 5 conference games.  Throw in 2 home and 2 away games with the rest of the conference and that becomes very manageable.  Under this scenario there would be a total of 12 away games on the west coast for the rest of the conference to split up, which seems very doable.

 

Would the B1G want Cal and Stanford?  That's anybody's guess at this point, but I don't think they would give up either of the LA schools without a fight and let's face it we're badly outgunned here.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for the Pac and I hope you're right but the B1G and the SEC are holding all the cards and all I see is the rich getting richer.

 

 

Great take, The LA schools would prefer Cal and Stanford to Oregon and UW. Especially UCLA to eliminate the Cali tax. And if it matters and it likely does to many B1G presidents, Cal and Stanford bring sterling academics.

 

It's big business where the rich always get richer usually at someone else's expense. The B12 in the case of the SEC and the Pac-12 in the case of the B1G.

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/21/2023 at 1:13 PM, WoadBlue said:

An article on this.

 

 

Its final sentence: "There's at least a decent chance that the only main conferences across college sports in 2026 will be the ACC, SEC, and Big Ten."

 

If that is going to be so, then the ACC and Pac must be aligned in order to maximize their survives. Perhaps that is best by. merger of some type. Perhaps it would be best with just a very broad and organized scheduling too have multiple OOC contests each year in each league. But I m certain that we must work together very closely.

ACC? I don't see it. I do not believe the conference will hold together until 2030 let alone 2036. 4 teams to the B1G, Duke, Georgia Tech, and UNC, with 4 to the SEC, Clemson, FSU, Louisville, and Miami, end the ACC conference. No exit fee payment required. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/21/2023 at 2:56 PM, Wrathis said:

Just a question about economies of scale: BYU wouldn't qualify bc of religious affiliation. However, do you think every conference would certainly make a myriad exceptions for Notre Dame? I would think so and that being said, it's all about dollars and very little about principle. I figure it's much the same reasoning schools in LA and Austin will bolt for more money but teach a very different set of economic principles in the classroom...

HECK YES! But ND does play on Sundays and is, of course, a much bigger brand. $ overwhelms any and all obstacles. 

[OregonDucks]

On 6/21/2023 at 8:18 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

The NBA will likely have a team in LV by 20230. 

 

 

That’s a BOLD prediction. Love it!

[OregonDucks]

On 6/21/2023 at 9:47 AM, WoadBlue said:

Let me add to your points. What is the BT now most obsessed with? Trying to catch the SEC in terms of football depth of quality. And that requires players, lots more top players. Is southern CA loaded with such players? Yep. How about northern CA? Not so much, better than MN, IA,  and WI certainly, but not enough to even dent the talent advantage held by the SEC states. How about OR and WA? Nope. 

I respectfully disagree. It’s not all about recruiting. If it were, the B1G would be looking to add Texas and/or Florida programs next. 
 

The B1G was focused on maximizing its TV value. That’s why they went after the LA schools (the second largest U.S. market).

 

If the B1G wants to compete with the SEC, then they should be adding programs that can compete for national titles. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/21/2023 at 8:30 PM, OregonDucks said:

That’s a BOLD prediction. Love it!

LOL! One thing for certain I won't he here, at least in this iteration to find out how much of a prophet am I.

[OceaniaDuck]

What I see in all of these PAC-10 doom and gloom articles is a play on the James Bond film Tomorrow Never Dies, but sports version, where the media wants certain events to fall into place, i.e., the "demise" of the PAC-10 so the media can get its way with college football, which unfortunately it already has to a large extent.

I am skeptical of whatever Dennis Dodd and Paul Finebaum have to say regarding the state of affairs of the PAC-10 conference. Probably the only journalists I feel are credible are Jon Wilner and John Canzano. All the rest is white noise.

I'm just waiting in anticipation as to what happens and hope GK negotiates a deal that will help the conference to move forward and thrive again.

[Just Ducky]

Finebumb is pretty pathetic in my eyes. Don’t think I’ve ever believed anything he says. 

[lownslowav8r]

On 6/21/2023 at 10:17 AM, noDucknewby said:

David I read your article about Pac-12 survival strategy and while I agree with your strategic analysis, I think it is most likely wishful thinking.  I just don't envision the LA schools (or just UCLA) taking a huge pay cut to reduce travel time and related expenses to return to the Pac-12.

It all depends on the additional expenses of moving. The TV money is now down to $60 million, subtract 10 mil for travel, higher coaching pay etc., another 5-10 mil to support Cal, and you are pretty much within a few mil of what PAC-12 teams are making. Is that worth the move? Throw in the fact that any extra money will go to retiring their debt and not into building a stronger athletic department and you have the potential for longterm irrelevance. Only time will tell. 

[Charles Fischer]

Paul Finebaum is the modern sports version of...

 

[Rufus]

The B1G contract is back loaded. What is $60 million this year, increases the next and so on. In fact, USC and UCLA join in year 2 of the media deal, so there is a decent bump in payout just between years 1 and 2.  
 

it will still be around $100 million per school per year by the end of the contract. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/21/2023 at 10:43 PM, lownslowav8r said:

It all depends on the additional expenses of moving. The TV money is now down to $60 million, subtract 10 mil for travel, higher coaching pay etc., another 5-10 mil to support Cal, and you are pretty much within a few mil of what PAC-12 teams are making. Is that worth the move? Throw in the fact that any extra money will go to retiring their debt and not into building a stronger athletic department and you have the potential for longterm irrelevance. Only time will tell. 

I knew it had hit $65M. Now at $60M? 

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/22/2023 at 8:18 AM, Rufus said:

The B1G contract is back loaded. What is $60 million this year, increases the next and so on. In fact, USC and UCLA join in year 2 of the media deal, so there is a decent bump in payout just between years 1 and 2.  
 

it will still be around $100 million per school per year by the end of the contract. 

I question $100M in today's world of cord-cutting and streaming coming on. ESPN was not willing to pay more, even though it means more, for the SEC to move to 9 conference games with the arrival of Oklahoma and Texas. The halcyon days of linear TV are coming to a close. Fewer folks watching linear TV means a smaller market for media rights sales to advertisers. The reality is that without the LA schools and the addition of CBS and NBC/Peacock into the B1G broadcast mix the B1G deal would be closer to $45 to $50M per school per annum.

 

Fox and ESPN do not have the money to meet the media deals contractual demands. The money comes from the sale of in-game advertising time. If not sold at a premium, Fox and Disney/ESPN do not make money.  

 

All is not well in the land of Mickey Mouse. The SEC best be prepared for a number of games, Vandy vs Mizzou, and South Carolina vs Kentucky, to be available on ESPN+ only. Ditto the B12. And with streaming I expect many games will be broadcast in-studio and not on site. As to the B1G, we know that a number of games will be streamed on Peacock with its 20M customer base. This is where the Pac-10 with a deal with Apple/Amazon could close the financial gap with the Power 2. 

 

I expect that streaming companies and pay-for-view will separate the college sports wheat from the chaff. Teams that draw more eyeballs and pay-for-play payments will receive more money. The days of conference equal share revenue splits are coming to a close. 

[Rufus]

Big Ten Lands Historic Media Rights Deal; More Expansion Ahead?

WWW.ACTIONNETWORK.COM

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Read on for Brett McMurphy's report about the Big Ten Conference's new historic media rights deal and potential...

 

The Big Ten’s new media rights agreements are backloaded in part because CBS is limited on how many Big Ten games it can show in 2023, the final year of its SEC contract.

 

In 2023-24, the league’s schools will receive the same conference distribution as they did in 2022-23 (nearly $60 million per school). The league’s payouts will increase slightly in Year 2 (2024-25) before drastically increasing the final five years of the deal from 2025-30, growing to about $100 million per school, including revenue from the College Football Playoff, bowl games and the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

 

[lownslowav8r]

On 6/22/2023 at 8:59 AM, Jon Joseph said:

I knew it had hit $65M. Now at $60M? 

It had dropped 5 mil. I haven’t heard of a second drop. 

[Lrod]

I don't know why most of you are dismissing Finebaums opinion...

 

Oregon needs to leave the Pac by 2025-26. 

 

I live on the east coast and don't follow the Pac beyond football.   So my comments are strictly football related when I say PAC isnt appealing after this year outside of Oregon.  Only way around leaving is to schedule 1 or 2 big name teams for out of conference games.  I'm not talking Texas Tech levels.  

[Jon Joseph]

And with friends like this guy? Gold is a tool. It has been reported that the corner schools are looking to leave. Please cite a sourced report.

 

Regardless, I do agree with his ranking of potential Pac-10 expansion candidates. Personally, I think it would stink to lose Fresno and UNLV to the B12. 

 

Gold: Pac-12 pitches — What the top expansion candidates have to offer the reeling conference

SATURDAYOUTWEST.COM

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We're not quite playing musical chairs yet, but pretty soon, a handful of schools might start jockeying for position to fill a hole...

 

[Thomallister1291]

On 6/26/2023 at 8:45 AM, Lrod said:

I don't know why most of you are dismissing Finebaums opinion...

 

Oregon needs to leave the Pac by 2025-26. 

 

I live on the east coast and don't follow the Pac beyond football.   So my comments are strictly football related when I say PAC isnt appealing after this year outside of Oregon.  Only way around leaving is to schedule 1 or 2 big name teams for out of conference games.  I'm not talking Texas Tech levels.  

Indeed, I want Oregon to join the Big Ten, but mostly because of the new matchups against teams like Michigan or PSU.

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/26/2023 at 2:33 PM, Thomallister1291 said:

Indeed, I want Oregon to join the Big Ten, but mostly because of the new matchups against teams like Michigan or PSU.

 

On 6/26/2023 at 2:33 PM, Thomallister1291 said:

Indeed, I want Oregon to join the Big Ten, but mostly because of the new matchups against teams like Michigan or PSU.

 

With 18 teams and more likely 20 teams, how often will these 2 schools be on the football schedule unless one is a permanent football partner as is the case with UCLA and Michigan? SC will not play Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State every season. SC does play all 3 schools in 2024, at Ohio State and Penn State, and plays Michigan at home but the Trojans also play at Maryland and Illinois.

 

Add Notre Dame and LSU to the 2024 schedule without Caleb Williams at QB and good luck, yuck yuck, Trojans.