Apple Emerging as Media Partner for Pac-12 - Primarily Streaming

[Annie]

As I understand it, Apple TV means no commercials? If so, does this mean the games would be over in 3 hours or less?

[Tandaian]

Not likely Annie.  NFL Prime video games aren't any shorter than network TV games for the NFL.

[Annie]

On 8/2/2023 at 8:37 AM, Tandaian said:

Not likely Annie.  NFL Prime video games aren't any shorter than network TV games for the NFL.

Thanks, and drat!

[Wrathis]

On 8/2/2023 at 10:51 AM, cartm25 said:

Again, the American and Sun Belt conferences have been streaming on ESPN+ for years, so not sure how the Pac-12 is leading anything.

 

Also, the B1G and SEC are partnered with some of the worlds richest and most successful companies in Fox and ESPN/Disney, respectively . . . oh, and they both have streaming capabilities.

 

Where is the overwhelming advantage the Pac-12 has over other conferences when said conferences have similar relationships with powerful companies that have streaming capabilities . . . and could switch over seamlessly when most advantageous?

 

Here's the timeline as I recall it:

 

- Pac-12, B1G, and ACC all make an alliance and we are assured that realignment among the three conferences are not part of discussions.

 

- The Pac-12 ensures that all teams are united and looking forward to making a new deal.

 

- USC / UCLA leave the conference.

 

- Oregon wishes to join the B1G and/or are offended that they weren't invited.

 

- Negotiating period begins and we were all ecstatic that we can finally dump Larry's leftovers and, instead, be all over linear TV (ESPN, Fox, NBC, CBS, etc.) without exclusions like Direct TV, etc. I'm happy to be proved wrong, but at the outset, I don't recall anyone yelling, "No to ESPN, Fox, NBC, and CBS. Let's go for all streaming on Amazon or Apple!"

 

- Months and months go by and still no media deal . . . now the rumors of streaming partners having minimal number of games start.

 

- Many more months go by and still no media deal, and rumors indicate ESPN/Fox are not big players . . . rumors of streaming partners having a substantial number of games.

 

- Rumors of Colorado leaving for the B12--derided as untrue (by GK himself) and fearmongering--come to fruition. Colorado leaves the Pac-12.

 

- Rumors of AZ, ASU, and Utah potentially leaving for the B12.

 

- Reports of agreement with Apple being the primary carrier of games.

 

If you're trying to convince me that where the Pac-12 is now was the part of the ORIGINAL (i.e., from the beginning), revolutionary, visionary plan all along . . . well I don't believe that.

 

The Pac-12 is NOT in a better position now than back in May of 2022 before USC/UCLA left for the B1G.

 

There's intentional innovation for innovation's sake (e.g., Apple inventing the iPhone), and there's innovation because you're forced into it. Both can be positive, but to me, it's clear that the Pac-12 is going the streaming route because their preferred options are no longer there.

 

Like going backpacking in deep wilderness and forgetting the tent. Yep, now you're forced to get innovative. You'll survive, but it doesn't mean you're better off than the alternative of having a tent.

I don't think the argument being made is that we're better off now, I think it's that maybe the sky isn't falling and we aren't doomed or dead on arrival. There can be positives that come out of this fiasco that Leisure Suit Larry

 

and the inept presidents put us in. From what I've seen the B1G or B12 aren't (or haven't) sent us an invite and even if they do, we'll still have all the travel issues etc that we've outlined USC/UCLA will have. And for what it's 

 

worth as someone that has done civilian SERE training and is ex-military, keeping a clear head and positive mental attitude while being stuck in the deep wilderness is as or even more important for survival than almost 

 

anything else...

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/2/2023 at 9:01 AM, Wrathis said:

I don't think the argument being made is that we're better off now, I think it's that maybe the sky isn't falling and we aren't doomed or dead on arrival.

Precisely.

[Jon Joseph]

The Athletic's, Stewart Mandel, was one of the few national media pundits to attend Pac-12 Media Day. Going back to his Northwestern undergraduate days he has a soft spot for the Pacific Conference and what the Rose Bowl once meant to the B1G and the Pac.

 

His Mailbag today was full of Pac questions, many not surprisingly dealing with the Pac including a critique of Dan Lanning's new contract which Stewart dismissed while noting that the question came from a reader in Seattle. The Athletic site has an inviolate, at least for someone with my rudimentary tech levels, paywall. So forgive the length of this post but I think Stewart's response as to whether a merger of the ACC/Pac and creating a Coast-to-Coast conference would make sense in today's conference realignment game of musical shares.

 

"As streaming services go. Apple+ seems to have a pretty high hit rate. 'Ted Lasso,' 'Severance,' The Morning Show,' and 'Shrinking' (oh, the irony!), all rank among my favorite shows of the past three years. If that's where the Pac-12 lands, it will be in pretty good company. But as of this writing (8/2/23), there was still a decent chance that the (pac-12) logo lands at the bottom of the Pacific."

 

As to the idea of a Coast-to-Coast conference. "Yep, you may be on to something.

 

Although a conference that expands from the Pacific Northwest to South Florida makes no sense geographically, it may be the best option either side has going for it. Note that ACC commissioner Jim Phillips (once a member of the ill-fated Alliance) said at conference media days they've spent considerable time on expansion to see if there is anything that fits. Also, note that there are no value-added expansion candidates in the eastern half of the country. A Memphis or USF would not move the needle.

 

You know who would? Oregon and Washington.

 

These two have to be exploring all possible avenues right now. Like Florida State, Clemson, and Miami, both programs aspire to win national championships but don't have an obvious path to make the money SEC and B1G contenders do. The Big Ten seems less interested in future westward expansion than it did last fall, and joining the B12 would just be further resigning Oregon and Washington to a distant third.

 

Although ESPN is under no obligation to make the ACC richer if it adds more members, the West Coast schools could help boost one particular revenue stream: The ACC Network. Upgrading from nominal out-of-market subscriber fees to considerable in-market fees like the Bay Area (No. 10 in Nielson market size), Seattle (No. 12), and Portland (No. 22) could generate significantly more revenue. Not enough to match the Big Ten/SEC, but enough to close the gap in a meaningful way. 

 

I don't think a full merger of 23 (as of this writing) teams is realistic., but logistically the ACC couldn't just add two West Coast teams. I'm guessing the presidents of Duke, Virginia and North Carolina would love the idea of hobnobbing with Cal and Stanford. Maybe Arizona and ASU would be interested, too, if for no other reason than all that ESPN exposure. 

 

The logistics would be ridiculous, but we're long past the point of geographic sensibilities in realignment. It's all about moola, and right now everyone is just trying to find any possible path to making more of it."

 

Far from a definitive answer but before the $ and logistics are sorted out how there can be a definitive answer? 

 

 

[noDucknewby]

One thing life has taught me (yeah I'm old) is that wanting something in itself, no matter badly, just doesn't make it so.  I want the Pac? to survive, but even if it does it won't ever be the same again.  This year will be the conference's swan song and ironically this is the best the conference has looked in a decade.  I'll just enjoy it one last time and hope USC and Colorado get the send-off they deserve in Autzen.

 

Granted we don't know the final details of what the new media offer will be, but all indications are that our ceiling (not floor!) is what the B12 already has.  Polish this turd all you want, it appears that we will finish this round of media deals in solid last place.  Can GK pull a rabbit out of the hat?  Will a last-minute savior swoop in with a new offer?  We can wish all we want, but at some point reality has to set in.

 

Arizona/ASU/Utah would be fools not to bail to the B12.  Geography and culture works better for them and from a B12 perspective they'd be at 16 teams approaching super conference status.  This is a win/win for all parties involved and seems inevitable to me.

 

So where does that leave OBD?  We could probably limp through until the next media round with a Pac/MWC hybrid conference but we'd no longer be in a power conference, not even second-tier like the B12 or ACC.  Our brand is strong, the conference not-so-much and really we need both to compete for playoff spots.

 

Beg, borrow, steal, do whatever it takes to get into the B1G or risk dwindling into irrelevance.  I don't like it but I just don't see how we get what we've been striving for all these years by staying in the Pac.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by noDucknewby

[Santa Rosa Duck]

Apple is the largest publicly traded company in the world. Apple TV is just a tiny part of that but do you think the Apple TV executives intend to stay small? Not a chance. Apple TV in 4-5 years will be a monster IMHO and our DUCKS will have great exposure. I have Apple TV now and the content and 4K streaming quality are excellent. I say bring it on!

[noDucknewby]

On 8/2/2023 at 10:44 AM, Santa Rosa Duck said:

Apple is the largest publicly traded company in the world. Apple TV is just a tiny part of that but do you think the Apple TV executives intend to stay small? Not a chance. Apple TV in 4-5 years will be a monster IMHO and our DUCKS will have great exposure. I have Apple TV now and the content and 4K streaming quality are excellent. I say bring it on!

You may be right, but do we really want to wait 4-5 years for that to happen and risk irrelevancy in the meantime?

 

The power brokers for the CFP are ESPN/Fox and the B1G/SEC.  How is Apple going to help us there?  Are we going to see Duck highlights from Apple TV on Sports Center?

[Jon Joseph]

On 8/2/2023 at 1:42 PM, cartm25 said:

Is this not "cable" with a new coat of paint? This is what YouTube TV does . . . "cable" but streamed.

 

Some company is going to have to make this happen, and it won't be for free. Cable swapped out for a new "middle-man"?

 

Unless it "exceeds", this is still a transfer of viewership methods, not an expansion of new viewers.

 

I'm not sure anyone is arguing that streaming isn't coming, but that the "advantage" isn't clear; I would argue nearly non-existent.

Cart, I demur. The advantage isn't clear? It's certainly clear to the folks at Disney. And the #1 company rumored to be in the mix to buy all of or a significant portion of ESPN stock is Apple. 

 

Disney has made it absolutely clear that it wants to jettison ESPN and that if it continues to own ESPN, ESPN sports broadcasts are moving to streaming sooner rather than later. There is no way IMO that the SEC deal with ESPN that commences in 2024 and runs for 10 years will not have a significant number of events streamed. 

 

Peacock is streaming 8 B1G games this season. I expect this number will along with Fox and CBS joining the streaming parade, jump to at least 50% of the broadcasts of B1G inventory before the B1G deal ends 7 years from 2024.

 

I hope that Oregon will not be silly enough to enter into any long-term deal, at least not without an early out with the payment of a marginal exit fee if that. Even a 5-year new deal for the Pac will expire before the ACC, B12, B1G, and SEC deals. So long as Oregon is not locked into a long-term deal what's the downside for Oregon? Going to the B12 for an extra $11M a year even if only the new deal floor of $20M is achieved, is not a viable, long-term option. And I continue to hold out hope that the new Pac deal with have a linear agreement to bridge the gap before streaming becomes the rule and not the exception.

 

I believe that with the changes coming in technology and the delivery of technology, the proposed deal with Apple, as we understand it, will give the Pac-Whatever, the opportunity to close the gap on the ACC, sans its network deal and the B12. Only BYU among the 5 schools added to the B12 to date draws close to 1M viewers on average for football games. TCU is just behind Oregon drawing slightly over 2M viewers on average for football How do you think the TCU powers-that-be feel about giving the newbies an equal share of the proceeds? Adding the schools it has added to date does not assure the B12's survival, far from it.

 

I am 76 years old and I have seen this movie before. New tech being dissed by people vested in the old way of doing things. 

 

You could be absolutely correct in your concern but I believe streaming will eliminate or come close to eliminating, linear broadcasts by 2023.  

[Wrathis]

On 8/2/2023 at 12:29 PM, cartm25 said:

Based on prior posts, I would believe that you and I see differently on this issue . . . BUT

 

There's nothing I disagree with in your post.

 

I'm not in the "doomed or dead on arrival" group. But I'm also not in the "streaming is revolutionary and visionary" group that believes this gives the Pac-12 some advantage over other conferences that the other conferences will have to catch up to.

 

From all indications, all other major conferences will make more money and have greater national exposure than the Pac-12 over the course of the new contracts.

 

Add to that, the other conferences are partnered with massive companies that have streaming capabilities, and can switch over at their leisure when it makes the most sense.

 

I've been streaming since 2015. I don't fear streaming, but I struggle to see the ADVANTAGE the Pac-12 has over other conferences that have access to the exact same benefits, all while they enjoy more money and national exposure than the Pac-12 over the next 5-10 years.

 

I found a bit of humor yesterday: Those that argue streaming will give the Pac-12 an advantage other conferences will have to catch up to, also lauded how the proposed piece of the Apple deal that provides bonus payouts to the Pac-12 if certain subscription milestones will enable . . . wait for it . . . the Pac-12 to "CATCH UP" to the Big 12.

 

If the deal "as rumored" (I understand this could change) is accurate, then the Pac-12 will, quite literally, be playing catch up to all the other conferences.

I hear you, I really do. Now tell me, what other avenue are you wanting to pursue? A B1G invite? So far we don't have one that any of us are aware of. How much of a reduced share are you willing to take, will it offset our travel costs (and toll on the athletes) and does playing there increase our odds at making the playoff? Is the goal money at any expense or is it making the playoff (and the payday that comes with that) and a chance at a Championship? 

 

Would you prefer we grovel at the feet of the B12 while leaving the PAC to die? I figure we'd have a good shot at winning the B12 and making the playoff from there, of course that depends on whether the B12 chooses to send the invite. It wasn't that long ago we thumbed our noses at that conference and I'd be willing to bet they remember that...

Also remember being tied to ESPN or Fox comes with the caveat that they didn't want us, or at least they don't seem to want us now. We aren't calling the shots, we're sitting outside on our hands hoping for the best instead of looking at who does want us and how to make that work in our favor.

 

We ARE a national brand, in the furthest corner from where the media lives and operates, 4 hours behind the rest of the country. We claim to have a national following but can't even count on our own fans to spend the ($10?) money it takes to support that brand. What does that tell you? Instead we're worried about how many people can see what some of us aren't apparently even willing to pay to watch.

 

So what DO we have? We have a conference we have to rebuild. We have to find some more Utah-like teams willing to make the investment and move the needle. I believe SDSU and SMU do that. We have an up and coming global company willing to take the risk and share in the profits based on how many like the product...and you know, based on what I've seen it's probably a losing bet b/c everyone is scared to death they'll have to temporarily flip apps and pay per month what a cup of coffee at Starbucks costs...Good riddance.

[Jon Joseph]

A reasonable B1G invite? Yes, that is what I would like to see happen. And if it is 4 schools and not just Oregon and UW in the mix, this would do much to abate travel; especially, for non-revenue sports.

 

The B12? IMO a non-starter. BTW, when the SEC goes to 20 teams, TCU and OK State are viable candidates for expansion. The B12 deal at $31.7M a year is not, IMO, a long-term viable deal.

 

If you have the faith that I have in the Oregon brand, why the concern about being able to market the brand to a far greater audience without being restricted by limited cable broadcast agreements? 

 

We see the same facts but simply happen to be 180 degrees apart on what the impact of the facts will be. And these are simply the 'facts' known to date in a game of musical chairs that is far from over. 

 

As to what would be acceptable in a revenue share from the B1G? I defer to the people instrumental in the operation of the Athletic Department but in my FWIW opinion, $40M a year with 6 teams on the west coast would warrant a move to a conference that will be one of two standing at the end of the day.

[noDucknewby]

On 8/2/2023 at 12:31 PM, Jon Joseph said:

As to what would be acceptable in a revenue share from the B1G? I defer to the people instrumental in the operation of the Athletic Department but in my FWIW opinion, $40M a year with 6 teams on the west coast would warrant a move to a conference that will be one of two standing at the end of the day.

Spot on Jon, although IMHO if we could get B1G $ (with escalation to full share) comparable to B12 $ then that's still a huge win for us.

Edited August 2, 2023 by noDucknewby

[Wrathis]

On 8/2/2023 at 2:31 PM, Jon Joseph said:

And if it is 4 schools and not just Oregon and UW in the mix, this would do much to abate travel; especially, for non-revenue sports.

Jon, almost like you spoke it into existence.

 

On 8/2/2023 at 2:31 PM, Jon Joseph said:

If you have the faith that I have in the Oregon brand, why the concern about being able to market the brand to a far greater audience without being restricted by limited cable broadcast agreements? 

Even on this wonderful forum, I've read numerous comments from fans that are more worried about non-fans being able to see the product than they are about spending $10 (presumably) themselves for a PAC subscription and having to swap apps. 

 

On 8/2/2023 at 2:31 PM, Jon Joseph said:

As to what would be acceptable in a revenue share from the B1G? I defer to the people instrumental in the operation of the Athletic Department but in my FWIW opinion, $40M a year with 6 teams on the west coast would warrant a move to a conference that will be one of two standing at the end of the day.

Thanks for providing an answer, here's hoping if this newest rumor turns out to be true, that we are offered such a generous share.

[crazyjeff]

On 8/2/2023 at 12:31 PM, Jon Joseph said:

when the SEC goes to 20 teams, TCU and OK State are viable candidates for expansion.

Yes, If or when the SEC decides to go to 20 teams, the BIG12 will be raided again.

[Annie]

I have a friend who already has various streaming packages and cable and has decided that, rather than pay yet one more bill, will listen to Duck games on the radio if they will available only on Apple TV.

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/2/2023 at 3:46 PM, Annie said:

I have a friend who already has various streaming packages and cable and has decided that, rather than pay yet one more bill, will listen to Duck games on the radio if they will available only on Apple TV.

If Our Beloved Ducks rank below the other streaming packages--then that is quite a choice.  This person is not a big fan IMHO, when it is only ten bucks a month for four months of the year?

 

[Annie]

On 8/2/2023 at 4:05 PM, Charles Fischer said:

If Our Beloved Ducks rank below the other streaming packages--then that is quite a choice.  This person is not a big fan IMHO, when it is only ten bucks a month for four months of the year?

 

She's a big fan, but is currently at a point where she has to count her pennies (long story).

[Charles Fischer]

Sorry, but I don't have sympathy over 40 bucks...not when I put out the crazy amounts I have over the years as a fan and for the benefit of other fans.  When I hear others complain about small costs....I shake my head.

 

They'll miss the Ducks, but make sure they watch, "The Bachelor" and have that station.  Those are the choices people make, thus again--no sympathy here.  If that is their choice--so be it.

[David Marsh]

They'll also carry basketball supposedly... 

 

And the calculus there is that people will continue to just hold onto it for the basketball. 

 

Also... A ton of people forget to cancel subscriptions. So there is always that population that get it and forget it and pay for the whole year even if they are only barely using it. 

 

They are also trying to use it as a hook for other apple tv stuff. You might like something else apple tv has and keep the sun for a few more months just because you want to keep watching. 

 

But many will be only for 4 months out of a year. 

[Charles Fischer]

Sure, we can debate all this as to "who" is right, but a week from

now--with all that is unforeseen and may happen--we may realize that....

 

[HappyToBeADuck]

This,Forum simply rocks... The passion, diversity of thoughts and range of vision make this such a great place.

 

And its a safe, protected space...

 

The topics of a media deal and expansion has my head spinning and on the verge of a meltdown.

 

Its great to be alive and part of all this speed of light movement evolving around the media deal.

 

GK has said from the beginning, the very beginning that the next PAC media deal would have a substantial streaming presence. We all shared our thoughts on who that would be.

 

Apple put enough out on the table for GK to lay out the vision. Good for them...... They are a forward thinking company and a good partner for the PAC moving into the future.

 

GK also said that he wanted a linear presense. As of today that linear network has not come front and center.

 

Many, myself included, thought ESPN would take PAC After Dark games. So far thats a big no....

 

As is human nature we have Forum members going back and forth about adding or not adding another subscription. Well keep this in mind, you cable subscribers will have to add a subscription if you want all of ESPN's content within a few years. Cord cutters, too.

 

If the PAC takes the offer from Apple we have a choice to subscribe or not.  But the PAC will taken the plunge as a P5 Conference.

 

So here we are, a few days removed and nobody has left the conference, yet....

 

We heard from GK and the CEO Committee that the longer this drags on that the better the options have become for the PAC.

 

i wonder what those options are and are they still on the table as options.

 

The PAC has 3 options, IMHO!

 

Hope to get low ball offer from the BIG but know large money is on the horizon with eventual full shares. They will have to go over/thru tOSU, Michigan, Penn State and USC for one of 3 invites to the CFP....

 

A BIG Western Division could provide less travel. Maybe 2 or 3 games back east each season. Maybe $35-$40 million

 

Or they get an even lower option invite from the little league Big 12 conference for even less money. 

Maybe $31.7 million.Be the Power Brand and make CFP 3 out of 4 years.

 

I they get no invite but go with Apple, keep the PAC's core and roll the dice. Position yourself for the next round of expansion, keep your greatest rivals and make annual CFP appearances. And know that linear broadcasts will be reserved for the big games. And streaming may dominate.

 

I suppose it will be the course that meets Oregons goals.

 

On an average day, I interact with about 75 to hundred people. Most under 30 years old. They are the future.

 

Guess what phone they have? I can tell you its not an Android. If apple chooses to advertise the Pac big time, remember milluons of teenagers are on their I-Phones every minute of everyday.

 

The future snook up fast. Imagine where we be in 5 years.......

[David Marsh]

On 8/2/2023 at 8:13 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

A BIG Western Division could provide less travel. Maybe 2 or 3 games back east each season. Maybe $35-$40 million

I wrote an article about a month ago that I wasn't so sure that the B1G was a good option for Oregon.

 

Should Oregon Move to the B1G? I'm Not Convinced

FISHDUCK.COM

---

There are a lot of people talking about how getting into the B1G is a must for the Ducks to not be left behind. When the news first...

 

Getting to 5+ regular season games on the west coast does change how that math works. As it stands something that low probably doesn't pencil if there are only 1-2 games on the west coast (away games that is). But making it over half the season then the travel and travel costs really become manageable.