Famous Fearless FishDuck Forecast for 2023 Ducks

[FishDuck Article]

How much are your predictions based on your gut feel versus the facts? I like to look at the factual stats and makeup of a team when making my predictions, but ultimately–when I pull the trigger–it is from my gut. Last year I never did make a prediction because I just did not have a feel for what to expect. ...

 

Famous Fearless FishDuck Forecast for 2023 Ducks

FISHDUCK.COM

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How much are your predictions based on your gut feel versus the facts? I like to look at the factual stats and makeup of a team when making my...

[Notalot]

I begin by saying I hope that you are right and the Ducks go undefeated. I temper my expectations due to the following aspects of the team and season.

 

First and foremost the UO coaching is unlikely to overcome Kyle Whittingham, Jonathan Smith, Lincoln Riley, Kalen DeBoer, and Joey McGuire. Big game coaching against seasoned veterans will be a mighty test for the Ducks young coaches.

 

Another big game concern is special teams play. Last year’s return teams were atrocious, and punt and kickoff coverage only slightly better. Will this year’s ST play be far better? Show me.

 

You have listed the defensive backs and touted them, but last year’s play was disappointing as players lacked the skills and abilities necessary to prevail. I harbor doubt about coach Martin despite his popularity. DB play in press coverage, competing for the ball, and tackling must jump markedly for the undefeated prediction to manifest itself.

 

Finally, the players must show up and dominate in every game without let downs. This team is more likely to go 9-3 or 10-2 than 12-0 in my eyes. I previously wrote that these players have the ability to run the table, but actually doing it takes more.

 

Go Ducks.

[Haywarduck]

I like the enthusiasm, but this prediction will be more accurate after our first road game. There is just too many parts which haven't worked together, but as a Duck homer, I with you, 12-0!

[Log Haulin]

On 8/30/2023 at 3:37 AM, Notalot said:

You have listed the defensive backs and touted them, but last year’s play was disappointing as players lacked the skills and abilities necessary to prevail.

Bridges, in his first year as a starter, was shaky to start the season. By the end of the season Bridges was close to being a lockdown corner. 3 int and a forced fumble.

 

Last years DB's had Gonzalez. A true lockdown and a first round pick in the draft. 

 

There was a ton of pressure on the back end of the D. Considering there was no pass rush, they made some gains. It hard to buy into that they "lacked skill and abilities.."

 

I think Ducks led the conference in int's last year. Would like to know where they stood with chunk plays 10yrds+. 

[Smith72]

I agree with you, Charles, this to me is the improvement from last year that we need:

"To me, the additions in the portal by Dan Lanning have been astounding, and it has been hard to believe he could attract this many in such a short time. The portal transfers transformed the Oregon offense in 2022, and we will see a similar jump in performance from our defense in 2023."

 

Nothing wrong with being a homer.  Especially when we see all the additions to the defense. I always look through my Duck Fan glasses.  If you don't go into every game expecting to win you're defeating yourself.  12-0 !!!

 

Thanks for giving us something to ponder on!  Let the games begin!

 

Go Ducks!

[HappyToBeADuck]

A few months back, in a conversation with Charles (aka the homer) we were discussing the possibility of OBD's going 12-0 in the regular season.

 

With a fifth year, former 5☆ starter, top 5 running back and receiving groups the offense will light up the scoreboard. With the running clock the offense can grind it out and run out the clock. This limits the number of plays the other team can run. Keeping Williams, Penix and other future NFL QB's on the sidelines is great defense.

 

Bo and the Duck O will win 10 games this season. 5 games will be nail biters but this unit will get it done.

 

The D will step up at home against usc and the dangerous, angry, wounded beavers........

 

To get to 12-0 the Duck D must bring their A plus game against utah and the resurgent huskies. No road wins without the D causing chaos and getting turnovers.

 

The road game in Lubbock will be a great place for the D to set the tone for the season. Put the PAC on notice that the Duck D will be a force to reckon with.

 

I have zero trust in special teams because for almost a decade they have not been remotely special. Its a weakness for sure.

 

Cam Lewis will win at least one game with a game ending, game winning field go.

 

Go Ducks........

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/30/2023 at 3:37 AM, Notalot said:

This team is more likely to go 9-3 or 10-2 than 12-0 in my eyes.

It is easy to go the safe route, but this team has all the pieces--some of which have been solved and we have not seen yet.  THAT is called faith, and where a fearless prediction comes from.

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/30/2023 at 6:01 AM, Haywarduck said:

this prediction will be more accurate after our first road game

Then it is not a prediction; it is an observation that everyone will agree with, thus not very fearless.

[Jon Joseph]

On 8/30/2023 at 6:37 AM, Notalot said:

I begin by saying I hope that you are right and the Ducks go undefeated. I temper my expectations due to the following aspects of the team and season.

 

First and foremost the UO coaching is unlikely to overcome Kyle Whittingham, Jonathan Smith, Lincoln Riley, Kalen DeBoer, and Joey McGuire. Big game coaching against seasoned veterans will be a mighty test for the Ducks young coaches.

 

Another big game concern is special teams play. Last year’s return teams were atrocious, and punt and kickoff coverage only slightly better. Will this year’s ST play be far better? Show me.

 

You have listed the defensive backs and touted them, but last year’s play was disappointing as players lacked the skills and abilities necessary to prevail. I harbor doubt about coach Martin despite his popularity. DB play in press coverage, competing for the ball, and tackling must jump markedly for the undefeated prediction to manifest itself.

 

Finally, the players must show up and dominate in every game without let downs. This team is more likely to go 9-3 or 10-2 than 12-0 in my eyes. I previously wrote that these players have the ability to run the table, but actually doing it takes more.

 

Go Ducks.

Sir Notalot, a realistic and sound POV. I do hope Chalres' gut is all good. But 12-0 would be a first since CU and Utah joined the conference. 4 games against top 25 competition, another one in the 13th game if Oregon makes the trip to Las Vegas, and Texas Tech now ranked #26 could sneak into the Top 25 with a good showing Saturday in Laramie. (TT is -14.)

 

I'm with Charles, if the 2023 Ducks bring the A game they should win every game on the schedule. But this a tough ask for college football players who have a lot of stuff going on in addition to football. Last season Oregon and Bo brought a B- game to The Palouse and it almost cost Oregon a loss that would have altered, perhaps, the entire course of the season. 

 

Every team in the conference is fired up to play the Ducks as Texas Tech will be in Lubbock. The Ducks will need steady on-field leadership on D. The same leadership Bo brings on O.

 

Troy Franklin is the man. But I'm looking to Tez Johnson to bring the jets at WR and as a punt returner.

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/30/2023 at 7:09 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

I have zero trust in special teams because for almost a decade they have not been remotely special. Its a weakness for sure.

I do, because Dan Lanning is a problem-solver.  We needed better punting, and he had four competing for the punting spot with a final two being decided for the starter this week.  There is a pattern of getting a boatload of recruits and transfers to solve an issue with Lanning.

 

Kris Hutson was safe as a punt catcher, but Tez Johnson returned punts extremely well at his last stop, and we have seen his fast-twitch in the Spring Game that suits punt returns ideally.

 

Gary Bryant II was the leading kick-returner at USC in 2021 as a freshman, and sat out last year.  I believe one or more of the new defensive backs or WRs will also step in...and I expect to see Rodrick Pleasant--with his extraordinary speed--being tested back there yet this season.

 

Special Teams will be special again under Lanning...

 

Onside kick recovered...

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/30/2023 at 3:37 AM, Notalot said:

You have listed the defensive backs and touted them, but last year’s play was disappointing as players lacked the skills and abilities necessary to prevail. I harbor doubt about coach Martin despite his popularity. DB play in press coverage, competing for the ball, and tackling must jump markedly for the undefeated prediction to manifest itself.

You are making an observation that we all noted, but most important--Dan acted on it.

 

This coach goes out and solves problems like no coach I've ever seen. We needed help at defensive back, and he went out and got four experienced, savvy players from the portal? Did you see the crisp tackling, and the tight coverage in the Spring Game? We have not witnessed that in a long time, and I believe this is the deepest group at defensive back ever at Oregon.  The starters will be good, but the next level will be-just-as-good, and we have not seen that at Oregon before.

 

Consider Nikko Reed transferring from Colorado; why would he come here? By that time he could see that there were eight very experienced DBs already at Oregon...how was he going to start? Gonzo tweeted from the Patriot training camp that Reed was a stud who replaced him at Colorado, and will be a star at Oregon....yet all those DBs are already here? How did Dan Lanning convince Reed to come to Oregon?

 

I wrote an article (linked in the article) about the freaks needed to implement this defense; last year we did not have any at the three freak positions.  This year we have an abundance of talent that will be stacked at the STAR, the MONEY linebacker and the JACK linebacker.  The fifth defensive back, the STAR has to be an extraordinary player, and Lanning went out and got a couple of them.

 

You will see a massive jump in performance from the defensive backs; why?  Because the four transfers have already performed at a high level at Colorado, Fresno State, Ole Miss and Alabama.

 

Nikko Reed has already done it in Pac-12 Games...

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/30/2023 at 7:09 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

With a fifth year, former 5☆ starter, top 5 running back and receiving groups the offense will light up the scoreboard.

When do you have a Heisman Trophy candidate, a 5th year senior returning at QB? And one of the top RBs in the nation? And eight experienced OLs, tons of proven talent at WR and TE?

 

Almost never.

 

This is a very special year with all the experience, tons of game experience returning. This will be our best shot in a few years, IMHO.

 

[Jon Joseph]

Fabulous Fearless Forecast For Football Fans From FishDuck! (Alliteration: An Amazing Artistic Attribute.)

 

"A man's reach should exceed his grasp/Or what's a heaven for?" Robert Browning (I've heard that Rob made bank betting the Over?)

 

I LOVE the optimism. On paper, the parts are in place for a better-than-good gut showing. 

 

"Fortus Fortuna Adiuat - Fortune Favors the Brave." Terence (Terry also scored. In his case, betting on the Hippodrome horse races.)

 

Charles, bet on the Ducks winning the Natty. +4000 would be a nice payday. 

 

Great gutsy gut guess! I would expect no less. 

[Charles Fischer]

My Duck-Buddies....did I write that Dan Lanning is a problem solver?

 

We did not have a pass-rush last year, and for Spring Football he had 12 Edge Rushers?  Twelve? You only need four or five, but he wanted to be certain, so between portal transfers and hs recruits--he had 12 auditioning for the Edge-Rusher/JACK linebacker position.

 

Who does that? What coach actually pulls that off in his first year?

 

It is one thing to say you are going to solve the problem, but does the coach have the recruiting chops to actually make it happen?

 

This guy does, and DID.

[Haywarduck]

On 8/30/2023 at 7:44 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Then it is not a prediction; it is an observation that everyone will agree with, thus not very fearless.

I have no problem making the fearless prediction you propose so eloquently. To be truly 'fearless' one would have to put money on it, right? Picking the Ducks to go 12-0 and being right would be extremely lucrative if money was fearlessly put on the prediction.

 

My bet is the odds would still be pretty lucrative after a road win, but the knowledge about the team a bit more complete. There is being fearless, and then there is being thorough. If I am going to be fearless, I need a bit more info is all I am saying.

 

 

2023 College Football Win Totals Odds

WWW.VEGASINSIDER.COM

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2023 College Football Win Total betting odds for regular season over/under win totals provided by VegasInsider.

 

[Charles Fischer]

Fearless is putting it in print--where the trollers can turn to later.  It is easy to say, "put money down," when you have not had hundreds of people in the past denigrate you badly for predictions made as I have.

 

When reading a thread where everyone is insulting you, and it makes you sick to your stomach...(as happened a few years ago) that tempers what you write and how you write it in the future.  You have not experienced it as I have.

 

Thus making this prediction makes it all the more fearless, considering the tons of people later who, if things with the season don't turn out will...

 

[Log Haulin]

On 8/30/2023 at 9:09 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Fearless is putting it in print--where the trollers can turn to later.  It is easy to say, "put money down," when you have not had hundreds of people in the past denigrate you badly for predictions made as I have.

 

When reading a thread where everyone is insulting you, and it makes you sick to your stomach...(as happened a few years ago) that tempers what you write and how you write it in the future.  You have not experienced it as I have.

 

Thus making this prediction makes it all the more fearless, considering the tons of people later who, if things with the season don't turn out will...

 

I say put it out there. It's none of my buisness what others think. I don't have to be rhe smartest guy in the room. 

 

Two I made was the Nix trasfer would be a success and that Ducks would be in B1G by the start of 23 season. Got those two right. 

[Haywarduck]

On 8/30/2023 at 9:09 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Fearless is putting it in print--where the trollers can turn to later.  It is easy to say, "put money down," when you have not had hundreds of people in the past denigrate you badly for predictions made as I have.

 

When reading a thread where everyone is insulting you, and it makes you sick to your stomach...(as happened a few years ago) that tempers what you write and how you write it in the future.  You have not experienced it as I have.

 

Thus making this prediction makes it all the more fearless, considering the tons of people later who, if things with the season don't turn out will...

 

Oh I have lost jobs, money, relationships because of stating facts. I know how difficult it is to state what you know or believe, and the equation one should do when making that choice.

 

I also don't give a rip when I upset somebody with my opinion, or when I state a fact I believe is important for people to consider.

 

I have actually learned to enjoy it as it means I have had an impact. My latest bombshell should be coming out soon, and I am ready for the blowback, it is that important. 

 

I can agree neither of us has experienced exactly what the other has.

 

I am just stating we will know more about the many variables which will effect this team after game 2. I can also respect the fearlessness you are showing, although I may not understand it firsthand.

 

One fix is to make the opposite prediction and have that to fall back on. Isn't that what many pundits do? I suppose that would be a fearless prognosticator with no integrity.

[Ducko]

Wow I love your optimism and have faith in Coach Lanning.  And I agree with your opinions on transfer portal additions on depth and what may be our toughest game.  OSU will be a challenge not only for the reasons you stated but they are also a very good football team with possibly the best QB they have ever had and I believe the best Head coach they have ever had.  
 

But I cannot get past out biggest weakness last year.  Our defense.  Our defense didn’t lack talent last year.  Yes we had injuries but it had several 5 stars and many 4 star players. But our defense and special teams were really bad last year.  And in my opinion the main weakness our defense had remains with the team.  Tosh Lupoi.  When I read your great synopsis, ,it reads as if our defensive coordinator was Dan Lanning, Lupoi is not mentioned.  I wish that were the case.  And I am aware that Lanning hired defensive help and I believe made him co defensive coordinator but to me that’s putting a bandaid on a major wound.  So I am so hopeful that your correct. I would absolutely love to be wrong about Lupoi but he has to earn respect and he has not come close.  
 

So appreciate all that you do, fantastic read.  We do have the players to make it happen. 

[mikethehiker]

On 8/30/2023 at 10:14 AM, Ducko said:

And in my opinion the main weakness our defense had remains with the team.  Tosh Lupoi.

I almost brought our defensive coordinator up yesterday and decided not to, but it's a valid perspective.  I remember last year we thought the defense was going to carry the team based on the most impressive front 7 Oregon had ever assembled on paper. It wasn't that it wasn't as good as we all wanted, it was the reality that we didn't see the improvement we should have seen over the course of a season from a defense with an outstanding coordinator who could diagnose issues and mitigate shortcomings with great scheme.

 

[mikethehiker]

For the record, I think 12-0 is bold and achievable.  The bold part of the equation is avoiding injuries and overcoming the psychology of going unbeaten.  You have to play with a chip on your shoulder every week.  Being ranked #15 and picked to finish fourth in the conference should eat away at the team all season long along with Kirby Smart's infamous remark, "We have better players."

 

The psychology of a perfect season is so fascinating.  Having one loss takes a lot of pressure of the mind and one loss can teach so many lessons and grow a team in a way that 12 wins just can't.  Either way, I want to win the PAC12's final season, whether that's 1, 2, or 3 losses.

[Charles Fischer]

Yep, I wrote that last year, and believed it at the time. That is why, when you actually put it out there for thousands to read, it makes predicting a bit more fearless.

 

(Because people like you come back to fry me for sticking my neck out)

 

I have written about this before, but last year we did not have the pass rushing skills needed, and we learned that in the second game of the year. Thus, the rest of the year the Ducks were in a very conservative defense, and when added to the injuries, along with the lack of skill, we were left with the less that an impressive defensive line performance. 
 

A big difference compared to last year, is the addition of Birch and Matayo, which will free up the skills of those on opposite sides, as well as the middle, in addition to Popo being back and a healthy Brandon Dorlus.

 

But of course, we will have to see it on the field, but then, once we do—it is no longer a prediction!

[Steven A]

No team has ever gone 9-0 in conference.  Why not us? 

 

Let's go for bookends.  We won the first Pac 12 CShip in 2011 and now the last.   

 

I agree with Charles on the first 12 games. 

 

For the year, 13 - 1, loss in semi at CFP.

 

Go Ducks!

[JDuck]

15-0.  Defense will be much better, enough so that our potent offense will outscore USuC twice, LSU in the semis, and Georgia in the finals.  Just need to hold them under the point total our offense racks up.  Last time I checked, if you score more than them, you win.  Natty.

[DanLduck]

On 8/30/2023 at 1:09 PM, Steven A said:

No team has ever gone 9-0 in conference.  Why not us? 

 

Let's go for bookends.  We won the first Pac 12 CShip in 2011 and now the last.   

 

I agree with Charles on the first 12 games. 

 

For the year, 13 - 1, loss in semi at CFP.

 

Go Ducks!

If we go undefeated in the Pac this year, with how deep it is, who will beat us in the semi?!?

No, if Charles is right, then we play for the Natty.

[Jon Joseph]

The Athletic's 2023 Football Hope-O-Meter comes in at 100% for Oregon fans. And also 100% for opponents Texas Tech and UW.

 

SC is in the mid-90s percentile. Apparently, a few SC fans recognize that this is not Arena Football and at least some D has to be played.

 

Stanford fans come in at a robust 0%.

Edited August 31, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[Mic]

Love the alliteration, Charles.  Oh, and the optimism too.  I thought I was going out on a shaky limb predicting 11 wins.  Fearless is right!

Go Ducks!

[mikethehiker]

On 8/30/2023 at 1:00 PM, Charles Fischer said:

(Because people like you come back to fry me for sticking my neck out)

Ha, sorry Charles.  I didn't even see who the author was.  It took me a long time just to find the article.  Trust me that I believed it too!  And I believe it will be improved this year as well - but that means the coaches have to get more out of the players and put them in positions to be successful.  I believe the players we got in the transfer portal are more versatile than those we lost.

 

My prediction is 14-1 with a national title.  No one is getting through conference unbeaten.  However, we'll win the title and our experience at QB will be the difference against Ohio St., Georgia, or Alabama for the title.

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/31/2023 at 9:15 AM, mikethehiker said:

My prediction is 14-1 with a national title.

You make my fearless look punny.  I predicted a regular season record, and let it go at that, but YOU....whew!

[Mic]

On 8/31/2023 at 9:15 AM, mikethehiker said:

My prediction is 14-1 with a national title.  

National Title in year 2.  Oh, I wish, but that just might be a bridge too far. Pac-12's final Champion would be enough for me to be completely dazzled. Beating OSU in the Civil would make this a successful season. Winning another 10 games would still make me smile.  But a Natty?

Whew!  Either you're completely nuts or you have a large pair of family jewels.   Go Ducks!