Oregon Ducks Future Schedules - Does Rob Mullens Understand Puddles is B1G?

[Jon Joseph]

There is no way Oregon should stiff Texas Tech in 2024 and not give the Red Raiders a return game. And 8 home games in 2024 is fantastic.

 

I am only going to look at the 2024/25 schedules when asking Rob what he is doing now that OREGON is B1G time come 2024. A member of The Power 2 and a member that plays nine conference games.

 

2025 - Away - Boise State, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers, Washington.

 

NW and Rutgers are not top-drawer B1G programs but these games require a trip to Chicago and a trip to New Jersey.

 

Home - Indiana, Minnesota, Montana State, USC, Wisconsin, and P5 Oklahoma State.

 

Playing at Boise State? Does Ohio State play at Toledo, Akron, or Miami of Ohio? Does Michigan play at Eastern, Central, or Western Michigan? Of Course Not!

 

Tripping to Boise, Idaho to play in a Bandbox stadium makes no sense for a B1G league team.

 

And with this schedule, does Oregon, even though it is a home game, need a game vs. B12 Oklahoma State that is now odds on to play in the 2023 B12 Championship game?

 

In the 12-team playoff era, finishing in the top 4 of the B1G means punching a playoff ticket. IMO, there is no reason to add a P5 opponent to an already strong strength of schedule. 

 

2026 - Away - Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, USC, and Oklahoma State.

 

Playing Ohio State and USC on the road is not enough. Why a trip to Stillwater, Oklahoma? Is there a single player from Oklahoma on Oregon's roster or an Oklahoma high school player targeted as a recruit? 

 

Home - Boise State, Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern, Portland State, UCLA, and Washington.

 

If the road schedule is not tough enough, add on playing Michigan, Nebraska (Nebraska will improve under Coach Ruhle,) UCLA, and Washington at home. 

 

Another consideration when it comes to scheduling. Even games against lesser opponents, both in and out of conference, will be given complete pre and post-game coverage on the Big 10 Network (BTN.) A network with close to 70M subscribers. 

 

Should a lesser game be shown on BTN, it will not go under the radar like games covered by and shown on Larry's Lost Network.

 

IMO, drop the game at Boise (and a future scheduled game at Utah State!) and the home-and-home series scheduled against Oklahoma State and Baylor. 

 

Oregon does not need another Power 4 game on its slate. Why put money in the pockets of the B12? If you want to replace Oklahoma State and Baylor with P4 opponents, then play Stanford and/or Cal.

 

I'd rather buy home games versus San Diego State, Fresno State, and San Jose State than play a P4 opponent on top of nine conference games. These games at Autzen will draw as many or close to as many viewers as games versus the B12.

 

And home games at Autzen not only benefit the Ducks but the entire Eugene/Springfield community.

 

If Rob has to open the wallet to cancel road games against G5 opponents and P4 Oklahoma State and Baylor, please do so. 

 

BEAT SC!

 

 

[Annie]

On 11/7/2023 at 11:56 AM, Jon Joseph said:

.... And 8 home games in 2024 is fantastic.

 

..

I'll renew my season tickets, but I actually think of 8 home games as bit daunting. I usually lack energy the day after a game.

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/7/2023 at 5:49 PM, Annie said:

I'll renew my season tickets, but I actually think of 8 home games as bit daunting. I usually lack energy the day after a game.

I get it. I'm usually hungover.

[noDucknewby]

I'm with you on this one Jon.  

 

If I'm RM the first thing I do is dump BSU and pencil in the Beavs for their slot.

 

Then I cancel all future non-conference games and reschedule with former P-12 members and cupcakes.

 

We're just not going to need the extra exposure like we would have.  As a season ticket holder I'm thrilled with our upcoming schedules without any ot the existing scheduled non-cons, they just water it down IMHO.

Edited November 7, 2023 by noDucknewby

[Haywarduck]

I just don't like the whole BIG move. You put it under the bright lights with the schedule it creates.

 

Without some schedule adjustments we will at least be beat up in the playoffs. Teams in the SEC go into the playoffs relatively fresh as they schedule a pansy late in the season and don't travel much.

 

With the new BIG schedule we don't get a pansy late, and travel a ton. We better win it all this year, or it will just get tougher relative to the SEC teams.

 

I suppose nothing worth having is easy, but when teams can win it all with an easier schedule, why not us! Earn you money Rob!

[DuckFan93]

Are we really not doing Civil War any more?   Then we'd better win this year! 

 

But in all seriousness, I agree that playing Baylor and OKSt doesn't make sense.  Why not swap with our in-state OSU?

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/7/2023 at 6:49 PM, Haywarduck said:

I just don't like the whole BIG move. You put it under the bright lights with the schedule it creates.

 

Without some schedule adjustments we will at least be beat up in the playoffs. Teams in the SEC go into the playoffs relatively fresh as they schedule a pansy late in the season and don't travel much.

 

With the new BIG schedule we don't get a pansy late, and travel a ton. We better win it all this year, or it will just get tougher relative to the SEC teams.

 

I suppose nothing worth having is easy, but when teams can win it all with an easier schedule, why not us! Earn you money Rob!

However, in 2024 Michigan plays Texas and Bama plays at Wisconsin.

 

I think the ACC will continue, with its enabling of ND to stay independent, at 8. I think that the SEC will move to 9 conference games.

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/7/2023 at 7:04 PM, DuckFan93 said:

Are we really not doing Civil War any more?   Then we'd better win this year! 

 

But in all seriousness, I agree that playing Baylor and OKSt doesn't make sense.  Why not swap with our in-state OSU?

Why not Fresno State? Michigan is #3 and has the 111 SOS.

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/7/2023 at 6:10 PM, noDucknewby said:

I'm with you on this one Jon.  

 

If I'm RM the first thing I do is dump BSU and pencil in the Beavs for their slot.

 

Then I cancel all future non-conference games and reschedule with former P-12 members and cupcakes.

 

We're just not going to need the extra exposure like we would have.  As a season ticket holder I'm thrilled with our upcoming schedules without any ot the existing scheduled non-cons, they just water it down IMHO.

And why with all of the upcoming travel, trip to Stillwater, OK, and Waco, TX?

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/7/2023 at 6:49 PM, Haywarduck said:

I just don't like the whole BIG move. You put it under the bright lights with the schedule it creates.

 

Without some schedule adjustments we will at least be beat up in the playoffs. Teams in the SEC go into the playoffs relatively fresh as they schedule a pansy late in the season and don't travel much.

 

With the new BIG schedule we don't get a pansy late, and travel a ton. We better win it all this year, or it will just get tougher relative to the SEC teams.

 

I suppose nothing worth having is easy, but when teams can win it all with an easier schedule, why not us! Earn you money Rob!

I love Oregon moving to the B1G where SOS is ipso facto fine. I do not like adding P4 teams to the schedule or going on the road to Boise and Logan, Utah.

[PittDuck]

On 11/7/2023 at 11:56 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

Playing at Boise State? Does Ohio State play at Toledo, Akron, or Miami of Ohio? Does Michigan play at Eastern, Central, or Western Michigan? Of Course Not!

 

BEAT SC!

No Jon, that would be Bama!  Bwaa haa haa chuckle chortle Yuk yuk…

 

I agree with you, but couldn’t help myself!

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/7/2023 at 8:39 PM, PittDuck said:

No Jon, that would be Bama!  Bwaa haa haa chuckle chortle Yuk yuk…

 

I agree with you, but couldn’t help myself!

Bama does go on a trip to Wisconsin next year for the 1st of an H+H series. Michigan coming off of the 2 year back-to-back playing no one OOC, plays Texas in the first of a back-to-back.

 

WHY? Michigan playing no one OOC in 2023 is ranked #3. And playing no one OOC last season made the Final 4.

 

But at least these are quality P4 opponents and not B12 opponents.

 

Why do the Ducks have to trip to OK St in 2026 and to Baylor down the road? These are not impactful Playoff opponents. Everything to lose for Puddles and very little, if anything, to gain.

 

GET SMART! And Beat USC! 

[Desert Duck]

On 11/7/2023 at 4:49 PM, Haywarduck said:

I just don't like the whole BIG move. You put it under the bright lights with the schedule it creates.

 

Without some schedule adjustments we will at least be beat up in the playoffs. Teams in the SEC go into the playoffs relatively fresh as they schedule a pansy late in the season and don't travel much.

 

With the new BIG schedule we don't get a pansy late, and travel a ton. We better win it all this year, or it will just get tougher relative to the SEC teams.

 

I suppose nothing worth having is easy, but when teams can win it all with an easier schedule, why not us! Earn you money Rob!

Exactly. Why not follow the ASM -- Alabama Scheduling Model -- which has served them incredibly well over the years.

[OregonDucks]

Non conference schedules are made years in advance.
 

We’ll see how Rob Mullens adjusts the schedule going forward now that Oregon is in the B1G; however, Dan Lanning may want to keep the games in and around Texas for recruiting purposes. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/7/2023 at 9:19 PM, OregonDucks said:

Non conference schedules are made years in advance.
 

We’ll see how Rob Mullens adjusts the schedule going forward now that Oregon is in the B1G; however, Dan Lanning may want to keep the games in and around Texas for recruiting purposes. 

 

 Good thought.

 

Fine, play Rice-a-Roni. I just do not see a game at OK ST and Baylor being the deciding factor in a top-drawer HS player's decision. 

 

Come 2024, Oregon will have plenty enough on its plate, and playing in a Power 2 conference will speak for itself.

 

I think in 2024, a game against Ohio State at home and a win will have a far greater impact than playing any B12 team.

[OregonDucks]

On 11/7/2023 at 9:26 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Come 2024, Oregon will have plenty enough on its plate, and playing in a Power 2 conference will speak for itself.

 

I think in 2024, a game against Ohio State at home and a win will have a far greater impact than playing any B12 team.

Those games were scheduled up to a decade ago. Oregon just learned that it was joining the B1G conference a couple of months ago. 
 

We’ll see what Mullens decides to do but it might not be worth paying the penalty ($500K-$1M+) to cancel those games (we are not getting a full B1G media share and Oregon’s travel costs are about to increase substantially).
 

Oregon certainly shouldn’t fear Oklahoma State or Baylor. 

[2002duck]

I think we are forgetting how bad the Big Ten is on the bottom half of the conference. Our schedule will be filled with easily winnable games. 

 

The Pac-12 is history, so I say all we need to do is follow suit with what OSU, Michigan, USC, UW, and Penn St. do. Would they cancel games against Baylor or Oklahoma State because they are "afraid" of them? I don't think so. Oregon playing in Texas is also good because Texas high school kids and their coaches can go to the games.

 

I would love to play cupcake games late in the season like the SEC does, but the Big Ten won't allow it due to scheduling. Additionally, it's simply too bad that we have to play 9 conference games and SEC teams only play 8- but we can't do anything about that either.

 

If some folks are concerned about us scheduling the likes of Baylor and OK ST, well, I would not be all too surprised if the Oregon brass scheduled a home and home with Florida or LSU, so I guess be careful what you wish for. 

 

Also, I don't really feel sorry for Oregon State. If that makes me a terrible person, I'm sorry. Cancelling any game to play them is out of the question for me, and I don't really care if we only play them twice a decade, once, or not at all. 

Edited November 8, 2023 by 2002duck

[Thomallister1291]

As much as I wanted to see Oregon scheduling Alabama in a home and home series in 2035-36 due to my desires of seeing the matchup, I do at least understand why y'all want weaker opponents, I feel this year will be our biggest chance to win it all

[spartan2785]

I don't think we should cancel those games that we already have set up, smacks of cowardice to me.  Now if both teams agree to it in the new college football world we live in and there is no fee for canceling the games then I might be more up for that.

 

I certainly see the point of it though, our schedule is probably a bit harder than it was in the P12, it's sort of hard to tell right now since we haven't seen it play out.  I think it's probably harder for all the teams in the league, when we look at what Michigan has had this season they're certainly going to have a wake up call when all of a sudden they're traveling across the country to play the Pacific coast teams.

 

In the future we'll have some spots open up due to games that we scheduled in the future against B10 opponents, personally I would like to see us set up games against some of the schools from the former P12 since it would be nice to retain some ties to old foes, plus we do enough travel as it is now, set up some games against Cal or ASU, retain those recruiting grounds.

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by spartan2785

[Haywarduck]

Question, I blame the toejams for the downfall of the Pac-12, but how much did the media barons play in not bidding on the Pac-12 media rights in good faith?

 

Seems to me, especially if you look at this season, the Pac-12, as is, is worth a lot in media rights. You have the dawgs, sc, and the crown jewel Oregon, along with the novelty act of Colorado. There have been a lot of Pac-12 games this year with some big viewer numbers.

 

Maybe historically the Pac-12 just didn't add up to enough to make sense for a reasonable bid.

 

We have to put this to bed, but what does Jon, resident expert, have to say about this, thanks in advance!

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/8/2023 at 11:25 AM, spartan2785 said:

I don't think we should cancel those games that we already have set up, smacks of cowardice to me.  Now if both teams agree to it in the new college football world we live in and there is no fee for canceling the games then I might be more up for that.

 

I certainly see the point of it though, our schedule is probably a bit harder than it was in the P12, it's sort of hard to tell right now since we haven't seen it play out.  I think it's probably harder for all the teams in the league, when we look at what Michigan has had this season they're certainly going to have a wake up call when all of a sudden they're traveling across the country to play the Pacific coast teams.

 

In the future we'll have some spots open up due to games that we scheduled in the future against B10 opponents, personally I would like to see us set up games against some of the schools from the former P12 since it would be nice to retain some ties to old foes, plus we do enough travel as it is now, set up some games against Cal or ASU, retain those recruiting grounds.

 

The Pac-12 schedule Oregon has played to date is not that impressive. Utah is the only opponent with a winning record the Ducks have defeated.

 

And some of this is because teams nose-dived after being beaten up by the Ducks D. UW was darn lucky to win its next two games after a close win over Oregon. CU, WSU, and USC have flamed out. There is now one PO Committee-ranked team remaining on the schedule, Oregon State. Will the Beavers remain ranked if they lose to UW in Corvallis?

 

So yes, the bottom half of the B1G is weak but Oregon is not playing a 12. ranked Mizzou, #9 ranked Ole Miss, and at #13 Tennessee, as is Georgia. 

 

I know that Texas defeated Bama before The Tide settled on a QB but I was frankly surprised last evening to see Oregon remaining as the top-ranked 1-loss team. Oregon is getting more love for a close loss and the win at Utah than Bama is for defeating Ole Miss, Tennessee, and LSU, all 3 are ranked in the Committee's week 2 rankings.

 

'Cowardice?' I don't think so. I think it would be a prudent business decision to cancel out against 2 B12 teams, arrange for 2 more home games, and not give the B12 a ratings boost. Ohio State canceled an H+H with UW with little notice and no one accused tOSU of being cowardly.

 

 

[Lrod]

On 11/7/2023 at 2:56 PM, Jon Joseph said:

There is no way Oregon should stiff Texas Tech in 2024 and not give the Red Raiders a return game. And 8 home games in 2024 is fantastic.

 

I am only going to look at the 2024/25 schedules when asking Rob what he is doing now that OREGON is B1G time come 2024. A member of The Power 2 and a member that plays nine conference games.

 

2025 - Away - Boise State, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers, Washington.

 

NW and Rutgers are not top-drawer B1G programs but these games require a trip to Chicago and a trip to New Jersey.

 

Home - Indiana, Minnesota, Montana State, USC, Wisconsin, and P5 Oklahoma State.

 

Playing at Boise State? Does Ohio State play at Toledo, Akron, or Miami of Ohio? Does Michigan play at Eastern, Central, or Western Michigan? Of Course Not!

 

Tripping to Boise, Idaho to play in a Bandbox stadium makes no sense for a B1G league team.

 

And with this schedule, does Oregon, even though it is a home game, need a game vs. B12 Oklahoma State that is now odds on to play in the 2023 B12 Championship game?

 

In the 12-team playoff era, finishing in the top 4 of the B1G means punching a playoff ticket. IMO, there is no reason to add a P5 opponent to an already strong strength of schedule. 

 

2026 - Away - Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, USC, and Oklahoma State.

 

Playing Ohio State and USC on the road is not enough. Why a trip to Stillwater, Oklahoma? Is there a single player from Oklahoma on Oregon's roster or an Oklahoma high school player targeted as a recruit? 

 

Home - Boise State, Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern, Portland State, UCLA, and Washington.

 

If the road schedule is not tough enough, add on playing Michigan, Nebraska (Nebraska will improve under Coach Ruhle,) UCLA, and Washington at home. 

 

Another consideration when it comes to scheduling. Even games against lesser opponents, both in and out of conference, will be given complete pre and post-game coverage on the Big 10 Network (BTN.) A network with close to 70M subscribers. 

 

Should a lesser game be shown on BTN, it will not go under the radar like games covered by and shown on Larry's Lost Network.

 

IMO, drop the game at Boise (and a future scheduled game at Utah State!) and the home-and-home series scheduled against Oklahoma State and Baylor. 

 

Oregon does not need another Power 4 game on its slate. Why put money in the pockets of the B12? If you want to replace Oklahoma State and Baylor with P4 opponents, then play Stanford and/or Cal.

 

I'd rather buy home games versus San Diego State, Fresno State, and San Jose State than play a P4 opponent on top of nine conference games. These games at Autzen will draw as many or close to as many viewers as games versus the B12.

 

And home games at Autzen not only benefit the Ducks but the entire Eugene/Springfield community.

 

If Rob has to open the wallet to cancel road games against G5 opponents and P4 Oklahoma State and Baylor, please do so. 

 

BEAT SC!

 

 

This is the best post of the year.. so true 

 

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

I watched and listened to Joel Klatt on BTN Today.

 

Joel has no problem with Oregon being the highest-ranked 1-loss team especially, with Quinn Ewers out for Texas.

 

But the scheduling point he made is the following. If Alabama had played Texas State instead of playing and losing to UT, Bama would be no lower than the 4th ranked team.

 

As Joel noted, the Committee's process is to lump the undefeated teams together, then the 1-loss teams, then the 2-loss teams, etc. Thus wins for the initial view by the Committee trumps everything including SOS and SOR.

 

Until the Committee proves that it places more weight on SOS and SOR, it isn't brilliant for teams, especially B1G teams playing 9 conference games, to add a P4 team, at least a top program P4 team to the schedule.

 

I think LSU, USC, and UCLA playing one another in 2024 is a mistake for all involved. You may get an impactful win but a win weeks before the Committee comes with its first ranking. Impressing AP voters? Who cares. 

 

Michigan as of now, is #3 in the rankings with 3 OOC home games against G5 teams and no games vs. top 25 teams before Michigan plays Penn State this Saturday.

 

If you finish in the top 3 and likely the top 4 in the B1G come 2024 and thereafter, you will have a great shot at making the PO. And come to the expanded PO, making the field will be important when it comes to recruiting and of course, for the money.

 

I continue to believe that playing Oklahoma State in 2025 and 2026 would be a mistake, especially when the Ducks could buy another home game in 2026.

 

Playing on the road in Boise, Idaho and Logan, Utah speaks for itself.

 

OREGON has nothing to gain and a lot to lose playing OK ST and also Baylor.

 

Being gutsy with OOC scheduling is far less important than getting the win. Want an extra P4 game then play Cal and Stanford OOC.

[Jon Joseph]

Here's some B1G time ceiling walking.

 

The B1G adds AAU member and basketball power Kansas, and mega-brand-name Notre Dame to arrive at a 20-team conference.

 

The SEC adds Clemson, FSU, UNC, and NC State.

 

Looking ahead but using the current Committee rankings, these would be the 16 teams in a Power 2 playoff and their rankings as of today.

 

B1G 1. OH St, 3. Michigan, 5. UW, 6. OREGON, 10. Penn State, 16. Kansas, 20. Notre Dame, 22. Iowa.

 

SEC - 2. Georgia, 4. FSU, 7. Texas, 8. Alabama, 9. Ole Miss, 13. Tennessee, 14. Mizzou, 19. Oklahoma

 

LSU and Clemson, would not be left out competing for a PO spot along with UCLA, USC, Wisconsin, and Auburn.

 

Would 11. Louisville, 12. Oregon State, 15. OK St., 21. Arizona be missed or have any impact of a Power 2 media money? I don't think so.

 

G5 and what's left of the P4 hold their PO. The P2 sprinkles sugar on down as necessary to placate the naysayers.

 

The P2 PO games and the $ would be awesome and the G5 commissioners, ACC leftover, and B12 commissioners would have no say regarding a P2 PO. And via NIL or in some other manner the players would share in the P2 PO revenue.

 

BEAT SC!

Edited November 10, 2023 by Jon Joseph