Which Michael Penix Will Oregon Face Tonight?

[FishDuck Article]

We all remember some of the scenes of Washington quarterback Michael Penix appearing to be hurt in the latter stages of the game with Oregon, and we’ve heard the murmurs about his performance last week in the Apple Cup. We all assume that he will be ready, but ...

 

Which Michael Penix Will Oregon Face Tonight?

FISHDUCK.COM

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We all remember some of the scenes of Washington quarterback Michael Penix appearing to be hurt in the latter stages of the game with Oregon, and we'

[ABNMoose]

To me, this is where he might have gotten hurt, possibly a strain in the stomach muscles, maybe strained some rib cartilage? which would hurt to throw with, trying to do anything really physical. You can see him grab his stomach later after a blitz and taking a helmet in the mid-section. I think penix is going to be gun shy from the get-go, and the defense is/should be planning on hitting him as much as possible. Its part of football. 

 

[Smith72]

I have always wanted the opposing quarterback to be hit. I wanted him to hear footsteps the whole time worried about the hit.  Hit Penix every pass attempt.

 

I agree totally with everything you say Mr. FishDuck.

Let the havoc reign!  Go Ducks!

[HappyToBeADuck]

Charles thanks for the numbers that really showed Penix's performamce drop off the last half of the season.

 

I admire and respect Penix's game. He stands in there and takes those hits. Gritty and gutsy for sure!

 

He was pounded and hurt during the Duck game. It was evident in his performance the following week against the Sun Devils. The husky offensr scored no touchdown?

 

He was hurt............

 

I support your article %. The Duck Havoc Squad needs to hit Penix hard and often, within the rules! No targeting hits please!

 

KD and his OC will probably have plays called for short gains and quick releases. Sort of nickel and dime there way down the field.

 

Keeping Bo off the field is critical for the huskies to stay close in this game.

 

Penix and the husky offense will be facing a Duck D that is vastly improved the last 6 games. On 6 different occasions Duck opponents have scored 10 points or less.

 

If DL had left the 2 deep rotation in the game usc would have scored only 12 points. Let that sink in......

 

I support a good, clean game with massive hits on Penix. There must be chaos and havoc in the husky backfield, all night long.......

 

Go Ducks........

 

 

[OregonDucks]

Thank you for providing the before and after stats.

 

On 1080 AM Portland, after the Husky game, someone said that it was questionable whether Penix would be able to play in the last drive of the game against Oregon due to injury (ribs/core?).  He surprised everyone by sprinting on the field.

 

Penix is a warrior but he has been playing hurt. Oregon should go after him and hit him all night long. That's football.

Edited December 1, 2023 by OregonDucks

[Log Haulin]

I remember at the beginning of the season, there was a lot of talk amongs coaches, players and fans about being feared. We want opposing teams to fear playing Oregon defense. Mission accomplished? We will see.

 

I hate the Huskies. I want them ground into the turf. I want their fans and players hearts ripped out and stomped on. Seriously injured... No. But battered and bruised, yep! If we take a PF in the process, so be it.

[Mic]

Hurt or not I think Oregon wins this game.  A healthy Penix is a real threat and the sportsmanship way is to want to beat your opponent at his 100% best.  I think Oregon will beat UW, even if Penix is 100%.  Oregon's the better team.  Bo is the better "Quarter-back".

Edited December 1, 2023 by Mic

[EastBayDuckDad]

On 12/1/2023 at 6:24 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

I support a good, clean game with massive hits on Penix. There must be chaos and havoc in the husky backfield, all night long.......

Keep the hits clean, no emotional, late or stupid hits. No targeting, dammit! 15 yards for roughing the passer on a bang bang play will happen periodically but think about losing Dorlus or Burch to a targeting call in the 2nd quarter. That is the kind of bad that could flip this game to Fusky. 

 

Yeah, hit the guy early and often. He rapidly loses his throwing platform and gets inaccurate when he's about to get smacked. Let him constantly hear the pitter-patter of size 15 webbed feet. Make him have gametime single digit nightmares where the numbers #0, #1, #2, #3, #4, #5 and #9 float around his brain like little tweety birds. Keep him skittish and not setting his feet as he understands he won't see the next pressure that's coming. 

 

Keep it clean, smart and legit. And after every hit, sack and awkward landing, quietly reintroduce yourself saying "Hi Michael Jr, I'm Jordan, Brandon, Jeffrey, Tysheem, Jamal, etc. and I thought about you all week. Wanted to let you know that #33 is coming by next. Oh yeah and Bo for Heisman"

[woundedknees]

.A couple possibilities come to mind... one is very difficult for medical professionals to identify.

The first is soft tissue damage to the joints in Penix's throwing arm or between his ribs. (I once tore the cartilage at the base of my sternum, when a spectator at a cross country race I was participating in, opened her car door as I ran by. Hitting that door at full speed still hurts!)

The other, more subtle possibility, which I once heard heard described by a surgeon as 'insidiously difficult' to spot, short of surgery, involves the core abdominal tissues.

 

In some cases, the white connective tissue between the muscles of the core wall may be torn, either by excessive stress or impact. During the course of the healing process, a severely constricting amount of scar tissue can develop, resulting in severe pain and reduced flexibility.

 

In severe cases, such as my wife experienced following a slow roll over MVA, after which she was suspended by her seat belt, upside down, until a good Samaritan with a sharp knife cut her down, it can become an excruciating experience.

 

More than two months after the accident, she began experiencing pain and cramp like symptoms that were difficult to believe.

 

she was transported from the jail (She was a supervising night cook at the time) to the ER. The pain kept up at levels so strong that her bruised the hand I was holding hers in with a grip so hard I couldn't pick up a cup of coffee for several days afterward.

 

The doctors ran exhaustive tests, identifying nothing that made sense.

 

The consensus was that it was "all in her head"...

 

A surgeon (His name was 'Ngo', pronounced NO!) finally decided to do exploratory surgery. He discovered a tightly woven network of heavy scar tissue, bundling and constricting the movement of her stomach muscles so much, it was nearly impossible to move.

 

Removing it took him nearly 5 hours!

 

He was deeply apologetic for not recognizing the problem earlier. Dr Ngo was also exhausted.

 

Perhaps young Mr. Penix is experiencing similar issues?

 

Edited December 1, 2023 by woundedknees

[Charles Fischer]

On 12/1/2023 at 6:24 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Penix and the husky offense will be facing a Duck D that is vastly improved the last 6 games. On 6 different occasions Duck opponents have scored 10 points or less.

That is a massive point...just huge.  Whereas the Husky offense has declined in the same time...

[Haywarduck]

Oh my, the compilation of hits was superb! Bravo for this and that had to hurt. 

 

From my experience broken ribs hurt for about a month, he is out of that window. As a young healthy guy he should be fine physically.

 

Mentally the guy is already hearing footsteps. I say those footsteps need to be real and then the mental game is won. No illegal hits, but he needs to know effective blitz's are coming.

 

Second, this is priceless, Keep it clean, smart and legit. And after every hit, sack and awkward landing, quietly reintroduce yourself saying "Hi Michael Jr, I'm Jordan, Brandon, Jeffrey, Tysheem, Jamal, etc. and I thought about you all week. Wanted to let you know that #33 is coming by next. Oh yeah and Bo for Heisman"

 

While I don't want any taunting penalties, sometimes you just don't know what to say, but I am not sure there could be a better dialogue,  I will add the next sentence might be, 'can I help you up, or do you need a moment?'

[Charles Fischer]

On 12/1/2023 at 7:53 AM, woundedknees said:

He discovered a tightly woven network of heavy scar tissue, bundling and constricting the movement of her stomach muscles so much, it was nearly impossible to move.

Wow.  Great information, as it certainly seems plausible.

 

That would mean the actual injury took place some time ago, and he is going through what your wife went through....which means that he will be very sensitive tonight?

[Charles Fischer]

For those who have a problem with hitting Penix hard early--see the video below.  It is qued up to the play I am referring to...

 

 

Did you have a problem with the hit in the video above when it happened?

 

Why not?  It put that QB out of the game?

 

[EastBayDuckDad]

On 12/1/2023 at 9:39 AM, Haywarduck said:

I will add the next sentence might be, 'can I help you up, or do you need a moment?'

Perfect ending. Even Pac-12 refs would be hard pressed to throw a flag when OBD are being such gentlemen.

[Solar]

Logical deduction would say TJ ruined Penix season, but who really knows. He's also likely been struggling with long covid, with people mentioning he's been having immune system issues basically since the ASU game.

 

Both the injury and and sickness issues would impact the amount of practice he can get, and would certainly make it much harder to maintain composure throwing when under duress.

 

I would hope at this point we've learned that the only wrong strategy with Penix is not pressuring him. You need to do it every single time he drops back. If you have to be one on one with the receivers, then so be it.

[Solar]

On 12/1/2023 at 9:39 AM, Haywarduck said:

From my experience broken ribs hurt for about a month, he is out of that window. As a young healthy guy he should be fine physically.

 

Mentally the guy is already hearing footsteps. I say those footsteps need to be real and then the mental game is won. No illegal hits, but he needs to know effective blitz's are coming.

 

Second, this is priceless, Keep it clean, smart and legit. And after every hit, sack and awkward landing, quietly reintroduce yourself saying "Hi Michael Jr, I'm Jordan, Brandon, Jeffrey, Tysheem, Jamal, etc. and I thought about you all week. Wanted to let you know that #33 is coming by next. Oh yeah and Bo for Heisman"

 

While I don't want any taunting penalties, sometimes you just don't know what to say, but I am not sure there could be a better dialogue,  I will add the next sentence might be, 'can I help you up, or do you need a moment?'

Rib injuries can heal quick, but Penix never took time off and has continued to take hits which could reinjure the area, greatly increasing the time to heal. We really can't say if he's fully recovered. Perhaps the sack at the end of the WSU game really reinjured it, who knows?

[Charles Fischer]

We can still get pressure on him with only four rushing and seven dropping back with Lanning's Simulated Pressures, where they do not know where the pressure is actually going to come from.  And we overload a side to create the pressure while have seven in coverage.

 

We will see some of that today, because we will not worry as much about Penix taking off running. Simulated Pressures are a bigger gamble against a team that has a good running quarterback as North Carolina did, and as Texas Tech had.

 

The most running yards we gave up all season was to the Red Raiders, and most of that was Tyler Shough.  I don't see that threat tonight...

[Jon Joseph]

Charles, what a great, timely, and beautifully 'illustrated' take. Thank you.

 

Here's another stat that I found to be of interest.

 

In 2023, UW passed the ball 443 times and ran the ball 323 times for a total of 766 plays. 

 

Before and including the OREGON game, UW averaged 3.86 points per possession with a 55.3% success rate. 

 

Post the OREGON game, UW averaged 2.50 points per possession with a success rate of 44%.

 

1.36 fewer points per possession.

 

This is where the rubber meets the road. And this is why post-Oregon, UW found itself in many one-possession games and finished 5-6-1 Against the Spread (ATS.)

 

OREGON finished 10-1-1 ATS with a push in Seattle and a late WSU score to keep the Ducks from getting the cover vs. the Cougars. 

 

As to your excellent 'Havoc' take - OREGON finished with 42 sacks and finished #1 in the country with .5 sacks surrendered per game.

 

UW finished with 19 sacks and tied for #3 in the country with .8 sacks surrendered per game.

 

As noted, OREGON needs to pressure Penix. On 1st and 2nd downs without pressure, Penix is #1 in the country in completion percentage.

 

OREGON comes into the game -9.5. SP+ has it OREGON by 8.4. FPI has it OREGON by 9.7.

............................................................................................................................................................

 

Assuming OREGON TCBs in LV, the most important champ game to keep an eye on is # 1. 12-0 Georgia -5.5 vs. # 8. 11-1 Alabama.

 

These two are scheduled to play in September 2024. A rare occurrence as the teams have met only twice in the regular season in the last 15 years!

 

The last game Georgia lost came 2 seasons ago. 6 point favorite UGA lost:

Alabama 41/ Georgia 24. But that loss came against an Alabama team with a high-flying offense.

 

SP+ has it Georgia by 7.2. FPI has it Georgia by .07.

 

GO DUCKS! POUND THE PUPPIES! And GO you Hairy UGA Dawgs.

Edited December 1, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[mikethehiker]

I think the key to this game is going to be containing Dillon Johnson.  It will be feast or famine between Penix and Odunze, but the Ducks cannot let Dillon Johnson get started.

 

Washington's ground game is vastly improved since our first meeting, likely due to the injury to Penix.  Let Penix and Odunze connect a few times, but don't let Johnson, Polk, or the tight end get any rhythm going.

[mikethehiker]

On 12/1/2023 at 9:49 AM, Charles Fischer said:

For those who have a problem with hitting Penix hard early--see the video below.

That hit by Evan Williams turned the whole Stanford game around.  Woke up the entire Ducks' sideline.

[Jon Joseph]

On 12/1/2023 at 1:18 PM, mikethehiker said:

I think the key to this game is going to be containing Dillon Johnson.  It will be feast or famine between Penix and Odunze, but the Ducks cannot let Dillon Johnson get started.

 

Washington's ground game is vastly improved since our first meeting, likely due to the injury to Penix.  Let Penix and Odunze connect a few times, but don't let Johnson, Polk, or the tight end get any rhythm going.

Johnson is coming off of the Apple Cup with a foot injury. What impact will this have on his play tonight?

 

One thing for certain in this game, the OREGON D has to do a better job of holding the edge than in the 1st game in Seattle. With the improved play of Burch and Matayo, I think we will see the UW run game held down like the Ducks held down the Beavers run game.

Edited December 1, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[GODUCKS15]

I think we see a gutsy strong performance from Penix. This is the biggest game of the season for him and the fuskies. It's make or break. 

 

I would expect him to come out strong knowing what happened last game. He needs to get his throws in early. This game feels like it a 4th qtr game. Which QB is doing the best in the 4th wins it. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 12/1/2023 at 1:29 PM, GODUCKS15 said:

I think we see a gutsy strong performance from Penix. This is the biggest game of the season for him and the fuskies. It's make or break. 

 

I would expect him to come out strong knowing what happened last game. He needs to get his throws in early. This game feels like it a 4th qtr game. Which QB is doing the best in the 4th wins it. 

Gutsy? Yes. Penix is a baller.

 

But I see no reason for his accuracy to bounce back to the accuracy he had in the season's 1st 6 games.

[EastBayDuckDad]

On 12/1/2023 at 10:13 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Post the OREGON game, UW averaged 2.50 points per possession with a success rate of 44%.

 

1.36 fewer points per possession.

JJ, thanks for the in depth look.The before and après OBD stats are significantly different for the Fusky offense. Much of that falls on Penix, but some on their revamped O-line and lack of production from any WR not named Odunze. 

 

Hythloday1 over at ADQ has done his usual fine job of reviewing the opponent. His insights on why the mutts have underperformed on offense since Oct 14 warrant a look.

 

Duck Tape: Film Analysis Update of Washington 2023

WWW.ADDICTEDTOQUACK.COM

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A preview of Oregon’s Pac-12 Championship opponent in Las Vegas

 

 

While Penix seems to be dealing with some issue(s) that has him at less than peak performance, watch the clip that shows him throwing a dime to #1's back shoulder for a TD against WSU. Injury or no, that is a lethal and undefendable pass that he is still capable of making. The Ducks front seven will need to put enough pressure on Penix to make that throw tough to complete.

 

 

[Desert Duck]

Some other good Penix news is that of his 8 Int's on the season, 5 of these have been over the course of his last 6 games. And he easily could have had 2 more picks last week. 

 

Also, the dude is almost a zero run threat. For the entire season, he has attempted 25 carries for -14 yards... Yes, that's minus -14 yards for the entire year. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by Desert Duck

[woundedknees]

On 12/1/2023 at 9:42 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Wow.  Great information, as it certainly seems plausible.

 

That would mean the actual injury took place some time ago, and he is going through what your wife went through....which means that he will be very sensitive tonight?

Could be. I wouldn't wish it on anyone.

She was actually very athletic until a few years ago when fibromyalgia set in. 

Go Ducks! Flagelate,  flay, and filet the fuskies!

They've earned it!

[Desert Duck]

On 12/1/2023 at 11:03 AM, Charles Fischer said:

 

We will see some of that today, because we will not worry as much about Penix taking off running. Simulated Pressures are a bigger gamble against a team that has a good running quarterback as North Carolina did, and as Texas Tech had.

 

 

 

That is a great point regarding Penix and running... or rather, not running. 

 

On the year, he has had 25 carries, for a net minus -14 yards. 

 

[kirklandduck]

On 12/1/2023 at 9:49 AM, Charles Fischer said:

For those who have a problem with hitting Penix hard early--see the video below.  It is qued up to the play I am referring to...

 

 

Did you have a problem with the hit in the video above when it happened?

 

Why not?  It put that QB out of the game?

 

Perfectly clean and legal hit.  Unfortunate that the QB had to leave the game but that's football, injuries will happen.

Pennix needs to be hit early and often in similar fashion.  If he's not sweating bullets every time he drops back then the defense is not doing its job.

[EastBayDuckDad]

On 12/1/2023 at 10:18 AM, mikethehiker said:

Washington's ground game is vastly improved since our first meeting, likely due to the injury to Penix. 

I would agree that the mutts have relied more on their ground game since 10/14, but not convinced it is that much better. It is not terribly balanced as it has depended on Johnson for >75% of the carries. If you take that insane performance against a horrid U$C run defense out of the equation, the numbers settle down quite a bit, particularly in the last two games.

 

Fuskys O-line is pretty decent in pass protect but less so when running the ball. OSU held them to 110 yds on the ground with Johnson getting most of those touches. Ditto WSU at 102 yds. Oregon played to par against the Beavs since Bo lit them up so bad through the air but Bucky and Co. rolled up 248 on the Cougs.

 

If Johnson is a bit dinged up those numbers won't even be that good against the Duck run defense. Then their offense goes back to depending on how well Penix's arm works. DeBoer and crew have been leaning away from that previously successful strategy since the Oct 14 game and probably will need the run to keep Oregon's safeties honest. If #33 and Co. can stay back in Cover 1 or even 2, while the front seven takes care of business, those Odunze daggers get harder to accomplish. 

[EastBayDuckDad]

On 12/1/2023 at 10:18 AM, mikethehiker said:

Let Penix and Odunze connect a few times, but don't let Johnson, Polk, or the tight end get any rhythm going.

It is actually the TE #37 Westover, that I'd be a bit concerned about. He has caught a few passes in important settings the last couple of games, finding gaps in and behind the LB zone coverage to move the chains. He provides Penix a short throw safety valve and has picked up some of the slack created by Polk and McMillan being less productive.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see his role expand today, particularly if their run game sputters and if the Ducks have Bassa and Jacobs pin their ears back to come after Penix. #37 is no TFerg and he isn't the greatest run blocker, but he could present an unpleasant surprise or two if left uncovered. I'm assuming DL and Tosh are going to be on top of that.

[Charles Fischer]

On 12/1/2023 at 11:42 AM, EastBayDuckDad said:

It is actually the TE #37 Westover, that I'd be a bit concerned about.

In some of our Simulated Pressures, we overload blitz one side, while the defenders on our other side will rotate back into the short hook zones.  The speed of our No. 44, freshman Teitum Tuioti is superb, and he has been used as a Spy against running QBs, and has often rotated back--right into the middle of the hook zone where the hot receiver or TE drag routes will get thrown to.

 

Great point, as that TE can be a 3rd down killer for them.

 

[mikethehiker]

On 12/1/2023 at 10:18 AM, mikethehiker said:

 

I think the key to this game is going to be containing Dillon Johnson.

 

Well, that sucked. Same play, pulling guards, over and over. 

[Just Ducky]

Both lines got butt stomped tonight 

[Desert Duck]

Which Penix? The one who consistently kicks our butt. 

[DUCati855]

Washington well deserved Pac-12 champs.

 

I don't like it. But, they earned it. Hope they represent the Pac-12 well. Man, that's hard to type.

[GODUCKS15]

On 12/1/2023 at 9:00 PM, Desert Duck said:

Which Penix? The one who consistently kicks our butt. 

And everyone elses.

[Desert Duck]

On 12/1/2023 at 10:03 PM, GODUCKS15 said:

And everyone elses.

But we're the only team to lose to them twice this year, and go 0-3 to them over the last 12 months. 

 

That's gotta be some kind of evil record.