Comparing the Ceiling of Our Offense: Bo Nix vs. Dillon Gabriel

[Solar]

I watched this YouTube video by Cam Newton that I agree with 100%.

 

And in reality it reflected how our Offense. performed last season. 

 

And then I hear from in the know individuals that Dillon's ceiling isn't as high as Bo's.

 

Then I think about how Dillon played in high pressure difficult situations, specifically against Texas.

 

Perhaps the biggest difference between last year's offense and this year's offense will be that we aren't quite as efficient as we were last year against bad to decent teams, but in more difficult circumstances against the best we will play our best football.

 

Other differences will potentially be having more plays on the ground. Running plays not out of the RPO, and more of Dillon running with the ball.

 

Thoughts?

[JabbaNoBargain]

Hard to top Bo, but I don’t think we need to. The overall talent level and depth is up across the board. With an improved D, 30 points should be enough to beat anyone we play this year.

[kirklandduck]

I do think Gabriel's ceiling is lower than Bo's.  That being said, the offense will look a bit different with him running it given that he's truly a dual threat QB.  We might see the offense revert more into a similar look that we saw in DL's first season with Dillingham managing the scheme, significantly more running by Gabriel than we saw Nix do last season.  That being said, he's a more than competent passer and I wouldn't be surprised if he floated around that 4k passing mark with around 400+ rush yards (Bo had over 4.5k passing yards last season for reference).

[OregonDucks]

I can’t stand Oklahoma but Dillon Gabriel was spectacular. He will win a lot of games at Oregon and there is no QB that I’d rather have in big games next year. There is a reason that many are picking the Ducks to challenge Ohio State in the B1G. 

[David Marsh]

On 4/30/2024 at 12:22 PM, Solar said:

Other differences will potentially be having more plays on the ground. Running plays not out of the RPO, and more of Dillon running with the ball.

Nix's first year at Oregon he ran a lot! He had the most rushing touchdowns and the third most rush yards, more than James that year. 

 

If they want to run it with the QB more we do have the depth at QB I feel to do it. Fear of Nox getting hurt I think played a major role in last year's decision for Nix to run less. 

 

Beyond that... I feel Gabriel might have an x factor Nix doesn't have but I'm not sure what that is at this point. 

 

The narrative of Nix being an exclusive short range passer is completely wrong as he did take more deep shots than the pundits give him credit for. 

[Dr Hilarius]

I’m expecting DG to be VA 2.0 and will be satisfied by nothing less.

[AnotherOD]

I got myself in a bit of trouble in a thread a while back and I certainly will own it, I didn't express my thoughts too well.

 

Bo Nix was great at Oregon and when I dabbled in a bit of perhaps criticism, it didn't go well. I've had time to reformulate the thought, so here it goes.

 

When Nix transferred to Oregon, he was borderland out of the draft. He came to Oregon to right the ship. Was he going all of a sudden to make a bunch of NFL throws, dropping balls into windows and throwing guys open. I think that is fair to say unlikely.

 

Ok, but that isn't exactly the only consideration. It's ok I think to suggest Bo arrived at Oregon with both team and personal goals.

 

I've heard the jokes about "Bo Pix"; but, even at Auburn he wasn't a guy who put the ball up in a lot of danger back then, and his interception numbers prior to Oregon weren't that bad.

 

Nix came to Oregon to rehabilitate himself and do what he does well with a fresh start. His path to the NFL was really turning some heads, putting up a huge QBR, a high completion percentage, and not turning the ball over.

 

Minus Washington it was fabulous.

 

Here is where I got in trouble. I think Bo was just programmed to mostly avoid risks. Which worked most of the time; but, to make that final step, occasionally a guy needs to drop a ball in a window or otherwise accept the risk and feel he can make a big throw. To look down field and gamble to make a play. 50-50? Ok. Maybe even 40-60? Ok. But one gives you a chance and the other "what on the world happened?, this never had a decent chance."

 

I do think that was not something mostly on the Nix program. And I respect that; but, I think that was a bit of the difference between the seasons Nix had and the season Penix had.

 

Penix got into those situations and was remarkably successful most of the way. Could Bo have done the same? Absolutely; but, I don't exactly feel he felt free to trust **everything** involved in making such throws and generally didn't decided to roll the dice. There always in such situations a **safer** percentage options that, if it fails, people tend to understand "It's the best odds that was left so it makes sense".

 

Which is ok unless the moment ultimately requires a bit of a play.

 

Akili had it, Joey had it, I think DT and really even Masoli had it, I'm not sure MM really was in that spot to much; but, Justin had it. Justin walked in as a true freshman and felt all day he had the arm to put the ball into windows and risk making a play because he had confidence he could make the throw.

 

Was that Bo? Looking back years from now I certainly feel I may be mistaken. In Gabriel, a different player, where embracing those throws and willing to make them is the calculus different than what was programmed into Nix? I think maybe because the "cost to benefit" ratio is just different.

 

Is a huge NFL throw will be more of a benefit DG than it ever would have been for BN? I will suggest accepting the gamble, maybe be different than Nix.

 

 

Where here did it get Penix? Obviously well; but, where did it get Nix? Not to bad either.

 

Quite possibly this doesn't make a lot of sense. Go Ducks.

 

 

Edited May 1 by AnotherOD

[Solar]

On 4/30/2024 at 5:55 PM, AnotherOD said:

I got myself in a bit of trouble in a thread a while back and I certainly will own it, I didn't express my thoughts too well.

 

Bo Nix was great at Oregon and when I dabbled in a bit of perhaps criticism, it didn't go well. I've had time to reformulate the thought, so here it goes.

 

When Nix transferred to Oregon, he was borderland out of the draft. He came to Oregon to right the ship. Was he going all of a sudden to make a bunch of NFL throws, dropping balls into windows and throwing guys open. I think that is fair to say unlikely.

 

Ok, but that isn't exactly the only consideration. It's ok I think to suggest Bo arrived at Oregon with both team and personal goals.

 

I've heard the jokes about "Bo Pix"; but, even at Auburn he wasn't a guy who put the ball up in a lot of danger back then, and his interception numbers prior to Oregon weren't that bad.

 

Nix came to Oregon to rehabilitate himself and do what he does well with a fresh start. His path to the NFL was really turning some heads, putting up a huge QBR, a high completion percentage, and not turning the ball over.

 

Minus Washington it was fabulous.

 

Here is where I got in trouble. I think Bo was just programmed to mostly avoid risks. Which worked most of the time; but, to make that final step, occasionally a guy needs to drop a ball in a window or otherwise accept the risk and feel he can make a big throw. To look down field and gamble to make a play.

 

I do think that was not something mostly on the Nix program. And I respect that; but, I think that was a bit of the difference between the seasons Nix had and the season Penix had.

 

Penix got into those situations and was remarkably successful most of the way. Could Bo have done the same? Absolutely; but, I don't exactly feel he felt free to trust **everything** involved in making such throws and generally didn't decided to roll the dice. There always in such situations a **safer** percentage options that, if it fails, people tend to understand "It's the best odds that was left so it makes sense".

 

Which is ok unless the moment ultimately requires a bit of a play.

 

Akili had it, Joey had it, I think DT and really even Masoli had it, I'm not sure MM really was in that spot to much; but, Justin had it. Justin walked in as a true freshman and felt all day he had the arm to put the ball into windows and risk making a play because he had confidence he could make the throw.

 

Was that Bo? Looking back years from now I certainly feel I may be mistaken. In Gabriel, a different player, where embracing those throws and willing to make them is the calculus different than what was programmed into Nix? I think maybe because the "cost to benefit" ratio is just different.

 

Is a huge NFL throw will be more of a benefit DG than it ever would have been for BN? I will suggest accepting the gamble? Maybe. Whatever the odds I suggest it is much more likely to come at the arms of Gabriel.

 

Where here did it get Penix? Obviously well; but, where did it get Nix? Not to bad either.

 

Quite possibly this doesn't make a lot of sense. Go Ducks.

 

 

I agree with much if what you just said. Absolutely it makes sense.

 

I do think we saw a lot of progress in the last 2 years with Bo. Bad Bo only showed up a few times all season (TT and CCG) in 2023. And when confident this last year he was able to throw into tight windows with consistent success.

 

I think Bo would really benefit from the QB coach Justin had who was able to wash off all that Cristobal "everything is grind" mentality and get him to just love playing football fast. 

[Haywarduck]

I am not a fan of comparing and I really don't think Bo and Dillon are a good comparison. 

 

I will say I am excited to see what Stein brings out of Dillon and the others. This is the magic of the qb position, what is the OC going to do with what he has. 

 

I do think most of us, myself included, think too much of our own players. I mean how did Franklin drop to the 4th round based on where our faithful would have drafted him?

 

It does come down to the team of players, and the dynamics created by team leadership. This is one thing which will develop a new with the new crew coming in, and chemistry created.

 

I also think year three of Lanning will be a better year. The systems and processes he wants in place should almost be on autopilot. With that the energy and way players perform should be closer to what we can expect going forward.

 

So the ceiling under Lanning, Dillon, the assistants and many aspects will be better understood after this season. I am excited to see the growth and the bountiful changes occurring as the season progresses. The move to the BIG might be the most impactful, stay tuned.

[Charles Fischer]

On 5/1/2024 at 6:56 AM, Haywarduck said:

I mean how did Franklin drop to the 4th round based on where our faithful would have drafted him?

The facts are that he dropped way-too-many passes thrown to him. (10%!) And the rumor is that he bombed the interviews with NFL team executives.

 

[Drake]

I think Bo was very astute at reading defenses, and changed calls at the line of scrimmage often with great success. You can’t undersell that aspect of the game. 

 

I am not familiar with Dillon’s body of work. He has been a winner wherever he goes, and I expect that he will manage games quite well for our Ducks

 

I don’t know enough to talk about ceilings, or floors, for players. I do know that Bo resurrected a career that was in turmoil at Oregon. He battled back and ended up the #12 pick in the draft. 
 

Overcoming adversity is what the QB position is all about. You are a hero, or a scapegoat.
 

I hope that he thrives at his new job. 

[OregonDucks]

 

[woundedknees]

On 5/1/2024 at 9:26 AM, Charles Fischer said:

The facts are that he dropped way-too-many passes thrown to him. (10%!) And the rumor is that he bombed the interviews with NFL team executives.

 

Sadly there are a surprising number of college students, and graduates, many of them athletes, who either can not, or will not, speak the English language clearly enough, and/or express their thoughts, for a basic job interview. 

It may not be a popular opinion, but it is the truth, regardless of athletic prowess.

[Jon Joseph]

A $cam sighting. The first guy on the NIL train, courtesy of Pops, who recently threw Brock Purdy under the bus. 

 

Fun to ponder, thanks.

 

Tempus dicet: 'The season will say.' 

[Jon Joseph]

Dillon Gabriel - Oklahoma Sooners Quarterback - ESPN

WWW.ESPN.COM

---

View the profile of Oklahoma Sooners Quarterback Dillon Gabriel on ESPN. Get the latest news, live stats and game highlights.

 

Stay healthy (knock wood) and Dillion will break Bo's record for the number of starts by a college QB. To date, Dillon has thrown 125 TD passes and thrown for over 10,000 yards. 

 

Gabriel, not Texas's Quinn Ewers, or K State's, now at Ohio State, Will Howard, was the 2023 1st team All-B12 QB. Has a QB who was P4 all conference ever transferred to another program? I doubt it. 

 

At Oklahoma Dillon played under OC Jeff Lebby, now the HC at Mississippi State. Like Will Stein, Lebby runs an RPO-heavy O. One of the takeaways from the spring game was how well James and Harris ran the ball. The WRs are legit. The TE, with a few drops in the game but no biggie, is in great hands with Ferguson and deep with Sadiq and Herbert. 

 

I cannot wait to watch DG play behind one of the better OLs in CFB and I think he has a great chance to equal or exceed Bo's 2023 numbers. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/1/2024 at 9:56 AM, Haywarduck said:

I am not a fan of comparing and I really don't think Bo and Dillon are a good comparison. 

 

I will say I am excited to see what Stein brings out of Dillon and the others. This is the magic of the qb position, what is the OC going to do with what he has. 

 

I do think most of us, myself included, think too much of our own players. I mean how did Franklin drop to the 4th round based on where our faithful would have drafted him?

 

It does come down to the team of players, and the dynamics created by team leadership. This is one thing which will develop a new with the new crew coming in, and chemistry created.

 

I also think year three of Lanning will be a better year. The systems and processes he wants in place should almost be on autopilot. With that the energy and way players perform should be closer to what we can expect going forward.

 

So the ceiling under Lanning, Dillon, the assistants and many aspects will be better understood after this season. I am excited to see the growth and the bountiful changes occurring as the season progresses. The move to the BIG might be the most impactful, stay tuned.

Great comment. The system DG played in at Oklahoma and the system run by Will Stein are comparable. If allowed to do so, and with a better group of backup QBs I hope he is allowed to do so, DG is as much of a run threat as Bo. Not as big but with more 'wiggle.'

 

In 2023, along with completing 69.3% of his passes for 360 yards + 30 TDs with only 6 picks, DG rushed 93 times for 393 yards (4.0 average) and a team-high 12 TDS, 2nd most nationally for QBs. 

[Notalot]

It is easier to run the QB when the stable holds two or three more aces. Last year our Ducks lived on the edge with Bo.

 

Speaking of Bo, few of the pundits and analysts recognize Bo’s size, strength, and toughness. Those are the traits that cause me to believe Bo will have some good years in the NFL and put up better numbers than most of those rated. He has a very strong core to pass from.

[Mike West]

On 4/30/2024 at 5:55 PM, AnotherOD said:

I got myself in a bit of trouble in a thread a while back and I certainly will own it, I didn't express my thoughts too well.

I believe a lot of people misperceived how well Nix would do.  

 

My initial thoughts were as follows:

 

Nix had a horrible OL at Auburn.  He was waltzing into a very good situation at Oregon.

 

Nix had average WRs at Auburn.  Again, he walked into a much better Skill set at Oregon. 

 

Nix forced things at AU, because he felt the pressure to make plays.  I watched a lot of tape of him against the Elite teams, because I felt that would be the best measure of his skills.  He was constantly under pressure, and his WRs did him no justice.  He ran for his life and frankly, pressed to make things happen.

 

His debut with Oregon in Atlanta was much the same.  But he didn't have the WR set he had last year in that game.  Georgia sat on the WRs, and Nix forced several throws.  Ironically, he had enough time to throw against Georgia, but he felt the pressure to succeed nonetheless.

 

Last year, against the Fuskies, he played well both games.  He was under much more duress and had to buy time or scramble much more than against Georgia, and he played far better in both those games than against the Bulldogs. He just didn't execute on fourth down the first game, and he was inconsistent the second game.  

 

Overall, it would have taken thorough study to have been comfortable with Nix when he transferred to Oregon. So many SEC and Auburn fans didn't vet him very well in my opinion.  That should be clear by how Auburn did after Nix left.

 

In closing, I had the same kind of issues with Heisman winner Jayden Daniels.  He played far better with better talent surrounding him.  I felt he was a lost cause transferring from ASU, but I was far off base.  He adjusted well to his speedy WRs and he made far better decisions at LSU. 

 

I believe both will play well in the NFL if they get the kind of talent they had in college. 

[Solar]

JD only succeeded at LSU by getting away from the tough PAC12 defenses to go up against the pansie SEC defenses.

 

That's the counter argument for those that say Nix thrived at Oregon because PAC12 defenses suck.

 

The real question for us is the B1G defenses. Are they really that superior or are their offenses inferior, or is the weather just too crappy in the back half of the season for offenses to produce? The truth is probably in the middle of all 3.

[JabbaNoBargain]

On 5/6/2024 at 3:39 PM, Solar said:

JD only succeeded at LSU by getting away from the tough PAC12 defenses to go up against the pansie SEC defenses.

 

That's the counter argument for those that say Nix thrived at Oregon because PAC12 defenses suck.

 

The real question for us is the B1G defenses. Are they really that superior or are their offenses inferior, or is the weather just too crappy in the back half of the season for offenses to produce? The truth is probably in the middle of all 3.

Wait, do we have good weather in Oregon the second half of the season? Asking for a friend.

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/6/2024 at 4:36 PM, Mike West said:

I believe a lot of people misperceived how well Nix would do.  

 

My initial thoughts were as follows:

 

Nix had a horrible OL at Auburn.  He was waltzing into a very good situation at Oregon.

 

Nix had average WRs at Auburn.  Again, he walked into a much better Skill set at Oregon. 

 

Nix forced things at AU, because he felt the pressure to make plays.  I watched a lot of tape of him against the Elite teams, because I felt that would be the best measure of his skills.  He was constantly under pressure, and his WRs did him no justice.  He ran for his life and frankly, pressed to make things happen.

 

His debut with Oregon in Atlanta was much the same.  But he didn't have the WR set he had last year in that game.  Georgia sat on the WRs, and Nix forced several throws.  Ironically, he had enough time to throw against Georgia, but he felt the pressure to succeed nonetheless.

 

Last year, against the Fuskies, he played well both games.  He was under much more duress and had to buy time or scramble much more than against Georgia, and he played far better in both those games than against the Bulldogs. He just didn't execute on fourth down the first game, and he was inconsistent the second game.  

 

Overall, it would have taken thorough study to have been comfortable with Nix when he transferred to Oregon. So many SEC and Auburn fans didn't vet him very well in my opinion.  That should be clear by how Auburn did after Nix left.

 

In closing, I had the same kind of issues with Heisman winner Jayden Daniels.  He played far better with better talent surrounding him.  I felt he was a lost cause transferring from ASU, but I was far off base.  He adjusted well to his speedy WRs and he made far better decisions at LSU. 

 

I believe both will play well in the NFL if they get the kind of talent they had in college. 

Bo benefited by having Dilly as his OC in year 1 at Auburn and Oregon and with Will Stein in his 2nd year in Eugene. 

 

Dilly to Stein evidences Dan Lanning's 'CEO" coaching hire acumen and success. 

[Lono]

On 5/6/2024 at 4:27 PM, JabbaNoBargain said:

Wait, do we have good weather in Oregon the second half of the season? Asking for a friend.

Yes we do. It never rains at Autzen Stadium

[Solar]

On 5/6/2024 at 4:27 PM, JabbaNoBargain said:

Wait, do we have good weather in Oregon the second half of the season? Asking for a friend.

Ok, playing football in the rain when it is 36 degrees is about the most uncomfortable thing I've ever experienced, perhaps only beaten by some 10 degrees and blowing trips from my car to the office in work clothes.

 

You still have a point. I continue to think that the diversity of environments in the PAC 12 made road games harder than other conferences. Altitude and humidity are underrated factors. It isn't just the temp.

 

I think playing in November in AZ or Wisconsin is s probably a home field advantage wash for PNW schools. That dry AZ air in November just puts the players to sleep.

[Jon Joseph]

Solar, great take.

 

From a guy who grew up in Boston, I know this to be a certainty: It is easier to shovel rain than snow. November 16th in Madison, Wisconsin, Oregon's eighth game in a row without a break, could be played in bitterly cold and snowy weather on the shores of Lake Mendota.

 

Of course, the same weather issues could be found late in the season at Wazzu, CU, and Utah.

 

Regardless, it's going to be a B1G blast. 

[HDuck]

The B1G has cold, sleet, and wind in November.   The wind in some of these B1G stadiums cannot be over rated.  It is why B1G teams game statistics are often dominated by running rather than passing.  For most of its venues regardless of month it has vociferous crowds.  This will not be like road games at Palo Alto or Tucson, will be more like Utah at multiple road sites.

 

I was surprised Gabriel doesn't show more interceptions the last two seasons given his height.