Recruiting 5-Stars: How to Achieve the Final Recruiting Step?

[Charles Fischer]

I am NOT complaining about recruiting, but we all know that the final step for Lanning is acquiring the Rivals 5-Star players.  Last year, we had the best 4/5-Star class ever at Oregon, but they were all 4-Stars. For the signing this December, we have nine verbals of which seven are 4-Star along with two 3-Star projects.  That is superb, but not Georgia level yet...

 

I recognize that Dano kills-it in the portal, and we have equivalent to 5-Stars from the portal with a few such as Donte Moore when he was a HS senior.

 

But for high school recruiting...it is brutal against the top programs when Oregon is so far away from the homes of most 5-Star recruits.  What is the final step to get them pulled from Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama, etc.?

 

The recruits can feel what Lanning is creating here, and love the vibe...but there is a final reluctance from the very best to make the commitment to Eugene.  What is that step?

 

I believe it is on-the-field results.

 

If our corners had not got injured, and we beat Washington the second game and proceed into the Playoff last year--that could have been the "Oregon's arrived" indicator to recruits.  I believe that Texas is getting a huge bounce from precisely that.  For years they underperformed as USC has, yet this last year--Sark showed everyone that this is a different Longhorn team, and recruits have noticed.

 

So...this could be the year that sets up recruiting for the next five years?

 

 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

On 6/19/2024 at 2:55 PM, Charles Fischer said:

If our corners had not got injured, and we beat Washington the second game and proceed into the Playoff last year--that could have been the "Oregon's arrived" indicator to recruits.

Unfortunately one of the backups for the injured corners was a five star that hasn’t played like one yet.

 

Here’s hoping Donte Manning pulls an N’fally Donte and has a five star senior season. 

[Charles Fischer]

On 6/19/2024 at 3:13 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

Unfortunately one of the backups for the injured corners was a five star that hasn’t played like one yet.

 

Here’s hoping Donte Manning pulls an N'Faly Donte and has a five star senior season. 

Well, perhaps he was a 247 Sports 5-Star, but he was a Rivals 4-Star.  But I agree with you; he has not lived up to the hype, or his celebrating after some plays.

 

He wears No. 8...

 

[JabbaNoBargain]

The high school evaluation game is dubious. Seen too many knuckleheads get 5 stars, especially the last 5 years or so.
 

I appreciate the sentiment, but we’ve really only lacked in two areas in recent history IMO. The trenches on D, and WR. Getting some of the best and more depth in those two areas, no matter how many stars, is what will push us to the next level.

[The Kamikaze Kid]

From some of the quotes I’ve seen, I’d say Lanning sees recruiting success measured by first and second round draft numbers.As we were amazed by I think seven last year, Lanning was saying he wanted that number over ten!

 

We have never had a recruiter able to talk numbers like that from prior experience doing it. When the five stars start feeling comfortable that he can deliver that at Oregon, the flood gates will open.

[Haywarduck]

Agree with Charles and Kamikaze, it is going to take input and output. Kids want to win, but they also want to know they will be drafted. You have to pick the right kids, and develop them. 

 

Recruits that get drafted, and transfers who go high in the draft is critical. If we can turn Burch into a 1st rounder it would go a long way to helping our transfer story extend to the defense. 

 

The derecruitment process is important for developing elite high school talent. I would say equally important is the renew process with transfers. Oregon needs to become a place where players take that final step within their career. Gonzo and Nix have laid a solid base to that story. I would like to see Dillon, Burch, Holden and Jacobs have breakout seasons.

 

I would also like to see Connerly and Florence show Lanning knows how to pick and develop talent in house. I would also love to see a couple recruits surprise at wide receiver, but hopefully that will happen as time goes on.

 

Bring kids on, develop them, give them opportunities to shine, and win! Agree this could, should be a season to remember. It certainly would be nice if the rest of the country learns to never forget Oregon football.

[dksez]

This is gonna sound weird, but the real limiter might be our airport and the number of direct flights to anywhere beyond Denver and Phoenix.

 

Uncle Phil asked Coach Belotti what he needed to succeed, and he built an indoor practice facility. If he asks the same question today, we might see a third runway and adjoining hotels with a conference center.

 

Grow the airport, grow the market. The answer is not always on the playing field.

[Dr Hilarius]

On 6/20/2024 at 7:09 AM, dksez said:

 

This is gonna sound weird, but the real limiter might be our airport and the number of direct flights to anywhere beyond Denver and Phoenix

 

Delta added several direct flights from Eugene to Ohio for the Ohio State game.

 

https://forum.fishduck.com/topic/14063-delta-adding-flights-to-help-buckeye-fans-come-to-autzen/

[Duxster]

On 6/20/2024 at 9:09 AM, dksez said:

Grow the airport, grow the market. 

I spent 25+ years leading major transportation projects and can tell you the only way to grow the airport is to significantly increase (double?) the population in Eugene-Springfield and the surrounding area. Major transportation infrastructure is sized to meet ongoing demand. It is never sized to serve events like college football games that only happen 7-8 times a year. Delta's response to the Ohio State game is what we can expect. 

[Jon Joseph]

CBS Sports ranks 3 Oregon players in the NFL's Top 100. The same number of top 100 from Ohio State.

 

Herbert 20, Armstead 80, and Buckner 81.

 

Ducks drafted in 2024 - 8 players, tied with Georgia and Penn State

 

1st round - Nix

 

2nd round - J-P-J

 

4th round - Franklin, Jackson, Dorlus, Williams, Irving

 

6th round - Hill

 

Michigan had 13 players drafted; Texas 11; and Alabama, FSU, and UW 10. 

 

In the 2023 season, per USA Today, Bama had the most active players in the NFL with 57; Ohio State 47; Georgia 46; LSU 43; and Michigan 38. This speaks well for the B1G's B1G 2. 

 

 

[David Marsh]

On 6/19/2024 at 6:31 PM, JabbaNoBargain said:

The high school evaluation game is dubious. Seen too many knuckleheads get 5 stars, especially the last 5 years or so.
 

I appreciate the sentiment, but we’ve really only lacked in two areas in recent history IMO. The trenches on D, and WR. Getting some of the best and more depth in those two areas, no matter how many stars, is what will push us to the next level.

5 star status is about their physical ability not their mental. 

 

Justin Flowe was a 5 star and he is a physical beast. 

 

But he just doesn't seem to have the mind for the game and was constantly out played and out of position. 

[Nevada Dawg]

On 6/20/2024 at 5:40 PM, David Marsh said:

5 star status is about their physical ability not their mental. 

 

Justin Flowe was a 5 star and he is a physical beast. 

 

But he just doesn't seem to have the mind for the game and was constantly out played and out of position. 

I think I mentioned this previously, but my information back then was that Georgia thought Justin had all the tools but didn't seem to like playing football very much, or at least to the intensity that would be required by Kirby Smart. My own impression of Justin, and I watched him carefully, was congruent with that assessment.

 

I really hate to sound like I am dumping on the kid.  It is certainly no crime not to have the heart for big-time football and I wish the young man all the best in whatever life path he chooses to pursue as an advocation.

[Log Haulin]

Meh, the world is small and shrinking with every tick and tock. The only thing in the way of Oregon recruiting like tOSU, Bama or UGA is time and decision.

 

Oregon has made a decision  to be the "best of the best" years ago. They grabbed another gear a few years ago and as the clock ticks year to year, they are now one of the leading programs with one of the most talented rosters.

 

Oregon has no excuses for failure at this point, imo. They definitely don't seem to be a program looking for excuses either.

 

In today's world, geographic location is one of the weakest excuses. I hear people say "I want my parents to be able to watch me play" is a real issue for top recruits. 

 

We live in a world of NIL and kickbacks. There isn't a top recruit in the country that can't get their folks to the game.

 

"Get me to the league" is the base. It starts there. So do that and Ducks will be top 5 every year. The rest is just excuses.

[fred flintstone]

Just win a NC. 

[dksez]

I just had a conversation with a sprinter who is here to win a spot on the Olympic team. I asked him whether Eugene deserves its reputation as Track Town USA. He's been here many times in his career and he loves Eugene, but he told me that lots of athletes hate on us "because it's hard to get here." I imagine the buzz is similar among blue chip football recruits.

[JabbaNoBargain]

On 6/20/2024 at 5:40 PM, David Marsh said:

5 star status is about their physical ability not their mental. 

 

Justin Flowe was a 5 star and he is a physical beast. 

 

But he just doesn't seem to have the mind for the game and was constantly out played and out of position. 

By knucklehead I was meaning “busts”, more than intelligence. Bad word choice.

That being said, I always thought stars were a reflection of the pecking order of the current class? 5 star = top 30, etc.

 

BTW the fact this is a relative and not absolute ranking also diminishes the value of being 5 star imo. Is getting a low end 5 star in a below average class really a “5 star”?

 

If the system is based purely on the physical specs of a 16-17 year old, then being a 5 star versus a 4 is greatly overrated imo. Motor, drive, intelligence…somewhat important

 

So I’ll go full circle to the original question, and like my original answer. With the portal, we don’t really need more 5 stars out of HS. I get excited when it happens, absolutely. But a roster with more 4 star dudes out of HS, up front on D and at WR will get us there.

 

 

Edited June 21 by JabbaNoBargain

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/21/2024 at 9:43 AM, fred flintstone said:

Just win a NC. 

Fred, since the 1st BCS title was won in 1999, by Tennessee, Yabba Dabo Do, won 2 titles at Clemson. Clemson is one of 14 teams that won 26 BCS and/or Playoff championships from 1999 to 2023. 

 

1 Natty - Auburn (SIGH), Miami, Michigan, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, USC

 

2 Titles - Clemson, Florida, FSU, Georgia, Ohio State (SIGH.)

 

3 Titles - LSU

 

6 Titles - Alabama, which confirms The Tide's extraordinary run under Nick Saban. 

 

Summary - It is not easy to win a championship. BCS, win one game. 4-Team Playoff, win two games. 12-Team Playoff, a team will need to win 3 or 4 postseason games.

 

This season and the next, the Bowl Playoff sites favor teams from Dixie. Pasadena and Glendale are the only Western Bowl sites. The Rose and Fiesta Bowls are 2nd round games along with the Peach and Sugar Bowls. The semifinal games will be played in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas and the Orange Bowl in New Orleans. The semifinal games will be played in Dallas and Miami.

 

The 2024-25 champion game will be contested at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The 2025-26 champion game will be played at Hard Rock Stadium close to Miami. 

 

If Oregon was the fifth seed this season, the Ducks would play a home game, then most likely play in Atlanta versus the ACC champ, followed by a game in Miami or Dallas. If all went well for Puddles, it would be a flight back to Atlanta for the championship game. Hopefully, we will see more equitable game sites come 2026-27. 

 

10 of the 14 championship-winning schools are located in Dixie, 11 if you add Oklahoma. Do 'these guys' need game location help? 

Edited June 21 by Jon Joseph

[David Marsh]

On 6/21/2024 at 10:20 AM, JabbaNoBargain said:

BTW the fact this is a relative and not absolute ranking also diminishes the value of being 5 star imo. Is getting a low end 5 star in a below average class really a “5 star”?

Five Star status is based on their rating score. 

 

On 247 sports they gave Dallas Wilson an Oregon commit a score of 94. They makes him a four star. 247 and On3 both have composite rankings that average out. By the composite he's a five star.

 

After players are all given a rating then they're given a ranking by well... Ranking their ratings. 

 

There are thresholds as to what makes a five star player. 

 

Theoretically you could have a class without any five star recruits. 

 

A high four star can be just as good as a five star it's just where they place a cutoff. 

 

There are also position groups that are notoriously hard to judge and put proper rankings to. Quarterback and linebacker being two of the hardest positions to truly rank because there is such a mental and leadership component to them. 

 

It doesn't matter how far and accurate a quarterback can throw the ball if they can't get the play call, line their guys up, and adjust and read opposing defenses. 

 

I love the idea of landing a bunch of five stars but I'm also fine with a class that is composed almost exclusively if four stars. 

[Charles Fischer]

On 6/21/2024 at 2:28 PM, David Marsh said:

I love the idea of landing a bunch of five stars but I'm also fine with a class that is composed almost exclusively if four stars. 

I get that, and it is good logic...but some 5-Stars are so special--they can really impact the team like few others.  For example, would I prefer Jayden Limar at RB, the Rivals 4-Star from the state of Washington, or the Rivals 5-Star running back below who is also from Washington?

 

Jonathan Stewart

 

[kirklandduck]

If OBD make the CFP and have a good showing (i.e. win 2-3 games) then I don't doubt recruiting 5* guys will become visibly easier.

[JabbaNoBargain]

On 6/21/2024 at 2:28 PM, David Marsh said:

Five Star status is based on their rating score. 

 

On 247 sports they gave Dallas Wilson an Oregon commit a score of 94. They makes him a four star. 247 and On3 both have composite rankings that average out. By the composite he's a five star.

 

After players are all given a rating then they're given a ranking by well... Ranking their ratings. 

 

There are thresholds as to what makes a five star player. 

 

Theoretically you could have a class without any five star recruits. 

 

A high four star can be just as good as a five star it's just where they place a cutoff. 

 

There are also position groups that are notoriously hard to judge and put proper rankings to. Quarterback and linebacker being two of the hardest positions to truly rank because there is such a mental and leadership component to them. 

 

It doesn't matter how far and accurate a quarterback can throw the ball if they can't get the play call, line their guys up, and adjust and read opposing defenses. 

 

I love the idea of landing a bunch of five stars but I'm also fine with a class that is composed almost exclusively if four stars. 

Thanks for the info. Thats a solid explanation.
 

So is it just coincidence that there are always 25-30 5 stars? Never 40, or just 10?

 

 

[David Marsh]

On 6/21/2024 at 4:06 PM, JabbaNoBargain said:

Thanks for the info. Thats a solid explanation.
 

So is it just coincidence that there are always 25-30 5 stars? Never 40, or just 10?

 

 

I imagine that the 25-30 fits their desired statistical average. 

 

Out of the thousands of high school football players these eval sites only scout a fraction of them all. 

 

A lot of their focus does boil down to players to participate in the extracurricular football... That is 7-on-7 tournaments, camps and whatnot. 

 

I'd imagine in any given year there are probably only about that 20-30 players who have the freak of nature physical abilities to be considered a 5 star. 

 

I'm sure there are more who would be considered 5 stars but there just aren't the eyeballs to see them all. 

 

Justin Herbert was a 3 star. He didn't participate in many of those as for mentioned extracurricular football activities. He also played baseball and was injured for part of his high school football career. As a result he was given a low star rating. 

 

But as an incoming freshman to Oregon Herbert was big. He was 6'6" and had a cannon of an arm and all the mental abilities of a top tier football player. He won offensive rookie of the year in the NFL! 

 

But he didn't do enough camps and stuff and never had the eyeball on him. If he did I'm sure he would have been a high four star or five star. 

 

There are absolutely limitations as to what these scouts can ever see. 

 

It's also important to note that these scouting services aren't looking for players who might be good at the college level but those who could make it in the pros. 

 

This video does a good job explaining some of the pitfalls of recruiting. 

 

 

It's a big long but worth it.