Oregon's 2024 Offense Statistics Update - Concerning or Building?

[cartm25]

2024 Offense Stats update! (Only includes regular season and Conference championship games; no Bowl games or CFP stats)

 

Positives:

- OL has improved drastically through 7 games.

- Scored enough to beat tOSU . . . What a glorious game!!

- Passing game/stats are green; lining up with some of the best years in Ducks' history.

 

Negatives:

- Offensive PPG and scoring efficiency metrics are down . . . like into Mari Cristbal territory.

- Rushing YPG and rush yards per attempt are the lowest in the history shown below.

 

But, Oregon is 7-0 and #1 in the country! "That's why we play the game" - GO DUCKS!!

 

 

 

[Charles Fischer]

[The Kamikaze Kid]

This year’s stats I think are somewhat deceptive. I think Lanning’s plan has been to get up by three scores (21 points), create separation, then play some vanilla ball till the end.

Since BSU all but tOSU have been blow outs by halftime. I think the second half vanilla ball has been to both avoid needless wear and tear on the players and to minimize useful tape on the team.

We are 2-0 against top twenty playoff level teams. I’m not that concerned..

[QuackyQuack]

On 10/21/2024 at 3:15 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

This year’s stats I think are somewhat deceptive. I think Lanning’s plan has been to get up by three scores (21 points), create separation, then play some vanilla ball till the end.

Since BSU all but tOSU have been blow outs by halftime. I think the second half vanilla ball has been to both avoid needless wear and tear on the players and to minimize useful tape on the team.

We are 2-0 against top twenty playoff level teams. I’m not that concerned..

Agree with this. To add a couple things.

 

Style points don't matter anymore. Protect your players from injury and protect your playbook. Its a long season.

 

Games are shorter now than they were before with the new rule of the game clock running on first downs. That can eat a good chunk of the clock when you are getting first down after first down.

[30Duck]

On 10/21/2024 at 3:15 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

We are 2-0 against top 20 playoff level teams. I'm not that concerned..

 Yeah, there's no Cristobal Prevent Offense going on here, this is calculated offense for the long season, and who's playing. Jordan James isn't going to break out on a 60 yard TD, but he'll pick up 60 in a time consuming drive. 

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/21/2024 at 3:44 PM, 30Duck said:

Cristobal Prevent Offense

I love that label you coined.  So descriptive and perfect!

 

 

[Pocketchange]

I’m such a negative Nelly. We have a solid offense, it’s good, however the metrics and the eye test are not lying to us. Our defense and passing attack are winning the games. We can especially see the underperformance on 4th downs, 2 point conversions, and red zone conversions. This offense certainly doesn’t match Coach Lanning’s personality.

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/21/2024 at 6:38 PM, Pocketchange said:

I’m such a negative Nelly. We have a solid offense, it’s good, however the metrics and the eye test are not lying to us. Our defense and passing attack are winning the games. We can especially see the underperformance on 4th downs, 2 point conversions, and red zone conversions. This offense certainly doesn’t match Coach Lanning’s personality.

 

Please read...

 

Oregon’s Secret That Nobody Talks About... | FishDuck

FISHDUCK.COM

---

There has been so much written about Oregon football in the last couple of days, yet I sense there is a major element to the remainder of the season that…

 

[Pocketchange]

I agree with the article and fail to see where my comment and your article diverges. We have a solid offense that underperforms in certain situations. 

[Charles Fischer]

The difference is, I gave reasons why, and how it all makes sense within Dan Lanning’s plan.

 

So not scoring as much is by design, and a good thing, and not something for us to be concerned about yet.

 

If I sensed we genuinely had a problem, I would say so. But after tracking our offenses for a dozen years, I can see a very distinct pattern that is different from prior years, and different from last year with the same offensive coordinator.

 

Or we can disagree. No sweat.

 

[David Marsh]

Rush yards per game are low in part due to the two very bad games to start the year where normally we see inflated stats. 

 

Last year the Ducks ran for like 300 yards against Portland State and that's some stat inflation right there. Also the 80 points they dropped on PSU. 

 

However, with that said it feels like our offense isn't quite firing at it's full potential yet. I still feel like we need to see more games with more than 40 points. 

 

The reality is we'd be there is we didn't keep leaving so many points on the field.

 

Against Purdue that late first half interception prevented Oregon from scoring more than 40. 

 

The two interceptions against MSU as well and the one interception against UCLA. 

 

I know I'm kinda pointing the finger the most at Gabriel here more than anything... But I feel our offense needs a bit more power and efficiency. 

[KCDuck1]

Mr. Fishduck stated, "For proof, they noted how only Dillon Gabriel (87.6) had a higher PFF score in this game than defensive tackle Derrick Harmon. (86.0) They raved at how Harmon changed so many plays, and how well Oregon plugged the gaps to contain Ohio State. They were especially impressed with how Buckeye running back Quinshon Judkins only had a 2.3 yard-per-carry against the Ducks with no broken tackles. This is noteworthy since they stated that he was the best running back in the nation the last two years at breaking tackles…but not at Autzen.

Their quotes confirmed what many of us felt as we watched the game. PFF thought that Oregon’s front seven on defense really stepped up, and how the Ducks were, as they stated, “the more physical team.”"

 

The OBD trench warriors should surpass their showing against tOSU while playing the Illini because the Illini are a running team with a HC who has an O-Line coaching background. Their 6-1 record has built a lot of confidence into this years' program, and they have had several good [NFL draft] D-Linemen the past few years. OBDs can't approach any team even moderately. On offense, grind 'em into the turf and secure blocks in the 2d level! On defense, sacks, TFLs, and avoid hand/arm tackles. Coach Stein/DG: how about several of those brrrrr bombs (or whatever term is being used for them)! If we win, this could be a memorable game. The last two games against the Illini were too close, and this team may be a good Prep for Michigan's offense.

 

VR, KCDuck1

Win, Ducks, Win!

[Drake]

DG has had to adapt his game to a new offensive philosophy and personnel.
 

Fans expectations of setting scoring records should have went out the window after the first game. Too many problems needed to be ironed out, and the play book was simplified. Some fans at Autzen actually booed our play selection at one point. 

 

DG has never thrown shade at anyone for our offensive problems. Like a true leader he has personally taken responsibility for the problems. 
 

To start the season, most people thought at best we might be undefeated right now…You can point fingers at whomever you want for lack of offensive scoring, but they are 7 - 0, and ranked #1. 

[Charles Fischer]

Drake..,that is an interesting  observation about human nature; we’re never happy.

 

We can be 7-0, defeated a No. 2 team, and STILL not be happy.  I remember it during the Chip Kelly days as well, that people were nitpicking about different items. They felt could be better in 2010 when we were on a national championship game appearance path.
 

”We’re not taking any time off the clock!”

 

I am not saying this to project superiority, because I am just as guilty of it at times as everybody. This is just the way it is… but it is fascinating!

 

[David Marsh]

I'm absolutely thrilled we're No. 1 in the country right now and that we pitched our first shutout since 2012. I'm still living off the massive win over Ohio State. 

 

Though as a fan who pays far too much attention to the progrum I find myself being concerned about things that seem minor but might be our shortfalls. 

 

And right now I want to see some more rushing yards.

 

Now thinking about it this year we really don't seem to have a true one-two punch. James is our featured back this year but he isn't quite getting featured back snaps in terms of numbers.

 

Last year we had Bucky and James and those two were brutal. We don't have that this year. 

[cartm25]

On 10/21/2024 at 8:48 PM, David Marsh said:

Rush yards per game are low in part due to the two very bad games to start the year where normally we see inflated stats. 

 

Last year the Ducks ran for like 300 yards against Portland State and that's some stat inflation right there. Also the 80 points they dropped on PSU. 

 

However, with that said it feels like our offense isn't quite firing at it's full potential yet. I still feel like we need to see more games with more than 40 points. 

 

The reality is we'd be there is we didn't keep leaving so many points on the field.

 

Against Purdue that late first half interception prevented Oregon from scoring more than 40. 

 

The two interceptions against MSU as well and the one interception against UCLA. 

 

I know I'm kinda pointing the finger the most at Gabriel here more than anything... But I feel our offense needs a bit more power and efficiency. 

Loved your take here.

 

Wanted to add the following comment for information’s sake:

 

When I exclude the non-conference games from the data, the rushing YPG is still last place for the years shown, and the rushing yards per attempt is second worst.

 

I find all the little data points (positive and negative) very interesting.

 

I can see rushing YPG being down of they’re featuring DG, but the rushing YPA would indicate lagging efficiency in the run game.

[Grandpa Duck]

Thanks for posting the statistic comparison over the years, cartm25.  As David Marsh points out, playing a team like PSU can greatly skew the stats for a whole year.  Scoring 80 against them raised the average of the other 11 games by nearly 4 points.

 

Another consideration is that comparing stats for just one side of the ball, offense, from year to year assumes that opponent defenses are all the same throughout the years.  We know that is not the case.

[EastBayDuckDad]

On 10/21/2024 at 8:46 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Drake..,that is an interesting  observation about human nature; we’re never happy.

 

We can be 7-0, defeated a No. 2 team, and STILL not be happy.  I remember it during the Chip Kelly days as well, that people were nitpicking about different items. They felt could be better in 2010 when we were on a national championship game appearance path.

 

Those of us that watched those high flying blur offenses in the Chip era may be inclined to find fault with the rushing yards or lack of point totals in this year's product. That 2010 team that went 12-0 and came a couple of botched calls on the Cliff Harris pick and Dyer's 'his knee was down' from winning a NC also didn't have the trenches talent that Auburn did.

 

Ditto the 2014 MM team that wiped the Rose Bowl turf with Famous Jameis and the Flawed State Seminoles, then ran into Ezekiel Elliott and the Joey Bosa led D-line of the Bucknuts. Great offenses, good but less than great defenses.

 

The 2024 iteration of OBD has the defense that can compete with anyone. So, yeah, it would be nice to have the insane offensive numbers of 2010, 2014 and 2023. Fact is the Ducks don't need to be that team. Oregon has plenty of firepower with DG at the helm and Stein calling the plays but it's the DL sculpted defense that will carry the team deep into the playoffs.

[MicroBurst61]

On 10/21/2024 at 8:46 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Drake..,that is an interesting  observation about human nature; we’re never happy.

 

We can be 7-0, defeated a No. 2 team, and STILL not be happy.

I like to call this phenomenon the "Red Zone Channel" effect.

 

In an age of almost instantaneous replay/recast access we fans tend to view the "highlights" as the whole of a team. 

 

Rarely do teams play a "complete" game, but if your not watching it live...you miss the failed executions of plays that never make the same levels of exposure.  (Unless your obsessed with OBD performances the first two games, ie Klatt and the talking head community).

 

I remember, distinctly screaming at the TV, when C. Kelly went for it on fourth down or attempted to secure a TD over a "chip-shot" field goal, and the team failed to execute.

 

Anyone else remember those moments from the past?  Unlikely, cause we Only like to tunein to the successful "highlights", which tend to bury the "lowlights", especially when winning in the end.

 

By human nature there is NO Team that can, and will, put forward their best effort, with no drop offs, week in and week out, for upwards of 16-17 games.  One of the biggest "mental" issues that coaching staffs' have to address, daily.  If you are looking for "perfection", or close to it, then you are a fan of the wrong sport.

 

OBD has a "handle" on this phenomenon (FEBU) and I am happy and hopeful from what I see from this team, week in and week out.  And although I want "perfection", I know realistically all I can truly expect is improvement and the highest floor possible for the coaches, players, and this team as we move through this inaugural season on the B1G.

 

Go Quackers!  Squash the Illini and their hopes of competing with the Top Ducks in the conference!

[FG Lumber]

I would hazard a guess that offensive numbers across the board of college football will be down from 5 years ago due to a running clock in most cases except for the last two minutes of each half.  We're not seeing 85 or 90 snaps on offense in games now.  Figures have to be skewed down quite a bit.

[cartm25]

On 10/22/2024 at 10:10 AM, FG Lumber said:

I would hazard a guess that offensive numbers across the board of college football will be down from 5 years ago due to a running clock in most cases except for the last two minutes of each half.  We're not seeing 85 or 90 snaps on offense in games now.  Figures have to be skewed down quite a bit.

Number of possessions have averaged about the same for the Ducks over the past 5 years . . . ~10-11 possessions per game (excluding kneel-down scenarios at end of either half).

 

Biggest difference this year is Ducks are scoring TDs on 40% of those possessions compared to close to 50% in 2022 and 2023.

[Charles Fischer]

I do not discount your concerns based upon the facts, but in my case--I have a belief that at the end of the season and in the Playoffs--Oregon will make the plays on offense when they are needed.  Again, I do not believe we have seen much of the offense, compared to what is to come.

 

By contrast, I recall how Dilly completely blew up Stanford early in the 2022 season with a new play series and constraints. I do not believe we would see the same kind of thing this year until later in the season, and that absence skews the stats.

 

Or I can just believe....

 

 

[30Duck]

It's very likely that the playbook is still full of stuff we haven't seen, but whatever those plays are, they aren't going to explode like they did last year. Jordan James is a beast, but he isn't Bucky Irving, no breakaway runs are going to happen, It will simply take more time and more plays for this Oregon team to get touchdowns on the ground.

 

On the other hand. As soon we were wondering when we're going to see Stewart, he has been incredible! Hard to remember a Duck WR having better back to back games than he's had against OSU and Purdue, and I expect the same against Illinois. 

[Mike West]

The best way to measure the team is to look at the stats against Ohio State.  Now think about what Georgia did to Texas in the first half of last week's game.

 

Is our OL as good as the 22 and 23 versions?  If they are, we're going to win the Natty. Because Lanning and Lupoi have decided to take away explosive passing schemes on a consistent basis. 

 

Georgia is the barometer.  Their defense is the key.  OBD ran fine against them.  We didn't have the kind of WRs we needed, but the pass protection was fine.

 

Now OBD have five WRs and 2 1/2 explosive TEs ( Mr half is very clutch at that).  The stats that matter are the stats on Game Day.  

 

Sure there are trends to identify, but how many of us really believed Gabriel and the OL would kill it the entire game against the Buckeyes?

 

I didn't, and I saw the WR/DB mismatches.  I saw the physicality against MSU. It was better than what Ohio State did to the Spartans. 

 

This team has more firepower than last year's team.  You can't stop the WRs or the TEs.  And we haven't even seen Gary Bryant yet. 

 

It's on the OL.  They look good enough to me.  But they will still have to prove it.  From the results I've seen so far, the pundits are sleeping on that OL.  I'm not concerned about 4th and 1.  I don't think we've seen the plays for 3rd and 1,2,3 or 4 yet.  

 

Watch Lanning's first game.  That OL handled Georgia very well. It was the Receivers that were the problem.  That isn't a problem anymore.  We need to vet this year's OL technique.  That, in my Mega Hack opinion, will be the difference. 

[OregonDucks]

Oregon misses Bucky Irving more than I thought we would and didn’t quite appreciate how good he was (Oregon’s best RB since LMJ?). I don’t believe that our current RBs are quite on his level (few are) and it’s had an impact on Oregon’s rushing game this season, IMHO.
 

Jordan James is a more traditional running back who can get you the hard 4-5 yards, consistently, and run over people but our offense is missing that fast, shifty runner who can break the 80 yarder and catch the ball out of the backfield.  I was hoping Whittingham could be that back this year but he doesn’t seem to be 100%, yet. Hopefully he can regain the speed and shiftiness that he had before the injury to create that true lightning and thunder backfield as we head towards the home stretch. He had an amazing catch last game!

 

Just my 1.8 cents…

Edited yesterday at 03:37 PM by OregonDucks

[cartm25]

On 10/23/2024 at 9:30 AM, OregonDucks said:

Oregon misses Bucky Irving more than I thought we would and didn’t quite appreciate how good he was (Oregon’s best RB since LMJ?). I don’t believe that our current RBs are quite on his level (few are) and it’s had an impact on Oregon’s rushing game this season, IMHO.
 

Jordan James is a more traditional running back who can get you the hard 4-5 yards, consistently, and run over people but our offense is missing that fast, shifty runner who can break the 80 yarder and catch the ball out of the backfield.  I was hoping Whittingham could be that back this year but he doesn’t seem to be 100%, yet. Hopefully he can regain the speed and shiftiness that he had before the injury to create that true lightning and thunder backfield as we head towards the home stretch. He had an amazing catch last game!

 

Just my 1.8 cents…

Agreed, we have the thunder RB, but not the lightning.