But What if We Lose the Big Ten Championship?

[Thomallister1291]

I'm sorry for having made this kinda negative post, but I thought that we also need to think about the possibilities if Penn State somehow beats us.

 

Doing all my possible calcs, I found out that there's only two possible seeds for us, the Number 1 seed or the Number 5 one, this is due to us having the best record in the nation so far, if we win, we'll be the undisputed number 1 team and we'll play in the Rose Bowl with a bye (I smell roses...)

 

But if we lose to Penn State. I have a strong feeling we'll end up with the highest first round seed, which would be #5, some people would think we could be in a battle against Notre Dame for that spot should we actually lose the CCG, but I believe we'll come out on top, since we would have an extra win (12-1 compared to 11-1), most projections have the #12 seed being either Alabama or the Big 12 champion (reconciliation against Arizona State or revenge against Iowa State?).

 

Ofc I'm hoping that we do win the CCG, but if not, I would hope we get a really weak Alabama to play in Autzen...

 

Go Ducks!

[Charles Fischer]

On 12/2/2024 at 8:06 PM, Thomallister1291 said:

I would hope we get a really weak Alabama to play in Autzen...

God Love You...you never give that up, and always hold out hope!

 

[GeotechDuck]

I think it is very likely and almost a done deal that the 5 seed is going to get some combination of the BIG-12 winner and Mountain West winner in the first and second rounds.  
 

The benefit of being the 5 seed is that you potentially have the easiest path to the semifinals, even though you have to play an extra game.  
 

You are going to have to beat the best eventually anyways to win the whole thing, so I sure hope Oregon wins on Saturday.  But if for some reason they don’t, it’s probably not the end of the world.  

I think that last SEC team will end up as the 11 seed, but we shall see. 
 

I would also love to beat Alabama.  My niece is in school there right now.
 

 

Edited December 3 by GeotechDuck

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

Notre Dame is the projected 5 seed no matter what. Recency bias will probably help them out. No matter. If you want to win a championship you have to beat the best teams, so the seed doesn't really matter in the playoffs.

[Haywarduck]

And what if we win it all an go undefeated? Will that ever be done again? How big will that look in the future? 

 

I think this is a legitimate question, but one that should be brought up under the thread of what if we lose.

 

These kind of ponderings can have super negative impacts, best kept hidden. 

[Solar]

On 12/3/2024 at 6:08 AM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

Notre Dame is the projected 5 seed no matter what. Recency bias will probably help them out. No matter. If you want to win a championship you have to beat the best teams, so the seed doesn't really matter in the playoffs.

No way the committee drops us 5 spots to punish us for playing in a CCG when ND did not, unless we get blown out by Penn State, which seems impossible.

 

And it does matter to get the highest seed to have the easiest path to the semifinal. It's hard to win every single game, especially in the playoffs.

 

My other comment is to state the obvious that this is our last chance to lose and still win it all. And a loss can serve as motivation going forward, so I'm okay with losing a close one where we make some mistakes and the ball doesn't bounce our way.

[fred flintstone]

Oregon is going to blow out Penn St. Why worry about what is not going to happen. 

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 12/3/2024 at 9:43 AM, Solar said:

No way the committee drops us 5 spots to punish us for playing in a CCG when ND did not, unless we get blown out by Penn State, which seems impossible.

 

And it does matter to get the highest seed to have the easiest path to the semifinal. It's hard to win every single game, especially in the playoffs.

 

My other comment is to state the obvious that this is our last chance to lose and still win it all. And a loss can serve as motivation going forward, so I'm okay with losing a close one where we make some mistakes and the ball doesn't bounce our way.

Notre Dame always has and always will get the benefit of the doubt. They lost to the 7th ranked team in the MAC, they have beaten only one ranked team (Army), and yet they're still ranked #4. Ahead of two SEC teams and three other one-loss teams. If you don't think it's possible that committee will jump them ahead of a one-loss Oregon team, then you're in for a big surprise.

[OregonDucks]

I’m really hoping that the Ducks win the B1G championship in its first season in the new conference! Undefeated, B1G conference champion. How cool would that be?

 

We can worry about the playoffs / seeding / matchups next week…

[Tandaian]

Just saying....  Oregon played in the first NCAA men's basketball championship game in 1939 and Oregon played in the first football playoff championship game in 2014.  The Ducks are destined to be in the Championship game this season.

[CalBear95]

ND is the golden child. They always get the best possible treatment even if they don’t deserve it. 
 

Losing at NIU at home should be an anchor on their resume and preclude them getting a first round bye or jumping any other 1 loss team especially considering the team they would be jumping will have played an extra game against a top 5 opponent before these leagues haven’t yet clued into the fact that the championship game hurts their teams more than it helps them.  
 

If the Ducks lose they should fall no further than the 4 seed unless the playoff rules say on conf champs are eligible for first round byes in which case they should do worse than the 5 seed even if that requires making ND the ) seed.  

[CalBear95]

OK…double post because I feel like ranting at the moment 

 

ND should be forced to join a conference. They skate by on a ridiculous schedule most years and are given far too much influence on how the playoff system works.  
 

If it isn’t clear, I absolutely loathe ND. 

[QuackyQuack]

On 12/3/2024 at 9:58 AM, CalBear95 said:

Losing at NIU at home should be an anchor on their resume and preclude them getting a first round bye or jumping any other 1 loss team especially considering the team they would be jumping will have played an extra game against a top 5 opponent before these leagues haven’t yet clued into the fact that the championship game hurts their teams more than it helps them.  
 

If the Ducks lose they should fall no further than the 4 seed unless the playoff rules say on conf champs are eligible for first round byes in which case they should do worse than the 5 seed even if that requires making ND the ) seed.

The top 4 seeds all have to be conference championship game champions. So ND will never be top 4 in this format even if they are ranked #1 in the Country. The loser of the B1G Championship game will be ranked no higher than 5.

[Solar]

On 12/3/2024 at 8:32 AM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

Notre Dame always has and always will get the benefit of the doubt. They lost to the 7th ranked team in the MAC, they have beaten only one ranked team (Army), and yet they're still ranked #4. Ahead of two SEC teams and three other one-loss teams. If you don't think it's possible that committee will jump them ahead of a one-loss Oregon team, then you're in for a big surprise.

ND lost to NIU.

 

OSU dropped 5 spots after losing to unranked UM. 

 

We will have been the undisputed #1 for the entirety of the CFP ranking and lose to #4 in the country in a game ND didn't have to play.

 

Josh Pate is very tied in and had stated clearly the committee will not punish losers of a CCG relative to those that didn't play in one.

 

Unless we look overmatched and get smoked by Penn State, ND does not jump us. Not happening.

[The Kamikaze Kid]

According to this weeks Ducks vs Them script, that's not how it ends. Spoiler alert, Ducks win!

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 12/3/2024 at 2:41 PM, Solar said:

ND lost to NIU.

 

OSU dropped 5 spots after losing to unranked UM. 

 

We will have been the undisputed #1 for the entirety of the CFP ranking and lose to #4 in the country in a game ND didn't have to play.

 

Josh Pate is very tied in and had stated clearly the committee will not punish losers of a CCG relative to those that didn't play in one.

 

Unless we look overmatched and get smoked by Penn State, ND does not jump us. Not happening.

You have way too much trust in the committee to do the correct thing. Let's go over some of the questionable decisions these committees have made.

 

1. Replacing FSU with Bama last season because they were on their 3rd string QB.

2. Putting a 6-win Ohio State team in the playoff in 2020.

3. Replacing #3 TCU in 2014 with Ohio State even though they were on their 3rd string QB.

4. Leaving B1G Champ Penn State out of the 2016 playoff and replacing them with B1G runner up Ohio State (whom PSU beat earlier in the year).

5. Giving Bama the 4th seed in 2017 despite them losing the Iron Bowl by multiple scores and not even playing in the SECCG.

6. Giving Notre Dame a playoff spot in 2020 despite them being blown out by Clemson when an 8-1 A&M team was left out.

 

Never underestimate the committee and never expect them to do the conventional thing. The reason being is they have hit on most of their "controversial" decisions. 

 

[30Duck]

On 12/3/2024 at 12:38 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

The reason being is they have hit on most of their "controversial" decisions. 

This is why you should never expect the "Committee" to do the logical thing. The entire premise of the Playoff selection is chaos, and yeah, afterwards it looks like their decisions worked, like letting an Alabama in without even winning their division.

 

But they won the championship. That doesn't mean it was the right decision, another team would have won it if Alabama hadn't been there. 

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 12/3/2024 at 3:54 PM, 30Duck said:

This is why you should never expect the "Committee" to do the logical thing. The entire premise of the Playoff selection is chaos, and yeah, afterwards it looks like their decisions worked, like letting an Alabama in without even winning their division.

 

But they won the championship. That doesn't mean it was the right decision, another team would have won it if Alabama hadn't been there. 

Exactly my point. It may not be logical to us, but in their minds, they know exactly what they're doing. They looked like geniuses because Bama/UGA went to OT and was a great game. They looked like geniuses again in 2022 by letting Ohio State in to play UGA because they almost won on a last second FG.

 

Then they looked like morons the next week for letting TCU in. So, they corrected the decision the following year by leaving an undefeated FSU team out because they thought they would get blown out. FSU never stood a chance of getting in last year because of what UGA did to TCU.

[30Duck]

I really don't know we have any reason to expect a committee, of 13 people propped by ESPIN, operating without recognized criteria, to produce a clean bracket. 

[Jon Joseph]

It's not happening but OREGON would be the 5-seed hosting the 12-seed and likely playing Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl instead of Ohio State, Tennessee, or Notre Dame, in the Rose Bowl.

 

PULVERIZE PENN STATE!

[Sandy Rocks]

No one wants to see the ducks play Boise State again. Of course, the ducks would pulverize them. I see this team staying undefeated and winning the championship. They really believe this Us vs. Them philosophy.

[Solar]

On 12/3/2024 at 12:38 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

You have way too much trust in the committee to do the correct thing. Let's go over some of the questionable decisions these committees have made.

 

1. Replacing FSU with Bama last season because they were on their 3rd string QB.

2. Putting a 6-win Ohio State team in the playoff in 2020.

3. Replacing #3 TCU in 2014 with Ohio State even though they were on their 3rd string QB.

4. Leaving B1G Champ Penn State out of the 2016 playoff and replacing them with B1G runner up Ohio State (whom PSU beat earlier in the year).

5. Giving Bama the 4th seed in 2017 despite them losing the Iron Bowl by multiple scores and not even playing in the SECCG.

6. Giving Notre Dame a playoff spot in 2020 despite them being blown out by Clemson when an 8-1 A&M team was left out.

 

Never underestimate the committee and never expect them to do the conventional thing. The reason being is they have hit on most of their "controversial" decisions. 

 

Here I go saying it's different this time to your examples above, but old successful people are extremely risk averse to changing the status quo, and making a decision that puts CCGs at risk in the future is not something they're gonna do.

 

SMU will be in the playoffs even if Clemson beats them, even though that would push out Bama.

[Solar]

On 12/3/2024 at 2:01 PM, Jon Joseph said:

It's not happening but OREGON would be the 5-seed hosting the 12-seed and likely playing Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl instead of Ohio State, Tennessee, or Notre Dame, in the Rose Bowl.

 

PULVERIZE PENN STATE!

Boise State will win its CCG and get the automatic bye as the 4th ranked CC over the B12 CC.

 

That what makes being 5th so great. 1st you play the 12th or worse ranked team at home, then you play Boise State and next thing you know your in the final 4..

 

We honestly can't lose next week.

Edited December 4 by Solar

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 12/3/2024 at 4:07 PM, 30Duck said:

I really don't know we have any reason to expect a committee, of 13 people propped by ESPIN, operating without recognized criteria, to produce a clean bracket. 

They actually have a set of protocols that they use (see article). The protocols are (in a nutshell) championships won, strength of schedule, head to head, common opponents, and other factors such as injured key players. This is what they’re using to fill the bracket with blue bloods.
 

The committee chairman even stated tonight that it was a “possibility” that SMU could fall behind Bama if they lose to Clemson. That’s committee-speak for “If SMU loses the ACCCG they’re out”.  
 

One can read this article and deduce that the SEC is getting no less than 4 teams in this tournament. 
 

How does College Football Playoff work? Rules, dates, more - ESPN

WWW.ESPN.COM

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The College Football Playoff is getting a makeover in 2024! Check out the new format, bracket, selection committee, schedule and other details.

 

[30Duck]

On 12/3/2024 at 6:17 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

The protocols are (in a nutshell) championships won, strength of schedule, head to head, common opponents, and other factors such as injured key players.

If they are actually using protocols, rather than, Eye Test, I'm happy. These factors make sense to me. SOR is the best tool. I think Alabama should be in before Miami. 

[MikeJ]

GeoTechDuck and Solar, Josh Pate on his show today was making your same point about the interesting comparison between Oregon's likely opponents as the #1 seed vs #5.