Is the wrong team favored in the much anticipated clash between B1G powers Oregon and Penn State?

Craig Sheman from Locked On B1G certainly thinks so! Check out the video below and leave your thoughts below!

Yeah, most of the B1G YouTube analysts think that to this point Oregon has been the significantly better team and the narratives that PSU has been holding back on play calling and Aller is sucking on purpose and the hone field advantage is huge aren't enough to change their mind.

I've had many of the same thoughts.

PSU has not played a game yet that prepares them for a game speed of Oregon.

Tackling to the ground could be an issue.

We also have impressive team speed.

Our guys have played 2 P4 teams already, which means against better D-lines and O-lines. Our big guys know what to expect.

We've also traveled to a different time zone already.

And is there a better motivator then Lanning anywhere!

Should be an awesome game. Better set the DVR cuz we'll want to rewatch this game over and over!

I can see why some would pick Penn St. but it's mostly home field advantage. So far, watching both teams, Oregon just looks bigger, faster, stronger and more skilled.

I don't buy the holding back and Allard playing bad on purpose, give me a break. At this level athletes just don't do that.

Of course the proof is always what happens on the field, The Ducks can't afford to play at any level less than their very best.

And watch for a few wrinkles Penn St. hasn't shown yet.

I don't mean to Nits pick, it isn't All on Drew Allar, I guess?

'Know your enemy.' Sun Tzu and Pete Thamel. 😁

Drew could be the difference. But in which direction? This article focuses on the late-late interception against the Irish, of course, but recall Nikko nicking Allar and the Nits. 😍I certainly do!

ESPN.com

Drew Allar could be 'The Difference' for Penn State

Penn State ended last season in heartbreak again. Allar & Co. get their first shot at redemption Saturday.

No, the wrong team is not favored. Oregon has shown some small flaws, PSU has shown about the same amount of small flaws. If you look at the game last year Penn St. ran all over Oregon, we couldn't stop it, they couldn't stop us, but that was with a different QB who had the most experience ever by a college QB, this year while I really like the look Dante Moore, he is unproven in this sort of game.

Penn St. returns two NFL RBs, we have not looked like a top 5 team against the run, we haven't looked bad, but it hasn't been as dominant as you might like.

Ultimately the game is in Happy Valley, that means the home team should be favored in what I would say is a tossup.

5 minutes ago, spartan2785 said:

Penn St. returns two NFL RBs, we have not looked like a top 5 team against the run, we haven't looked bad, but it hasn't been as dominant as you might like.

I agree - our D needs to step up against PSU and play sharp. I think our O can hang with them, but it will really come down to which team plays better D.

Personnaly I dont think P St. has looked as good as Oregon so far----but this game is being played ar P St and I think the Ducks being the underdog will motavate Our DUCKS.

I like our DUCKS in this matchup. We can throw and run in a balanced way. Penn State will have a good running game but what about passing? Drew Aller IMHO is prone to making mistakes. He should have gotten down at Autzen and given them a chance for a field goal. Most importantly, he has three new wide receivers and his go to receiver from last year was tight end Tyler Warren who is now gone. DUCKS not only cover but win this game.

Edited 11 hours ago11 hr by Santa Rosa Duck

1 hour ago, Santa Rosa Duck said:

He should have gotten down at Autzen

Perhaps, referencing the wrong QB.

I think losing Warren has forced him to find another clutch receiver for must have yardage. DM has at least three, very reliable targets available. That may be a large determining factor in winning the game.

This is not going to be a popular opinion, but Penn State lost that championship game more than Oregon won it.

Oregon had no answer for their running attack in that game. They ran for 297 yards and were averaging almost 9 yards per carry.

I still have no idea why they decided to throw the ball 40 times. Not only that, a lot of those were low percentage throws on mid to long range shots and they put the ball at risk, which resulted in 2 picks and a 50% completion percentage.

If they take some of those high risk throws back and run the ball or turn them into shorter, higher completion percentage throws, I think Penn State wins that game.

I hope Oregon has found an answer for that run game. Based on what I have seen so far this year, I am not optimistic.

It will be interesting to see if Penn State learns from that last game and just pounds it down Oregon’s throat and throws it more like 15-20 times. If so, Oregon might be in trouble.

Edited 7 hours ago7 hr by GeotechDuck

10 hours ago, OhioDuck said:

I don't buy the holding back and Allard playing bad on purpose, give me a break. At this level athletes just don't do that.

Absolutely.

Teams go vanilla to now show any wrinkles they don't want to put on film, to a degree after all there is LOTS of tape out there for what most coaches have done in past seasons. In the case of Penn State they have their starting QB and RBs and a good chunk of their offensive line. I'd expect them to run most of the same stuff they did last year, minus the wrinkles for Tyler Warren.

So the notion they're playing badly so false. If they were playing well they'd blow the doors off their competition earlier and faster and put out the second and third string and they'd keep running the score up.

It's what Oregon did to Montana State and Oklahoma this year. We executed at a high level with caring degrees of interesting offense and then threw in the subs and they went to work.

3 hours ago, GeotechDuck said:

This is not going to be a popular opinion, but Penn State lost that championship game more than Oregon won it.

Oregon had no answer for their running attack in that game. They ran for 297 yards and were averaging almost 9 yards per carry.

I still have no idea why they decided to throw the ball 40 times. Not only that, a lot of those were low percentage throws on mid to long range shots and they put the ball at risk, which resulted in 2 picks and a 50% completion percentage.

If they take some of those high risk throws back and run the ball or turn them into shorter, higher completion percentage throws, I think Penn State wins that game.

I hope Oregon has found an answer for that run game. Based on what I have seen so far this year, I am not optimistic.

It will be interesting to see if Penn State learns from that last game and just pounds it down Oregon’s throat and throws it more like 15-20 times. If so, Oregon might be in trouble.

I disagree, because Penn State never had an answer for Tez and Sadiq to a lesser extent in his breakout game.

They took some risks on some plays because they felt pressure to score and because of those two takeaways which were absolutely the QB's decisions to make the Ducks out Penn State into a position they were forced to play by Oregon's rules. Match them score for score.

Our run defense sucked... But we also did a pretty good job at times forcing field goals that game. Penn State went for 2 after a TD to try and get a point back from missing out on a TD and the Ducks stopped it I recall.

This game is going to come down to who forces the other team to play their game. If it becomes a Penn State burning clock rock fight the Ducks will probably lose something like 27-24.

But if Oregon gets some tempo and turns it into a Duck football game. The advantage goes to the Ducks as I'm not sure that offense from Penn State can keep up.

It seems about right I think?

NFL betting obviously is known to give the home team 3. I have read home field in college is usually viewed different, with 3 being the baseline but the actual number being between 2 and 6 points.

Way back in the day when I used to always grab it (maybe 1998-2008) Phil Steele on top of each team page put that number (if anyone had a good idea what that number actually was, it was probably Phil). Autzen was usually around a 6 point home edge. I'd imagine Penn State has a similar home field number.

I haven't exactly read a number given to the development of teams traveling across the whole country for a regular conference game; but, consensus seems to be it's incorporated.

Let's say an additional 2.0 points West to East and 1.5 points East to West. Maybe it is more a "situational factor" in pro lines; but, there has to be something greater recognizing Oregon or USC traveling to Penn State is just different than Rutgers or Maryland traveling to Penn State for college kids.

So, you figure if both teams travel equal distances and play at a neutral field it would be Oregon maybe about -4.5 (currently PSU -3.5 favorite but without getting the 6 + 2 point bump). Maybe a funny way to look at it but Oregon does appear a neutral site favorite 🤷‍♂️