While waiting on the Grapevine Gurus to come forth with the 1st ranking of the season, what should CFB fans, with new strength-of-schedule (SOS) and strength-of-record (SOR) metrics in place, expect?

In last season's reveal, two B1G teams, Oregon and Ohio State, were the top two-ranked teams. Eight SEC teams were in the Committee's initial top 25.

Two B1G teams, AP Poll No. 1 Ohio State, and 2nd-ranked Indiana, could be the top two teams this evening.

How much will SOS and SOR matter? We'll have to intuit this because, unlike the CBB Committee, the CFB Committee will not refer to metrics, RPI, and otherwise, as does the CBB Committee.

The Athletic ($ Wall) has released a top-25 metrics-driven ranking using ESPN's Austin Mock's SOR rankings, ESPN's Bill Connelly's SP+ Resume Rankings, and ESPN's FPI SOR ranking.

Using this ranking, the following teams would be in the PO field.

1. 8-0 Texas A&M

2. 9-0 Indiana

3. 8-0 Ohio State

4. 7-1 Alabama

The same as the latest AP Poll in a different order.

5. 8-0 BYU

6. 7-1 Georgia

7. 8-1 Ole Miss

8. 8-1 Texas Tech

Will we see this much love for the B12?

With GameDay along for the ride, BYU is in Lubbock on Saturday, playing the once Tortilla Tossing Texas Tech, 9 AM ABC.

The Cougars, playing behind a Bear, are hoping to leave Lubbock while exclaiming, "Oh Boy!" and "Every Day the PO's Getting Closer!" 😁

9. 7-1 Oregon - Mock No. 5, SP+ No. 4, FPI No. 8.

10. 7-2 Oklahoma

11. 7-1 Louisville

No. 12 6-2 Notre Dame would be out of the PO in Favor of No. 24 North Texas. 👍👌😎

Other B1G Teams in the top-25: No. 19 USC, No. 20 Michigan, No. 21 UW, and No. 25 Iowa. I hope the CFB Committee will have seven B1G teams ranked, however ...

Some other Forum Friend will likely beat me to it, which is more than fine, of course, but I'll post the Committee's 1st ranking once its released.

Then, as ESPN so intends, we can get PO'd over nothing. 🤬

SIgh. You're Fanatics, don't wait to be PO'd!

SI

Forde-Yard Dash: Why We’re Already Annoyed About the CFP...

The selection committee’s first playoff Top 25 drops Tuesday, and the Dash is preemptively fired up.

Why College Football Playoff projections don't amount to a hill of beans

There's little real value in anyone making a subjective guess about something that's going to be revealed in hours, and doesn't have any significance until the actual selection show, Sunday December 7 at 3 p.m. PT on the same network. That's the day that will live in infamy. The others are strictly window dressing.

Lastly, the warmup reveals are virtually useless. Whether Oregon, Texas or Louisville are in or out, whether a team is No. 6 or No. 10 or No. 18 at this stage is only mildly interesting. There's a month of the season to be played, and games like Oregon at Iowa and BYU at Texas Tech will determine who makes the cut. Conjectures and make-work assignments won't put any team in the final 12.

The Ducks have to go at least 3-1 to gain a spot in the field, and a 4-0 finish would guarantee them a home game in the first round. Until they achieve that, anyone's prediction of the seeding is 200 monkeys trying to type Shakespeare.

This monkey would rather focus on the Oregon offense and how they handle the blitz.

The Committee's first ranking is likely to follow pretty closely to the Coaches Poll:

Autzen Zoo

Why College Football Playoff projections don't amount to...

Everyone's scrapping for content, but this is the least meaningful content of all.

Winning out will take care of most everything for OBD's. They control their own destiny

A hard fought victory on the road against tbe Hawkeyes will enhance the perception for the Ducks.

I expext the BIG 12 to get a lot of love inspite an overall lack of quality wins, other than those against themselves.

No matter the circus that ESPN has turned Tuesday nights in November into, well OBD's need to win at Iowa.

Its step 1 of 4 play in games for DL and his team........no matter what the mouthpieces say.

Go Ducks.......

21 minutes ago, Jon Joseph said:

10. 7-2 Oklahoma

One reason I dislike this system is it does not factor in H2H matchups. Texas has the same record but they dominated OU in their game on a neutral field. Texas has a bad loss, but also a one score loss to OSU.

One thing is for sure; I do not care about the rankings as long as in the final reveal we are in.

Although a favorable seeding is nice, you still need to beat every team you play in the playoffs to be the Champs (I know, big duh here)

But, if we can't beat tosu or Indy in an early round, then we do not deserve to be the Champs.

Just win baby win and DO IT.

10 minutes ago, HappyToBeADuck said:

A hard fought victory on the road against the Hawkeyes will enhance the perception for the Ducks.

I have my doubts about that. I see us "being OK" to the majority if we win, and if we lose? We are punished badly. Yet Iowa would only go up a little...

Now if we were in the SEC...it would be completely different!

1 hour ago, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

One reason I dislike this system is it does not factor in H2H matchups. Texas has the same record but they dominated OU in their game on a neutral field. Texas has a bad loss, but also a one score loss to OSU.

Head-to-head is supposed to count if the ranking between the two teams is close.

The 1st Reveal Is B1G - 3 of OBD's Final 4 Opponents Ranked!

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2025-11-04/college-football-playoff-bracket-based-current-committee-rankings

No. 9 at this time is just fine. OBD has the chance to shine. And I found the PO Committee Chairman's comments regarding the discussions of OBD in relation to the new metrics refreshing and not the usual ducking (sorry) of tough questions.

We can parse these rankings into pulp, but it doesn't matter. SEC and B12 teams have tough games ahead. The ACC? I'm happy to see Pitt there, but this could be a one-bid league. And I'm hoping Pitt will hand Notre Dame its third loss.

Indiana's remaining schedule is a joke. And the Hoosiers playing thin air OOC? Doesn't matter.

TOSU also has a cake walk before playing a Michigan team that just lost its best running back.

It looks like OBD has the chance to earn a bye and limit the B1G to 3 PO teams, or Oregon has the chance to usher a 4th B1G team into the PO, or both?

The Games We Remember ...

Just win baby!

The remaining teams on our scheduled are ranked--just about like the eyeball test to me appeared. They are good, but not great.

3 minutes ago, The Kamikaze Kid said:

Just win baby!

Amen, Brother. And winning against ranked teams will be B1G, and also Just Mean More! 😁

Here's the comparison with the latest AP Poll -

SEC - 9 ranked - no change

B1G - 7 ranked/ +1 - This gives OBD with 3 top 25 + Bowl eligible Minnesota, a tough as it gets finishing schedule.

ACC - 5 ranked/ +1 - No. 24 Pitt is off this Saturday, then hosts 10 Notre Dame, plays at 17 Georgia Tech, and hosts, and hopefully hoists, 18 Miami. 24 Pitt has a chaos-causing PO finishing schedule.

B12 - 3 ranked/ -1

Notre Dame - Ranked 10 by the committee and the AP. After sinking Navy on Saturday, beware of the next game at Pitt.

No one has complained more about Notre Dame playing ball outside of a conference than Pitt's coach Pat Narduzzi. Since starting true Frosh Mason Heintschel at QB, Pitt is 4-0, 7-2 overall, 4 and 1 in the ACC, and in contention for an ACC title appearance in Charlotte and a spot in the PO.

https://sports.yahoo.com/article/panthers-mason-heintschel-breaks-record-233122625.html

Whole lot of PO ranking shakin' goin' on before 12/7/25. And I love where OBD is ranked now, with an excellent chance to host a home game.

In order to Host - Let's Start with Hoisting and Hosing Down the Hawkeyes!

I thought the committee did a decent job and got most of it right, other than ND. A couple of observations:

1) I am okay with Oregon at 9, but did putting Oregon at 9 essentially send the message that if they lose again they are out, barring total chaos?

2) How in the world is Notre Dame ahead of Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisville?

3) Why is Joey Galloway so dug in on ATM being No.1 based on “statistics”?? What statistics is he looking at? Indiana, tOSU, Oregon, Texas Tech are all in the Top 15 in both total offense and total defense. ATM is not in the Top 15 for either. Weird flex from Galloway.

4 minutes ago, GeotechDuck said:

I thought the committee did a decent job and got most of it right, other than ND. A couple of observations:

1) I am okay with Oregon at 9, but did putting Oregon at 9 essentially send the message that if they lose again they are out, barring total chaos?

2) How in the world is Notre Dame ahead of Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisville?

3) Why is Joey Galloway so dug in on ATM being No.1 based on “statistics”?? What statistics is he looking at? Indiana, tOSU, Oregon, Texas Tech are all in the Top 15 in both total offense and total defense. ATM is not in the Top 15 for either. Weird flex from Galloway.

Great take, Geo.

Joey is most certainly squirrely. RSWSS - Rubbing Shoulders With SEC Syndrome?

With 3-ranked teams and a bowl-eligible Minnesota coming up, I think a 10-2 OBD, without a blowout loss, will be in the PO field.

How about going 4-0 and hosting a game in Autzen!

Riffing on friend Geo's take on the Committee's 1st ranking reveals several 'Who Knew or Expected THIS?' games left to be played.

Oklahoma - at No. 4 Bama, No. 18 Mizzou, and a side order of LSU.

Texas - at No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 A&M.

Georgia - No. 13 Texas and at 17 Georgia Tech.

USC - No. 20 Iowa and at No. 9 Oregon.

Pitt - No. 10 Notre Dame, at No. 17 Georgia Tech, and No. 18 Miami

OREGON - at No. 20 Iowa, No. 19 USC, at No. 23 Washington.

You never know. In the preseason, OBD, based on prior season results, had one of the easier schedules in the B1G. Now? Heading into Week 11, OBD has one of the toughest remaining schedules of any PO contender.

Great challenges present great opportunities.

Win these games, plus the game against bowl-eligible Minnesota, and OBD is odds-on to host the No. 11 or 12 seeded team in the 1st round of the PO. And take a 1st round nap?

Hand Kirk his 90th B1G conference loss!

3 hours ago, Jon Joseph said:

I think a 10-2 OBD, without a blowout loss, will be in the PO field.

One of the few times I disagree with you Jon. I have a bad feeling that we have to win-out to make the Playoff.

But...

I have very little confidence we make the CFP at 10-2. The path for OBD's to the CFP is at 11-1.

The committee showed to much love for the SEC and the BIG 12. They lost conference games to and amongst themselves and that didn't seem to hurt them that much

Of course, its college football and chaos can happen. A BYU win over Texas Tech will help OBD's. If Texas beats both Georgia and A&M they will jump the Ducks.

Chances,are a 10-2 Bama, Ole Miss and Georgia would land ahead of a 10-2 Duck squad.

The CFP placed OBD's where they belong and left the door wide open for them to win out and get a first round road trip.. With a little chaos we could get a home game.

The PSU game has turned out to be a nothing burger at this point. OBD's played one game of value against IU at home, performed poorly and lost.

We best win out! No rose covered lenz will mask this week schedule.

GO Ducks, lots of games to be played!

This committee is going off the eyeball test. If Oregon beats Iowa, USC and fuskies they will all be unranked the following week making the wins moot. However, Oregon will still be in the playoff with wins against zero ranked teams. Notre Dame is just as bad. Once Michigan loses to OSU they will be unranked which will nullify ND's best win and give them zero wins against ranked teams. Notre Dame also plays 24th ranked Pitt in two weeks but they will render them unranked with a win.

11 minutes ago, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

This committee is going off the eyeball test. If Oregon beats Iowa, USC and fuskies they will all be unranked the following week making the wins moot. However, Oregon will still be in the playoff with wins against zero ranked teams. Notre Dame is just as bad. Once Michigan loses to OSU they will be unranked which will nullify ND's best win and give them zero wins against ranked teams. Notre Dame also plays 24th ranked Pitt in two weeks but they will render them unranked with a win.

Sad, but true. Our path is uphill, and winning out is the only solution.

12 hours ago, Jon Joseph said:

...

How about going 4-0 and hosting a game in Autzen!

Autzen in December? I remember going to the first PAC-12 championship game. It was so cold, we couldn't get our regular seats, sat in a section closer to the end zone, stairway in front of us, so people going up and down in front of us all the time, a puddle at our feet and a concrete wall next to us. I'd check the forecast first of course, but in all likelihood if the Ducks play in Autzen in December, I'll watch the game on TV!

37 minutes ago, Charles Fischer said:

Sad, but true. Our path is uphill, and winning out is the only solution.

That's a good mentality for the team to have. However, I think a two-loss B1G team will make the playoffs. Whether it's Oregon, Iowa, USC, Michigan or Washington I think they will they give the B1G the benefit of the doubt.