Oregon Football at a Crossroads

[FishDuck Article]

The Oregon Ducks football program is teetering on the edge of total collapse. Never mind the embarrassing and infuriating loss to the Utah Utes in the Pac-12 Championship game, led by Anthony Brown and one of the worst quarterback performances in recent memory. (Ahem. Why not play Ty Thompson in the second half? I’ll wait.) If we can set that aside, the future looks ...

 

Read the full article here...

[Mark R]

another test post

[toketeeman]

I agree. We don't need a contract extension. We need a reset.

[Mike West]

Impressive article Jordan!

 

Here's my take:

 

1) Very good points on the potential losses to the program if MC leaves 

2) Possible bright sides:. Oklahoma State and Baylor both have Offensive Coordinators that coached brilliantly yesterday.  Baylor's OC came from BYU.

 

I'd take either one as HC.  

 

The Oregon brand is strong. If the Snake can recruit to Oregon, and MC ramped it up better, well those two showed they can compete with Lincoln Riley on the field ( AND WIN). 

 

That's a narrative that both will be able sell to recruits. 

 

I'm going to give MC the benefit of the doubt.  Utah served him some major humble pie. He will lose all credibility if he doesn't deliver a playoff berth next year (at Oregon).  THAT WILL REQUIRE CHANGE. 

 

If he stays, he was shown exactly what it takes to reach the playoffs this week ( by several programs). And it's not what he's been providing ( with THREE playoff caliber teams at that).

 

If MC matches the performance at USC the last two years ( the only two true dominant victorious against equal talent) -over a full year, we really will have to pay him mega bucks.  And he'd be worth it. 

 

That requires an authentic NFL caliber QB.  He may have three on his hands.  So the ball win be in his court front and center next year ( he can find his OC- but HE MUST DELIVER). 

[Guest KingT]

Good piece. The timing of these events place the Schools at a severe disadvantage in so many ways. These contracts should have a premium penalty for any HC resignation during the run up to signing day. Any premium in this period should be 25% above and beyond said buyout. 

 

Miami may have some difficulty with the numbers here though. Mario's buyout is said to be about $9M, Diaz Buyout is at least $4M, and Diaz' 22 salary is about $4M. Finally, Miami will pay Mario at least $5-6M. That's more than $20M for a small private college that doesn't seem to have tons of extra money. A big ask.

 

Now, with Kiffin accepting an extension from Ole Miss signal 1) that they wanted to lock him down 2) that Miami told him Mario was their guy 3) that he decided life was good. My hunch is his agent told him Miami wanted Mario and were gonna either keep Diaz or grab Mario.

 

Finally, we know UO threw a good offer at Mario - why hasn't he signed it? If he stays, my hunch is he will sign it by noon today or certainly no later than 5 pm.  Why wait? If you wait, you are only waiting on one thing - a new job at Miami.

[30Duck]

I agree Jordan, the Ducks are at a crossroads, but could that be better than standing in place?

 

On 12/5/2021 at 5:20 AM, Mike West said:

I'm going to give MC the benefit of the doubt.  Utah served him some major humble pie. He will lose all credibility if he doesn't deliver a playoff berth next year (at Oregon).  THAT WILL REQUIRE CHANGE. 

 

But will he? Latracey noted yesterday how Utah whacked Oregon in SLC and Mario's response to that was an even worse showing two weeks later in Las Vegas, with a a 3-peat and the Rose Bowl Oregon's with a win. If anything showed Mario's resistance to change, it was this. It didn't work the first time, but he didn't see any other way to take Utah on.

 

Losing the OC and the head coach this close to Signing Day is bad timing to say the least, But all the great recruits that Mario has brought in got Oregon to here.

 

Utah didn't have close to the star power on its roster that Oregon did, but they punished the Ducks. If Oregon does get a new coach, he might not bring in as many stars, but he and the new OC, might get more out of the players they do get. Mario would be gone, but Oregon's brand, the facilities, Nike, will all still be here.

[Pocketchange]

With the cutthroat business of college football, the AD should have had a plan for this eventuality.  Mario is leaving and it’s a question of when.  Further, when every coaching job came open whether it was Miami, USC, ect, Mario didn’t deny that he was leaving and it has become a distraction from the game.

[Steven A]

I’m thinking this is probably really tough on MC.  Of course, he would like to coach at his alma mater, it‘s home, his extended family is there and mom is ill.

 

Show him the Taggart tape .... dream job that lasts less than 2 years.

 

Money might not be the deciding factor since Oregon can match anything that is thrown at him.

 

Character might be holding him back, and I hope that is the case.

 

He:  1) Has always talked about what a special place Eugene is compared to S. Flda.  2) Is building something special and has all the resources anyone could want. 3) Appears to build bonds with the recruits and their families.

 

I hope he stays and continues his path here.

 

But, if he goes, I won’t have Taggart feelings for him. I will wish him well and be thankful for his time here and for showing the world that Scott Frost was wrong, that you can recruit to Eugene.

 

Besides, we’ll survive, it is only sport escapism. 
 

[1Ducker1]

Either way it turns out Im not a Fan of Mario Cristobal Im a fan of the Oregon Ducks -1 man does not define the U of O football program.

[LilyDog]

My first post... ever.  As stated above, if the Oregon offer is not signed soon... like by Monday soon.... that bodes poorly.  All of this feels like a death watch.  My gut says that he will stay, I just hope that the new OC will fully explain what a forward pass is. 

[Haywarduck]

I think the bottomline on the total collapse of the Oregon program is the program isn't set up like it was under Bellotti, yet. We don't have the head coach in waiting, we don't have the longterm assistants who are eager to stay in Eugene.

 

This may be partly why Cristobal stays. Does he want to leave the Oregon program in disarray? He has to be extremely proud of what he has built, started to build, the job isn't done, and is fragile.

 

He is a guy who is loyal to the student athletes and a program. How do you face a guy like Noah Sewell and his family, who have given everything for the program and say I want to go home, really.

 

There is also the relationship with one of the largest power brokers in sports, do you just up and leave at this moment. This program is extremely important to PK, does he just leave that relationship because he wants to go home.

 

There is also the idea of coaching Miami, what is that? Coaching the Hurricanes has proven to be extremely difficult. Mario has an ego and maybe he thinks his coaching chops will make it different. There are a lot of coaches out there who have proven leaving a good thing doesn't always pan out, insert slick and any number of examples.

 

If he wants a challenge it is still ahead of him at Oregon. If he just wants to go home, there is nothing stopping him. I tend to think going home has to be the overwhelmingly main item. It just doesn't add up for him leaving or taking the Miami job unless he just wants to go home and cares about little else.

 

This isn't the Mario I think I know. The odds of Oregon rebounding 90%, the odds of Mario succeeding at Miami, 30%. I like our odds, and hopefully Mario thinks about this when considering the Miami job.

 

The last item is a Miami native, legend coming back to Miami to save the program isn't something new. Manny Diaz was a high school legend in Miami, although he went to FSU, who can back to Miami to lead the hurricanes. Does Mario really think he is going to get a longer leash just because he is Mario.

 

Maybe he should meet with Miami native, legend, second generation cuban immigrant Manny Diaz and talk to him about the job. Or maybe he should just look himself in the mirror and do the same.

[Duck 68]

Great post ..... Moorehead leaving is not a serious blow. MC's departure would be. I'm hoping he stays. 

[GODUCKS15]

On 12/5/2021 at 6:48 AM, 30Duck said:

I agree Jordan, the Ducks are at a crossroads, but could that be better than standing in place?

 

 

But will he? Latracey noted yesterday how Utah whacked Oregon in SLC and Mario's response to that was an even worse showing two weeks later in Las Vegas, with a a 3-peat and the Rose Bowl Oregon's with a win. If anything showed Mario's resistance to change, it was this. It didn't work the first time, but he didn't see any other way to take Utah on.

 

Losing the OC and the head coach this close to Signing Day is bad timing to say the least, But all the great recruits that Mario has brought in got Oregon to here.

 

Utah didn't have close to the star power on its roster that Oregon did, but they punished the Ducks. If Oregon does get a new coach, he might not bring in as many stars, but he and the new OC, might get more out of the players they do get. Mario would be gone, but Oregon's brand, the facilities, Nike, will all still be here.

MC pretty much showed that while stars count they aren't the only thing that matters. 

[Jon Joseph]

62-60. THIS is Mario's record as head football coach. All of the excuses in the world cannot eradicate or alter this record. $9M for this? $9M for an offense that is antiquated, puts fans to sleep and allows crummy opponents to hang in for 4 quarters?

 

You expect to road grade teams with a awesome OL and you have an OL coach is there only because of past associations.

If Mario doesn't leave, the ceiling is the Rose Bowl when it is not a semi-final site.

 

How can you have screwed up so badly that 4 and 5* QB recruits cannot beat out a mediocre, journeyman QB? 

If he leaves there are good options out there: Dave Aranda, Matt Campbell, Bob Stoops, Jeremy Chadwell, and home-boy Justin Wilcox. A guy who is fed up at CAL and with an administration and fan base that gives him no support.

 

1 final thought? Has anyone seen this great recruiting evidence itself on the field of play? 

 

[jrw]

There's no question that Mario leaving would put the Ducks' program in total disarray. The short-term pain would be immense; imagine how many current players would transfer, and how many commits would flip. It would be really bad.

 

Longer term, none of us knows. His departure could lead to the discovery of a brilliant head coach who leads the program to glory. Or, it could be the beginning of a death spiral. Want to take your chances?

 

As Jordan says, when the music stops right now, Oregon may be the only player without a seat.

 

So, there would be short-term pain regardless, with only wishing and hoping serving as a long-term plan.

[webfootfan]

I have a hard time believing that MC would bail like this at the last minute, doing serious damage to the Ducks.  At the same time, if he stays, i want him to commit to having an offense that works! I want him to get some help with game management, and get someone who can develop QB's.  

 

All coaches have an ego...it's the nature of the beast.  But the best coaches admit their weaknesses ( if they can see them) and do something about them. Hire the best OC available and let them run the offense. 

[30Duck]

On 12/5/2021 at 8:34 AM, jrw said:

with only wishing and hoping serving as a long-term plan.

 

Wishing and hoping is what we've done since Mario has been here as we try to see what his Plan is? He brings in stars and sits them on the bench. Would he gear an offense that would take advantage of TT's talents, or would he be Herbert again?

[Southwest Duck]

On 12/5/2021 at 8:33 AM, Jon Joseph said:

62-60. THIS is Mario's record as head football coach. All of the excuses in the world cannot eradicate or alter this record. $9M for this? $9M for an offense that is antiquated, puts fans to sleep and allows crummy opponents to hang in for 4 quarters?

You expect to road grade teams with a awesome OL and you have an OL coach is there only because of past associations.

If Mario doesn't leave, the ceiling is the Rose Bowl when it is not a semi-final site.

How can you have screwed up so badly that 4 and 5* QB recruits cannot beat out a mediocre, journeyman QB? 

If he leaves there are good options out there: Dave Aranda, Matt Campbell, Bob Stoops, Jeremy Chadwell, and home-boy Justin Wilcox. A guy who is fed up at CAL and with an administration and fan base that gives him no support.

1 final thought? Has anyone seen this great recruiting evidence itself on the field of play? 

 

Yes, I have seen evidence of great recruiting on the field of play a few examples….

 

2019 rose bowl

2019 pac12 championship game 

2019 vs Auburn ( a loss, but the first game I noticed our o and d lines gets a strong push against a good team)

 

2020 pac 12 championship game 

 

2021 win a the shoe 

entire 2021 season going 10-3 despite numerous injuries.  The only way 10 wins with this many injuries is possible is the depth created by superior recruiting.

 

If Mario leaves I’m afraid this program will be stuck as a 500 squad for many years, we will lose half our 2022 recruiting class and numerous current players to the portal.

 

I could see Noah transferring to Utah should MC leave.

[Haywarduck]

On 12/5/2021 at 8:33 AM, Jon Joseph said:

home-boy Justin Wilcox. A guy who is fed up at CAL and with an administration and fan base that gives him no support.

Brilliant, if Mario leaves, the next day you bring in Wilcox Head Coach, Musgrave as OC and it is off to the races. Wilcox had DeRuyter at DC before he came to Oregon. 

 

No ill will toward Mario, but I love this idea. If I was Mullens I would be talking to Justin already. We can't be left in the lurch. Give Mario until Monday to make a decision, and then pull the trigger the next day, bam!

[Steven A]

Part of the non-comital on MC's part might be at the advice of his agent for his leverage.  Kind of like when your attorney tells you to not speak to anyone (a friend told me that happens).

[Haywarduck]

On 12/5/2021 at 9:15 AM, Steven A said:

Part of the non-comital on MC's part might be at the advice of his agent for his leverage.  Kind of like when your attorney tells you to not speak to anyone (a friend told me that happens).

I remember when Bellotti did this to leverage his salary. I didn't like it then, don't like it now. I say give him a sign or see ya date. 

 

I don't want Oregon to looked at as begging a coach to stay. Make an actionable plan, have a plan and lead. We shouldn't be begging and waiting.

 

I think Mario realizes the precarious position this puts the Oregon Football Program in. I hope Mullens does too, and is working on a plan. The last thing we need is somebody with their fingers crossed, eyes closed and holding their breath waiting for Mario to make up his decision. The outcome of him leaving is too big to do that.

[PittDuck]

On 12/5/2021 at 8:52 AM, Southwest Duck said:

 

If Mario leaves I’m afraid this program will be stuck as a 500 squad for many years, we will lose half our 2022 recruiting class and numerous current players to the portal.

 

I could see Noah transferring to Utah should MC leave.

I agree with that statement Southwest Duck.  I am pretty sure that if MC is a reader of these and other site posts, he’s got the hint that the fans are done with him, so why not move on?

 

i don’t think he will, and hope he stays, but if he does leave, we are losing a lot of awesome talent and next year will be fighting for a bottom feeder bowl.

 

With Mario, we will be in the hunt.  Without MC, I think the Ducks will be lucky to win 7 game next year.

 

As I read some of these more anti-Mario posts, I can’t help but think “Be Careful What You Ask For.”

[Pocketchange]

On 12/5/2021 at 9:25 AM, Haywarduck said:

I remember when Bellotti did this to leverage his salary. I didn't like it then, don't like it now. I say give him a sign or see ya date. 

 

I don't want Oregon to looked at as begging a coach to stay. Make an actionable plan, have a plan and lead. We shouldn't be begging and waiting.

 

I think Mario realizes the precarious position this puts the Oregon Football Program in. I hope Mullens does too, and is working on a plan. The last thing we need is somebody with their fingers crossed, eyes closed and holding their breath waiting for Mario to make up his decision. The outcome of him leaving is too big to do that.

Mullens should have had a plan when USC and Florida were targeting Cristobal.  If he doesn’t that is a major failing by him.  After Taggart he should have seen this coming a mile away.

[PittDuck]

Reading a other post just now, sounds like Mario is gone.

 

I guess we will see how many Ducks follow him out.

 

Next man up!  Go Ducks.

[Jon Joseph]

On 12/5/2021 at 11:52 AM, Southwest Duck said:

Yes, I have seen evidence of great recruiting on the field of play a few examples….

 

2019 rose bowl

2019 pac12 championship game 

2019 vs Auburn ( a loss, but the first game I noticed our o and d lines gets a strong push against a good team)

 

2020 pac 12 championship game 

 

2021 win a the shoe 

entire 2021 season going 10-3 despite numerous injuries.  The only way 10 wins with this many injuries is possible is the depth created by superior recruiting.

 

If Mario leaves I’m afraid this program will be stuck as a 500 squad for many years, we will lose half our 2022 recruiting class and numerous current players to the portal.

 

I could see Noah transferring to Utah should MC leave.

 

Rose Bowl - 1 point win over a 3l team with the NFL rookie of the year playing QB in an exhibition game

Conference championship that meant nothing after the L at ASU knocked the team out of the CFP

Auburn? A game that was a lost due to game mismanagement; L against the 5th best team in the SEC

 

[Duckdude]

The sky is not falling, and all is not lost.  UO has been stuck in cement ever since Mario took over.  Can’t move forward, can’t move back.  Time to move on.  I, for one, would be glad to see a capable coach take over.  Mario’s a 5 star recruiter, but a one star coach.  How many times have we….and, even he…have said he was out-coached?  Answer: too many.

So, maybe we take a step back for awhile.  Maybe not.  But, hopefully, it’s all to return to the upper echelons with a competent coach!  Go Ducks!!!

[Washington Waddler]

     Remember, it was the players that hired Mario in the first place; Mullen’s just accepted their decision. I’m just waiting to hear from the players and recruits. No need to jump the gun until then.

 

     But until then, we are creating an image of OBD that resembles a Conestoga somewhere on the Oregon Trail just trying to survive by dumping everything in order to ford a river. Hope we can survive our own misgivings!

[81DuckAlum]

Another read at this great article. 

 

Strap yourselves in, this is going to be a really rough ride.

 

 

Mr. FishDuck, your contract with us is unbreakable.  We won't survive this without you.

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 12/6/2021 at 10:26 AM, 81DuckAlum said:

Mr. FishDuck, your contract with us is unbreakable.  We won't survive this without you.

 

I am a Duck for life, and I have WAY TOO MUCH FUN on the forum as I banter-with-my-buddies.  My role is to provide the forum platform and the organizational efforts, and my hope that if enough people come forward to do their part to retain/improve a free forum that enforces decorum like nowhere else....that the OBD forum should be here for the long term.

 

For just two months old--the growth and activity is exciting and leaves me breathless...