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Charles Fischer

Oddsmakers: "Oregon is Destined for an Underwhelming Hire"

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On 12/7/2021 at 12:45 PM, Orebcker said:

Well after the last couple weeks you could also conclude Notre Dame and Oklahoma are stepping stone programs.

 

"Well after the last couple weeks you could also conclude Notre Dame and Oklahoma are stepping stone programs."

 

I consider a "stepping stone program" to be one where a coach is coming in from a lower level, or lower tier program, to Oregon. Clearly, Taggert and Cristobal fit this definition.

 

Riley was a OU for 6 years and departed for USC. Kelly was at ND for 11 years and departed for LSU. I consider both of these moves to be virtually lateral moves, and not a stepping stone.

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How about Shawn Clark at Appalachian State?  
 

https://appstatesports.com/sports/football/roster/coaches/shawn-clark/1054

 

Who else has a .783 win percentage in D1 that might leave for a shot at taking the Ducks to glory?

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In defense of Chip Kelly:

 

Look at his ability to adapt his play calling to his personel:  from Roper to to Masoli to Mariota.  He was excellent.

 

Innovation:  far from being a one hit wonder, he brought in new ideas and continued to evolve.  This site’s bread and butter was the study of that.  Unless NFL means National Frontal Lobotomy....uh, never mind... 

 

Chip didn’t just bring an offense to Oregon, but an entire regime for practice and prep.   Those were lost immediately after he departed...and haven’t been seen since.

 

His recruiting classes were excellent, only bested by Cristobal.  Sanctions would have diminished that record, but thats not on Kelly’s recruiting ability....or ability to hire coaches who can.  
 

The big question is: what can he do as the giant, not as the giant killer.  Oregon was built as a giant killer, 40 fun years of raising hell and causing Chaos....but Mario leveraged that into something completely foreign and unexpected by any of us oldsters.  We are the giant...just a baby.  It’s Unbelievable...actually.

 

So the questions are; can Chip scheme against blue bloods with blue blood talent?  (Seriously?  It’s a stupid question , but we all seem to wonder).  And...Can he continue to build off that talent?   The assumption you can’t recruit sec talent to Eugene has been proven false....now what?

 

Imo, we’d need to continue with NFL type line play to bring in NFL bound linemen... and bring in the best  DC, and OCs with position coaches that have recruiting chops in SEC.  Cristobal didn’t have secret sauce: he had pedegree, honesty, and work ethic....that alone recruits the right kids.

 

Taggert's assistants with Kelly at the helm, not Taggart.  It’s not unrealistic.

 

Q.  What could Helf had done with Taggert’s budget and no sanctions?

 

Q2.  What would Kelly had been able to do with a field goal kicker. 4 NC games?

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On 12/7/2021 at 12:50 PM, Grandpa Duck said:

Correction.  Cas was 21-13-3 at Santa Clara from 1946-49.  In 1950 he coached Pittsburg, but lost much of his team to the draft for the Korean War and went 1-8.  At Oregon from 1951 to  1966 he was 82-73-8, but only 29-41-4 in conference.  His best years were from 1959 to 1963 when Oregon was an independent.  Liberty Bowl in 1960, Sun Bowl in 1963.

 

"Cas was 21-13-3 at Santa Clara from 1946-49"

 

True. But I don't think that even back then Santa Clara was considered D1 level. He then went 1-8 at Pittsburg, and as you pointed out, the Korean War decimated his team.

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On 12/7/2021 at 1:17 PM, 30Duck said:

 

 Exactly. But instead of that Oregon thought they could keep the momentum going with Helfrich. 

 

"But instead of that Oregon thought they could keep the momentum going with Helfrich."

 

I still like the heart of the decision to hire Helfrich. Plus, with both Bellotti and Kelly, we had experienced back-to-back exceptional success by promoting our previous OC's to the HC role. I appreciate the decision to hire Helfrich, but it was also very risky.

 

Edited by Desert Duck
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On 12/7/2021 at 1:31 PM, Marshall Lucky said:

In defense of Chip Kelly:

 

Look at his ability to adapt his play calling to his personel:  from Roper to to Masoli to Mariota.  He was excellent.

 

Innovation:  far from being a one hit wonder, he brought in new ideas and continued to evolve.  This site’s bread and butter was the study of that.  Unless NFL means National Frontal Lobotomy....uh, never mind... 

 

Chip didn’t just bring an offense to Oregon, but an entire regime for practice and prep.   Those were lost immediately after he departed...and haven’t been seen since.

 

His recruiting classes were excellent, only bested by Cristobal.  Sanctions would have diminished that record, but thats not on Kelly’s recruiting ability....or ability to hire coaches who can.  
 

The big question is: what can he do as the giant, not as the giant killer.  Oregon was built as a giant killer, 40 fun years of raising hell and causing Chaos....but Mario leveraged that into something completely foreign and unexpected by any of us oldsters.  We are the giant...just a baby.  It’s Unbelievable...actually.

 

So the questions are; can Chip scheme against blue bloods with blue blood talent?  (Seriously?  It’s a stupid question , but we all seem to wonder).  And...Can he continue to build off that talent?   The assumption you can’t recruit sec talent to Eugene has been proven false....now what?

 

Imo, we’d need to continue with NFL type line play to bring in NFL bound linemen... and bring in the best  DC, and OCs with position coaches that have recruiting chops in SEC.  Cristobal didn’t have secret sauce: he had pedegree, honesty, and work ethic....that alone recruits the right kids.

 

Taggert's assistants with Kelly at the helm, not Taggart.  It’s not unrealistic.

 

Q.  What could Helf had done with Taggert’s budget and no sanctions?

 

Q2.  What would Kelly had been able to do with a field goal kicker. 4 NC games?

 

Q2.  What would Kelly had been able to do with a field goal kicker. 4 NC games?

 

That question alone is simply painful 😉. Ouch.

 

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On 12/7/2021 at 1:18 PM, Duck1984 said:

Maybe we can find a DII coach with a winning record this time?

 

I'm certainly open to it. 

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The depressing thing about Frei's tenure, is who he had as assistant coaches... Frei resigned when the AD insisted he terminate his assistant coaches!

 

Frei's final staff included a few decent names:

John Robinson, George Seifert, Gunther Cunningham, John Marshall, and Bruce Snyder, all of whom went on to relatively successful NCAA D-1 and/or NFL careers.

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On 12/7/2021 at 1:52 PM, woundedknees said:

The depressing thing about Frei's tenure, is who he had as assistant coaches... Frei resigned when the AD insisted he terminate his assistant coaches!

 

Frei's final staff included a few decent names:

John Robinson, George Seifert, Gunther Cunningham, John Marshall, and Bruce Snyder, all of whom went on to relatively successful NCAA D-1 and/or NFL careers.

 

Yikes... great point. But given the incredible lack of resources (read: "Money") our program had back then, I'm not sure anyone was going to be very successful coaching at Oregon.

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On 12/7/2021 at 12:31 PM, Desert Duck said:

 

"Cas was 21-13-3 at Santa Clara from 1946-49"

 

True. But I don't think that even back then Santa Clara was considered D1 level. He then went 1-8 at Pittsburg, and as you pointed out, the Korean War decimated his team.

Casanova beat Bear Bryant's Kentucky in the 1950 Orange Bowl, they were a top program under Cas.

 

It would be interesting to know more, but Cas was a very accomplished, respected coach before he came to Oregon.

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Surely Oregon can do better then this.  The only one that might be someone to possibly consider on that list would be Joe Brady.

 

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On 12/7/2021 at 2:16 PM, Haywarduck said:

Casanova beat Bear Bryant's Kentucky in the 1950 Orange Bowl, they were a top program under Cas.

 

It would be interesting to know more, but Cas was a very accomplished, respected coach before he came to Oregon.

 

"Casanova beat Bear Bryant's Kentucky in the 1950 Orange Bowl, they were a top program under Cas"

 

Great catch, and I stand corrected. Santa Clara was considered the equivalent of a D1 program during that period. Cas was definitely  well respected and he had an overall winning record during his 16 years at Oregon. And as I mentioned previously, prior to Oregon, his head coaching experience was 4 years at Santa Clara, and 1 year at Pitt.

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On 12/7/2021 at 1:31 PM, Desert Duck said:

 

"Cas was 21-13-3 at Santa Clara from 1946-49"

 

True. But I don't think that even back then Santa Clara was considered D1 level. He then went 1-8 at Pittsburg, and as you pointed out, the Korean War decimated his team.

 

"I don't think that even back then Santa Clara was considered D1 level"

 

I was wrong about this. Santa Clara was considered the equivalent of a D1 level program back then.

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On 12/7/2021 at 11:14 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Chip Kelly the Favorite to be next Oregon Head Coach?
 
Could we be headed towards a reunion in Eugene? Oddsmakers believe that Oregon is headed for a reunion of some kind. Whether it ends up being a former head coach or a former player.  

Coach Odds.jpg

 

If oregon ends up with any of these guys I will be questioning the sanity of Rob Mullens. Also at this point i would rather have interim head coach Bmac as the HC.

Quick evaluation of each head coach:

 

Chip Kelly: I still think he has the offensive chops. Reasons not to hire poor recruiting, and he is to loyal to his poor coaching friends. I would put him as my number one out of the six listed but don't take that as me being a proponent to hire him.

 

Wilcox: He has been a below average coach at cal. He got his position from one great year as DC at Wisconsin(in which he was using dave aranda's scheme and players). He promoted Sirmon to play caller as a means to help his friend even though the cal defense has tumbled since. finally he has relied on the notion that cal would be better if garbers didn't keep getting injuries but despite garbers finally finishing the season the finished 5-7

 

Joe brady: first he went to highschool in Florida(this is mostly a joke about hiring coaches from florida). in reality he limited coaching experience, a total of 8 years. he has absolutely zero recruiting history and he seems way to fresh to manage a team.

 

Bryan Harsin: just put up one of the worst seasons at Auburn in 20 years, he isn't recruiting well and frankly he is very rude. I don't expect him to last long at auburn and auburn should have to pay his buyout after firing their last coach.

 

Kalani Sitake: poor recruiting, while some argue that byu is a difficult school to recruit to(it is), the recruiting at byu still dropped after bronco left. and outside of this year in which BYU did well, his only other good year was last year and playing little sisters of the poor shouldn't qualify him as a good coach. this hire would infuriate me the most. 

 

 

If it is me and i am trying to salvage the class(to some extent) and hire a homerun, start with Dave Aranda, make him say no to you first. He is an elite DC and has been since his time at Utah State. He seems to have a great understanding of what a head coach does and he is from redlands CA(San bernardino) so he won't be looking to leave the conference. Retain Bmac, and Joe Salave'a, DeRuyter and hire Dontae Williams back. 

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Isn't virtually every school a stepping stone to somewhere else?  Kelly left ND for LSU.  Urban Meyer left Florida and ended up at tOSU.  Riley left Oklahoma for USC.  Bielema left Wisconsin for Arkansas.  Carroll, Chip, Saban, Jimmy Johnson, Rhule, Harbaugh, O'Brien, many others left major winning programs for the NFL.  

 

The days of Bear Bryant, Woody Hayes, and Bo Schembechler are largely over.

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On 12/7/2021 at 2:15 PM, UtahDuck said:

 

If it is me and i am trying to salvage the class(to some extent) and hire a homerun, start with Dave Aranda, make him say no to you first.

 

 Agree with this, and also your evaluations of the contenders. Aranda is the only one of this bunch I would call a home run hire, and Oregon needs a win the day with this hire. 

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I'd take O'Brian in a heartbeat. look at what he did at Penn State under those circumstances.  Now that is what I call leadership. It took him to a HC in the NFL. Great chance he will never go back.

Look at the Alabama offense. Without a good OL. Impressive

 

Don't know if he has an alma mater. Don't want to go through that again. 

I don't believe it matters. 

 

Sounds like a winner winner chicken dinner.

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On 12/7/2021 at 2:15 PM, UtahDuck said:

If oregon ends up with any of these guys I will be questioning the sanity of Rob Mullens. Also at this point i would rather have interim head coach Bmac as the HC.

Quick evaluation of each head coach:

 

Chip Kelly: I still think he has the offensive chops. Reasons not to hire poor recruiting, and he is to loyal to his poor coaching friends. I would put him as my number one out of the six listed but don't take that as me being a proponent to hire him.

 

Wilcox: He has been a below average coach at cal. He got his position from one great year as DC at Wisconsin(in which he was using dave aranda's scheme and players). He promoted Sirmon to play caller as a means to help his friend even though the cal defense has tumbled since. finally he has relied on the notion that cal would be better if garbers didn't keep getting injuries but despite garbers finally finishing the season the finished 5-7

 

Joe brady: first he went to highschool in Florida(this is mostly a joke about hiring coaches from florida). in reality he limited coaching experience, a total of 8 years. he has absolutely zero recruiting history and he seems way to fresh to manage a team.

 

Bryan Harsin: just put up one of the worst seasons at Auburn in 20 years, he isn't recruiting well and frankly he is very rude. I don't expect him to last long at auburn and auburn should have to pay his buyout after firing their last coach.

 

Kalani Sitake: poor recruiting, while some argue that byu is a difficult school to recruit to(it is), the recruiting at byu still dropped after bronco left. and outside of this year in which BYU did well, his only other good year was last year and playing little sisters of the poor shouldn't qualify him as a good coach. this hire would infuriate me the most. 

 

 

If it is me and i am trying to salvage the class(to some extent) and hire a homerun, start with Dave Aranda, make him say no to you first. He is an elite DC and has been since his time at Utah State. He seems to have a great understanding of what a head coach does and he is from redlands CA(San bernardino) so he won't be looking to leave the conference. Retain Bmac, and Joe Salave'a, DeRuyter and hire Dontae Williams back. 

Coaches that hire poor coordinators needs to be a dealbreaker 

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The past 3 recruiting classes have been the best Oregon EVER had. We were poised for a fourth.

There is zero chance others will recruit like Cristobal. Zero.

That means that right now is the best we is ever gonna be.

 

Whom ever becomes head coach, will have to be someone who can coach up 3*. Just realize that as a fact.

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Thanks for showing the same site’s USC hiring odds.  While clearly wrong on the candidate, the odds however are telling.  Most of the names on the USC list are National “WOW” names.  Not on the Oregon list.  This shows the type of job and coach candidate attracted that the realists feel each team is due.

 

 They nailed that with USC, even if the name was not on their list.  While people want a wow hire here, and I hope so, odds seem stacked the other way.  The timing of signing day makes that even more stacked.

 

That said, I came to the conclusion after the Stanford game that MC is not a true promised land coach, just an elite recruiter. That we would be better off elsewhere.  I think that will happen, though will take a step back a year or so with this gutting of recruits.

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On 12/7/2021 at 10:23 AM, 30Duck said:

Talk about being stuck between a rock and a hard place. Oregon has to make a great hire here, but "underwhelming" seems more likely given the coaches available now. One good thing is that at best Dana Altman was "underwhelming" when he was hired. 

And how many people were excited when Bellotti named Chip Kelly OC? I think the reaction was along the lines of "Who?"

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On 12/7/2021 at 11:10 AM, Desert Duck said:

 

Going back at least 50 years, Oregon has never hired a coach with a previously winning D1 head coaching record.

Don Read, baby!  20-19 coaching up the PSU Vikings before leading the "kids" of Oregon.  (Maybe not D-1, but he had a winning record--barely--as a college coach.)

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Desert Duck raised Jim Aiken, who transformed Duck football offense from the single wing to the "innovative" "T" formation.  On his first day with the players he moved a guy from another position, end, I believe, to be the QB.  That was Norm Van Brocklin.  And if you don't recognize that name, you don't know much about Duck football history.

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On 12/7/2021 at 4:10 PM, AllOregon said:

They nailed that with USC, even if the name was not on their list.  While people want a wow hire here, and I hope so, odds seem stacked the other way.  The timing of signing day makes that even more stacked.

 

Part of the issue with the hire for oregon, is it has been a blindside late hire. USC started early and has been looking for sometime. Oregon is stuck with the leftovers. It may be possible to get a pull somewhere but time will always help with the hiring process. and as you pointed out oregon needs to hire before the end of the year. The remaining staff may be able to convince players to hold on but we will need a good coach to finish in february.

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On 12/7/2021 at 10:14 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Chip Kelly the Favorite to be next Oregon Head Coach?
 
Could we be headed towards a reunion in Eugene? Oddsmakers believe that Oregon is headed for a reunion of some kind. Whether it ends up being a former head coach or a former player.  
The former Oregon head coach is given +175 odds, or an implied 36.4% chance to land the job. Not far behind him is Justin Wilcox. The former Oregon defensive back and current Cal head coach is given +200 odds, or an implied 33.3% chance to land the job.  

 

While the two former Ducks are the favorites. There are some other strong candidates. Recently fired Panthers Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady is given +400 odds, or an implied 20% chance to land his first head coaching gig. Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin is given +500 odds, or an implied 16.7% chance. Arguably the biggest name in college football on the list is Kalani Sitake. The BYU head coach is given +600 odds, or an implied 14.3% chance to leave his alma mater for a chance to lead Oregon. 

 

Noticeably absent from the odds is Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer. Meyer has been among the top-5 to land every other major college head coach opening, but he’s not even listed as a possibility for Oregon.  

 

Quote from OddsChecker spokesman Kyle Newman, “This list is an uninspiring one for Oregon. Chip Kelly was once one of college football’s best coaches. Since returning to the college scene though he’s struggled. Kelly is 18-25 with UCLA, posting his first winning season in 2021. Justin Wilcox is 26-28 and 15-25 in conference with Cal. He’s never had a winning conference record. Joe Brady has never been a head coach and was just fired for having one of the worst offenses in the NFL for a second year in a row.

 

Harsin finished his first year at one of the SEC’s premier colleges with a 6-6 record, their first time at .500 or worse since 2015 and only the 4th time since 2000. Kalani Sitake would be an excellent hire, but he’s coaching his alma mater who’s moving to the BIG 12 making it unlikely he’d leave. It truly seems that Oregon is destined for an underwhelming hire if the odds are to be believed.” 

 

Coach Odds.jpg

BYUtv Sports on Twitter: "Free tickets for Tuesday night's broadcast of "BYU  Football with Kalani Sitake" are available now. Click here  https://t.co/h0Yne0Cy5Y to get yours.… https://t.co/zQIROf2KZH"

Why isn't Lame Kittens on this list?

Just saying that leaves a bad taste in my mouth!

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