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Charles Fischer

Oddsmakers: "Oregon is Destined for an Underwhelming Hire"

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Chip Kelly the Favorite to be next Oregon Head Coach?
 
Could we be headed towards a reunion in Eugene? Oddsmakers believe that Oregon is headed for a reunion of some kind. Whether it ends up being a former head coach or a former player.  
The former Oregon head coach is given +175 odds, or an implied 36.4% chance to land the job. Not far behind him is Justin Wilcox. The former Oregon defensive back and current Cal head coach is given +200 odds, or an implied 33.3% chance to land the job.  

 

While the two former Ducks are the favorites. There are some other strong candidates. Recently fired Panthers Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady is given +400 odds, or an implied 20% chance to land his first head coaching gig. Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin is given +500 odds, or an implied 16.7% chance. Arguably the biggest name in college football on the list is Kalani Sitake. The BYU head coach is given +600 odds, or an implied 14.3% chance to leave his alma mater for a chance to lead Oregon. 

 

Noticeably absent from the odds is Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer. Meyer has been among the top-5 to land every other major college head coach opening, but he’s not even listed as a possibility for Oregon.  

 

Quote from OddsChecker spokesman Kyle Newman, “This list is an uninspiring one for Oregon. Chip Kelly was once one of college football’s best coaches. Since returning to the college scene though he’s struggled. Kelly is 18-25 with UCLA, posting his first winning season in 2021. Justin Wilcox is 26-28 and 15-25 in conference with Cal. He’s never had a winning conference record. Joe Brady has never been a head coach and was just fired for having one of the worst offenses in the NFL for a second year in a row.

 

Harsin finished his first year at one of the SEC’s premier colleges with a 6-6 record, their first time at .500 or worse since 2015 and only the 4th time since 2000. Kalani Sitake would be an excellent hire, but he’s coaching his alma mater who’s moving to the BIG 12 making it unlikely he’d leave. It truly seems that Oregon is destined for an underwhelming hire if the odds are to be believed.” 

 

Coach Odds.jpg

BYUtv Sports on Twitter: "Free tickets for Tuesday night's broadcast of "BYU  Football with Kalani Sitake" are available now. Click here  https://t.co/h0Yne0Cy5Y to get yours.… https://t.co/zQIROf2KZH"

Mr. FishDuck

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Talk about being stuck between a rock and a hard place. Oregon has to make a great hire here, but "underwhelming" seems more likely given the coaches available now. One good thing is that at best Dana Altman was "underwhelming" when he was hired. 

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Thanks for the post Charles. I know he is not a Left Coast guy but I would take a long look at Alabama OC Bill O'Brien. He did an excellent job with the troubled Penn State program. Not a great record in the pros but the NFL affiliation helps with recruiting. 

Plus, I love the O Bama runs.

 

Now, if he could only bring Bryce Young with him?

As we saw when Bama beat UGA, and have seen throughout the course of the playoff, you need a top drawer QB to win a national title.

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Same site, odds for usc hire. Also Altman definitely wasn't on our radar, right? 

 

USC Head Coach Odds

Coach Odds Implied chance
James Franklin (Penn State HC) +450 18.2%
Luke Fickell (Cincinnati HC) +450 18.2%
Urban Meyer (Jacksonville Jaguars HC) +500 16.7%
Matt Campbell (Iowa State HC) +950 9.5%
PJ Fleck (Minnesota HC) +1000 9.1%
Mario Cristobal (Oregon HC) +1200 7.7%
Tony Elliott (Clemson OC) +1600 5.9%
Dave Aranda (Baylor HC) +1600 5.9%
Bob Stoops (Retired Oklahoma HC) +2000 4.8%
Eric Bienemy (Chiefs HC) +3000 3.2%
Chris Peterson (Retired Washington HC) +5000 2%
Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss HC) +5000 2%
Steve Sarkisian (Texas HC) +10000 1%
Pete Caroll (Seattle Seahawks HC) +10000 1%
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Is anyone asking the obvious question? After all of the money, all of the investment, Nike, an incredible national brand, etc, why is Oregon viewed by coaches as a stepping-stone program?

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On 12/7/2021 at 1:29 PM, Desert Duck said:

Is anyone asking the obvious question? After all of the money, all of the investment, Nike, an incredible national brand, etc, why is Oregon viewed by coaches as a stepping-stone program?

 

I honestly believe the last 2 departures happened only due to the 2 specific job offerings. After all, Mario is taking a 'pay cut' to coach at his alma mater.

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On 12/7/2021 at 10:29 AM, Desert Duck said:

why is Oregon viewed by coaches as a stepping-stone program?

 

 With the way coaching goes today, except for Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, every school is a stepping stone program. If your school's coach is still there after 5 years, he's either winning the championships or no other schools want him. 

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On 12/7/2021 at 11:57 AM, 30Duck said:

 

 With the way coaching goes today, except for Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, every school is a stepping stone program. If your school's coach is still there after 5 years, he's either winning the championships or no other schools want him. 

 

Agreed. Plus Oregon resides in the P5 cellar known at the PAC12. But why can't we at least attract a head coach who has previously had a winning D1 record?

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On 12/7/2021 at 10:26 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Thanks for the post Charles. I know he is not a Left Coast guy but I would take a long look at Alabama OC Bill O'Brien. He did an excellent job with the troubled Penn State program. Not a great record in the pros but the NFL affiliation helps with recruiting. 

Plus, I love the O Bama runs.

 

Now, if he could only bring Bryce Young with him?

As we saw when Bama beat UGA, and have seen throughout the course of the playoff, you need a top drawer QB to win a national title.

Thanks for all the posts everyone and Jon , you are probably right and correct, the best available choice now is Bill O'Brien and we would probably be pretty lucky to be able to snag him as HC. Wish he would be able to talk without dropping so many F bombs but he knows how to win and what it will take to win and we need to be the Pac=12 champion again before thinking about anything else like playoffs.  And that was not intended to sound like ?Jim Mora Sr.  

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On 12/7/2021 at 10:26 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Thanks for the post Charles. I know he is not a Left Coast guy but I would take a long look at Alabama OC Bill O'Brien. He did an excellent job with the troubled Penn State program. Not a great record in the pros but the NFL affiliation helps with recruiting. 

Plus, I love the O Bama runs.

 

Now, if he could only bring Bryce Young with him?

As we saw when Bama beat UGA, and have seen throughout the course of the playoff, you need a top drawer QB to win a national title.

That would be a winning combo with what's available.

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On 12/7/2021 at 11:01 AM, Desert Duck said:

But why can't we at least attract a head coach who has previously had a winning D1 record?

 

 This time, and before with Cristobal, incredibly bad timing, there really are few, if any, winning coaches, who would make the move to a new school so close to National Signing Day.

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On 12/7/2021 at 12:08 PM, 30Duck said:

 

 This time, and before with Cristobal, incredibly bad timing, there really are few, if any, winning coaches, who would make the move to a new school so close to National Signing Day.

 

Going back at least 50 years, Oregon has never hired a coach with a previously winning D1 head coaching record.

Edited by Desert Duck
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On 12/7/2021 at 10:29 AM, Desert Duck said:

Is anyone asking the obvious question? After all of the money, all of the investment, Nike, an incredible national brand, etc, why is Oregon viewed by coaches as a stepping-stone program?

Sadly, because it is 

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On 12/7/2021 at 11:10 AM, Desert Duck said:

 

Going back at least 50 years, Oregon has never hired a coach with a previously winning D1 record.

 

That is a hard piece of reality. Where did Casanova coach at before Oregon?

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On 12/7/2021 at 10:29 AM, Desert Duck said:

Is anyone asking the obvious question? After all of the money, all of the investment, Nike, an incredible national brand, etc, why is Oregon viewed by coaches as a stepping-stone program?

Well after the last couple weeks you could also conclude Notre Dame and Oklahoma are stepping stone programs.

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On 12/7/2021 at 11:45 AM, Orebcker said:

Well after the last couple weeks you could also conclude Notre Dame and Oklahoma are stepping stone programs.

 

Couldn't agree more. 

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Correction.  Cas was 21-13-3 at Santa Clara from 1946-49.  In 1950 he coached Pittsburg, but lost much of his team to the draft for the Korean War and went 1-8.  At Oregon from 1951 to  1966 he was 82-73-8, but only 29-41-4 in conference.  His best years were from 1959 to 1963 when Oregon was an independent.  Liberty Bowl in 1960, Sun Bowl in 1963.

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I strongly believe that the Ducks should be hiring a defensive-minded head coach who is capable of recruiting defensive tackles out of the deep south. I know Oregon fans are sick of the QB play for the past what? 3 years? But Oregon has the money to make a splashy hire at OC as well as a QBs coach. 

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On 12/7/2021 at 10:28 AM, Haywarduck said:

Same site, odds for usc hire. Also Altman definitely wasn't on our radar, right? 

 

USC Head Coach Odds

Coach Odds Implied chance
James Franklin (Penn State HC) +450 18.2%
Luke Fickell (Cincinnati HC) +450 18.2%
Urban Meyer (Jacksonville Jaguars HC) +500 16.7%
Matt Campbell (Iowa State HC) +950 9.5%
PJ Fleck (Minnesota HC) +1000 9.1%
Mario Cristobal (Oregon HC) +1200 7.7%
Tony Elliott (Clemson OC) +1600 5.9%
Dave Aranda (Baylor HC) +1600 5.9%
Bob Stoops (Retired Oklahoma HC) +2000 4.8%
Eric Bienemy (Chiefs HC) +3000 3.2%
Chris Peterson (Retired Washington HC) +5000 2%
Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss HC) +5000 2%
Steve Sarkisian (Texas HC) +10000 1%
Pete Caroll (Seattle Seahawks HC) +10000 1%
 

Thank you...why all these pundits that get paid to put crap out there...let's just wait and see first.  And not Chip, please!

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On 12/7/2021 at 11:59 AM, Ducktail said:

I strongly believe that the Ducks should be hiring a defensive-minded head coach who is capable of recruiting defensive tackles out of the deep south. I know Oregon fans are sick of the QB play for the past what? 3 years? But Oregon has the money to make a splashy hire at OC as well as a QBs coach. 

Aranda, with Brady as OC...dream team!!!

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On 12/7/2021 at 12:13 PM, 30Duck said:

 

That is a hard piece of reality. Where did Casanova coach at before Oregon?

 

"That is a hard piece of reality."

 

I had the same take as you. I took time to look at this yesterday, and then again today going back further to Aiken, Casanova, Frei, & Enright. From what I can find, none of them had a previously winning D1 head coaching record -- except for Aiken. And further, most of our coaches never had previous college head coaching experience (Frei, Enright, Brooks, Kelly, & Helfrich), let alone D1 head coaching experience.

  • *Casanova at least had a winning record at Santa Clara (23-13-3), but then went to Pittsburg for one season and was 1-8. And then onto Oregon.
  • *Frei had never previously been a head coach prior to Oregon, and appears to never have been one after Oregon.
  • *Enright also had never been a head coach prior to Oregon, and appears to never have been one after Oregon.

In 1947, Oregon hired Jim Aiken who did have a winning record at Nevada - 38-26-4.

 

So, we have to go back about 75 years to find an Oregon head coach who, prior to coming to Oregon, had a winning D1 record.

 

If we were ever going to hire a marquee coach with a previously winning D1 record, I think it was going to come on the heels of Chip Kelly.

 

 

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On 12/7/2021 at 12:13 PM, Desert Duck said:

If we were ever going to hire a marquee coach with a previously winning D1 record, I think it was going to come on the heels of Chip Kelly.

 

 

 Exactly. But instead of that Oregon thought they could keep the momentum going with Helfrich. 

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Maybe we can find a DII coach with a winning record this time?

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On 12/7/2021 at 12:07 PM, JDuck said:

Aranda, with Brady as OC...dream team!!!

This^^^^^

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