NIL, Will the Goose That Lays the Golden Egg Kill Itself?

[Steven A]

It will be interesting to watch these mega NIL deals over the next few cycles.

 

Not only the locker room situation of haves and have-nots, but boosters will want/demand a ROI (return on investment).  After a couple of mega busts, coaches might not be able to go back to the well.

 

A & M’s approach of $50K per O-lineman seems a better situation, spreading the wealth and spreading the risk.

 

Oh, and it could devolve more and more into the pro situation with the players making more than the coaches.  Will players take “lip” form someone making less, or give lip to them.

 

We have already seen a player holding out for spring practice for more NIL, we are now only waiting for the “prize” recruit to get his coach fired or he’ll leave.  Don’t laugh, you heard it here first.
 

[Charles Fischer]

On 3/21/2022 at 1:07 PM, Steven A said:

we are now only waiting for the “prize” recruit to get his coach fired or he’ll leave.

Or his position coach...what a terrible spot to put Athletic Administrations into!

[Drake]

I want to believe that generating a steady stream of NIL money for a team overrides a one time large lump sum to one player. Especially if your one time lump sum player is injured, or doesn’t pan out as expected.
 

Raiding other teams rosters may become a full time job for many teams. Won’t be a shocker to see starting players leave for better financial opportunities. This may get much worse before it gets better. 

[DanLduck]

On 3/21/2022 at 1:07 PM, Steven A said:

It will be interesting to watch these mega NIL deals over the next few cycles.

 

Not only the locker room situation of haves and have-nots, but boosters will want/demand a ROI (return on investment).  After a couple of mega busts, coaches might not be able to go back to the well.

 

A & M’s approach of $50K per O-lineman seems a better situation, spreading the wealth and spreading the risk.

 

Oh, and it could devolve more and more into the pro situation with the players making more than the coaches.  Will players take “lip” form someone making less, or give lip to them.

 

We have already seen a player holding out for spring practice for more NIL, we are now only waiting for the “prize” recruit to get his coach fired or he’ll leave.  Don’t laugh, you heard it here first.
 

I think it is the UT Longhorns paying O linemen. 

 

I don't see coaches losing influence over players. If a guy isn't performing, he won't play. Period.

 

As this goes along, companies and boosters will require more specifics when handing out big cash.

ROI will become an issue.

 

This NIL will become more divisive in more ways than we can imagine. 

[DanLduck]

Let me add that unless it's the #1 booster of a school, no boosters will be able to fire a coach.

 

In the pros, the owner is paying everyone. So he does have the say.

 

High school kids are a bust often enough anyway, without NIL. I don't see coaches being terminated...but you never know.

[Steven A]

On 3/21/2022 at 2:10 PM, DanLduck said:

no boosters will be able to fire a coach.

I'm not sure Manny Diaz would agree.

[Charles Fischer]

On 3/21/2022 at 2:51 PM, Steven A said:

On 3/21/2022 at 2:10 PM, DanLduck said:

no boosters will be able to fire a coach.

I'm not sure Manny Diaz would agree.

This is one time I wish I had an "Ouch!" reaction symbol, as a thumbs up doesn't do it.  I am putting together a list of new ones to add and "Ouch!" is one of them.

[Jon Joseph]

It's fairly and with no disrespect, obvious. Guys in the money ball sports will be paid and wither women and Olympic sports?

 

NIL will render Olympic sports, including women's sports obsolete. It will lead to players in the money ball sports being 'employees' and being paid. It will also lead to a number of universities dropping athletic schollies and going D3.

 

It will lead to a small group of schools playing 'big time' CFB and CBB.  

[Charles Fischer]

On 3/21/2022 at 4:17 PM, Jon Joseph said:

 

It will lead to a small group of schools playing 'big time' CFB and CBB.

I have my doubts about that....and I'll explain why (my opinion) in an upcoming article.  I've been pondering this for a bit...

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/21/2022 at 7:50 PM, Charles Fischer said:

I have my doubts about that....and I'll explain why (my opinion) in an upcoming article.  I've been pondering this for a bit...

I am looking forward to your take.

[Pocketchange]

NCAA sports was already dead.  Who wants to watch a player wreck their knees, damage their brain, or get paralyzed for no income.  While the NCAA, universities, advertisers, broadcasters, and coaches are in a multi billion business.  
 

No one asked if it was the end of collegiate sports when the Ohio State abuse scandals from 1978-1998, the jerry Sandusky scandal, or how no one said it was the end of Oregon football when our coach put multiple athletes in the hospital because our coach thought they “were not tough enough”.
 

All of our sports are already divided into have and have nots: who thinks that Alabama and Ohio State will be out of the playoff discussion within the next ten years?  If anything, with NIL, smaller teams will be able to lure big time recruits from larger schools.

 

College sports has survived some of the worst policies, scandals, and even pac 12 refs.  The most adaptable teams will not only survive but will thrive generating revenue for all involved. 

[Haywarduck]

The smart NIL money will reward play at the collegiate level. All this money chasing high school kids is going to ruin the 'culture' of college football. Programs who reward players who are performing, whether it is a transfer or star player will thrive. Transfers are the ones who should be rewarded. The starting players should also receiver NIL money unlike the rest of the team. Performance should mean pay.

 

Players who come on campus already fat and happy will most often make the team worse off. I can only imagine how the upper classmen are going to receive these overpaid freshman. There use to be hazing, and I can only imagine hazing on steroids for some of these kids. 

 

I remember how Oregon use to put out a few select jerseys for sale at the start of the season. The DAT jersey and a couple others. The players got none of the money. In the future those select players should benefit from their past performance, and lead the team. This can be a healthy situation as long as their is respect of the team and players who have earned it. I will say no one knows how it will all play out, only time will tell.

[Jon Joseph]

Great comments. Yes, Diaz was run off and if the two MI ST boosters paying Mel Tucker $9M a year aren't happy, Mel is gone.

 

I question the above comments in regards to lack of ROI on a given player dampening the zeal of the 'fanatics' making these deals. These people have more money than sense and a few NIL misses isn't going to damper their zeal or reduce their pocketbook to cents.

 

NIL cannot be regulated without a collective bargaining agreement; the kind of agreement we see between players and 'management' in every pro sport. I think it is odds-on that the NLRB will allow players on scholarship to form a union. Congress could act to 'standardize' state NIL legislation but Congress based on the Supreme Court's decision in Alston, cannot make NIL go away.

 

Caleb Williams and his Dad before signing with the Trojans said that it is about the NFL $ and not NIL $. Other players will make the same kind of decision which is why it is imperative for the Ducks to routinely advance players in significant numbers to the NFL.

 

Of course, Caleb Williams does not come from a horrific financial background; although, I imagine he is being paid quite nicely to play at SC? Many the recruiting decision of young men from less advantageous financial backgrounds will be driven solely by the NIL money. (What's new? CAM went to Auburn even though he could have made more money playing elsewhere?)

 

Other than for a few teams, recruiting in the Pac-12 stinks. It was believed that NIL might bring more parity to CFB but I don't see it happening. Financially, college sports is clearly headed to a Power 2. Teams in the B1G and the SEC will have even greater market power over the other conferences.

 

Whether NIL is ruining or will ruin CFB is a matter of personal perspective. If A+M wins the SEC and a Natty in a year or two I very much doubt that Aggies fans will be concerned that NIL bought the highest ranked recruiting class of all time.

 

Enjoy 'the game' for as long as we can. The game, in a very short period of time, has already been materially altered from the manner in which it has been played for over 100 years.

[Charles Fischer]

I think Dan Lanning, this quality staff, and reasonable NIL income can still do very well in the new environment.

 

What do I predict for Oregon?

 

Winning.

[McDuck]

I haven't followed labor law closely but how would a collective bargaining agreement apply in a right to work state?  A player would have the right to refuse joining the union so wouldn't they have the right to negotiate their own NIL deals?  The school isn't the employer so they have would have no say in the matter.  

 

The professional CBA's impose a salary cap on what a team can pay, I don't believe they govern the additional money a player can earn with endorsements and appearances.  Wouldn't the same hold for a college CBA?  For example, Texas is a right to work state.  A recruit could not be required to join the collective bargaining agreement.  While the school gives him the same benefits as other scholarship holders isn't he free to negotiate NIL compensation without limits?  The funds would be from outside interests who are also not signers on the CBA?

[Washington Waddler]

On 3/21/2022 at 2:00 PM, DanLduck said:

As this goes along, companies and boosters will require more specifics when handing out big cash.

ROI will become an issue.

      I’m not sure that’s even remotely possible with high school students.

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/22/2022 at 12:43 PM, McDuck said:

I haven't followed labor law closely but how would a collective bargaining agreement apply in a right to work state?  A player would have the right to refuse joining the union so wouldn't they have the right to negotiate their own NIL deals?  The school isn't the employer so they have would have no say in the matter.  

 

The professional CBA's impose a salary cap on what a team can pay, I don't believe they govern the additional money a player can earn with endorsements and appearances.  Wouldn't the same hold for a college CBA?  For example, Texas is a right to work state.  A recruit could not be required to join the collective bargaining agreement.  While the school gives him the same benefits as other scholarship holders isn't he free to negotiate NIL compensation without limits?  The funds would be from outside interests who are also not signers on the CBA?

Great question. One of many that have and will be raised regarding CFB/CBB being unionized.

 

Of course, unions do exist in right to work states. Whether an individual player joins the union or not, the agreement made with the union would still be binding on 'management.' Defining who or what 'management' will, of course, be a big part of this rub.

 

Like in the NFL, I do not see any agreement restricting an individual's right to earn additional money from his NIL. But a 'salary cap' will likely be negotiated. And restrictions of free agency will likely be negotiated. But without a high school draft, how do you limit boosters via NIL from influencing recruiting?

 

If the NLRB allows a players union to be formed, this will the ipso facto mean that the players are employees of the given school 'paying' the player via free tuition, room and board, and all other benefits. (A double edged sword for players who will be taxed on this income.)

 

I do not see uniformity necessarily following players being union members. For example, the SEC is likely to have a far larger salary cap than will the Mountain West. Will WAZZU agree to the same salary cap as USC?

 

Players unions for CFB/CBB come about and a number of institutions offering athletic scholarships today are likely to opt out of 'big time' sports and go the D3/Ivy League route. The Ivy League allows all sports except CFB to participate in NCAA post season tournaments. The NCAA of course runs a D3 CFB tournament.

 

But tens of thousands of fans do not show up to watch Ivy League and D3 ball. And media doesn't shell out big broadcast money to the Ivy League and the D3.

 

Many folks including yours truly, can project where they think P5/G5 is going. But no one from conference commissioners on down have concrete answers as to the ultimate impact NIL and CFB/CBB free agency will have on 'big time' college sports?

 

My best guess? A Super League in Men's CFB and CBB is coming. And I will not be surprised if the money-ball sports are not outsourced by universities to a 3rd party(ies) that will be the employer of the athletes? I also think that where CFB/CBB are headed will be decided before the 2030's. 

 

You want to expand the CFB playoff to 12 teams? Fine. But it best include a plan to pay the players for their post-season participation. The decision to expand the playoff has to occur in the next 30 or so months in order for the playoff committee to bring a product to the media marketplace.(Will the current 11 'playoff stakeholders' be able to reach a post-2025 playoff consensus? I have my doubts.)

 

Sorry to bloviate. My simple answer is that I am going to follow Charles' sage advice, I am going to follow Ducks sports wherever 'This Stuff' may lead.

Edited March 22, 2022 by Jon Joseph

[Charles Fischer]

I believe in the precipice scenario; people get up to the edge of the canyon or the precipice and decide that they don’t want to jump in, and then step back and take action to build a bridge over it, get around it, or solve it.

 

I do not think that any of those aforementioned dire consequences take that component of human nature into account. I am hopeful that things will not disintegrate into such a dire result.

 

For one thing, you can expect to see young women in the court room suing for the loss  of their ability to get a college education through athletics. 

[DanLduck]

I know boosters have influence over coaches hiring and firing. I just was thinking about a blue-chip, big NIL kid not working out being the kids fault, not a coach. Clearly I have not been involved as a big $ donor!

 

This will take a few years to settle out, maybe longer. In the meantime, some will do all they can to take advantage. 

 

I hope we can continue to have a quality product on the field. 

And as Charles so eloquently put it

"keep winning" !!

[Just Ducky]

 It certainly will make a difference for each school depending on the revenue stream available from their boosters. Some schools will have a huge advantage in this endeavor, which has been going on for a long time, but that doesn’t mean the correct decisions will be made.

 

They will still rely on coaching evaluations, sometimes bad, on talent and that hasn’t worked out for some universities ever. Spending tons of money on a bad situation is not a good business model and is unsustainable.  Some schools consistently make it work and I think that that will not change much.

 

The two Texas schools tossing money around will give us a gauge to look back on in a couple years for sure. It will be interesting and will give us lots to discuss in the future. Welcome to the mini NFL.

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/22/2022 at 3:51 PM, Charles Fischer said:

I believe in the precipice scenario; people get up to the edge of the canyon or the precipice and decide that they don’t want to jump in, and then step back and take action to build a bridge over it, get around it, or solve it.

 

I do not think that any of those aforementioned dire consequences take that component of human nature into account. I am hopeful that things will not disintegrate into such a dire result.

 

For one thing, you can expect to see young women in the court room suing for the loss  of their ability to get a college education through athletics. 

Terrific comment.

 

However, can you force schools to give athletic scholarships?

 

If no males are on athletic scholarship where is the standing for females to bring suit? This is why I believe CFB/CBB will be outsourced?

 

At my D3 college there are no athletic scholarships. As a matter of principle, many women's sports are played. 

 

Many the male sport was eliminated by Title IX and no suit against the same happening was sustained.

 

If CFB/CBB scholarships go away but baseball, T+F, swimming, etc. do not, T9 will still apply. But there will be fewer number of scholarship sports. Many sports will return to being club sports.

 

Colleges and universities have been in existence far longer than athletes have received scholarships based upon their athletic ability.

 

As to the future, your thoughts are at least the equal of mine. I just do not see many the school wanting to become the employer of money-ball athletes to save a number of sports, male and female, from being cut?

 

Once upon a time all of the sports played today were 'after-school,' voluntary activities for members of the student body who so wanted to participate. And today, the majority of NCAA member institutions do not grant athletic scholarships. 

[Charles Fischer]

Bottom line....is NIL, is ANY of this stuff going to change college football THIS fall?  No!  Will it affect the next fall?  No.  Will it affect the 2024 season?  Maybe some...

 

So why are people checking out now?

 

It could be a lot

worse right now...

[LuckeyDuck]

I think these geese will lay too many rotten eggs instead of golden, and it's starting to smell already