Oregon’s Best Offense Ever; Plus Kickoff Idiocy and Burying Georgia

[FishDuck Article]

Oregon’s offense under Bo Nix and Kenny Dillingham is the best in the school’s 130 years of football.  No team before this one has done more with the ball in hand. Stats show that it isn’t even close. With Nix at quarterback, the Ducks have scored on two-thirds of their drives. None of the teams under Mike Bellotti, Chip Kelly, ...

 

 

Oregon’s Best Offense Ever; Plus Kickoff Idiocy and Burying Georgia

FISHDUCK.COM

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Oregon's offense under Bo Nix and Kenny Dillingham is the best in the school’s 130 years of football. No team before this one has done...

 

[Smith72]

Thanks Drex for showing us the numbers!  The Ducks this year are efficiently scoring points 74% without the loss to Georgia.  Wow!

 

You make a good point about injuries on kickoffs.  

 

Thank you for sharing a thought provoking article.

[HappyToBeADuck]

Drex, thank you for  the article and taking the time to round up those offensive efficiency stats.

 

My props go out to what is arguably the Ducks best offensive line, maybe ever. They run block and the stats support they are #1 at pass protection. Yes Bo is reading the defensive sets and calling audibles and check downs. But they are giving Bo the time to go thru his progressions and the receivers time to get open. Then Bo is operating at a high level of execution. Fun to watch.

 

Props to Dilly for solid game plans and in game adjustments. The diversity in play calling off just a few basic formations must be keeping opposing DC's up all night.

 

IMHO, the committee will not hold the Georgia beatdown against the Ducks. It will help the Ducks, immensely if The Dawgs beat down Tennessee and finally play as well as they did against the Ducks.

 

As long as OBD's win out the main reason they will miss the invite is because their are 6 undefeated teams and a one loss Bama ahead of them. There is a good chance that when the dust settles there will be 4 undefeated conference champions left standing. Probably wont happen, however if it does, the committee will not be considering the Ducks.

 

All the Ducks can do now is beat Colorado and see if Georgia survives this weeks game sgainst the Vols.

 

GO DUCKS!

[nw777b]

Amazing research! Well done and thank you very much.

 

I'm impressed with the number of 3rd and shorts and the amazing 4th down results this year, as well.

[Just Ducky]

 Thanks Drex. Lot of research, well done.

 

 The QB sneak is a huge tool to add to the arsenal as well. Dilly is using it well and often. We’ve been lacking that play for some time now. With as good of an O-line as we have there is little reason not to use it. MarinoO should try it some time instead of the pistol plunge.

[Duck Fan 76]

Great article, we all hope that Oregon can keep its production at the same level for the seasons last three games after Colorado and then Vegas.

 

As far as the playoffs it's pretty clear that Oregon is considered near the top of the 1-loss teams and the committee will favor a 1-loss conference champion over a 1-loss team without.  That means some very good teams are going to get iced out of the playoffs.  My money for the bracket is on Georgia, Ohio St, Clemson and either TCU or Oregon (no surprises here).  

 

I think it's likely going to come down to TCU going undefeated or not.  Having 4 undefeated and then a 1-loss power five conference champion isn't a hard choice for the committee.  TCU's last four games are against unranked opponents and then they have their championship which is probably a rematch against K. State.  Texas and Baylor have the talent to drop TCU but they aren't playing that well so who knows honestly.  TCU looks shaky.  If TCU takes a loss and still wins their conference then in theory Oregon and TCU are at the same level but Oregon likely wins the eye test and gets the slot.

 

A 1-loss Georgia or Ohio St that win their conference would edge Oregon and Clemson just isn't likely to loose given the ACC.  Chaos happens if Tennessee beats Georgia this weekend or Alabama wins the SEC, but I honestly don't think that's likely.  That scenario could see two SEC teams in the playoffs.

 

I'm honestly in a good place with the Ducks season and if we take a second loss or lose in Vegas it's still a great season and the program is undeniably heading in the right direction.  If we win out but miss the playoffs my disappointment will be for the players missing that experience (especially Bo and the O-line).  The ceiling is sky high for the Ducks and there are some great teams this year that are just going to miss the playoffs.  The 12 team playoff can't come soon enough.  In that system?  Oregon is a perennial and recruits will know it. 

Edited November 1, 2022 by Duck Fan 76

[Annie]

Since the rule changed to getting the ball on the 25 yard line instead of the 20, it seems to make sense in most cases to take the fair catch. I remember in the past that while there were certainly some big run backs, often the Ducks would get to the 22, 23, or 24 yard lines, which while better than starting at the 20, now one can start on the 25 without the risky run back.

[jrw]

Now, that was some impressive research leading to a, I think, surprising and important conclusion. If the Ducks get the ball, they score, more regularly than they ever have.

 

Another reason to appreciate this season. It's a very special one, one to be savored.

[Charles Fischer]

Fantastic research Drex, and it makes us feel that what seems to be true by the eyeball test is true from the stats.  Thanks so much...

 

[Duck Fan 76]

On 11/1/2022 at 8:00 AM, Annie said:

it seems to make sense in most cases to take the fair catch

Player safety as I recall was the purpose of the rule change.  Kickoff returns are injury factories and they don't offer a lot of value to the game so the NCAA was trying to get more touchbacks.

 

A good tactic for Oregon might be to use kickoff predictability against teams.  If they favor a conservative fair catch/touchback policy and only return in obvious return situations they can lull the coverage team and look for clear opportunities. 

 

This is what Oregon did with the onside against UCLA.  They knew they would likely have a favorable look based on UCLA players not respecting the onside and they timed it to swing/amplify game momentum.  A similar approach with kick returns makes sense to catch coverage phoning it in. 

[Mic]

I'd maybe agree with Charles on this contention of the "best offense ever" except for one glaring issue: "red zone efficiency".  Oregon is still, (after 8 games) struggling to get the ball in the end zone once they're inside the 20.  And it's puzzling as all get out to me. 

 

Outside the 20, esp. around the 40, lights out!

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/1/2022 at 9:48 AM, Mic said:

for one glaring issue: "red zone efficiency".  Oregon is still, (after 8 games) struggling to get the ball in the end zone once they're inside the 20.

Oregon has been in the Red Zone 46 times, and scored on 40 of them (only seven field goals) for an 87% percentage of total conversion.  That doesn't suck...

 

[Just Ducky]

 Little off topic; Ducks -31.5 on the road. That’s a huge spread for a away game. For all the wagering enthusiasts.

Edited November 1, 2022 by Just Ducky

[Drex Heikes]

Charles, thanks for that red zone efficiency info. Reading that its 87 percent, occurs to me that part of the scoring efficiency stems from a field goal kicker who has yet to miss. Wish I'd mentioned that in the article. 

Edited November 1, 2022 by Drex Heikes

[DUCati855]

Thanks Drex!

 

This offense has been rolling. It may not have the eye-catching flash of the Kelly/Helfrich years. But, it is definitely more efficient and sustainable. 

 

I agree that accepting the ball at the 25 is likely the safest and smartest move. But, then I remember D'Anthony starting off the Kansas State game in jaw dropping manner. Nothing says "Oregon Football" (to me) like a 100 yard dash to start the game more than that play! It may not be smart... but, I like me some special teams excitement.

 

I want Georgia to repeat as National Champs and I believe they will. My opinion... I've said this before and I'll keep saying it. I would rather finish the year 13-1 with a blowout win in the Rose Bowl (likely final ranking #4). Than 12-2 with a loss (and it would be a loss) in the play offs (final ranking of 5-6). Go into the off season with a win and some momentum. This young team will peak in Dan Lanning's second (or third) year. Great things to come for our Ducks either way.

 

 

[OhioDuck]

Thanks for the great work on these stats. I knew this offense was good but didn't realize how good.

 

There are so many weapons this offense has as threats for big plays and the coaching staff is ready to use them all.

 

What do you stop, interior running, edge running, running backs, QB runs, the edge with wide receivers or tight ends,

wide receivers, tight ends and backs going deep... 

 

We are so loaded with play makers and the players are now encouraged to make plays. I would hate to be a DC and try to figure out a game plan to stop this offense.

[McDuck]

On 11/1/2022 at 10:28 AM, DUCati855 said:

I would rather finish the year 13-1 with a blowout win in the Rose Bowl (likely final ranking #4). Than 12-2 with a loss (and it would be a loss) in the play offs (final ranking of 5-6).  Go into the off season with a win and some momentum.

I thought I was the only one who felt that way.  Heck, I'll gladly settle for a one point Rose Bowl victory over the B1G.

[Jhoff]

I often wondered about electing to run the kickoff back instead of taking it on the 25. Maybe coaches think that there's not much difference from starting from around the 20 (which seems where most of the run backs end up) as opposed  to the 25. So it might be worth electing to run it back with the possibility of a big return.

[Mic]

On 11/1/2022 at 10:07 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Oregon has been in the Red Zone 46 times, and scored on 40 of them (only seven field goals) for an 87% percentage of total conversion.  That doesn't suck...

 

I guess I'm wrong - but why does it seem Oregon has been struggling there, was it the recent games, sans UCLA?  If we throw out the EWU and UCLA games, what's that % look like, I wonder.  I believe O was 1 of 3 in the 1st Qtr vs CAL with a T.O. on downs and an int.

[1950sDuck]

Interesting article.  I know it would be a very small sample size; but I wonder where the Dennis Dixon lead Oregon offense would rank in this schematic?

[1Ducker1]

Great Article!!

[Drex Heikes]

1950s Duck…I have those numbers for Dixon team somewhere. Let me dig them out for you. 

 

As for red zone, Mic, maybe the perception stems from this: Oregon has raced down the field a bunch of times—against Wazzou and Cal, notably—and had to take a FG. After traversing 60 yards and stalling inside the 20 to get just 3 feels like red zone woes? 

[Notalot]

On 11/1/2022 at 1:28 PM, DUCati855 said:

Thanks Drex!

 

This offense has been rolling. It may not have the eye-catching flash of the Kelly/Helfrich years. But, it is definitely more efficient and sustainable. 

 

I agree that accepting the ball at the 25 is likely the safest and smartest move. But, then I remember D'Anthony starting off the Kansas State game in jaw dropping manner. Nothing says "Oregon Football" (to me) like a 100 yard dash to start the game more than that play! It may not be smart... but, I like me some special teams excitement.

 

I want Georgia to repeat as National Champs and I believe they will. My opinion... I've said this before and I'll keep saying it. I would rather finish the year 13-1 with a blowout win in the Rose Bowl (likely final ranking #4). Than 12-2 with a loss (and it would be a loss) in the play offs (final ranking of 5-6). Go into the off season with a win and some momentum. This young team will peak in Dan Lanning's second (or third) year. Great things to come for our Ducks either way.

 

 

Top recruits. Better get on the Dan Van. The Big O is coming.

[Drex Heikes]

1950s Duck,

 

Oregon scored on 53 percent of its drives in 2007 when Dennis Dixon was QB. 60 of 114 drives.

 

If you recall, Dixon's season and Heisman campaign crumpled to the ground in Arizona in third to last game of regular season. All these years later, it still is heartbreaking to read the play-by-play line from Oregon's third possession of 1st Q: Dixon sacked for loss of 5 yards. No mention of the injury. But Brady Leaf took over next play.

 

 

Edited November 1, 2022 by Drex Heikes

[mikethehiker]

Thank you for the great and well-researched article.  I DO remember many, many, 3 and out's from the Chip Kelly days.  We scored fast, but many times it took a few drives to get started.  This year, we see long backbreaking drives from the offense.  It would be really interesting to compare average plays per drive from year to year.

 

Agreed on kickoff returns, especially with this year's offense.  Only return situationally, when there's a clear advantage and the team needs a spark.

 

It's not so much comparing 2014 Ohio St. vs 2022 Oregon as much as it is the other elite teams available (although it's a great point).  There was only one unbeaten team in 2014 (a flawed Florida State team ranked #2, not #1).  I'm also ok with Oregon missing the playoff to win a Rose Bowl.  However, my dream scenario is an Oregon vs. Georgia rematch in the National Championship where Kirby Smart is played on loop saying "we've got better players" and Oregon wins the game on a last second, long-distance field goal.