What Are Your REALISTIC Expectations for Next Year?

[cartm25]

I did not emphasize "realistic" in the topic title to imply that there's only one correct view.

 

To satiate my curiosity for this discussion, I have a request of YOU:  Please throw out your "highest hopes" AND "worst fears" for the Ducks next season, and tell us on the OBD Forum what you realistically expect regarding the following:

 

- Win / Loss Regular Season Record (12 games)

- Offense Points / Game

- Bowl Game / P-12 Championship / CFP (or some combination of the three)

- Defensive performance / improvement / regression

- Offensive performance / improvement / regression

- Wins / Losses against key P-12 competition (e.g., USC, Utah, UW, Beavers, etc.)

 

Here's my take on the above. My realistic predictions account for the likelihood that some of the following may occur: injuries, bad games, inexperience at certain position groups, new coaches' scheme implementation and development, questionable coaching decisions etc.

 

- 9-3 - The Ducks were .500 against the P-12 teams they played last year that finished with a winning record. Tough games are @ UW, @ Utah, USC, and Beavers. I think the Ducks will go 2-2 against those teams. I picked a 3rd loss to account for new OC/system, OL development, and potential injuries . . . or just a fluke, head-scratching game or coaching decision. 

 

- 35 PPG - I think there will be some expected growing pains from a new offensive system (though not completely different from KD's) and some OL development. 

 

- Bowl Game / P-12 Championship Appearance - I have a nagging feeling that all the teams I mentioned above will be better this year, and that the quality of teams in the conference will prevent a P-12 participant in the CFP. Given experience and continuity, I see USC and Utah as the frontrunners, again, for the P-12 Championship.

 

- Just realized that 2 offensive topics above sort of overlap. One last comment here. I believe the offense will have some road bumps early on, but the Ducks' schedule lines up so their tough opponents are in the second half of the season. Should be able to work any issues out by then.

 

- Defense will improve. - It can't get worse, right? I expect to see improvement now that Lanning has his guys, and with the investment in the DL, I anticipate more "havoc" and sacks.

 

- Key Losses: UW and USC     /     Key Wins: Utah and Beavers

[Jon Joseph]

10-2.

[OhioDuck]

I'm going to go with:

10-2  but there are some if's. 

37-40 ppg

P12 Championship, New Years Day Bowl, 2 losses won't make the play offs next year.

I think the D will improve. Lanning has brought in some good talent ready to play in his system. 

The offense is going to be even better, with one possible hickup being the O line. If the new coach comes in and the guys gel together the O line can be really good, that still has to happen. 

Wins: USC, Utah, Washington

Loses: OSU, just a feeling the Beavers are for real and going to be better than last year. Then there will be one head scratcher, at Stanford, At ASU, WASU...

[Drake]

PAC 12 is going to be difficult to go through unscathed. If all the conference QBs stay healthy it is going to be a shootout. There could be 3 maybe 4 teams in the top 25, with possibly 2 in the top ten. 

 

I have to go with 10 wins as my optimistic forecast. 
 

My unrealistic expectation is that our defense vaults into a top 20 ranking and we win every game. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/7/2023 at 1:59 PM, Jon Joseph said:

10-2.

To expand without, hopefully, over-expounding, next season's schedule is a witch. Texas Tech will be a preseason-ranked top-25 team. Ditto for UW (could be top 10?) and Utah, two tough places to play. Drawing USC is not a good break and Oregon State if DJU improves? Watch out.

 

Plus tripping to the desert to play Dilly's wholly rebuilt team will not be easy. CU? Who knows what Prime will be bringing to Eugene? CAL and Stanford should be lay-ups but also play hard against the Ducks.

 

And, Bo Nix has to stay healthy so he can run the entire O including RPOs. No real experience behind Nix.

 

 

[GODUCKS15]

Let down season. 

 

9-3 missing the P12 champ game.

 

Losses to UW, Ore St and USC. 

 

Need to see some improvement on D before I go 10-2. 

 

No P12 team makes the CFP.

 

On the plus side I'm usually wrong.

[JDuck]

Can't disagree with all of the above, but 13-0 is possible.

Offense I think will be even better.

Defense couldn't be much worse, I think there will be a lot of improvement

Special teams, same thing

BUT...very young team, will have mistakes, but veterans on Offense (Nix and others) will be a plus, Transfers on D bring experience, it's just how fast can they gel, and same with O-line, new O-line coach

Pac 12 will be good except for the officiating and TV deal

UW and Utah on the road is tough, especially for a young team but we have the talent, and I think DL will have grown as a coach

UW in Seattle = revenge, USuC at Autzen = wild.  Beav rats too, at home.

9-3 is possible, hopefully not worse.  TTU in Lubbock no cake walk.  10-2 likely, which could still be in the Pac12 CG, win that and it's Rose Bowl.  11-2, 11-1, 12-1...all possible.  

Playoffs?  Playoffs?  Yes, but would that be an embarrassing loss, or would a Rose Bowl win be more fun?

 

'23 is going to be fun.  I have my defibrillator charging up now...

[Log Haulin]

Ask again after the spring game and 2nd portal. As a fan, for now I will say... 12-0, 42 ppg, defensively 22 ppg

[DanLduck]

Realistically, 8 - 4.

Possibly 10 - 2.

 

With the improved QB situation in the Pac, there should be a lot of shoot outs and I don't have the confidence in our defense showing enough improvement. 

 

It was a complete bafflement to me that we didn't leave our cover 2 against the Beavs in the 2nd half. Making in-game adjustments, or the lack there of, leaves me thinking we need another year of development, for players and coaches.

 

I think our offense will stay hot and score bunches of points. With Bo returning, he will learn whatever tweaks the new OC brings and handle it brilliantly. We have depth and greatness at WR and RB, and enough talent at TE to be formidable. 

 

I just don't see the D keeping all the games close enough. If the D can get consistent qb pressure and the LB's can make the correct reads, then we make the 10 wins.

 

I do think we beat UW and the Beavs this year, but lose to Utah and ?

 

It's definitely going to be great football as most every team has improved from last year. And look at all the high profile QB's!!

Probably will need to bet the "over" in every game. 

[1Funduck]

2023 won't be a down year. Far from it.

 

We lost our games due to poor defense. Utah was an anomoly as Risen wasn't playing top shelf, and yet we still won. We crushed the Beavs but let them come back from a monstrous deficit. Again, Defense.

 

We had no problem with our offense last year and I surmise we will have a wonderful offense again this year. Our defensive personnel has been upgraded remarkably, especially on the line. The entire defense is going to be better due to TP. But, the recruits will help it develop even further. 

 

Oregon goes 13-0 and makes the playoffs. After that it's anyones guess.

Edited February 8, 2023 by 1Funduck

[Haywarduck]

Great topic, Cart25.

 

I think the defense improves, that I have little doubt. The biggest question is Nix, can he stay healthy?

 

If Nix stays healthy, his WR's will put up some incredible numbers and we will see 45+ points per game avg.

 

If Nix gets hurt, we get hurt. We are still in a one good qb situation. None of our qb's have proved anything, other than Nix.

 

I pick us to win everything, if Nix stays healthy, and the best comes about 14-0, Nix wins the Heisman.

 

Nix gets hurt, we go even wins, losses from that point on. 2-6 losses if Nix goes down. Nix is that important, right now.

 

Maybe I am wrong and Stein is a qb whisperer, I hope I am wrong! I would love to see our qb room become a force, rather than the farce it has been.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Haywarduck

[HappyToBeADuck]

For me, well i have no expectations because there are so many what ifs and unknowns.

 

The PAC will be exciting to watch and follow. When is the last time the PAC had 6 teams who could win 10 games in the same season? 

 

I am confident the PAC will cannibalize itself. Key injuries can happen at anytime and cost a team a key game.

 

I have very little confidence in the D. Period! While i feel they will improve over the 22 squad, i am not certain it will make a difference. The PAC will field a lot of NFL talent at QB. No margin for weak defensive efforts.

 

With Bo healthy and running the show this team can go 11-1 with a loss to the Utes. 12-1 with a win over the huskies in the title game.

 

If Bo goes down, all bets are off. Do we have a QB who can come off the bench and get in a shoot out with the Williams, Penix, Rising or others?

No.......

 

Without Bo, 7-5 or 8-4. The Ducks have 5 years of top PAC recruiting classes to field. But leadership both on the sidelines and out on the field are critical. Can't wait for the spring game.......

 

I am confident in DL, his staff and Bo. It will be a season full of ups and downs and everything in between.

[mikethehiker]

I'm so excited for the ridiculous amount of talent returning to the PAC-12 next year.  EVERY possession will matter.  Our success will largely depend on the health of Bo Nix and defensive improvement.  U$C, Washington, Utah, Oregon St., and Oregon could all make a run, but the PAC-12 Champion will be the one with the best defensive unit from those five.

 

Best case is 12-1.  No one is running the table in this conference next year, but a 12-1 PAC-12 champion will make the playoff.

Worst case is 8-4 with a phantom loss (I've attended the last two Sun Devil stadium losses).  Could be worse if Nix is injured mid-season and defense doesn't improve.

 

I think we easily score 42 ppg with a healthy Nix, especially without Georgia on the schedule.  We'll need every single point.

 

Our losses will come at Washington or Utah (maybe both) with ASU on standby.  I can't see our defense improving enough that quickly to stop Penix Jr. or Rising on the road (hope I'm wrong).  If we win both of those games it will be because Bo Nix is winning the Heisman Trophy.

[mikethehiker]

Forgot to add that we'll be -15 on targeting calls again.

[Charles Fischer]

10-2 with losses at Washington and it is very, very hard to win in SLC against the Utes.  Catch an 11th win in a bowl, and that is my dream.

 

But the Pac-12 teams

will tweak each other....

[Tandaian]

I think the Pac 12 is returning a lot of talented QBs, but maybe only Williams will last past their NFL rookie contract.  If Risen, Nix and Penix were for sure NFL caliber QBs, they would have left for the NFL.  Yes, there are some QBs with for sure NFL talent that come back when they could go, but it isn't those 3 QBs.  Maybe, I'm wrong and all three play 10+ years in the NFL.

[DanLduck]

On 2/8/2023 at 7:54 AM, Tandaian said:

I think the Pac 12 is returning a lot of talented QBs, but maybe only Williams will last past their NFL rookie contract.  If Risen, Nix and Penix were for sure NFL caliber QBs, they would have left for the NFL.  Yes, there are some QBs with for sure NFL talent that come back when they could go, but it isn't those 3 QBs.  Maybe, I'm wrong and all three play 10+ years in the NFL.

You may be right, but all these guys are great at this level now. Wins will be decided by which ever team has the ball last.