A Way Too Early Not Overly Optimistic Look At Oregon's 2021 Football Season

[30Duck]

This WTE prediction has more rational thought involved than something usually based on feelings and hope. It is a prediction so nothing can be wrong, except you have to get Nov. 6 right. From 247sports.com

 

[FishIceCream]

This seems like a good baseline prediction to me, although I wouldn't be surprised if the Ducks win one of those "predicted loss" games and get upset in one game they should win.

 

From an education perspective dealing with rubrics, 9 regular season wins seems like "meets expectations" next year. 10+ exceeds expectations, while 8 or less "needs improvement" - or worse!

 

As for the writer's comment about this perhaps being the "most challenging non-conference game in program history," I'd point to the '85 and '86 games at Nebraska - I think the disparity in talent was much greater then.

[Hooger]

Why does Oregon schedule a highly rated team in preseason?  Usually winds up with them having no chance in a national title.

[30Duck]

16 minutes ago, Hooger said:

Why does Oregon schedule a highly rated team in preseason? 

 

 It's definitely risk-reward, and so far Oregon has taken the risk but hasn't reaped the reward from, LSU, Auburn and tOSU twice.  The games against tOSU at least was supposed to be a home and home. It could be said that with tOSU they have less to gain with a win than does Oregon. 

[Charles Fischer]

1 hour ago, FishIceCream said:

I'd point to the '85 and '86 games at Nebraska - I think the disparity in talent was much greater then.

 

Absolutely, by a mile.  We will be in the game at Columbus, where we had no chance against those Cornhusker teams that crunched everybody...

[30Duck]

6 minutes ago, Charles Fischer said:

We will be in the game at Columbus, where we had no chance against those Cornhusker teams that crunched everybody...

 

1985: Nebraska won, 63-0, 1986, it wasn't as bad, Nebraska 48-14. 

[Foursport1of1]

Playoffs or bust. We have too much talent now to not atleast make the playoffs. Winning it will be a different discussion.

[RatherBe]

While a 9-3 record is certainly realistic, I felt that was overly doom and gloom while reading. This defense has the potential to be closer to 2019 than 2020 - and even the 2020 version found their footing late in the year. I don’t see them allowing so many points. I also have faith in Joe Moorhead’s offense, in this mini season he showed the explosive play potential that creates blowouts, had the turnover margin not been historically bad it would have been a different narrative. When you’re favored in 11/12 preseason even 9-3 seems disappointing. 

Edited March 7, 2021 by RatherBe

[Haywarduck]

So much is unknown that to predict is just to do what the root dict means, say. All you are doing is saying something, without much behind it.

 

Oregon has talent, but little is proven beyond you need to plan for Thibs. How the rest of the defense will play out, or will the offense start to click, who knows?

 

I know I could predict, but that would be redundant, as my green and yellow glasses see the same thing, always.

[Southern Duck]

If we lose by under 10 in Columbus and drop one in the PAC, while winning a 3rd  conference championship, I see us in the playoff.  We beat the Buckeyes, we could lose two in the PAC and still make the playoffs. 

[nogerO]

• Laying down my green glasses:
•  
• Sept. 4 vs. Fresno State  W 1-0
• Sep. 11 at Ohio State  L 1-1
• Sep. 18 vs. Stony Brook  W 2-1
• Sep. 25 vs. Arizona  W 3-1
• Oct. 2 at Stanford (Toss up)   L/W 4-1 or 3-2
• Oct. 15 vs. California  W 5-1 or 4-2
• Oct. 23 at UCLA L  5-2 or 4-3
• Oct. 30 vs. Colorado W  6-2 or 5-3
• Nov. 6 at Washington (Toss up)  L/W 7-2 or 5-4
• Nov. 13 vs Washington State W 8-2 or 6-4
• Nov. 20 at Utah — L  8-3 or 6-5 
•  

This might be unpopular, but unless the Ducks find a QB in a hurry and an O line to protect him it could be rough.  I have a couple games as toss ups, that could go either way.  I think 6-5 at worst and 8-3 as best. I'm hoping our D coordinator is as advertised and maybe those toss ups go our way?  It's a  long time until then so lets just call it a hunch? 

 

I think this season will define the future at Oregon for Mario Cristobal. I know a lot of you are totally on the MC bandwagon, but I still see some red flags.  Back up the recruiting bravado and win the Pac-12 again, improve in game decisions and be the CEO,  I think he's here for a while.  Mediocre season and refusing to let Moorhead call the plays and IMHO,  he's looking for employment in a couple years.  Again, just my two cents.

 

GO Ducks!!!

Edited March 7, 2021 by nogerO

[Charles Fischer]

14 minutes ago, nogerO said:

I think this season will define the future at Oregon for Mario Cristobal.

 

Agreed.  Will Oregon play to it's potential?  Or will we lose to teams we should not?  So many questions and that drama is part of great entertainment that is fun to watch...

[BigDucksFan]

2 hours ago, Southern Duck said:

If we lose by under 10 in Columbus and drop one in the PAC, while winning a 3rd  conference championship, I see us in the playoff.  We beat the Buckeyes, we could lose two in the PAC and still make the playoffs. 

 

I don't think a 2 loss Pac-12 team will ever be elevated to the playoffs over a 2 loss team from any other P5 conference. 

 

So ask yourself how many other teams in the other P5 conferences will have only 1 or 2 losses ??  More then 4, I would think. (A great article 30Duck, thanks for brining it to us) 

[woundedknees]

7 hours ago, Charles Fischer said:

 

Absolutely, by a mile.  We will be in the game at Columbus, where we had no chance against those Cornhusker teams that crunched everybody...

IIRC correctly, Nebraska (Pre-schollie limit) had something like 3 times the players suited up for the road game in Omaha that Oregon did. There were 3rd stringrs on Nebraska's squad who would have been potential starters for multiple PAC8 teams of the day.

 

One write up by the R-G mentioned the huge disparity in facilities... The entire Duck football complex of the day could have fit in Nebraska's weight room, IIRC.

[David Marsh]

The fact of the matter is that Oregon has the talent and potential to win every game in their schedule.

 

Yes, including Ohio State though I'm on the side that it is unlikely Oregon beats ohio state in the second game of the season, it is possible for Oregon to do so. 

 

Oregon can and should beat everyone in pac-12 play. Is there the possibility of a slip-up... Yes... But this team needs to play to their potential every single game. 

 

The defense is truly loaded with talent and a new scheme needs to maximize that talent and let them cause chaos. 

 

The offense has a ton of potential and that youth needs to show up. Cristobal and Moorhead need to set that offense loose.

 

Yes, I am saying BOTH coaches are responsible for making this happen. If Moorhead wants amother head Coaching job then he needs to prove that he still has the offense chops to do so, that does mean making sure Cristobal let's him run an offense that can score points on demand. 

 

In the end there are no excuses this year. Oregon out classes 11 out of 12 teams on the schedule this year and they need to prove it. 

 

Side note... After reading the 247sports predictions for years now I truly believe they pick the games that may have the biggest risk and make them as Oregon losses. More to prove they are not Oregon homers and can achieve an independent thought ... Unlike our purple neighbors to the north who cannot accept the notion they may actually lose a game. 

[nogerO]

Washington has been named pre-season champions of the Pac-12 again this year...

 

 

[BigDucksFan]

59 minutes ago, nogerO said:

Washington has been named pre-season champions of the Pac-12 again this year...

 

 

 

Do you know by whom ??  Most polls I've seen show Washington as No. 3 behind Cal at No. 2, and Oregon as No. 1, in the North and USC at No. 1 in the South. 

[David Marsh]

9 hours ago, nogerO said:

Washington has been named pre-season champions of the Pac-12 again this year...

 

 

 

Good... We can savior those Husky tears when they lose to Oregon again... When Oregon has to play washington at Washington ... Again. 

 

We will all just remember who the Pac-12 champions are, even with a dumb system last year. 

[Tandaian]

There is always a 1st time, but no team has made the playoffs with 2 losses.  That is a ton of chaos if multiple teams are being looked at for the playoffs with 2 losses.

 

In 2016 Penn St. won the B1G TEN with 2 losses and didn't get in.  They beat tOSU, but since tOSU only had 1 loss, they got in over Penn St.  

 

The committee says they look at everything, but in reality it is the number of losses they look at first for Power 5 teams.  If you have zero, you are in.  If you have 1 loss and there aren't 4 teams with 0 losses, you get a look.

 

If you have 2 losses, there can't be 4 teams with 0 or 1 loss from a Power 5 conference.

[David Marsh]

4 hours ago, Tandaian said:

There is always a 1st time, but no team has made the playoffs with 2 losses.  That is a ton of chaos if multiple teams are being looked at for the playoffs with 2 losses.

 

In 2016 Penn St. won the B1G TEN with 2 losses and didn't get in.  They beat tOSU, but since tOSU only had 1 loss, they got in over Penn St.  

 

The committee says they look at everything, but in reality it is the number of losses they look at first for Power 5 teams.  If you have zero, you are in.  If you have 1 loss and there aren't 4 teams with 0 losses, you get a look.

 

If you have 2 losses, there can't be 4 teams with 0 or 1 loss from a Power 5 conference.

 

Losses are the determining factor absolutely. Losses count more than wins.

 

It doesn't matter who you beat only who you lost to.

[Duck 1972]

Only if your on the west coast. The pac is always under ranked. We have toughest league schedule with 9 games.

Why don't we do like sec acc big 10 and only play 8 it gives them an advantage the big 12 and us are only league to play 9.

And it sure seems the other leagues only play 1 away non conference every other yr or is that only the Alabama tOSU Oklahoma s of the world

[30Duck]

4 hours ago, Tandaian said:

 

The committee says they look at everything

 

The looking the Committee does is the, "eye test". There is no official criteria,  though winning your conference seems like it should check a box, but no. Penn St. beats tOSU, wins the conference, tOsu gets in. If Clemson had lost twice to Notre Dame this last season, they would have got in. 

[nogerO]

11 hours ago, BigDucksFan said:

 

Do you know by whom ??  Most polls I've seen show Washington as No. 3 behind Cal at No. 2, and Oregon as No. 1, in the North and USC at No. 1 in the South. 

 

Sorry I didn't use the sarcasm button.  They self proclaim the hussies pre-season champions in Seattle every year and have been doing so for many years.  Delusional bunch up there...

[FishIceCream]

17 hours ago, woundedknees said:

There were 3rd stringrs on Nebraska's squad who would have been potential starters for multiple PAC8 teams of the day.

I remember listening to one of those games on the radio heading to the beach in the back seat of my parent's Datsun 5-10. We sounded good on the first drive, but it was all downhill from there haha.

 

Thinking of those days gives me a 'my how the mighty have fallen' feeling. In some ways, maybe the Ducks are the Nebraska of this era.

 

It never made much sense they were so good just looking at their population base in-state.

[Southern Duck]

A Buckeye win there....  is worth a dump truck of gold to the pollsters!  We could trip against WSU and UCLA by a "respectable" margin still win the  PAC and that OSU win jumps  us into the discussion no matter what. OSU hasn't lost at home in what a  decade? 

[Mike West]

On 3/7/2021 at 2:51 PM, RatherBe said:

While a 9-3 record is certainly realistic, I felt that was overly doom and gloom while reading. This defense has the potential to be closer to 2019 than 2020 - and even the 2020 version found their footing late in the year. I don’t see them allowing so many points. I also have faith in Joe Moorhead’s offense, in this mini season he showed the explosive play potential that creates blowouts, had the turnover margin not been historically bad it would have been a different narrative. When you’re favored in 11/12 preseason even 9-3 seems disappointing. 

 

The Spring Game (and hopefully two scrimmages we should get to see) will tell me everything I’ll need to know.  Unfortunately, most coaches don’t change much.  They just don’t know how to take the simple things  about football, and beat guys that cling to their ego clad philosophy of football.

 

Even Saban has weaknesses.  He just adapts faster than everybody.  Too many coaches believe they are the best thing life ever saw.  I believe Saban is great because he shreds every weakness an opponent coaching staff has.  Something I haven’t seen from Cristobal yet.

 

The thing I like about Cristobal is he will open the floodgates if he believes everything is on the line.  That’s what he did in both conference title games.  He let it rip.  Believing he had to try everything because his opponent was formidable enough that he needed to. He was willing to lose by putting everything on the line, and both times they dominated the game.  Put that philosophy in a bottle MC, open it every week,  and you just might go undefeated and win a damn national title.

 

 

[David Marsh]

13 hours ago, Mike West said:

The thing I like about Cristobal is he will open the floodgates if he believes everything is on the line.  That’s what he did in both conference title games.  He let it rip.  Believing he had to try everything because his opponent was formidable enough that he needed to. He was willing to lose by putting everything on the line, and both times they dominated the game.  Put that philosophy in a bottle MC, open it every week,  and you just might go undefeated and win a damn national title.

 

That is the way you really need to approach every game. Play to win and not play to not lose. 

 

The Fiesta Bowl this year really felt like a play to not lose... Coupled with a heap of indecisiveness of what they actually wanted to do with the quarterback position. 

 

Need to always play to win and if you lose in the process so be it ... But playing to not lose will end in a loss more often than not. 

[Mike West]

On 3/7/2021 at 3:37 PM, nogerO said:

• Laying down my green glasses:
•  
• Sept. 4 vs. Fresno State  W 1-0
• Sep. 11 at Ohio State  L 1-1
• Sep. 18 vs. Stony Brook  W 2-1
• Sep. 25 vs. Arizona  W 3-1
• Oct. 2 at Stanford (Toss up)   L/W 4-1 or 3-2
• Oct. 15 vs. California  W 5-1 or 4-2
• Oct. 23 at UCLA L  5-2 or 4-3
• Oct. 30 vs. Colorado W  6-2 or 5-3
• Nov. 6 at Washington (Toss up)  L/W 7-2 or 5-4
• Nov. 13 vs Washington State W 8-2 or 6-4
• Nov. 20 at Utah — L  8-3 or 6-5 
•  

This might be unpopular, but unless the Ducks find a QB in a hurry and an O line to protect him it could be rough.  I have a couple games as toss ups, that could go either way.  I think 6-5 at worst and 8-3 as best. I'm hoping our D coordinator is as advertised and maybe those toss ups go our way?  It's a  long time until then so lets just call it a hunch? 

 

I think this season will define the future at Oregon for Mario Cristobal. I know a lot of you are totally on the MC bandwagon, but I still see some red flags.  Back up the recruiting bravado and win the Pac-12 again, improve in game decisions and be the CEO,  I think he's here for a while.  Mediocre season and refusing to let Moorhead call the plays and IMHO,  he's looking for employment in a couple years.  Again, just my two cents.

 

GO Ducks!!!

I believe Stanford is toast.  They aren’t recruiting like they used to.  I don’t believe the Coaching is up to par either.  As far as tOSU, it hinges on MC.  Is  he willing to go for broke?  He wins those games.  Utah? Not sure. UCLA? Depends on their defense, and again MC(does the guy realize he needs to score 500 points to win?).

 

Every week is going to be about MC.  Does he unleash the hounds, or does he believe his dogs are fighting in a junk yard? 
 

Mario Cristobal has yet to figure out blowouts are the Obi Wan Kenobi of the PAC12.  Even in his playing days Miami had to win shootouts.  I think we need a coach whisperer.

[30Duck]

11 hours ago, David Marsh said:

Coupled with a heap of indecisiveness of what they actually wanted to do with the quarterback position. 

 

 This I think was the tangible problem, maybe causing in part the idea of "playing not to lose". When a team goes into  a game as shaky as Oregon was at QB, especially in a NY6 Bowl, the chance of winning is reduced greatly.